We are in a crisis in the evolution of human society. It’s unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can’t possibly happen again. Albert Bates, author of The Financial Collapse Survival Guide and Cookbook, brings you along on his personal journey.
"Two years’ average rainfall fell in just three days. Permaculture came to their rescue."
The scenes following extreme rainfall events
in Kerr County Texas, Cape Town South Africa, Kazakhstan, Hunan and
Sichuan China, Venezuela, Austria, and New South Wales are apocalyptic.
On July 4th, the Guadalupe River at Kerrville rose 31 feet in 90
minutes, sweeping away recreational campgrounds and summer camps along
the river.
The Jin River, flowing through Chengdu, originates from the Dujiangyan
Irrigation System and is a tributary of the Min River. Image at left is
from 2018 by Albert Bates. The image at right is July 4, 2025, from
Chengdu Expat News.
After watching one of the videos from Western China, I recalled
conducting a month-long course in ecovillage design at the UNESCO Rural
Development Center in Chengdu in September 2018. I paid ~$615 for food
and boarding for 28 days.
In March 2018, the Chinese Constitution
was amended to add “the building of an ecological civilization” to the
duties and powers of every State Council, so my team from the Global
Ecovillage Network was invited to Sichuan to show young engineers and
designers how to achieve this. I reported at the time.
I have never been fond of cities, but if you had to live in a Chinese megacity, you could do worse than Chengdu. It is the capital of Sichuan Province so you know the food is going to be good. It has been sobriqueted at one time or another as “The God-favored Land,” “Hibiscus City,” “Brocade City,” “Civilized City,” “Garden City,” “World Gastronomic Capital,” and “Model City for Environmental Protection,” whose biggest sightseer draws are the wild herds of pandas. It is also home to 16 million permanent residents, has 20 districts (former cities and towns it swallowed up somewhere along the millennia), is said by Forbes to be the fastest growing city on Earth, and is expected to remain on that blistering pace for at least the next decade. Apart from the pandas, those are not pluses.
At the invitation of Mr.
Wang Li, Deputy Director of the UNESCO Center, I was taken to a
convention center downtown to speak of ecovillages in the context of
environmental education. It was the 9th annual meeting of the Dujiangyan
International Forum and the theme that year was “Harmonizing
Urban-rural Education Development in the Context of Education 2030.” I
honestly expected most of the speeches to be real snoozers, given titles
like “Let Education Be Implanted with the Green Heart and Share the
Beautiful Earth,” but I was in for a real surprise. The first talk, by
the deputy director of an academic committee of a prominent Chinese
university, had me hanging on every word.
Eco-Civilization
In China, more wind turbines and solar panels were installed last year than in the rest of the world combined. And China’s clean energy boom is going global. Chinese companies are building electric vehicle and battery factories in Brazil, Thailand, Morocco, Hungary and beyond.
At the same time, in the United States, President Trump is pressing Japan and South Korea to invest “trillions of dollars” in a project to ship natural gas to Asia. General Motors just killed plans to make electric motors at a factory near Buffalo, N.Y., and instead will put $888 million into building V-8 gasoline engines there. And this week Congress rewrote American energy policy to strongly favor fossil fuels over cleaner alternatives like solar, wind and EVs.
—The New York Times, July 5, 2025
Wen Tiejun had every right to be outspoken. As
a teenager at the time of the Cultural Revolution, he was yanked from
school and sent out to a gruesome life of menial labor on a remote
collective farm, along with his parents, who were being punished for
being intellectuals. Many of the presenters prepared talks on bringing
rural students into the digital age, or using cyber enhancements to
improve pedagogy. Wen called that moving from a colonial knowledge
system to a neocolonial exploitative system. It is the old paradigm of
“development-ism,” he said: “colonization, overproduction,
overconsumption, capitalization of the economy.”
According
to Wen, developed countries were going all over the world paying vast
sums in “foreign aid” to “propagate the crisis.” It was the same
mentality that brought about World War II, he said. First, you build
massive arsenals so you can build massive industrial infrastructure,
then you have to use it, destroy it, and build newer and bigger
replacements. “We need a decolonial policy,” he demanded, taking
indirect aim at Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative. He told the
assembly that if you want rural revitalization, you need to put the
culture back into agriculture. You need ecological agriculture, farmer
rights, and a bottom-up love for environmental sustainability.
He ticked off the list of recent Chinese government slogans:
Integrate Urban and Rural (2002)
Scientific Development (2004)
A Harmony Society (2004)
Multifunction Agriculture (2006)
Eco-Civilization (2007)
Inclusive Growth (2009)
“If
you want to put meaning into meaningless slogans,” he said, “think
about an eco-civilization that means local resource sovereignty,
multidiversity solidarity, and sustainable ecological safety.” What
China was doing instead, he complained, was adopting an Anglo-American
model of very destructive neocolonialism that destroys the fabric of
culture, soils and health. “Modernization is a trap.”
Giving an example, he said the East Asian Land Reform initiative went
from ideals of Confucius (good governance arises from good-hearted
people) and community stability to the largest percentage of the
population becoming petty bourgeois and omni-destructive consumerists.
What was cast as land reform ended up destabilizing Asia—most
dramatically India—separating rich and poor, pushing a third of the
population into landless, jobless poverty, threatening two thirds of the
states with growing insurrections, and making 90 percent of those who
counted themselves employed no more than slaves of an unstable grey
economy, all the while accelerating pollution, land degradation and
climate change.
Wen shows strawbale houses being built by volunteers as an example of
what rural China needs more of. I was looking around the room and
trying to see if anyone else was as dumbstruck as I was, but they
applauded Wen’s candor. This is not your daddy’s China anymore. UNESCO
Office Director of the International Training Center for Rural Education
Zhao Yuchi, seated next to me, leaned over and said, “We are the people
who are eating the first crabs.”
Taking advantage of an app on WeChat, I rented
an e-bike and followed some of the bike paths along the river. The site
and name have remained unchanged since at least the time Chengdu became
the capital for the 9th Kaiming King of the Shu 2300 years ago. As
recently as 2100 years ago, it had its first school, called Shishi
(“thank you”) built by Governor Wen Weng. According to legend, around
the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty (25–220), Zhang Daoling, later known
as Celestial Master Zhang Tianshi, cultivated and preached the way of
the Tao on Mt. Qingcheng, now revered as the birthplace of Taoism.
Contrast that placid river bank then with the scenes coming via YouTube now:
The Fish’s Mouth
Near the UNESCO Center in Dujiangyan
is a historic site that I have often described in these posts as an
early permaculture example. It is called the Fish’s Mouth (鱼嘴).
Originally
constructed around 256 BC by King Zhaoxiang (秦æ˜è¥„王) of Qin, the
earthworks are still in use today. Especially today. During the Warring
States period over 2,250 years ago, people who lived in the area of the
Min River were plagued by annual flooding. Despite the fertile soils of
the valley floor, life was an endless struggle to provide. No sooner was
the rice ready to harvest than the Min River would rush down from the
steep Western mountains, slow abruptly upon reaching the Chengdu Plain,
drop its mud, and make disastrous floods.
The royal hydrologist
Li Bing investigated the problem and discovered that the river was
swollen by fast-flowing spring meltwater from the local mountains that
burst the banks when it reached the slow-moving and heavily silted
stretch below. One solution would have been to build a dam, but
fortunately, the King lacked an Army Corps of Engineers to advise him.
Instead, all he had were Taoist priests. They said, Do not fight the
water, bend it.
In just four years, using tens of thousands of villagers, Zhao
and Li constructed a water-diversion levee resembling a fish’s mouth,
using long, sausage-shaped baskets of woven bamboo filled with stones
(known as zhulong) held in place by wooden tripods (known as macha).
Next, Zhao and Bing cut a deep channel to one side of the island. This
was before the invention of gunpowder, and normally, cutting through the
hard mountain granite with hand tools would have taken decades. But Li
Bing invented a method of using fire and water to rapidly heat and cool
the rocks, causing them to crack and allowing them to be easily removed.
I had seen a similar technique used by Incan builders. After eight
years of such work, a 20-meter (66 ft)-wide channel had been gouged
through the gorge, dividing the river into two sides of a central
island. In this way, Zhao’s engineers could allow floodwaters to escape
harmlessly to the center of the mouth while taming the channels to
either side for irrigation. In the center channel, a dam could be opened
and closed in season, diverting more water to irrigation as needed.
Thanks for reading The Great Change! This post is public so feel free to share it.
After the system was finished, no more floods occurred. The
irrigation made Sichuan the most productive agricultural region in
China. The construction is also credited with giving the people of
Sichuan a laid-back attitude to life and a taste for spicy food. It
eliminated a constant disaster, ensured a predictably bountiful harvest,
and left the Kingdom of Min with plenty of free time to engage in
pleasure-filled leisure.
Zhao and Bing harnessed the river not by
damming it, but by dividing it. They spread it, slowed it, sank it, and
stored it. Millions visit the Dujiangyan Fish’s Mouth still today, to
watch it renew by rain, gravity, and the weight of water as it irrigates
over 2,000 square miles (5,300 km2) of high dry plains. In 2000,
Dujiangyan became a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
A Walk Through the Book of Revelation
So what happened this year? In
mid-June, even as the east coast baked under a scorching sun, China’s
western interior was welcoming its annual Plum Rains —the seasonal
monsoon. It came not as expected. Torrential downpours lashed northern
Hunan Province, particularly the Xiangxi and Zhangjiajie regions. Rivers
swelled beyond historical records.
When we speak of
China’s historical records, we are in a whole different league than with
the records of weather services in Western nations. We are not speaking
of centuries, but of millennia. In 2025, water inundated homes and
businesses, with at least three people losing their lives in Zhangjiajie
when an underground parking garage flooded rapidly. Over 400,000
residents were affected and nearly 95,000 displaced as landslides and
floodwaters swept through in mid-June.
Days passed. The rains
intensified and moved westward. Guizhou Province’s Rongjiang County was
next to face disaster. Between June 20 and June 29, two waves of
torrential rain battered the area. The first wave peaked on June 21,
driving the Duliu River to its highest level since records began in
1954. The second surge struck on June 28, submerging the county’s town
center and local landmarks—the Changchi Plaza and the “Village Super
League” football field—under meters of water. More than 120,000 people
were evacuated and six lives were lost as mud blanketed the streets and
cars piled atop one another.
By late June, intense monsoon rains
combined with a tropical depression that made landfall on Hainan Island,
then swept inland toward Guangdong and Guangxi. Rivers overflowed,
landslides tore through hillsides, and entire buildings collapsed as
waterlogged soil gave way. In Guangxi, a five-story building under
construction crumbled into the Lengshui River.
The disaster’s reach then extended north and west. By early July, the
rains had marched from Sichuan through Gansu and up to Liaoning,
prompting red alerts and mass mobilization of emergency personnel. In
Henan’s Taiping town, a river burst its banks, killing five and leaving
three missing.
On July 3, Chengdu experienced an intense rainstorm
— more than 170 mm (6.7 inches) within a few hours — that led to
catastrophic flooding. Water levels in streets reached knee to waist
height. Some residents deployed kayaks. At Chengdu East Railway Station,
passengers had to wade from their trains. The subway system flooded.
Bridges over the Mang River tributary were overtopped and collapsed,
isolating some. Early reports are that at least 150 people were killed
and more than 500 injured, but rescue and evacuation efforts are still
underway, complicated by ongoing poor weather.
Permaculture to the Rescue
In order to understand how the Mongolian Plateau affected the North China region hundreds of kilometers away, researchers utilized their developed integrated Atmospheric Model Across Scales (iAMAS) model. Together with the support of China’s new Sunway supercomputer, researchers precisely simulated and reproduced the extreme rainfall process. The simulation results were highly consistent with actual observations in terms of rainfall distribution, intensity, and spatiotemporal evolution.
The rapid warming of the air (middle atmosphere) over the Mongolian Plateau acted like a "heater", promoting the formation of an abnormally strong and stable high-pressure system in the region. The air had developed and connected with the Western North Pacific Subtropical High. In the end, a high-pressure system over the North China region was formed.
The system hindered the remnant circulation of the Doksuri carrying water vapor from continuing its northward or eastward journey, trapping it for a long time in the region in front of the Taihang Mountains in North China.
The intercepted water vapor, under the continuous uplift effect of the Taihang Mountains terrain, was forced to converge and rise, leading to rainfall being concentrated and poured in a narrow area for a long time, ultimately resulting in a record-breaking extreme rainstorm disaster.
—University of Science and Technology of China, “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility” (EarthLab). The study
used computing resources from the Supercomputing Center of the USTC and
the Qingdao Supercomputing and Big Data Center, employing the
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) for high-quality ERA5 data.
Copernicus will soon be discontinued under DOGE and the Beautiful Big Bill Act of 2025.
An
aerial drone photo taken on July 4, 2025 shows a view of Dujiangyan
irrigation system in southwest China's Sichuan Province on the Minjiang
River. This is at the flood peak on Friday. (Photo by He Bo/Xinhua)
The first drone shots of Dujiangyan
show the Fish’s Mouth still working, although at this time of year the
flood gates might normally have been closed to favor the side channels
and the ancient irrigation system. Instead, they were opened wide. That
allowed the central, deeper channel to bear the destructive force of the
Jin. While doubtless many farms were flooded (7 inches of rain in a few
hours!), the 2400-year-old earthworks functioned just as Zhao and Bing
had envisaged they would.
Old Dujiangyan market plaza was spared by 2000-year-old earthworks.
When
the floodwaters came, they rushed to the two sides of the Fish’s Mouth.
The valley side led to a shallow delta of irrigated rice paddies while
the center channel, gouged deep into bedrock, captured the cresting wave
and diverted it downriver. While Chengdu city was unable to absorb that
much, — no city is prepared for that much rain — many Sichuan farms
were saved by clever planning and public works two thousand years
before.
If you enjoy Sichuan cuisine, you may have Zhao and Bing to thank.]
Meanwhile, let’s end these wars. We support peace in the West Bank and Gaza and
the efforts to cease the war in Ukraine immediately. Global Village
Institute’s Peace Thru Permaculture initiative has sponsored the Green
Kibbutz network in Israel and the Marda Permaculture Farm in the West
Bank for over 30 years. It will continue to do so with your assistance.
We aid Ukrainian families seeking refuge in ecovillages and permaculture
farms along the Green Road and work to heal collective trauma
everywhere through the Pocket Project. You can read about it on the
Global Village Institute website (GVIx.org). Thank you for your support.
And speaking of resettling refugees, did you know? A study by Poland’s National Development Bank found that the influx of Ukrainians added between 0.5% and 2.5% to GDP growth and paid more in taxes than they received in benefits.
Could
you help me get my blog posted every week? All Patreon donations and
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are how we make this happen. Your contributions can be made to Global
Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! Donors
on Patreon get an autographed book off each first press run. Please help
if you can.
#RestorationGeneration.
When
humans are locked in a cage, the Earth continues to be beautiful.
Therefore, the lesson for us is that human beings are not necessary. The
air, soil, sky and water are still beautiful without you. So, when you
step out of the cage, please remember that you are guests of the Earth,
not its hosts.
We have a complete solution. We
can restore whales to the ocean and bison to the plains. We can recover
all the tremendous old-growth forests. We possess the knowledge and
tools to rebuild savannah and wetland ecosystems. Coral reefs rebuilt
with biorock build beaches faster than the seas are rising. It is not
too late. All of these great works of nature are recoverable. We can
have a human population sized to harmonize, not destabilize. We can have
an atmosphere that heats and cools just the right amount, is easy on
our lungs and sweet to our nostrils with the scent of ten thousand
flowers. All of that beckons. All of that is within reach.
Thanks for reading The Great Change! This post is public so feel free to share it.
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