The Shogun’s Choice
"Why do we find it so difficult to ban assault rifles in private hands?"
Setting: The court of Shogun Hideyoshi Toyotomi in Osaka Castle, 1588.
Characters:
Hideyoshi - The Taiko, Shogun of Japan
General Yamada - Supreme Samurai General
Miyoko - Senior advisor advocating confiscation of firearms
Tamura - Senior advisor advocating banning firearms
Blackburn - The Portuguese Ambassador
Matashichi - Leader of NMA, the National Matchlock Association
Yoshi - Representative of the matchlock-makers guild
Hideyoshi: I
am troubled by the recent mass murder in a children’s school. It is the
6ooth this year. I invite your counsel regarding firearms spreading
through my realm.
Miyoko: Wise Shogun, please order confiscation of all matchlocks. The peasants cannot be trusted with such weapons.
Tamura: I agree. Ban matchlocks entirely to avoid uprising and unrest.
Matashichi: I would urge caution in your decision, oh great Taiko. Banning matchlocks would destroy many livelihoods. The firearms help peasants defend your lands. They give you added strength against your foreign enemies. None would dare invade us knowing that every family possesses such weapons, which require no special training.
General Yamada: That is exactly the point. No
special training. If I may, great Lord. At Nagashino, Takeda Katsuyori’s
finest samurai charged and were mowed down. Sixteen thousand died.
Where was the honor in that? Lord Odo commanded mere peasants.
Matashichi: These were not mere peasants, my Lord General. Having trained for years for this moment, Oda’s top riflemen could hit the hole of a coin from 500 feet. They could hit a selected target 100 times out of 100. For sport, they would hunt ducks, pheasant and geese and bring them down with a single ball.
Yoshi: At Nagashino, the men in the first rank would be reloaded before the third rank fired. There is as much skill required for the matchlock as for the sword or spear.
Yamada: In the hands of a goshi farmer, even
the mightiest samurai could fall to a cowardly matchlock shot. No true
bushi warrior relies on such dishonorable weapons. Please, wise Shogun,
grant swords alone to the noble samurai, ban guns, and we shall defend
your lands.
Yoshi: As you will see in your villages across the land, great Taiko, the greatest rifle and pistol craftsmen are as much celebrities as the greatest swordsmiths. A fine gun is as honorable as any sword. Matchlocks allow us to protect your rule. Do not disarm your loyal servants!
Blackburn: In the future, nations with fewer and less accurate weapons will bow before nations with more and better weapons.
Hideyoshi: Hmm, important views again. I do not treat this matter lightly.
Miyoko: My Lord, undoubtedly General Yamada counsels well. For the glory of the samurai, prohibit these crude weapons.
Tamura: Indeed, forbid them for the safety of your faithful warriors.
Matashichi: And who may protect the humble peasants from rogue ronin and bandits, great Shogun! We beg you.
Yoshi: Our livelihoods depend on making matchlocks! Have mercy.
Blackburn:
Esteemed Taiko, the quality of your country’s arms matches any in
Europe. There could be lucrative trade with the rest of the world. I
offer gold from my government to build thousands of gun forges and fill
your royal treasury.
There is a moment of quiet reflection, and then the Samurai General speaks.
Yamada: My Lord. One does not get men to lay down their lives easily. In the samurai way, each man’s fate depends on his own ability, honed to katana’s edge by a life of training, ceremony, and clearing the mind of all obstacles. It is the same for the master craftsman who forges a katana. There are moral codes, honor and dishonor.
Hideyoshi (ponders): I have weighed this carefully. Only swords and arrows shall be borne by my warriors. The high samurai families with horses will be allowed pistols. Low samurai will carry only their two swords. Thus the realm shall be balanced. My decision is final.
All: As you decree, wise Shogun! (They bow and exit)
“A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”
— The Second Amendment of the United States Constitution
Not only did 3000 riflemen help win the battle of Nagashino in 1575, but nine years later Ikeda Sen led a musketeer of 200 women to victory at the Battle of Komaki and Nagakute. Japanese gunsmiths, with Portuguese help, were indeed among the best in the world at the start of the 17th century. Nonetheless, following Hideyoshi’s 1588 decree, the gun culture surrendered to hand-to-hand combat, mano a mano. From then until the mid-18th century, firearms were rare.
The shogunate allowed firearms for hunting and self-defense, subject to strict regulations. This is mostly the same in Japan today. In 2022, only nine incidents involving the discharge of firearms were reported in a nation of more than 125 million people. Four were homicides and two of those were due to organized crime.
A Culture of Guns
"It ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them."
—Machiavelli, The Prince (1513)
In Japan, gun license applicants undergo a thorough background check, submit to mental health evaluation, are obligated to take written and shooting range tests, and must renew their license every three years. Those steps are often put forward as remedies to the American gun problem, but I don’t think those small requirements fully explain Japan’s difference.
Clearly, mental health is one factor. Gun murders climbed sharply during the pandemic, increasing 45% between 2019 and 2021. Gun suicides rose 10% during that span. Fatalities among children and teens jumped 50%.
Do violent films and games lead to more actual violence? Apparently not. Alison Young, a professor with expertise in Japanese governance at the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne, told Time magazine, “… guns are present in popular culture; movies, TV, manga, etc.… but there’s a big divide between that and everyday experience.”
Access matters. In 1946, the war occupation government issued a regulatory order banning all gun ownership in Japan. In 1958, the ban was stiffened in response to increased gang activity. Today, it is primarily police who possess guns, and indeed, the only ones who legally can have military-style weapons.
For the sake of brevity, this post has been broken into multiple parts. Next week we will go beyond the usual canards about banning military-style assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, stiffening background checks, or restricting concealed carry. We will look into those societies that don’t even have this problem and ask why is that?
References
Mass News, What to Know About How Rare Gun Violence Is in Japan
Ripple, W.J., Wolf, C., Gregg, J.W., Rockström, J., Newsome, T.M., Law, B.E., Marques, L., Lenton, T.M., Xu, C., Huq, S. and Simons, L., 2023. The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory.
Sharkey, Patrick, and Megan Kang. "The Era of Progress on Gun Mortality: State Gun Regulations and Gun Deaths from 1991 to 2016." Epidemiology 34.6 (2023): 786-792.
Statement from HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra on Passing of HHS Employee Following Atlanta Shooting | HHS.gov.
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that is not a coincidence. Geopolitical conflict and social unrest go
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weather events, food and fresh water shortages, vanishing coastlines,
and novel diseases.
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