tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post4529137135402211752..comments2024-03-27T16:08:30.313-05:00Comments on The Great Change: You Too Can Have a Bigger GraphAlbert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-76271264349115152682016-05-28T11:24:39.052-05:002016-05-28T11:24:39.052-05:00Albert
There is some informative discussion on Ugo...Albert<br />There is some informative discussion on Ugo's blog today (May 28).<br /><br />Also, here is one view of our problem and opportunity. The advantage of this particular view is that it derives from a mathematical model which can be manipulated to give numerical results. The disadvantage of the view is that it is, perhaps misleadingly, precise...which may cause us to trust it more than we should. Nevertheless, I offer it as providing an internally consistent view of how solar and wind and electric vehicles fit into a larger picture...Don Stewart<br /><br />Harquebus quoted on page 1 of these comments<br />“Whenever somebody with a decent grasp of maths and physics looks into the idea of a fully renewables-powered civilised future for the human race with a reasonably open mind, they normally come to the conclusion that it simply isn’t feasible.”<br />http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/<br />We are completely convinced that the above statement is true, but that does not mean that renewables can not be of significant use to modern society. It is not that they can replace fossil fuels, but they could considerably extend their useful life span. That could be as much as a century. At the world’s present consumption rate the oil age will be ending in 13 years, and society will have to pay a very high price to get it there. We are now witnessing the bankruptcy of the Petro-States, and much of the Western world’s petroleum industry. Over the next five years it will become very apparent as to what is happening.<br />Geothermal, wind, tidal power, small hydroelectric, and in some cases solar can replace much of the electricity production of the world. Electricity that is now being supplied from our rapidly depleting fossil fuels. More than 90% of auto trips are less than 25 miles round trip. Well within the range of EV’s. Most of our internal combustion engine usage can be replaced. ICs could be used only for longer trips, and larger vehicles.<br />The amount of petroleum that can be economically converted to finished fuels is now less than 300 Gb, and falling rapidly. The ERoEI of petroleum is now 8.7:1, and at 6.9:1 it will no longer be economically viable to convert the average barrel into finished fuels. The world’s petroleum industry is now attempting to increase production to compensate for its declining ERoEI. It is referred to as maximizing cash flow, when in reality it is because of depletion their barrels can no longer command a price high enough to pay for themselves. The problem lies in the quarterly outlook of business. A geothermal plant may not be economical today, but in five years it is likely to become more than competitive with fossil fuel powered electrical production. But that plant will have to be built BEFORE the fossil fuels needed to construct it have become completely depleted out. It could then save millions of boe to be used for construction of more plants.<br />Over the next decade society will have to provide $trillions to keep the petroleum industry operating. Maybe by then it will begin to recognize that the present state of business is not sustainable in a depletion ravaged fossil fuel world. Then again maybe it will continue to stubble along until it falls into its own self dug hole.<br />http://www.thehillsgroup.org/<br /><br />http://peakoil.com/alternative-energy/the-real-eroi-of-photovoltaic-systems/comment-page-2#comment-267131Don Stewarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05449201744675390686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-14572734949627692512016-05-28T08:18:16.453-05:002016-05-28T08:18:16.453-05:00Albert
What I had in mind with 'applicable to ...Albert<br />What I had in mind with 'applicable to everyone on Earth' relates to this link from Geoff Lawton:<br />http://www.fastcoexist.com/3060167/this-new-neighborhood-will-grow-its-own-food-power-itself-and-handle-its-own-waste/7<br /><br />What we have is a 'sustainable' community which is 40 miles from Amsterdam and seems to me to use a lot of very high tech stuff which may not be available if fossil fuels go away or if global financial Armageddon strikes. In other words, some considerable self-reliance is being attained in a bubble community, but the self-reliance is heavily dependent on continued BAU from the outside world.<br /><br />I have recently been watching Jan Troell's 6 hour extravaganza on Swedish emigrants to the US in the 1850s. Troell is a documentarian and pays a lot of attention to detail. While the emigrants on the Minnesota frontier were clearly more self-reliant than most of us today could ever hope to be, they also benefitted from lifelines to the more civilized world. For example, when they get ready to build a proper house, they are able to purchase framed windows. And they were able to travel across inland waters on paddle wheelers.<br /><br />I believe you have stated that you are of the 'soft landing' persuasion. I BEHAVE as if a soft landing is possible (gardening, etc.), but I see very few of us who seriously try to get along without PVC pipes.<br /><br />IF some wise leader were trying to figure out what sorts of industrial materials we should seriously try to keep available over the next 50 years, PVC pipe might be among them. But if PVC pipe is not a realistic goal, then we need to seriously rethink plumbing and irrigation and such subjects in the industrialized world.<br /><br />Don Stewart Don Stewarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05449201744675390686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-89879124116507849692016-05-27T13:39:18.369-05:002016-05-27T13:39:18.369-05:00Bardi's response to Hall seems strange to me b...Bardi's response to Hall seems strange to me because EROEI is measured in calories and joules not widgets and dollars.<br /><br />"whatever answer we come up with has to be applicable to everyone on Earth" seems to me a non sequitur if the subject is PV. <br /><br />Commerce, health and communications systems can function fine in Guatemala, Cuba or Kenya and would not require either PV or fossil energy to do so.<br /><br />My book, the Financial Collapse Survival Guide and Cookbook, provides a simple transition path. Go to the circuit breakers and turn them off. Same for water and sewer, phone, etc. Get used to that before turning anything back on, or maybe choose not to.<br /><br />This is roughly analogous to The Early Farm. We lasted more than a decade in that mode, although, as you say, we could always sneak away for popcorn and a movie.<br />Albert Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-8507247016755101192016-05-27T06:37:29.227-05:002016-05-27T06:37:29.227-05:00Albert
Relative to the current exchange between Ch...Albert<br />Relative to the current exchange between Charles Hall and Ugo Bardi on the EROEI of solar PV. Hall gives a number between 2 and 3 while Bardi thinks the number is more like 11 or 12. Bardi's response to Hall is that it all depends on what sort of society you are trying to support.<br /><br />http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-05-27/the-real-eroi-of-photovoltaic-systems-professor-hall-weighs-in<br /><br />There is much more discussion on Bardi's website.<br /><br />The thought occurs to me that the early days at The Farm may shed some light on the subject. Or perhaps you know about some more current EcoVillage experience which might be helpful. The key question, as I see it, is 'what type of society are we trying to power with PV and other renewable technologies?' And whatever answer we come up with has to be applicable to everyone on Earth. Which means that it is not a solution to assume, as in the early days at The Farm, that one could simply go out into the 'gentile' world to work for wages and earn money. We have to imagine a new economy and sociology and medical system and so forth which is operating with a much smaller amount of energy. But the current system is a very tightly linked network which evolved in a period of time when energy was plentiful.<br /><br />PV panels are products of a sophisticated, global economy. How would one go about the process of triage...deciding what we need to save and what we can sacrifice...even if we had a political mechanism in place to make such decisions?<br /><br />So I have more of a suggestion than question. Can you shed some light on how we might go about downsizing? Or do you think a collapse plus rebuilding from the rubble is the likely course?<br /><br />Thanks...Don StewartDon Stewarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05449201744675390686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-75189081386238294612016-05-26T17:57:09.339-05:002016-05-26T17:57:09.339-05:00Here are the lyrics of Rebekah Del Rio's a cap...Here are the lyrics of Rebekah Del Rio's a cappella arrangement of the Roy Orbison original (Crying), first translated back into English (having been edited to rhyme in Spanish) and then, for anyone who wants to learn it, in Spanish. It has also been translated into Arabic, Russian and Serbian http://lyricstranslate.com/en/llorando-crying.html-1#songtranslation<br /><br /><br />Llorando<br /><br />I was fine, for a while<br />Smiling once again<br />But then I saw you last night<br />Your hand touched me<br />And the greeting from your voice<br />And I spoke real well<br />And you couldn't tell<br />That I've been<br />Crying for your love<br />Crying for your love<br />Then after your goodbye<br />I felt all of my pain<br />Alone and Crying, Crying, Crying<br />It's not easy to understand<br />That when I see you once again<br />That I'll be crying<br /> <br />And here I thought, that I forgot you<br />But it's true, It's the truth<br />That I love you even more<br />Much more than yesterday<br />Tell me what can I do<br />You don't love me anymore<br />And I'll always be<br />Crying for your love<br />Crying for your love<br />Your love took<br />All of my heart<br />And it was left crying, crying crying<br />For your love<br /><br />Yo estaba bien por un tiempo<br />volviendo a sonreír<br />Luego anoche te vi<br />tu mano me tocó<br />y el saludo de tu voz<br />Y hablé muy bien<br />y tú sin saber<br />que he estado<br />llorando por tu amor<br />llorando por tu amor<br />Luego de tu adiós<br />sentí todo mi dolor<br />Sola y llorando, llorando, llorando<br />No es fácil de entender<br />que al verte otra vez<br />yo esté llorando<br /><br />Yo que pensé que te olvidé<br />pero es verdad, es la verdad<br />que te quiero aun más<br />mucho más que ayer<br />Dime tú que puedo hacer<br />¿No me quieres ya?<br />Y siempre estaré<br />llorando por tu amor<br />llorando por tu amor<br />Tu amor se llevó<br />todo mi corazón<br />Y quedo llorando, llorando, llorando, llorando<br />por tu amorAlbert Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-30844401127184688832016-05-26T17:07:23.138-05:002016-05-26T17:07:23.138-05:00This is a very helpful collection of graphs (thank...This is a very helpful collection of graphs (thanks Albert) - OR a portrait of a civilization on its way out.Alex Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11141662062651853725noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-50491865295415406082016-05-24T00:11:34.297-05:002016-05-24T00:11:34.297-05:00This would be a good time to start dropping acid. ...This would be a good time to start dropping acid. :)<br /><br />Take the new Renewable Energy survey!<br /><br />http://freeonlinesurveys.com/s/Wixv2RMd<br /><br />REReverse Engineerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07062239687986775433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-61113118853300367992016-05-23T11:08:30.556-05:002016-05-23T11:08:30.556-05:00Thanks and apologies for the omission Dex3703. The...Thanks and apologies for the omission Dex3703. The link is <a href="http://www.vidinfo.org/video/15263539/science-bulletins-lake-mead-empty-by-2021" rel="nofollow">American Museum of Natural History Science Bulletins</a>. It reports on a Scripps Inst. study and provides a video of Lake Mead drying up by 2021.<br />Albert Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-62773365564148013742016-05-22T22:39:42.803-05:002016-05-22T22:39:42.803-05:00As always, thank you for this grim work.
Could y...As always, thank you for this grim work. <br /><br />Could you provide a link or reference for the paragraph beginning: Increased temperatures from global warming are decreasing rain and snowfall....dex3703https://www.blogger.com/profile/05045018928899315754noreply@blogger.com