tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15756037316960625532024-03-19T03:47:05.108-05:00The Great ChangeWe are in a crisis in the evolution of human society. It’s unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can’t possibly happen again. Albert Bates, author of The Financial Collapse Survival Guide and Cookbook, brings you along on his personal journey.Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.comBlogger754125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-62428009280707459102024-03-17T06:00:00.001-05:002024-03-17T06:00:00.234-05:00My old dog Quon was killed and baked for his grease<p><a href="">"</a><i>China, with one dog for every 26 people, will have
an easier time halving its herd than Japan or the UK, with one dog for
every six people</i><a href="">"</a></p><p><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/search?q=dogs" rel=""></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX7ddBi-O_MUufDG8fe1yLXt0z4wPUBhDguK4G9ZdB7I1Nwt8Lwv23YPtcM__j7_OQP7Id9ZmpRGioGmc5HIbXiyk_oApJrXVBvat2afyOGYAWMdFozQzQyXQ7aByyPp4iy5VNS-jAu1vLNiWiQWOo7Iacd94y_UIv9fHx6MJQ_vapxeQDysy1LBRJchw2/s2876/oilpasteldogntrashcan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1400" data-original-width="2876" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX7ddBi-O_MUufDG8fe1yLXt0z4wPUBhDguK4G9ZdB7I1Nwt8Lwv23YPtcM__j7_OQP7Id9ZmpRGioGmc5HIbXiyk_oApJrXVBvat2afyOGYAWMdFozQzQyXQ7aByyPp4iy5VNS-jAu1vLNiWiQWOo7Iacd94y_UIv9fHx6MJQ_vapxeQDysy1LBRJchw2/w640-h312/oilpasteldogntrashcan.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><b>Earlier</b><span><b>
I made the detailed and referenced calculation</b> that to reach net zero
and beyond by mid-century and thereby save humanity from climate-induced
extinction, we would need to reduce the global population of domestic
dogs from 1 billion to less than 2.5 million, or about </span><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/search?q=dogs" rel="">one dog for every 300 people</a><span>.
Given that the dog population in many countries greatly exceeds that
ratio, this is no minor undertaking. As recently as 2012, the world
population of dogs was estimated at 525 million. It </span><a href="https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-most-dogs-worldwide.html" rel="">nearly doubled in the past decade</a><span>. Canine population needs to halve now at a rate more than twice as fast.</span><p></p><p><span>Estimating how many dogs there are and how many need to be phased out is not a simple matter because, by </span><a href="https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/how-many-dogs-are-there-in-the-world.html" rel="">some estimates</a><span>,
75 to 85% of worldwide dogs are free-range, feral, or strays having no
family home to go to. So, for instance, the usual number given for India
is 10.2 million dogs. But that is just those included in the census of
family owners. It is estimated that India has 6 times more homeless
street dogs than family pets, so a truer number could be 70.2 million. </span></p><div class="pullquote" style="text-align: left;"><p><span style="font-size: small;"></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote><p><span style="font-size: small;">My old dog Quon was killed and baked for his grease, which yielded 11 lb.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span>—</span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/aug/01/should-we-stop-keeping-pets-why-more-and-more-ethicists-say-yes" rel="">Diary of a Dorset farmer</a><span>, 1698. </span></span></p></blockquote></div><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span></span></span></p></div><p><span>It
will be much harder for some countries than others. China, with one dog
for every 26 people, will have an easier time halving its dog
population than Japan or UK, with one dog for every 6 people. Culled
will be 48 million Pekingese, Chow Chow, Shar Pei, and Tibetan Mastiffs.
By contrast, it is difficult to imagine the pain for dog owners </span><a href="https://financesonline.com/number-of-dogs-in-the-us/" rel="">in the USA </a><span>and
Brazil (1:4). Collectively those three countries will need to shed 21
million best friends. And yet, imagine what Mexicans, living in a nation
with more dogs than people (</span><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2024/01/a-woof-of-debt.html" rel="">146 million to 131 million</a><span>), will have to carry out to save civilization. </span></p><div class="pullquote"><p></p><blockquote>In
1877, the city of New York rounded up 762 stray dogs and drowned them
in the East River, shoving them into iron crates and lifting the crates
by crane into the water.</blockquote><p></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia38JkM7XAf7_2rnIZkZrpHWAXzWMABTB0clwIbsaPN30E-0aCTHkCGTdUd5iIs89tsDxRDvwk8FzCSIQDIRQS9mtak6Lmm6jFy68UAb_uztdKgsFUO3Q7Izv6lqAnlldBNJH3wQb8h5kSio-Tg7yFH7A2CmDHnE3UEQH4uFh3uf1tt0NnWloN54Q7yslz/s1236/dogownershipdemographic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1236" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia38JkM7XAf7_2rnIZkZrpHWAXzWMABTB0clwIbsaPN30E-0aCTHkCGTdUd5iIs89tsDxRDvwk8FzCSIQDIRQS9mtak6Lmm6jFy68UAb_uztdKgsFUO3Q7Izv6lqAnlldBNJH3wQb8h5kSio-Tg7yFH7A2CmDHnE3UEQH4uFh3uf1tt0NnWloN54Q7yslz/s320/dogownershipdemographic.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>Since the average lifespan of a dog is 14 years, the change could be
phased in over time. Nonetheless, governments will need to outlaw puppy
mills and shut down shelter adoptions and rescue dogs. Imagine the
uproar from that.</p><blockquote>I’m sorry for my dog barking. She got up on the kitchen table to watch. She has never done that before. I’ve only had her for a year. She is a rescue dog.<p>—MSNBC Correspondent, live on the air, March 13, 2024<br /><br /></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: left;"></p><blockquote><p style="text-align: left;">During the pandemic, Americans turned to pets for comfort. In a survey, 15% of Americans said that they had acquired a dog during the pandemic in some way, including through a pet shelter, welfare, or rescue organization.</p><p><em><a href="https://financesonline.com/number-of-dogs-in-the-us/" rel="">Petfood Industry</a><span>,</span></em><span> 2021 </span></p></blockquote><p><span></span></p><p>Still,
giving up Fido is not without benefits. Dog owners love their pooches
so much that USAnians spend on average $1,201 on dogs yearly—$16,814
over their lives. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a US
household earning an average income of $94,003 before taxes in 2022
allocated annual spending on average to:</p><ul><li><p>Food at home: $5,703</p></li><li><p>Food away from home: $3,639</p></li><li><p>Apparel and services: $1,945</p></li><li><p>Vehicle purchases: $4,496</p></li><li><p>Gasoline, other fuels: $3,120</p></li><li><p>Personal care products and services: $866</p></li><li><p>Entertainment: $3,458</p></li></ul><p>Cross
off the new car and its gas and you can pay for the rest with the cost
of one dog-life and still have $3000 left for bus and subway fare.</p><p>Veterinarian
turned philosopher Bernard Rollin recalls pet owners in the 1960s
putting their dog to sleep before going on holiday, reasoning that it
was cheaper to get a new dog when they returned than to board the one
they had.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxgpdcUZK-ojFv2zKZIANE-qX2N-4GlH69MWlvwxOEmdKEUhBmdeEBnFfmiTbje2eJUACm9IXnb0uVC3iCAQ0foETwn5sQXues_6optO4UMM5jC1sap6YUrQhJiru0RwsLGuR-p0sdUhpCe2Js7UEK3rYborvR8Tm4KhuGykujo9JvS0YtebCwW63jm3CE/s1712/HowMuchDogsCost.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="1712" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxgpdcUZK-ojFv2zKZIANE-qX2N-4GlH69MWlvwxOEmdKEUhBmdeEBnFfmiTbje2eJUACm9IXnb0uVC3iCAQ0foETwn5sQXues_6optO4UMM5jC1sap6YUrQhJiru0RwsLGuR-p0sdUhpCe2Js7UEK3rYborvR8Tm4KhuGykujo9JvS0YtebCwW63jm3CE/s320/HowMuchDogsCost.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><strong>Something often overlooked</strong><span> when taking the
child to an animal shelter to get a puppy is that while you can decide
to cancel a gym subscription or yard sale that Bow-flex in your basement
when you decide you aren’t really using it, retiring a beloved family
pet when you can no longer afford it is much more difficult. As you wait
for it to die, the vet bills keep mounting. Would it not be easier to
decide to eradicate the strays? That is the low-hanging fruit in the
inevitable dog decimation project. It seems far kinder than puppy mills
and adoptions, given the grisly eventual human psychological impact this
work implies.</span><p></p><p>To reach a carbon footprint of net zero by
2050, the US will need to cut its pet population by some 10 million dogs
and 10 million cats every year for a decade and then by some 200,000
per year in the out years towards mid-century.</p><p>The saving grace in
all this dog destruction is that the race of their ancestors can safely
be returned to Middle Earth as we breed more wolves into ever-expanding
re-wilded ranges.</p><div class="captioned-button-wrap" data-attrs="{"url":"https://cooldesign.substack.com/p/decimating-the-village-dog?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDMxNzMyMCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTQyNTk1MDcxLCJpYXQiOjE3MTA0NDc1NzMsImV4cCI6MTcxMzAzOTU3MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTYwMjM3MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.pzJLVN3eCvbO48fVckuftYzAwNASXRU5xv1FZzJaABo","text":"Share"}" data-component-name="CaptionedButtonToDOM"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"></p><blockquote><span><a name='more'></a></span>Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share it.<span><!--more--></span></blockquote><p></p></div></div><div><hr /></div><p></p><p><strong>There is a growing recognition</strong><span>
that a viable path forward is towards a new carbon economy, one that
goes beyond zero emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle
backwards — taking CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean and burying it in
the ground. The triple bottom line of this new economy is antifragility,
regeneration, and resilience.</span></p><p><span> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIkp8JFV4zjf-ZMQfY_jEhbNcrmkDuppibV9kyjZorRn5kRBZH_7Ulbd8aXeWI9MBNE0wM7zeX9aKn-V6XnxXClchORC98FBvSRhfyUSPpd6QgD686lHR93v_ehxnD98gx5UuFtQGUE3kwe-VOCLF1YcN8ra2LUnTXnJluuuJQjrPLxLwECywCWyGGI94c/s1159/TipJarpluswise.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1159" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIkp8JFV4zjf-ZMQfY_jEhbNcrmkDuppibV9kyjZorRn5kRBZH_7Ulbd8aXeWI9MBNE0wM7zeX9aKn-V6XnxXClchORC98FBvSRhfyUSPpd6QgD686lHR93v_ehxnD98gx5UuFtQGUE3kwe-VOCLF1YcN8ra2LUnTXnJluuuJQjrPLxLwECywCWyGGI94c/s320/TipJarpluswise.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><strong>Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</strong><span> We support
peace in the West Bank and Gaza and the efforts by the Center for
Constitutional Rights, National Lawyers Guild, Government of South
Africa and others to bring an immediate cessation to the war. Global
Village Institute’s Peace Thru Permaculture initiative has sponsored the
Green Kibbutz network in Israel and the Marda Permaculture Farm in the
West Bank for over 30 years and will continue to do so, with your
assistance. We aid Ukrainian families seeking refuge in ecovillages and
permaculture farms along the Green Road and work to heal collective
trauma everywhere through the Pocket Project. Please direct donations to
these efforts at ecovillage@thefarm.org. You can read all about it on
the Global Village Institute website (</span><a href="http://gvix.org" rel="">GVIx.org</a><span>). Thank you for your support.</span></p><p><em>Help
me get my blog posted every week. All Patreon donations and Blogger,
Substack and Medium subscriptions are needed and welcomed. For reasons
unrevealed to us, Meta, Facebook and Instagram have blocked our
accounts. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions can be
made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity.
PowerUp! donors on Patreon get an autographed book off each first press
run. Please help if you can.</em></p><p>#RestorationGeneration</p><p></p><blockquote><p>“There
are the good tipping points, the tipping points in public consciousness
when it comes to addressing this crisis, and I think we are very close
to that.”</p><p>— Climate Scientist Michael Mann, January 13, 2021.</p></blockquote><p></p><p><em>I
am excited to teach the ecovillage approach to regenerative design.
Join me and 15 other global changemakers in April 2024 for this online
course.</em></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqhEJ6LfTq60I-oiXPCuhP_ydLCdJAZ3POvXxRlf6rjNUf0-4PXMHsdrgD9v0xEQxCnC1jVpl1xun2JXqR3GZCCAFwk1PmGzZO32oCT6WCOexIE95JAu6P8tNj8_EDZFutL7WywR0dM3cktHVCfWwaEwl-vR8mKA5LvHjdAcaFlCSRlLBrLUh95SkLcnFS/s2057/EDE24promo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="987" data-original-width="2057" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqhEJ6LfTq60I-oiXPCuhP_ydLCdJAZ3POvXxRlf6rjNUf0-4PXMHsdrgD9v0xEQxCnC1jVpl1xun2JXqR3GZCCAFwk1PmGzZO32oCT6WCOexIE95JAu6P8tNj8_EDZFutL7WywR0dM3cktHVCfWwaEwl-vR8mKA5LvHjdAcaFlCSRlLBrLUh95SkLcnFS/w640-h309/EDE24promo.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span><br /></span><p></p></div><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-92161059354535271982024-03-10T06:30:00.001-05:002024-03-10T06:30:00.131-05:00Turquoise hydrogen for the win<p><a href="">"</a><i>Forget the Hindenburg. Ferrari already has.</i><a href="">"</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipuiqDZK44zFu0rPBh19cGdn7tZPR9aNjHJpfU_wxoMKKvSAbMxS0wHX44_TJUR1jVc7yGpUIOfMciwUCAGjH4tFtlppZvUF-6Ax5HzN3yFegSeX2ZALImZtEJT1lisWCZYHJCPy65q-EScyB-lZ_4lfz0Z5KERfwEd3iaq_EwWVBHOReLFTG5m3Fd4d8Z/s2057/hindenbergoilhybot.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1227" data-original-width="2057" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipuiqDZK44zFu0rPBh19cGdn7tZPR9aNjHJpfU_wxoMKKvSAbMxS0wHX44_TJUR1jVc7yGpUIOfMciwUCAGjH4tFtlppZvUF-6Ax5HzN3yFegSeX2ZALImZtEJT1lisWCZYHJCPy65q-EScyB-lZ_4lfz0Z5KERfwEd3iaq_EwWVBHOReLFTG5m3Fd4d8Z/w640-h382/hindenbergoilhybot.jpg" width="640" /></a></b></div><b><br /></b><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>Listening to Michael Fenton</b><span> on </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJZikHI64hE" rel="">Climate Chat</a><span>
this past Sunday, I had to think twice about penning a piece about
something as complicated as replacing a fossil economy with green
hydrogen.</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">“Weather could blow down the whole city and they [TV news] wouldn’t tell you it is being caused by burning coal, oil and gas…. The public does not know what Net Zero is. It barely knows what carbon is. Few people even know what an emission is. A minority of Americans know what you mean when you say fossil fuels.”</p><p><span>As
far back as the 1960s, I recall people talking in publications like
<i>Popular Mechanics</i> about the hydrogen economy. It always had an air of
science fiction. Conventional wisdom was that the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_disaster" rel="">Hindenburg Disaster</a><span> (the transatlantic airship that exploded in 1937) had poisoned the public mind towards hydrogen. </span></p><p><span>The whole notion of a hydrogen economy traces to 1923, when the British scientist </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J.B.S._Haldane" rel="">J.B.S. Haldane</a><span>,
became concerned for the eventual exhaustion of Britain's coal. He
proposed hydrogen with long-term storage, produced by a network of wind
turbines. </span></p><div class="pullquote"><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span>Our heavy-duty trucks will be manufactured almost entirely </span><br /><span>from H2-based steel by 2030</span></p><p style="text-align: right;"><span>— </span><a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/industrial/our-heavy-duty-trucks-will-be-manufactured-almost-entirely-from-h2-based-steel-by-2030-scania/2-1-1554711" rel="">Scania</a><span> </span></p></div><p><b>With growing concern for climate</b><span>
today, daring carmakers have begun selling hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Toyota, Hyundai and manufacturers in China have all announced
ambitious plans to scale. IMC, the largest company in the US hauling
containers from ports to warehouses, has ordered 50 Nikola fuel-cell
trucks for its operations in California, Arizona and Nevada.</span></p><ul><li><p>From the late 2020s, hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles emerge as the preferred solution [for road freight].</p></li><li><p>Jet turbine planes, burning hydrogen as a fuel, start to appear on medium-haul routes in the 2040s.</p></li><li><p>In
the mid-2030s, the maritime industry settles firmly on the
hydrogen-based solution, working in close cooperation with shipbuilders,
fuel suppliers and key bunkering ports. Almost all ships constructed
after this time have fuel systems that use either hydrogen or ammonia.</p></li></ul><p style="text-align: right;"><span>— </span><i>Shell Sky 2050 Report</i></p><p><span>IMC
is concerned about the tough California laws mentioned in our previous
post. These also apply to ports and harbors, where all new drayage
trucks registered from 2024 onward must be zero-emission vehicles,
California will phase out all fossil-fuel trucks from ports by 2035. IMC
purchased six enormous battery-electric trucks from Volvo in September
2022, and installed charge points capable of serving a fleet of 30, but
ran into problems. CEO Joel Henry told Memphis daily newspaper </span><i>The Commercial Appeal:</i></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">The main challenge with battery [electric vehicles] is that you can only get four to six hours of productivity out of the truck in a 12-to-14-hour period if they are under load. The problem is that it isn’t sustainable for trucking companies, which can operate diesel tractors for about 20 to 24 hours a day.</div><p>The 300-mile
(483km) round trips between ports and warehouses IMC trucks haul are
beyond the reach of these battery-electric vehicles. The next solution:
hydrogen. The order with Nikola is worth more than $22 million, or above
$440,000 per truck.</p><p><span>Both Guangzhou-based Hybot and
Daimler-Benz have introduced trucks with claimed 1000 km (620 mi) range.
Daimler’s model runs on cryogenic liquid hydrogen—which contains 50%
more energy by volume than gaseous hydrogen at 700 bar, but is not
dispensed at any public H2 filling station. The Hybot only requires 8 kg
of H2 per 100km when traveling at high speed, with a full cargo load of
55 tons and the </span><a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/chinese-start-up-unveils-worlds-first-gaseous-hydrogen-truck-with-1-000km-range/2-1-1570968" rel="">hot water generated as a by-product</a><span>
of electricity production is used in the shower room and sink at the
back of the driver’s cab—great for long-distance runs. In “high-speed
autonomous driving” mode, the driver can also catch some Z’s without
losing time (although I am not recommending it). </span></p><p><span>Whether
Nicola will be around to service the trucks is another uncertainty. The
company has accumulated around $2.9 billion in startup losses and has
sold exactly 35 vehicles from September through January. </span><a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/nikola-hydrogen-truck-fraudster-trevor-milton-sentenced-to-four-years-in-prison-in-surreal-court-hearing/2-1-1573211" rel="">Its founder and former CEO has been sentenced to four years in prison</a><span>
for securities fraud. When the company went public he cashed in $100
million in Nikola stock to buy a plane and a private estate in the Turks
and Caicos and issued $8.5 million in stock options—later found
worthless—as part payment for a ranch in Utah. </span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-NRhcteZTr_toCuCl8h_CxDx2orxDV3HvtmPUHO-uqWx0Gjyp2s1JoToOdvQQoatVguv_Sp8H4v68l8ZtB_LVB8KH3UDuCNmIZUSrgkeZNOGVa3bqs_yMNXwDS9n3AwBeVnFowalb0WnMdM6pu8kpbjuDSXDrMXnLT2tN1yQH7zBUHqOk9fGzoDtl-P7q/s1280/turquoise-hydrogen-ferrari.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="1280" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-NRhcteZTr_toCuCl8h_CxDx2orxDV3HvtmPUHO-uqWx0Gjyp2s1JoToOdvQQoatVguv_Sp8H4v68l8ZtB_LVB8KH3UDuCNmIZUSrgkeZNOGVa3bqs_yMNXwDS9n3AwBeVnFowalb0WnMdM6pu8kpbjuDSXDrMXnLT2tN1yQH7zBUHqOk9fGzoDtl-P7q/w400-h209/turquoise-hydrogen-ferrari.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Twin-Charged Hydrogen Inline-Six Ferrari</span></i></td></tr></tbody></table><span> </span><p></p><p><span>According to Korean research company </span><a href="https://insideevs.com/news/706351/us-hydrogen-2023-sales/" rel="">SNE Research</a><span>,
14,451 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) were sold worldwide in 2023,
2,968 of those in the USA. That compares to 26 million plug-in electric
vehicles. But H2V sales collapsed by 72% in the fourth quarter, and
that likely had little to do with consumer demand. They were just too
hard to refuel. There are 55 refueling stations in California, a state
that extends 997 miles in driving distance from Oregon to Mexico.
Hydrogen gas is very light and compressing it can be energy intensive.</span></p><p><span>Meanwhile, the UK Civil Aviation Authority, with its </span><a href="https://www.hydrogen-expo.com/industry-news/ukcaa-work-three-hydrogen-aviation-companies-develop-shape-hydrogen-powered-aviations-regulatory-path" rel="">Hydrogen Challenge Sandbox</a><span>,
has been clearing the way for H2-powered commercial aviation. Director
of Airworthiness & Certification at ZeroAvia, Paul Harper, said,
“With the ever-increasing optimism around hydrogen as the fuel of the
future for aviation, it is critical that there is good knowledge sharing
between the regulator and industry in this nascent area.” </span></p><p>Forget the Hindenburg. British Airways already has.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiuMgAKskYPn4NUhIEAobROG87lZBixDmCtm3kILhfpNVumGEmYToz_wYyBv_6gHeR_jRM4neDjKwSTYkXRNURn_GAgOeC2xs3yRbYs90VRM_cjqZV6sn8KGvjY6eB-bY84hcn5aOM4PMTrZdiKk2XX0Qj_sfQD7RnYV9VrG3OfO_OZmtB2ixLDlAgT9gP/s2322/FinalHindenberg.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1734" data-original-width="2322" height="299" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiuMgAKskYPn4NUhIEAobROG87lZBixDmCtm3kILhfpNVumGEmYToz_wYyBv_6gHeR_jRM4neDjKwSTYkXRNURn_GAgOeC2xs3yRbYs90VRM_cjqZV6sn8KGvjY6eB-bY84hcn5aOM4PMTrZdiKk2XX0Qj_sfQD7RnYV9VrG3OfO_OZmtB2ixLDlAgT9gP/w400-h299/FinalHindenberg.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">Color Codes</h3><div style="text-align: left;">Most hydrogen produced today is gray hydrogen, made by separating methane (CH4) through <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_economy#cite_note-bmwi-2020-38">steam methane reforming </a>(SMR)—CH4+2H2O=CO2+O2+6H2—which accounts for 1.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. All of those save oxygen—methane, water vapor, and hydrogen itself—are greenhouse gases to varying degrees. </div><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="text-align: left;"></h3><p><i><b>Brown or black hydrogen</b></i><span> is produced from fossil hydrocarbons such as lignite (brown) or bituminous coal (black) using coal gasification.</span></p><p><i><b>Blue hydrogen</b></i><span> uses SMR with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to intercept the greenhouse gases before they escape.</span></p><p><i><b>Gold, white, or geological hydrogen</b></i><span> is made by iron reacting with water in the deep crust. There is no methane involved.</span></p><p><i><b>Green hydrogen</b></i><span>
replaces fossil methane with biogenic methane and uses renewable energy
and electrolysis to separate it. Green H2 accounts for 1 percent of all
hydrogen today. The other 99%, almost all Gray H2, is put into use by
fossil industry oil refining and in the manufacture of ammonia for
fertilizers and methanol. Ironically, Britain is using some of its last
remaining coal and oil to make hydrogen.</span></p><p><i><b>Yellow hydrogen</b></i><span> is a subset of green, produced solely by solar power.</span></p><p><span>In
the 1970s, when nuclear power was all the rage and worries about
cancer, birth defects and basement atomic bombs built by non-state
actors were hushed up, suppressed, and ridiculed (oh, wait, that was the
2020s), the idea was floated that nukes could be used to make “green”
hydrogen. That was a classic version of greenwash. Nuke hydrogen is now
called </span><i><b>red, pink </b></i><span>or </span><i><b>purple</b></i><span> and generally means splitting fossil gas by steam or electrolysis.</span></p><p><span>Currently
there are no real alternatives to gray hydrogen for producing
fertilizer. That may change, because production costs of low- and
zero-carbon green hydrogen are improving. The black swan, however, may
be </span><i><b>turquoise hydrogen.</b></i></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: center;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>The Great Change is a reader-supported publication. You make it possible. Please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</i></span></p></div><div class="subscribe-widget is-signed-up is-fully-subscribed" data-component-name="SubscribeWidget"><p class="button-wrapper"></p></div></div></div><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">Turquoise hydrogen.<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§turquoise-hydrogen"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/142345210/turquoise-hydrogen"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"></svg></div></div></div></h3><p><b>Another way of making hydrogen</b><span> is to thermally split methane with renewable energy. Hydrogen made this way is referred as turquoise hydrogen. This led me to </span><a href="https://hagoenergetics.com/" rel="">Hago Energetics</a><span>,
a modest shared workspace in an industrial park on the northern
outskirts of Los Angeles. I have known Wilson Hago for several years
because of his work with biochar. His newest venture applies biochar to
producing turquoise hydrogen. <br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxgo0rAc7r2UNBr0Xq5TiJh6HgYpD0WHjAx-_JcM1Kf0U5ak2tDTKVxWDlemxPONuKA84a4VG9nBva8966bR9h1jDom10No3_4VbPpVrrsFRUGN0L7zJ-vxaW3cqyDjF_XuJSWIX4GOq3p1O6jTTQv5Xm2GhxIpcw80N25juP61exzI-hq2rbgFFF7vKVf/s2316/comicHago1.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1738" data-original-width="2316" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxgo0rAc7r2UNBr0Xq5TiJh6HgYpD0WHjAx-_JcM1Kf0U5ak2tDTKVxWDlemxPONuKA84a4VG9nBva8966bR9h1jDom10No3_4VbPpVrrsFRUGN0L7zJ-vxaW3cqyDjF_XuJSWIX4GOq3p1O6jTTQv5Xm2GhxIpcw80N25juP61exzI-hq2rbgFFF7vKVf/w640-h480/comicHago1.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p>His invention is a device that taps fugitive methane sources before they
leave their source—landfills, leaking fossil drill holes, or methane
pipelines, for instance. This is a greenhouse gas that would otherwise
escape to the atmosphere (hence “fugitive”). He passes methane through
hot biochar to convert it to hydrogen.</p><p></p><p><span>I have for some years been skeptical of green and blue H2 for a
reason that seems to have eluded others. I guess my views are tempered
by my experience with nuclear power. In 1976 the USNRC published an
environmental statement on the Mixed Oxide Fuel Cycle (GESMO),
Nureg-0002, that explored the cancer and birth defects consequences of
recycling spent uranium after it had been used in power reactors.
Ignoring the immense potential for placing both dirty bombs and atomic
weapons into the hands of idiots, GESMO revealed the horrific death toll
to civilian populations located near fuel reprocessing, milling and
fabrication plants and to their descendants </span><i>ad infinitum.</i><span>
GESMO, along with National Lab medical researchers like Art Tamplin and
John Gofman, killed the idea of recycled plutonium, at least until
DoE’s latest useful idiots like Bill Gates, James Hansen and Tomas Pueyo
revived it.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHoyOpN-hxCS5-ZfeXohR-NB8hyhQXyKWTle24ob0QaUwCfUP8jDZwhcj12zCMYBLL2uPFhY8zawWVhjzJoMALPJR2Tixqoly5GnhkcLwa0sWCe7H3A85rQ1E0eT-JHMijHc9s1TwatE591n6IqBqpb_TjEXflxzIMJ_x8vLUWSHbhoFA2tituhpaXtDS7/s1188/HagoReactor.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="406" data-original-width="1188" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHoyOpN-hxCS5-ZfeXohR-NB8hyhQXyKWTle24ob0QaUwCfUP8jDZwhcj12zCMYBLL2uPFhY8zawWVhjzJoMALPJR2Tixqoly5GnhkcLwa0sWCe7H3A85rQ1E0eT-JHMijHc9s1TwatE591n6IqBqpb_TjEXflxzIMJ_x8vLUWSHbhoFA2tituhpaXtDS7/w640-h218/HagoReactor.jpg" width="640" /> </a></div><p></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div>My logic was that hydrogen, scaled to a fuel
economy at the level of present-day fossil fuels, would leak so many
free radical hydrogen atoms to the atmosphere that decay curves for
methane, a greenhouse gas 20 to 150 times more potent than carbon
dioxide (depending on when you assay it), would stretch out over longer
periods, further accelerating climate weirding and making it more
intransigent.<p></p><p>Hago has voided that argument because his hydrogen
was coming from sources that, left on their own, would go to the
atmosphere and have that outsized climate impact. By capturing and
reforming those sources into hydrogen fuel—the end pollution from which
is merely water and oxygen—he is saving us from leaking methane and its
accelerated warming. Hydrogen is also a greenhouse gas, but not as
potent as methane and steps can be take to contain it as much as
possible. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="322" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QGDWIuayXps" width="478" youtube-src-id="QGDWIuayXps"></iframe></div><br /><div class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{"videoId":"QGDWIuayXps","startTime":null,"endTime":null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM" id="youtube2-QGDWIuayXps"><div class="youtube-inner"></div></div><p>At
this writing, MethaneSAT has successfully separated from the SpaceX
Falcon9 rocket and by the time you are reading this will have booted up
its computer and 'detumbled,’ using its actuators to stabilize the
spacecraft. It will have begun to measure methane emissions from point
sources around the globe and relay that data to NASA.</p><p>Sources of
fugitive methane, once identified, can be fitted with Hago devices. The
Hago process uses and recycles biochar, providing innumerable upstream
and downstream benefits—economic, social and environmental. Biochar is
the safest, most profitable, and shovel-ready of all the technologies
for restoring Earth’s climate now available.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuAhdz8JHJE_H-p4j5HKsi32a2bIv6kIJNXURRy9POXkxLAs0-66MSVZF3x9ZzHPbg3wZ5sl06IfLsvYo3uWhZ-K7z-ulJoMeVY8TWqAvmE3xdrsjhux3Z5OnqgCi9emX0XhLqU9A1Quyv54FJdu9DVBU2jJ0uPXGwtkSneAszaHyCbGdBhqaPQ3mJ_YgS/s932/H2news.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="636" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuAhdz8JHJE_H-p4j5HKsi32a2bIv6kIJNXURRy9POXkxLAs0-66MSVZF3x9ZzHPbg3wZ5sl06IfLsvYo3uWhZ-K7z-ulJoMeVY8TWqAvmE3xdrsjhux3Z5OnqgCi9emX0XhLqU9A1Quyv54FJdu9DVBU2jJ0uPXGwtkSneAszaHyCbGdBhqaPQ3mJ_YgS/s320/H2news.jpg" width="218" /></a></div>The hydrogen economy
already works at small scale. That can be a bridge to a
renewables-powered future. Whether hydrogen can eventually grow to the
scale of the present global fossil-fueled economy is a separate
question. I tend to think that scale is unlikely for a variety of
reasons.<p></p><p>In the meantime, I would bet on Hago Energetics.</p><p>Santa Cruz Metro in California tested an electric bus, but it
struggled with the hilly terrain. “We couldn’t get the bus to get over
the hill at 50 mph, and once it got there, it didn’t have enough charge
to get back,” Santa Cruz Metro director Mike Rotkin told local online
news outlet Lookout Santa Cruz. Meanwhile Tokyo had a fleet of H2 buses
at the 2020 Olympics. Cologne, Germany will have 160 H2 buses in service
in 2024. Last month, for $87 million, the board of Santa Cruz Metro
announced plans to have 48 single-deck buses and nine longer,
articulated vehicles on the road within 18 months. The advantages are
undeniable: a range of 200-350 miles (483-563km) versus 175-200 miles
for electric; they can be fully “charged” in about 15 minutes, compared
to several hours for battery buses; they are lighter and therefore less
taxing on roads and bridges; and they will still work if a natural
disaster cuts off the electricity.</p><p>The best part? They may be
turquoise-powered from fugitive methane from the Santa Cruz landfill and
co-produce biochar to help feed the city, including the bus riders.</p><div><hr /></div><div class="captioned-button-wrap" data-attrs="{"url":"https://cooldesign.substack.com/p/california-comix?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDMxNzMyMCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTQxOTAwNTYxLCJpYXQiOjE3MDkwNzQ5MjAsImV4cCI6MTcxMTY2NjkyMCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTYwMjM3MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.KBawwFcAB9re3R9FWA6NaG3fgQ9mHuPx1xA2Qb6Pgkw","text":"Share"}" data-component-name="CaptionedButtonToDOM"><div class="preamble" style="margin-left: 80px; text-align: center;"><p class="cta-caption"><i>Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public on Thursdays so feel free to share it with your friends.<span></span></i></p><a name='more'></a><p></p></div></div><p><strong>There is a growing recognition</strong><span>
that a viable path forward is towards a new carbon economy, one that
goes beyond zero emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle
backwards — taking CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean and burying it in
the ground. The triple bottom line of this new economy is antifragility,
regeneration, and resilience.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjH8nZ7fdCndIg44Gr8NCvp08cbHniChhLbxebylV-z04wNfqvlpkreB1a8J7_1KfNvWrwPM9nX5Mfk7d1p136yr4QPcPz9rP2csTqWpBugT2Ux-pbY-gzYoajid3XKvnmE7RfkaZuBT1r01dIf-CA0PMhGFRsBKoatSC9IORLgkYeTbcLt1tJqJWjgusc/s1159/TipJarpluswise.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1159" height="157" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjH8nZ7fdCndIg44Gr8NCvp08cbHniChhLbxebylV-z04wNfqvlpkreB1a8J7_1KfNvWrwPM9nX5Mfk7d1p136yr4QPcPz9rP2csTqWpBugT2Ux-pbY-gzYoajid3XKvnmE7RfkaZuBT1r01dIf-CA0PMhGFRsBKoatSC9IORLgkYeTbcLt1tJqJWjgusc/w200-h157/TipJarpluswise.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>Meanwhile, let’s end these wars. We support peace in the West Bank
and Gaza and the efforts by the Center for Constitutional Rights,
National Lawyers Guild, Government of South Africa and others to bring
an immediate cessation to the war. Global Village Institute has
sponsored the Green Kibbutz network in Israel and the Marda Permaculture
Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years and will continue to do so,
with your assistance. We aid Ukrainian families seeking refuge in
ecovillages and permaculture farms along the Green Road and work to heal
collective trauma through the Pocket Project. You can donate by
directing donations to us at ecovillage@thefarm.org. You can read all
about it on the Global Village Institute website (GVIx.org). Thank you
for your support.<p><em>Help me get my blog posted every week. All
Patreon donations and Blogger, Substack and Medium subscriptions are
needed and welcomed. For reasons unrevealed to us, Meta, Facebook and
Instagram have blocked our accounts. You are how we make this happen.
Your contributions can be made to Global Village Institute, a
tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on Patreon get an
autographed book off each first press run. Please help if you can.</em></p><p>#RestorationGeneration</p><p>“There
are the good tipping points, the tipping points in public consciousness
when it comes to addressing this crisis, and I think we are very close
to that.”</p><p>— Climate Scientist Michael Mann, January 13, 2021.</p><p><em>I
am excited to teach the ecovillage approach to regenerative design.
Join me and 15 other global changemakers in April 2024 for this online
course.</em></p><p><em></em></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><em><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbSc8wmfjwLiaLTKyHYYhy2z2l7EAt9W3wRJP4qtUoIaLi3IwR4qBgjZ7aRtVHVBTkp8D_wYodYvzxL37adLazROojbH0ccSxtDysSD2xmu6zLIE-6ZLyVM9j_93A5iNpxRLuaGSlEP-lXe-HJjogfWCDnnnYp6GYKrDPASM1Zu60ZaHkHxShZtFWYjLuq/s2057/EDE24promo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="987" data-original-width="2057" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbSc8wmfjwLiaLTKyHYYhy2z2l7EAt9W3wRJP4qtUoIaLi3IwR4qBgjZ7aRtVHVBTkp8D_wYodYvzxL37adLazROojbH0ccSxtDysSD2xmu6zLIE-6ZLyVM9j_93A5iNpxRLuaGSlEP-lXe-HJjogfWCDnnnYp6GYKrDPASM1Zu60ZaHkHxShZtFWYjLuq/w400-h193/EDE24promo.jpg" width="400" /></a></em></div><p></p>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-81703741567833679342024-03-03T06:30:00.028-06:002024-03-03T06:30:00.132-06:00Welcome to the Pyrocene<p><a href="">"</a><i>Anthropocene we barely knew ye.</i><a href="">"</a></p><p><b><a href="https://www.biocharconference.com/" rel=""></a></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbcNl5hpvV1VKRSgX8acbhQsROKiGWTR1_ciGntJc90GL7dNKFljJR0xfqUF0p9i5KtxwH2xKpKv5w2uVnhri0IVaIRkqJ8dwiRcA-q5MW6NzIs0RagisNC4fAPfkSdUD6uND0g_gFEcPP6bWTTaRDDGTW5TE3yntn5ZLuZT4OaScUpLtalVWs5y5lIeJ5/s1208/ABcomiccementcrop.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="704" data-original-width="1208" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbcNl5hpvV1VKRSgX8acbhQsROKiGWTR1_ciGntJc90GL7dNKFljJR0xfqUF0p9i5KtxwH2xKpKv5w2uVnhri0IVaIRkqJ8dwiRcA-q5MW6NzIs0RagisNC4fAPfkSdUD6uND0g_gFEcPP6bWTTaRDDGTW5TE3yntn5ZLuZT4OaScUpLtalVWs5y5lIeJ5/w640-h372/ABcomiccementcrop.jpg" width="640" /></a></b></div><b><br />North American Biochar 2024</b><span>
was held in Sacramento last week and it was standing room only during
the plenary sessions in the expansive SAFE Conference Center near the
state capitol. There was a TechCon conference going on in the Hyatt
across the street but, somewhat surprisingly for California, it was tiny
and half-hearted by comparison. </span><p></p><p>If you were to go back a
quarter century those tables would be flipped. Just launch a dot com and
your Series A was assured. Raise the champagne flutes. Massaratis all
around. Ask any of the young unicorns or VCs then about biochar and
you’d have drawn a blank stare. Biochar existed only in the rarified
atmosphere of academic labs or on the trowels of archaeologists
excavating river banks in Brazil. </p><p>Today ninety-nine percent of
those flashy tech startups are gone. Biochar is quietly ascendant. As I
have discovered from recent public talks, knowledge of biochar is
remarkably limited here on the Left Coast, compared to audiences I have
spoken to in Finland, Italy, Australia and China. This could be a
cautionary lesson but there is a difference between the boom and bust of
tech and biochar. Biochar is inevitable. The industry has crossed a
point where it has become unstoppable. Any number of companies in this
field that exist today are at one ten thousandth of the size they will
be at maturity, in as little as 10 years from now. Many will stay at
that size for centuries, should humanity survive.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY1m4z241YISpleP0OcRwboy1z0WWyM5p_poPhr-goRE-p30-DVkEkXSZJ7Ps6oP4hVwTuVyX5nRvUQYHKEQkRFOxRNmC7TNNDIQj7jEA6nFJLDPGu3JoRmtXERpd2IRqymGMtncJZh2HsVKahVsV7vA6Zjjp5xHVKV9ZyN8G5xnRksnSX8pgCX5b6eDFN/s1147/CDRandSDGsbyNDC.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1147" data-original-width="966" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY1m4z241YISpleP0OcRwboy1z0WWyM5p_poPhr-goRE-p30-DVkEkXSZJ7Ps6oP4hVwTuVyX5nRvUQYHKEQkRFOxRNmC7TNNDIQj7jEA6nFJLDPGu3JoRmtXERpd2IRqymGMtncJZh2HsVKahVsV7vA6Zjjp5xHVKV9ZyN8G5xnRksnSX8pgCX5b6eDFN/w338-h400/CDRandSDGsbyNDC.jpg" width="338" /></a> <br /></p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="text-align: left;">Flipping the Industrial Paradigm</h3><p><b>There is a paradigm shift underway. </b><span>Kathleen Draper’s and my book, </span><i>Burn: Using Fire to Cool the Earth, </i><span>showed
only a fraction of the change underway. We worried in 2018 we were
overstating the case, but now we know we were understating. What we got
right was that the economics of the next two hundred years will be a
mirror image of the past two hundred years. </span></p><p>It is not a
case of de-industrialization (although that cannot be excluded given the
number of new black swans landing on the pond daily), but a reversal of
how progress has been made. Instead of taking carbon from the earth,
burning it for energy, and disposing of the effluent to the atmosphere
and ocean, we will be taking carbon from the sky and sea, producing net
energy with fire, and sequestering that carbon for millennia in the
earth. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPZRKPshNpYIwyyleOqRTIhz9O7lbeqnVUSP0GlUEdBWFW49p5oSGs15ucMI_t8IrQJ78D8I72msE8NYY7dnF1pUj2ANo9amKm6nH-N50QOaEaT020muWoYcNRK68q2vXIThBh5WdKMlBo8WpooQ4Vn3mdPhQ9-E9Qf0nrKqCKlOUJpvTJjwdqjhHjEjKI/s612/biocharasphalttrength.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="401" data-original-width="612" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPZRKPshNpYIwyyleOqRTIhz9O7lbeqnVUSP0GlUEdBWFW49p5oSGs15ucMI_t8IrQJ78D8I72msE8NYY7dnF1pUj2ANo9amKm6nH-N50QOaEaT020muWoYcNRK68q2vXIThBh5WdKMlBo8WpooQ4Vn3mdPhQ9-E9Qf0nrKqCKlOUJpvTJjwdqjhHjEjKI/w400-h263/biocharasphalttrength.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>We will build our 21st-century civilization from the
carbon we withdraw from the wastes and pollutants of the 20th century.
That means everything from bioenergy and abundant fields of food to
skyscrapers, highways, bridges and ports. It means clothing woven from
bamboo biochar; home cooking and heating that draw more carbon out of
the atmosphere than they emit; gardens that do not over-nitrify
waterways or bankrupt farmers from the high cost of fossil fertilizer
addiction, but supply nutrient-dense, healthy organic produce; and
biodiverse ecosystem regeneration.<p></p><p> <span>One of the shibboleths employed by critics is easily put to
rest. They say biochar can’t possibly scale enough to matter in
reversing climate change because the entire biomass of the planet—all
the animals, plants, forests, algae, and people—contains 550 gigatons (a
gigaton is one billion tons) of carbon (550 GtC). Plants are about 450
Gt of that, or 82%, and their photosynthesis draws carbon out of the
atmosphere. Intercepting carbon’s return by not allowing the biomass to
decay to greenhouse gases and instead converting it to mineralized
carbon with a durability </span><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166516223002276?via%3Dihub" rel="">measured in the thousands to millions of years</a><span> (biochar) has the effect of restoring the atmosphere's chemistry and cooling the planet. </span></p><div class="pullquote"><p><i></i></p><blockquote><i>Doubling time for biochar production capacity globally jumped from 9 months in 2021 to 3.6 months in 2023.</i></blockquote><p></p></div><p>Legacy
carbon pollution from the industrial age constitutes about 800 billion
tons of carbon in atmosphere and ocean (they are a coupled system) so
even if the ENTIRE 450 billion tons of carbon in plants were converted
to biochar, the critics argue, it would not be enough to reverse climate
change.</p><p>Of course, that is not a good argument about why we
shouldn’t use biochar because none of the climate solutions we know
about is a whole solution, and each can contribute its small part. Each
is one Waldorf on the salad bar, as Stacey Randecker hastens to add. But
the argument fails on a more fundamental point—our linear pattern of
processing information in three dimensions instead of four. The fourth
dimension is time.</p><p>Plants don’t just grow one and done. They
encore every season. Earth’s 450 billion tons of plant biomass renews on
a timescale that varies by species but generally from years to decades,
or in the case of algae, hours to days.</p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjglfN3O8UFcDwxwnabyeymdIbZs17uV-3jdw_aEXKwOXA9JMn1fnDOfKd9WHfWiwFnh5MBDdO9UTnyBNtmn-Gef0TmmUT4ssTgeeA9ZBRzD5ptUqPevNCTaiF4STlzI46Z50V7ZA0Glw-EnXYyfIjUeIxNazb8sNlhS9gyfaY_f193nRPv99fTTQN-0j7X/s1808/GlanrisBiocharSchematic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="864" data-original-width="1808" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjglfN3O8UFcDwxwnabyeymdIbZs17uV-3jdw_aEXKwOXA9JMn1fnDOfKd9WHfWiwFnh5MBDdO9UTnyBNtmn-Gef0TmmUT4ssTgeeA9ZBRzD5ptUqPevNCTaiF4STlzI46Z50V7ZA0Glw-EnXYyfIjUeIxNazb8sNlhS9gyfaY_f193nRPv99fTTQN-0j7X/w400-h191/GlanrisBiocharSchematic.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">graphic courtesy of Glanris, Inc.</span></i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p></p><p></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Chasing China</h3><h4 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§chasing-china"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/142112402/chasing-china"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><b>Let us take the example</b><span>
of just one of the more than 200 biochar producing factories China has
built in the past 5 years. It draws biomass crop wastes from a
surrounding agricultural region. Indeed, these 200 plants have been
sited specifically to serve in a hub and spoke fashion to reduce
transportation of biomass into the factory and fertilizer out to the
farms. The government has constructed entire, well-designed ecovillages
to provide a robust workforce for this integrated system. Our model
plant takes in 130,000 tons/year (about ten truckloads per day) of crop
waste. It outputs 32500 tons of biochar and 10000 gallons of bio-oils
annually. This represents an annual CO2 drawdown of roughly 100,000 tons
from the atmosphere and ocean (thorough life cycle analysis would
sharpen the calculation). Unlike other types of removal (DACCS, BECCS,
mineralization, etc.), there is no extra operating cost for that
scrubbing service; it is just a side benefit of fertilizer production.
Those 200 new plants combined remove something on the order of 20
million tons (20 MtCO2*) every year. </span></span></div></div></div></h4><p><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">*Carbon dioxide
withdrawal can be calculated by multiplying metric tonnes by 0.8
(average inert carbon content of biochar) and 3.667 (coefficient for
conversion to CO2). </span></i></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHmb7fWJZZgqDBbi5fQuRshEg64bNWLhCO8r5WXDw61aorq4TrUKDNi-P2qUWkdhCjhVqGStv-e-XHZyAGzcbLhGEivvzbSVewqtYxFv4jnmQmIw5WG1SClpAnC5PKQMpUqI2UmyhhcydRxymCyGgflYSOQjCrTcWP7SJ-MDrwU91ByyhbWVOohZl1jyEs/s640/chinareactor32500ty%20-%201.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="640" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHmb7fWJZZgqDBbi5fQuRshEg64bNWLhCO8r5WXDw61aorq4TrUKDNi-P2qUWkdhCjhVqGStv-e-XHZyAGzcbLhGEivvzbSVewqtYxFv4jnmQmIw5WG1SClpAnC5PKQMpUqI2UmyhhcydRxymCyGgflYSOQjCrTcWP7SJ-MDrwU91ByyhbWVOohZl1jyEs/w400-h301/chinareactor32500ty%20-%201.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">The author with Nanjing Agricultural University professor Gensing Pan and <br />IBI
Chairman Kathleen Draper at a Chinese 32500-ton biochar plant in 2018</span></i></td></tr></tbody></table><span> </span><p></p><p><span>Perhaps the more important point is that they are already doing
this, and this is just one early example in a world of nearly 200
countries all planning to do this. By comparison, to date 27 Direct Air
Capture plants have been commissioned worldwide, capturing 0.01MtCO2/y
at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and euros. DAC deployment,
subsidized by tax money, is projected to sequester 75 MtCO2/y by 2050. [</span><a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage/direct-air-capture" rel="">IEA, 2024</a><span>] Meanwhile, biochar carbon removal was 1.34 MtCO2/y in 2023 at a </span><i><b>profit</b></i><span>
to producers of about $35 million dollars. According to an industry
survey still in progress, production will be 7.87 MtCO2/y in 2025. It
will likely pass DAC’s 2050 goal in 2035.</span></p><p>While feedstocks
are a limiting factor when only using crop residues or only making
biochar for fertilizer, those limits vanish when we discover the
superior qualities of biochar in construction, road building, carbon
fiber, polymers, epoxies, batteries, and other uses. Suddenly the world
of contaminated municipal waste, sewage biosolids, unrecyclable plastic,
and myriad carbon waste streams beckons.</p><div class="pullquote"><p></p><blockquote><i>We
may have already passed the point where concrete outweighs the combined
carbon mass of every tree, bush and shrub on the planet.</i></blockquote><p></p><p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmxpx-khkGgkOtUInAInlhfcF3zMGAiIb-eWqd4v9ozA_rNwlCemqYLSOk6hz7BT3OXI_61p5nWR_oXUo1ToU1oe6IOomQbD5_kF-kXXHaxmBQzJXK0Vb_oYxNd7n4BeTljLZB5ELaMrKJPVKOJFwfXstoPFlShVGnRa0eRnOxE7GUvKOVxL_45qHDw-oq/s422/Biobitumen.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="293" data-original-width="422" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmxpx-khkGgkOtUInAInlhfcF3zMGAiIb-eWqd4v9ozA_rNwlCemqYLSOk6hz7BT3OXI_61p5nWR_oXUo1ToU1oe6IOomQbD5_kF-kXXHaxmBQzJXK0Vb_oYxNd7n4BeTljLZB5ELaMrKJPVKOJFwfXstoPFlShVGnRa0eRnOxE7GUvKOVxL_45qHDw-oq/w400-h278/Biobitumen.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Let, 2024</span></i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><div class="pullquote"><p><span>A second shibboleth is “why bother gathering carbon from algae
in the ocean and making it into biochar (potentially a feedstock source
far larger than crop waste) when we could just sink the algae to the sea
bed and sequester it that way?” This notion has been </span><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GB007083" rel="">debunked by marine biologists</a><span>
who point to the biological carbon pump that extends even to the
deepest darkest depths to bring carbon back to the surface where it will
return to the atmosphere.</span></p><p><span>Each year normal ocean
circulation withdraws 1,300 GtC from the atmosphere and returns about
80-90 percent, although warming may be slowing the pump. On the downward
trip, 85% is zooplankton fecal pellets and 15% is sinking phytoplankton
aggregates. On the return trip to the surface, carbon molecules ride
whale poop and gas bubbles. These pathways have different sequestration
times, with an average of 50-140 years to complete the full cycle. In
terms of sequestration permanence, </span><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166516223002276?via%3Dihub" rel="">that is millennia briefer than biochar</a><span>.</span></p><p>Another
ridiculous claim from critics of biochar is that because it is black it
will absorb sunlight and speed global warming. Anyone who has used
biochar will tell you it does little good to spread it around the
surface of a garden. It needs to be at the plant roots to work its
magic. We do this on a large scale with keyline or chisel plows and
injection systems or at small scale with a hoe.</p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="text-align: left;">Repaving Paradise</h3><p><b>Sacramento seemed an especially apt location</b><span>
for a biochar conference exploring the potential of the industry to
scale. Nearly 20 years ago, when Governor Arnold “The Terminator”
Schwarzenegger was approaching the end of his first term, he got the </span><b><a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/ab-32-global-warming-solutions-act-2006" rel="">California Global Warming Solutions Act</a></b><span>
through the statehouse. Well ahead of the rest of the world, that law
required the State Air Resources Board to ensure that statewide
greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced to at least 40% below the 1990
level by 2030. It required the SARB to prepare and approve, and update
at least once every 5 years, a scoping plan for achieving the maximum
technologically feasible and cost-effective reductions in greenhouse
gases by 2020.</span></p><p><a href="https://pluralpolicy.com/app/legislative-tracking/bill/details/state-ca-20212022-sb596/783391" rel="">Updating the Act in 2021</a><span>,
California’s General Assembly required the SARB, by July 1, 2023, to
develop a comprehensive strategy for the state's cement sector to
achieve net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases associated with cement
used within the state as soon as possible, but no later than December
31, 2045. The Act required the state board, in developing this
comprehensive strategy, to define a metric for greenhouse gas intensity
and to measure reductions, coordinate and consult with other state
agencies, prioritize actions that leverage state and federal incentives,
take measures to support market demand and propose financial incentives
to encourage the switch. </span></p><p>Sweden, by comparison, has
required all aspects of hardscape infrastructure to achieve climate
neutrality by 2045, with interim targets of a 15% reduction in GHG
emissions by 2020, compared to 2015 values, and a 30 percent reduction
by 2025.</p><p>The construction industry in California is now legally
required to reduce the climate pollution of cement used within the state
to 40% below the 2019 average levels by December 31, 2035. By July 1,
2028, SARB must evaluate the feasibility of interim targets and adjust
the targets upwards or downwards, as provided, to deliver on the
required goals.</p><div class="pullquote"><p></p><blockquote><i>The European Bitumen
Association released the life-cycle inventory for bitumen in 2020,
showing that producing one ton of asphalt requires energy consumption of
2830.69 MJ and releases 189.12 KtCO2e (Reeves, 2020).</i></blockquote><p></p></div><p>Between
4 and 8 percent of global CO2 emissions come from concrete. Most of
that is from the production stage of cement, where giant kilns fueled by
oil, coal or fossil gas take tons of crushed limestone to a temperature
of 1500°C to separate calcium oxide (lime) from calcium carbonate
(stone). 900 kg of CO2 is emitted in the fabrication of every ton of
cement. Seven percent of that is from mining and transportation. The
remainder is the process of dry kilning the cement. </p><p>One way to
reduce the CO2 intensity would be to include more fly ash content (up to
80% is possible for some common applications like patios and concrete
blocks). Fly ash is what goes up with smoke or falls to the bottom of
the firebox when you are burning coal. Content varies depending on the
coal, but most fly ash is high in silicon dioxide, calcium oxide and
aluminum oxide, all valuable structural minerals for concrete, plaster,
and epoxies. </p><p>Fly ash is one of the largest waste streams in the
US. Some of it is produced from waste-to-energy plants, but because that
can contain more toxic elements than coal it is categorized as
hazardous waste. Historically most fly ash went into the atmosphere and
ocean. Today more than half is landfilled but 43% is finding its way
back to commercial use. That is one way the State may be able to reach
its 2035 target—more fly ash. But note: if you are not burning coal or
toxic waste, you are not making much fly ash.</p><p><span></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVx-SDz5XKJGoQjN2Yr6c_WPhsVlvmNrtIQw_hLemdSs4vVGJdWcGPQc3BrED1uoS3rAJe6YB1-wCJEdl566dbwcz0xUGRJRWOLK-hTDoAHLxA9p2USOs7_4DQtu9Rd02piiM6-GDYCpnVbrioB6Vjg9f9BzH-0lf9WF_mL7o3WmRjynNrtRW_XweV2MZ9/s1393/biocharconcretestrengthhi-res.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="443" data-original-width="1393" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVx-SDz5XKJGoQjN2Yr6c_WPhsVlvmNrtIQw_hLemdSs4vVGJdWcGPQc3BrED1uoS3rAJe6YB1-wCJEdl566dbwcz0xUGRJRWOLK-hTDoAHLxA9p2USOs7_4DQtu9Rd02piiM6-GDYCpnVbrioB6Vjg9f9BzH-0lf9WF_mL7o3WmRjynNrtRW_XweV2MZ9/w640-h203/biocharconcretestrengthhi-res.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Let 2024</i></span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span><br /></span><p></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Cementing Biochar</h3><h4 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§cementing-biochar"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/142112402/cementing-biochar"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><b>When we contemplate</b> converting photosynthetic material<span>
to biochar, if the end use is going to soils we have to be careful that
it is clean—no toxic residues, heavy metals, pharmaceuticals, or
microplastics. Those concerns are largely absent if the biochar will be
entombed in high-rise buildings, highways, or port facilities being
relocated uphill from rising seas. Even in road surfaces, which can
degrade from use, the potential toxicity is vanishingly small compared
to the inordinate toxic emissions secretly coming off of bitumen in
fossil asphalt today and unrecycled plastic content can reduce it
further. For biochar producers, feedstock supplies can greatly expand.
They can include sewage, municipal wastes, plastics, contaminated
seaweeds, and more.</span></span></div></div></div></h4><ul><li><p>Biochar can be used as a replacement for fine aggregates</p></li><li><p>Bio-oils can be used as a replacement for bitumen</p></li><li><p>High silica biochar (rice husk, bamboo) can be used as a replacement for cement</p></li><li><p>The higher the silica content, the higher the pozzolanic reactivity</p></li><li><p>Biochar can improve the hardness and rutting resistance of concrete and asphalt</p></li><li><p>Biochar improves the thermal insulating properties of concrete and coolth of asphalt</p></li><li><p>Biochar improves the sound absorption properties of concrete and leaching or wear of asphalt</p></li><li><p>Concrete is the most widely used substance on Earth after water</p></li><li><p>It is growing at 2.5% annually</p></li><li><p>It is responsible for between 5 and 9% of CO2 emissions (Aviation is 2%)</p></li><li><p>1 ton of cement production = 0.9 tons of CO2 released</p></li><li><p>Around 4.25 billion tons of cement are produced annually</p></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>US
producers can also register for avoidance credits of 0.517 tCOe per ton
of biochar used and drawdown carbon credits based on content.</li></ul><p>Normal
repairs and resurfacing smear asphalt over a million miles (2.2 million
km) annually. Globally, another 330,000 miles of new road are added. If
you begin to also prepare subsurface roadways with biochar aggregates
(which are stronger and more durable, prevent frost heaves and potholes,
filter rainwater, cool the surface in summer, etc.) the market grows to
the scaling limits for biochar feedstocks.</p><p>At 300 tons per mile
of road surface and 30,000 tons in grading surface, the potential road
use alone for biochar is 10 billion tons/y or 28 GtCO2e/y (at 75%
1000-year carbon content). If we can simultaneously reduce emissions
across all sectors to carbon-neutral, then we begin withdrawing carbon
from legacy emissions. To get back to pre-industrial concentrations we
will need to withdraw approximately 3 trillion tons CO2.</p><p>The ocean
will try to equilibrate by off-gassing. If we could drop concentration
by 1 gigaton per year, getting to normal will take us 3000 years. If we
can net remove 10 Gt/y it would take only 300 years. Withdrawing 50 Gt/y
would restore the climate of the Holocene in 60 years. A combination of
biochar hardscape with reforestation, marine permaculture and putting
back the whales in the oceans could, in combination, accomplish 50 Gt/y
with no feedstock bottleneck.</p><p>And now it seems likely California will show us the way.</p><p>Thanks, Arnold.</p><div><hr /></div><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">References<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§references"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/142112402/references"> </div><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/142112402/references"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;">Bennett,
Bert, Large Scale Biomass Gasification and the Co-Production of Biochar
and Bioenergy, North American Biochar Conference, 2024</span></span></div></div></div></h3><p>Kessler,
Amy M, and Chuck Hassebrook, Navigating the Future: Biochar Policy and
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Hugh, Methods for measuring biochar properties and how they determine
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S., A. Hewitt, and A. Pepler. “PPR960 Review and update of the asPECT
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Rachel, Scaling up Biochar Use in Agriculture for Soil Health and
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Lori, The feasibility of biochar as a cement replacement to reduce
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Siyue, Xiantao Qin, Ziri Xu, and Mingliang Xing. "Life cycle assessment
of energy consumption and carbon emissions of a green maintenance
material for asphalt pavement: Warm mix OUFC-5." Journal of Cleaner
Production 428 (2023): 139481.</p><div><hr /></div><div class="captioned-button-wrap" data-attrs="{"url":"https://cooldesign.substack.com/p/california-comix?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDMxNzMyMCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTQxOTAwNTYxLCJpYXQiOjE3MDkwNzQ5MjAsImV4cCI6MTcxMTY2NjkyMCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTYwMjM3MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.KBawwFcAB9re3R9FWA6NaG3fgQ9mHuPx1xA2Qb6Pgkw","text":"Share"}" data-component-name="CaptionedButtonToDOM"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"></p><blockquote style="text-align: left;">Thank you for reading <i>The Great Change.</i> This post is public on Thursdays so feel free to share it with your friends.<span><a name='more'></a></span></blockquote><p></p></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://cooldesign.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-pyrocene?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDMxNzMyMCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTQyMTEyNDAyLCJpYXQiOjE3MDkwODQxMDcsImV4cCI6MTcxMTY3NjEwNywiaXNzIjoicHViLTYwMjM3MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.4xRZXqNvJmGhx_PLEj4NO-zAKsANb-nElq3Ld5SQey8","text":"Share"}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-pyrocene?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDMxNzMyMCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTQyMTEyNDAyLCJpYXQiOjE3MDkwODQxMDcsImV4cCI6MTcxMTY3NjEwNywiaXNzIjoicHViLTYwMjM3MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.4xRZXqNvJmGhx_PLEj4NO-zAKsANb-nElq3Ld5SQey8" rel=""><span><br /></span></a></p></div><p><b>There is a growing recognition</b><span>
that a viable path forward is towards a new carbon economy, one that
goes beyond zero emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle
backwards — taking CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean and burying it in
the ground. The triple bottom line of this new economy is antifragility,
regeneration, and resilience.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOwoy0BHnaCbmZB-e1KJWQ3YNML2jLjZkekpY9ax1VpzCiGnu2WLGKfv0W2PVAPfIzXrleGeY0TcdFe6yCqaGHc9YXlL8_i2KrsHir-ZtAH_naWUrswaIfmiIlPsHpoFU1xxrVt4Z62cbPKULeMjgGF75Gf8DmIBfJDIc4VOedN9_g9r4FejhfW56FNkld/s1159/TipJarpluswise.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1159" height="157" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOwoy0BHnaCbmZB-e1KJWQ3YNML2jLjZkekpY9ax1VpzCiGnu2WLGKfv0W2PVAPfIzXrleGeY0TcdFe6yCqaGHc9YXlL8_i2KrsHir-ZtAH_naWUrswaIfmiIlPsHpoFU1xxrVt4Z62cbPKULeMjgGF75Gf8DmIBfJDIc4VOedN9_g9r4FejhfW56FNkld/w200-h157/TipJarpluswise.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>Meanwhile, let’s end these wars. We support peace in the West Bank
and Gaza and the efforts by the Center for Constitutional Rights,
National Lawyers Guild, Government of South Africa and others to bring
an immediate cessation to the war. Global Village Institute has
sponsored the Green Kibbutz network in Israel and the Marda Permaculture
Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years and will continue to do so,
with your assistance. We aid Ukrainian families seeking refuge in
ecovillages and permaculture farms along the Green Road and work to heal
collective trauma through the Pocket Project. You can donate by
directing donations to us at ecovillage@thefarm.org. You can read all
about it on the Global Village Institute website (GVIx.org). Thank you
for your support.</div><div class="pullquote"><p></p><p><i>Help me get my blog posted every week. All
Patreon donations and Blogger, Substack and Medium subscriptions are
needed and welcomed. For reasons unrevealed to us, Meta, Facebook and
Instagram have blocked our accounts. You are how we make this happen.
Your contributions can be made to Global Village Institute, a
tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on Patreon get an
autographed book off each first press run. Please help if you can.</i></p><p style="text-align: center;"><i></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPzvGKmZLGTxcbqI7uuSG-YrpjUYuODnb083qzVTAudiKJ1kCRS1VzrAwhT8F2q8EbMNRymkK3VX4L9Lm2ri5EOOws6mzjrweGiVikMeFeeweIHv2vMjAzlnKAoY6D70PP6Z73IT2e0OUcI4Vm80ySbyOSkQRaEAUavJdf5D5tIufTzL6MRvrEQjADHxX4/s439/MEH.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="431" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPzvGKmZLGTxcbqI7uuSG-YrpjUYuODnb083qzVTAudiKJ1kCRS1VzrAwhT8F2q8EbMNRymkK3VX4L9Lm2ri5EOOws6mzjrweGiVikMeFeeweIHv2vMjAzlnKAoY6D70PP6Z73IT2e0OUcI4Vm80ySbyOSkQRaEAUavJdf5D5tIufTzL6MRvrEQjADHxX4/w196-h200/MEH.gif" width="196" /></a><i> </i></i></div><p></p><p>#RestorationGeneration</p><p></p><blockquote><p>“There
are the good tipping points, the tipping points in public consciousness
when it comes to addressing this crisis, and I think we are very close
to that.”</p><p>— Climate Scientist Michael Mann, January 13, 2021.</p></blockquote></div></div><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-74571138650204151932024-02-25T06:00:00.001-06:002024-02-25T06:00:00.137-06:00California Comix<p><a href="">"</a><i>A wander through the biochar animaverse</i><a href="">"</a></p><p><strong>It was great to attend</strong><span> and exhibit at the </span><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/us-biochar-initiative/" rel="">US Biochar Initiative’s annual conference</a><span>
in Sacramento, California. With 650 people gathering for 4 or more
days, there are too many great moments to recall in a short post so I
thought I would simply illustrate my journey to the cold, wet north from
beautiful, sunny, southeastern México.</span></p><p><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijlQNMRP4XQrIBz0A8kvy4_xZxDOgM_kMDubwqi50DjE_JXVgDN6WQN2fTaGXg1J4vjsMNxK3nVINkiOryJA2YKnHgStQNqFFivZW58tQerF_ULntjIeMf2QODjlus8U5HUzD5pROiFs7drlbtY5322uw_q3k82oKc8EAJgfc6NFQsB6PIGCowuJk3wbWy/s792/Page_01.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijlQNMRP4XQrIBz0A8kvy4_xZxDOgM_kMDubwqi50DjE_JXVgDN6WQN2fTaGXg1J4vjsMNxK3nVINkiOryJA2YKnHgStQNqFFivZW58tQerF_ULntjIeMf2QODjlus8U5HUzD5pROiFs7drlbtY5322uw_q3k82oKc8EAJgfc6NFQsB6PIGCowuJk3wbWy/s16000/Page_01.jpg" /></a></span><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVbUi-CChnaztqHeXPyVwtEIdsMdLa4_LYcEur_9gZxmYdVz1xsveMjsKDg_MlqgfN0nnShlUHzZhS1rRnVBH4-QNqGJfj3sR7ROwnFfniU0nUcZkULm-QkE7xx7TotfJeo9mNSxOLsxQ3F75Zyc09ofB3Q3P1RzZ-np-KlGdyNoy9g0TaHvtjQK0_kaqn/s792/Page_02.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVbUi-CChnaztqHeXPyVwtEIdsMdLa4_LYcEur_9gZxmYdVz1xsveMjsKDg_MlqgfN0nnShlUHzZhS1rRnVBH4-QNqGJfj3sR7ROwnFfniU0nUcZkULm-QkE7xx7TotfJeo9mNSxOLsxQ3F75Zyc09ofB3Q3P1RzZ-np-KlGdyNoy9g0TaHvtjQK0_kaqn/s16000/Page_02.jpg" /></a></span><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNZTIT90tRz1VGaST-FDjfBIupHMi0TWmORU590gyM6qLvWoc67y5Bj0EGeDzXceKvPgVyM-euOxyG09Tvxw5lt4e1sajRkAL0x80J8KqXTASq8Zfdsd4K4BGwfipx0-SFKOHOvA6u9rNwVFNx20iYCdimzNklJf61dpuzfveVJxNpNo71DIqwRu-bDDnY/s792/Page_03.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNZTIT90tRz1VGaST-FDjfBIupHMi0TWmORU590gyM6qLvWoc67y5Bj0EGeDzXceKvPgVyM-euOxyG09Tvxw5lt4e1sajRkAL0x80J8KqXTASq8Zfdsd4K4BGwfipx0-SFKOHOvA6u9rNwVFNx20iYCdimzNklJf61dpuzfveVJxNpNo71DIqwRu-bDDnY/s16000/Page_03.jpg" /></a></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijlQNMRP4XQrIBz0A8kvy4_xZxDOgM_kMDubwqi50DjE_JXVgDN6WQN2fTaGXg1J4vjsMNxK3nVINkiOryJA2YKnHgStQNqFFivZW58tQerF_ULntjIeMf2QODjlus8U5HUzD5pROiFs7drlbtY5322uw_q3k82oKc8EAJgfc6NFQsB6PIGCowuJk3wbWy/s792/Page_01.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5PvAviHsRc5nG7NI4-3cCRpibHeG6Yfs_RpLxvy5Q7yYRNkN_1bJbWQBMjSelGORFdsZIy94ImknG6py_6jH9fq4AV1ZwOczPez2GpCPC8TFSl4f7f5NuewOtRWng-4Zmr1vjeroQBUBeSMdESitYdH0oVOpgwQOoywSADKsDH3Yk5GZANa5d9__EiN2g/s792/Page_04.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5PvAviHsRc5nG7NI4-3cCRpibHeG6Yfs_RpLxvy5Q7yYRNkN_1bJbWQBMjSelGORFdsZIy94ImknG6py_6jH9fq4AV1ZwOczPez2GpCPC8TFSl4f7f5NuewOtRWng-4Zmr1vjeroQBUBeSMdESitYdH0oVOpgwQOoywSADKsDH3Yk5GZANa5d9__EiN2g/s16000/Page_04.jpg" /></a></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5PvAviHsRc5nG7NI4-3cCRpibHeG6Yfs_RpLxvy5Q7yYRNkN_1bJbWQBMjSelGORFdsZIy94ImknG6py_6jH9fq4AV1ZwOczPez2GpCPC8TFSl4f7f5NuewOtRWng-4Zmr1vjeroQBUBeSMdESitYdH0oVOpgwQOoywSADKsDH3Yk5GZANa5d9__EiN2g/s792/Page_04.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span></span></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLjNthdUfVdXX0PPt8LlzldSrDkC3zahK7Y79DEzkbIv8VHCcHnt1-cW2mUh9Gb1a6S5mYB8qXYjp7nOKF0qU0yPUCicPV4ZnobEb1x-X20f3evWcPzC1lFAL8qpDizhRewQUT4RbCSjw4JzfqGPue7DnusqPbhqplPPgjkca9BHgR4HFJ6ftwD2HL12w6/s792/Page_05.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLjNthdUfVdXX0PPt8LlzldSrDkC3zahK7Y79DEzkbIv8VHCcHnt1-cW2mUh9Gb1a6S5mYB8qXYjp7nOKF0qU0yPUCicPV4ZnobEb1x-X20f3evWcPzC1lFAL8qpDizhRewQUT4RbCSjw4JzfqGPue7DnusqPbhqplPPgjkca9BHgR4HFJ6ftwD2HL12w6/s16000/Page_05.jpg" /></a><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoHDXAX6CQNI2cXSdcCtTqYRecgYWNK3LmWVNg7PnyBcWD1E6wRr6bZPfzoDCQLNzmYJbSbVpnwvUc1ppq8cpVZ4RUj64SXyegd772EvhYE0B_aP2OCMc9FX32YsIfyHRJUVeAJGFoikVxtiFu-N3HHtyBfhEH1kStb3VWWIw6Jhs4ukQY0mM6b13TQ9vX/s792/Page_06.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; 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margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLdgI9bKunEW0qwu06y-OBR2Ga82mucRfqAhVbvYosd9nhkjHVb41UDxM45mKQhHkscraIZMTXmp8lImU4dJV0ilcjXzTejMHfpRT6C8U9mh4ItMON6Trx1dadEOwl2mVaKCg9eCOcFaIm2jbqoIwN8yqt_X8KHS9-BXr7G_q0WvjUVaCZ_VgUYf0wbR1i/s16000/Page_09.jpg" /></a><span> </span><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAtqiv0f79wW4pLLsuhnKwcPcfkqYzqTV-NgMhe3x70q2uiQ-yObVDPvLak4Sb183OToxzqEzUU9gcEggvHJdtlFBD1sXR_WscEWTHDJUQgxark-W_cAthxEbEDRDAjOcP7FjXxHpgkDod2SWltAMgD-1zz269gprNILJOGtCgb7I6L0G9ZftSpcGsN7MF/s792/Page_10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAtqiv0f79wW4pLLsuhnKwcPcfkqYzqTV-NgMhe3x70q2uiQ-yObVDPvLak4Sb183OToxzqEzUU9gcEggvHJdtlFBD1sXR_WscEWTHDJUQgxark-W_cAthxEbEDRDAjOcP7FjXxHpgkDod2SWltAMgD-1zz269gprNILJOGtCgb7I6L0G9ZftSpcGsN7MF/s16000/Page_10.jpg" /></a></div><span><br /><br /><br /><br /></span><span><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p><strong>There is a growing recognition</strong><span> that a viable
path forward is towards a new carbon economy, one that goes beyond zero
emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle backwards — taking CO2
from the atmosphere and ocean and burying it in the ground. The triple
bottom line of this new economy is antifragility, regeneration, and
resilience.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI9taMGB-h6Wqv8YhCImsZTcM77dxhCgq06r50cM5jqrvkd-66lXG_PrX3ndbDAF-pPR6V7R6PnwQ8UrF5vC36XnoPk-rlAYQtP7pZyvYr9G7kWjyU29cXFM81uH60V3k4c93zidfGmXXXuXelhle5DUnqGRwgV7NNgwZuH0zn3b5u0BlA7vfY8FdKr7C7/s1159/TipJarpluswise.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1159" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI9taMGB-h6Wqv8YhCImsZTcM77dxhCgq06r50cM5jqrvkd-66lXG_PrX3ndbDAF-pPR6V7R6PnwQ8UrF5vC36XnoPk-rlAYQtP7pZyvYr9G7kWjyU29cXFM81uH60V3k4c93zidfGmXXXuXelhle5DUnqGRwgV7NNgwZuH0zn3b5u0BlA7vfY8FdKr7C7/s320/TipJarpluswise.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p><b>Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</b> We support peace in the West Bank
and Gaza and the efforts by the Center for Constitutional Rights,
National Lawyers Guild, Government of South Africa and others to bring
an immediate cessation to the war. Global Village Institute has
sponsored the Green Kibbutz network in Israel and the Marda Permaculture
Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years and will continue to do so,
with your assistance. We aid Ukrainian families seeking refuge in
ecovillages and permaculture farms along the Green Road and work to heal
collective trauma through the Pocket Project. You can donate by
directing donations to us at ecovillage@thefarm.org. You can read all
about it on the Global Village Institute website (GVIx.org). Thank you
for your support.</p><p><em>Help me get my blog posted every week. All
Patreon donations and Blogger, Substack and Medium subscriptions are
needed and welcomed. For reasons unrevealed to us, Meta, Facebook and
Instagram have blocked our accounts. You are how we make this happen.
Your contributions can be made to Global Village Institute, a
tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on Patreon get an
autographed book off each first press run. Please help if you can.</em></p><p><span>Following that, I will be in Santa Barbara for the </span><a href="https://www.lobero.org/events/eco-hero-award-2024-2/" rel="">2024 Eco-Hero Award.</a><span> Y’all are invited!</span></p><p>Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share.</p><p>#RestorationGeneration</p><p>“There
are the good tipping points, the tipping points in public consciousness
when it comes to addressing this crisis, and I think we are very close
to that.”</p><p>— Climate Scientist Michael Mann, January 13, 2021.</p><p><span> </span></p><p>
</p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-55013947521872817352024-02-18T09:00:00.005-06:002024-02-18T09:00:00.243-06:00Doomerism as Lifestyle<div><p><a href="">"</a><i>Some tipping points are worse than others. Human ones are the scariest.</i><a href="">"</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZO3SRdnhSoiMTHriKWtiQmyjLp7aSRTseZxbVOmPeRMcuziBdjuHO25wLaVNFGtOtHPgGflhhXlIa5dqN1DWUCzwqrB3iVBI3Y_3eKKYq6kjYDW88fDyCdOWD0gMfTQTGk3AE30uH6E1vmeaGF5sVLy8wTBV_scT5r7DjsCW62HMpHLz6gJR_aHBJTT_s/s2450/comicoilwhalepodcrop.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1644" data-original-width="2450" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZO3SRdnhSoiMTHriKWtiQmyjLp7aSRTseZxbVOmPeRMcuziBdjuHO25wLaVNFGtOtHPgGflhhXlIa5dqN1DWUCzwqrB3iVBI3Y_3eKKYq6kjYDW88fDyCdOWD0gMfTQTGk3AE30uH6E1vmeaGF5sVLy8wTBV_scT5r7DjsCW62HMpHLz6gJR_aHBJTT_s/w400-h269/comicoilwhalepodcrop.jpg" width="400" /></a></strong></div><strong>Apocalyptic scenarios are what fuel Eliot Jacobson’s jaundiced outlook</strong><span>
for most efforts to do something about climate change. Jacobson is a
Professor of Computer Science at UC Santa Barbara. Here he is on Dan
Miller’s </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YBpKduVvqA" rel="">Climate Chat</a><span> on February 4, 2024:</span><p></p><i></i></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>Jacobson: I am an environmentalist and so I am in favor of the collapse of global industrial civilization, right? I am in favor of the human footprint on this planet becoming smaller just as quickly as it possibly can…. The problem is that these technologies are more likely to prolong civilization than to aid in its descent. All of the other things that humans are doing, whether it's destroying the biosphere through plastic pollution or what we're doing to our food production and how we treat animals, all of these other harms we are doing to the planet are only going to grow in scale. You're not going to put lithium in place of beef, right? As we create products that will allow civilization to maintain itself and grow even more, we're talking about destruction of our soils and that all boils down to even more suffering for a greater number of humans, even more suffering for a greater number of animals and species on the planet, even a larger ultimate extinction event, right? </i><br /><br /><i>You know we're going to hit the Seneca Cliff and the question is, how high up that cliff do we want to compel ourselves to go through these Al, alternative technologies before we go over it? So I'm not going to tell you that they don't work, right? … I think that's outweighed by the long-term impacts it has on allowing population to continue to grow and allowing the destruction of yet other ecosystems.</i><br /><br /><i>Miller: Not only would I describe you as a Doomer but I would describe you as a Promoter of Doom. </i><br /><br /><i>Jacobson: Yeah very much.</i><br /><br /><i>Miller: You're for doom because you think it will be better for the entire Earth or it'll be better for the environment.</i><br /><br /><i>Jacobson: Yeah, again, I am an environmentalist. And the best thing that could happen to this planet is to get rid of people.</i><br /><br /><i>Miller: Okay well that's very interesting. I didn't expect the conversation to go there, but uh I yeah I guess I don't agree. I mean, first of all, I don't disagree with sort of the premise and a lot of what you say….</i><br /><br /><i>Jacobson: We were using the example of [climate science writer and blogger] Michael Mann. Michael Mann is not an environmentalist. He is the opposite of an environmentalist. He is for the destruction of ecosystems. He is for new technologies that are going be placed on locations that are pristine, whether they're mines or fields of solar panels… wind turbines and ocean ecologies, right? He is for them with the idea that that would allow human civilization to continue to grow, which because of all the other impacts of humans will even further degrade various systems, right? So to call me the one who is pro-collapse actually… Michael Mann is setting the stage for a much larger collapse than I am. He said his idea is not just that 8 billion humans should collapse but that 10 or 12 billion humans should collapse. And on our way out we should create even more devastation to the planet, right? So, I absolutely disagree that Michael Mann is in favor of preserving the planet.</i></div><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p></p><blockquote><blockquote><i>The
Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts
and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</i></blockquote></blockquote><p></p></div><div class="subscribe-widget is-signed-up is-fully-subscribed" data-component-name="SubscribeWidget"><p class="button-wrapper"></p></div></div></div><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkQ94TBR9owEtNj-A9NpMax60263Ri0exu_4y2XWHAkhXzQ4HA9q27ZU5p6H_-v90T1zhrpanhM-XiaV8pVjrvdaECguxDAMCP5jGXok65ZlMgwfgVMq0P9i2hgLPrOtOn5IzoUXWABNsGYi_ULboYBuoxyMVuUvURH8AN7XBNPLl0dcvBD7OiA8AC3Zma/s639/1953_How_Red_Is_The_Little_Red_Schoolhouse_00a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="639" data-original-width="482" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkQ94TBR9owEtNj-A9NpMax60263Ri0exu_4y2XWHAkhXzQ4HA9q27ZU5p6H_-v90T1zhrpanhM-XiaV8pVjrvdaECguxDAMCP5jGXok65ZlMgwfgVMq0P9i2hgLPrOtOn5IzoUXWABNsGYi_ULboYBuoxyMVuUvURH8AN7XBNPLl0dcvBD7OiA8AC3Zma/s320/1953_How_Red_Is_The_Little_Red_Schoolhouse_00a.jpg" width="241" /></a></div>You
get the point. If you favor green technology, you are just making it
worse for the next generation, who will fall off a higher cliff when
ecosystems implode. As alluring as I find this view, I am also chastened
by the guest editorial that Tyler Austin Harper, assistant professor of
environmental studies at Bates College, wrote for <em>The New York Times</em><span> on January 26, 2024 entitled, “</span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/26/opinion/polycrisis-doom-extinction-humanity.html" rel="">The 100-Year Extinction Panic Is Back, Right on Schedule</a><span>”:</span><p></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Our panics are often puffed up, our predictions simply wrong. Human life and labor were not superseded by machines, as some in the 1920s predicted. Or in the 1960s or in the 1980s, two other flash-in-the-pan periods of A.I. hype. The takeaway is not that we shouldn’t be worried but that we shouldn’t panic. Foretelling doom is an ancient human hobby, but we don’t appear to be very good at it.</i></div><p>My own take is that I read the same tea leaves Jacobson does. I get
the points Hansen and Simons have raised about the curve of acceleration
that global climate catastrophe has entered. And yet, I also recognize
there is a lot of inertia in Earth’s systems and Gaia is trying to mend
as best she can, all the time. </p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ9U6MSlOwU-uHiIRsP-P6hfH4qqjJeDP7KUolJWsurPIDEg93fPzLDV1wExoGhSus6lgOdFWblLpY4U-4YBhTJwB0X1MBYSKQOJ_4zpfrhg8EIWEuXgoo6srxzYF318-hWZu8K1GF_C2biFQdGy7P_1gk7t71D6foCOyAz6AX9t9viLIfOoGksk68e9Sc/s614/NYTdoombed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="515" data-original-width="614" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ9U6MSlOwU-uHiIRsP-P6hfH4qqjJeDP7KUolJWsurPIDEg93fPzLDV1wExoGhSus6lgOdFWblLpY4U-4YBhTJwB0X1MBYSKQOJ_4zpfrhg8EIWEuXgoo6srxzYF318-hWZu8K1GF_C2biFQdGy7P_1gk7t71D6foCOyAz6AX9t9viLIfOoGksk68e9Sc/s320/NYTdoombed.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Harper wrote,
“Transformation or extinction have been nature’s invariable
alternatives.” Maybe we will get lucky. Maybe an errant genes similar to
that of the autistic wolf <a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-great-pause-week-47-downside-ofdogs.html" rel="">from whom all modern dogs are descended</a><span>
(sociability genes WBSCR17, GTF2I and GTF2IRD1) will suddenly appear
and transform the next generation of homo. Maybe we will all start
singing </span><em>Aquarius</em><span>.</span><p></p><p><span>I’m not in favor of gene manipulation. I think we already have
an altruistic gene and a heroic action gene. My efforts now are to
muster those genes into service—to help Gaia mend. That may mean having
fewer children and grandchildren. It may mean shutting down fossil
mining and drilling and those damned nuclear whack-a-moles. I don’t
think it means putting an end to Brian von Herzen’s </span><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2023/10/if-kelp-falls-in-forest-and-no-onehears.html" rel="">re-greening of the marine food web</a><span> or John D. Liu’s </span><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2021/06/the-great-change-week-66-sandy-deserts.html" rel="">ecosystem regeneration camps</a><span>.
I don’t think it should stop us from creating more ecovillages,
eco-districts, and eco-regions and showing the way to live in harmony
with Earth and each other, practically, and with heart. </span></p><p>There is plenty of work to do, and all of it is rewarding, for however long we have.</p><p> <span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p><strong></strong></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjLCxfLew7X6HVhv-B4yzR1WODNGbLqmtX84LGf2ow-NC1I6dP-it5ZVUqc1Q2S_nrRMN9Pfj2ZuSuzFDfNBUlgb_vds4H9n_Z20SQ6or3xbMfj8bhkFXQjhUiOgA6YlLxYTWgp7GBi2id6ZRW1IbZ3fnN_FXrNhayD5QBpbeGTb8-xdIZcVOh5ZZ0VEz5/s800/methane2023.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjLCxfLew7X6HVhv-B4yzR1WODNGbLqmtX84LGf2ow-NC1I6dP-it5ZVUqc1Q2S_nrRMN9Pfj2ZuSuzFDfNBUlgb_vds4H9n_Z20SQ6or3xbMfj8bhkFXQjhUiOgA6YlLxYTWgp7GBi2id6ZRW1IbZ3fnN_FXrNhayD5QBpbeGTb8-xdIZcVOh5ZZ0VEz5/s320/methane2023.png" width="320" /></a></strong></div><strong><br />There is a growing recognition</strong><span> that a viable
path forward is towards a new carbon economy, one that goes beyond zero
emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle backwards — taking CO2
from the atmosphere and ocean and burying it in the ground. The triple
bottom line of this new economy is antifragility, regeneration, and
resilience.</span><p></p><p>Meanwhile, let’s end these wars. We support
peace in the West Bank and Gaza and the efforts by the Center for
Constitutional Rights, National Lawyers Guild, Government of South
Africa and others to bring an immediate cessation to the war. Global
Village Institute has sponsored the Green Kibbutz network in Israel and
the Marda Permaculture Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years and will
continue to do so, with your assistance. We aid Ukrainian families
seeking refuge in ecovillages and permaculture farms along the Green
Road and work to heal collective trauma through the Pocket Project. You
can donate by directing donations to us at ecovillage@thefarm.org. You
can read all about it on the Global Village Institute website
(GVIx.org). Thank you for your support.</p><p><em>Help me get my blog
posted every week. All Patreon donations and Blogger, Substack and
Medium subscriptions are needed and welcomed. For reasons unrevealed to
us, Meta, Facebook and Instagram have blocked our accounts. You are how
we make this happen. Your contributions can be made to Global Village
Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on
Patreon get an autographed book off each first press run. Please help if
you can.</em></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqa7MxADRRMAc2huCavCaNrzBPFDMZlekfL-QcGiHNIRizn09g_e6OUNKE6lMJfP1kQPlKfB9xFnVsDp6yZZZWgAQfRPuvHNkGofTLo-5mWxuiYS98u94JB_gn18SZhxBhoCsyj2RVuuVUzJIekbM4WO2p6kXvx2yjJyIgqKuZmEgUsGXmxNJCTHYUI8ci/s800/AlbertEDEpromo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqa7MxADRRMAc2huCavCaNrzBPFDMZlekfL-QcGiHNIRizn09g_e6OUNKE6lMJfP1kQPlKfB9xFnVsDp6yZZZWgAQfRPuvHNkGofTLo-5mWxuiYS98u94JB_gn18SZhxBhoCsyj2RVuuVUzJIekbM4WO2p6kXvx2yjJyIgqKuZmEgUsGXmxNJCTHYUI8ci/w200-h200/AlbertEDEpromo.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>Following that, I will be in Santa Barbara for the <a href="https://www.lobero.org/events/eco-hero-award-2024-2/" rel="">2024 Eco-Hero Award.</a><span> Y’all are invited!</span><p></p><p></p><blockquote>Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share.</blockquote><p></p><p>#RestorationGeneration</p><p>“There
are the good tipping points, the tipping points in public consciousness
when it comes to addressing this crisis, and I think we are very close
to that.”</p><p>— Climate Scientist Michael Mann, January 13, 2021.
</p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-17301756794010103652024-02-11T06:00:00.001-06:002024-02-11T06:00:00.136-06:00Dissecting Doom<div><div style="text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"><a href="">"</a><i>To recover Earth's habitable climate, save the whales</i><a href="">"</a></p><p class="graf graf--p" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcsdcuoSd8MLNttjrqJ_lMnLN7dwxi_VCGODhPHcS2YWJKiNW3fLxdTzWKym8ghuCigAuY5yFbFWXDQpBCE7p1kCcC37P94nIfot-T0Pq3BNILCiAxZzEsupDTOifSUHoWXUYjwLXpjT84E8W0zbuGbACIhjEcArh9vXBCswRlkkQUpbeIl8qs71tzQWt3/s1024/whalesharknets.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcsdcuoSd8MLNttjrqJ_lMnLN7dwxi_VCGODhPHcS2YWJKiNW3fLxdTzWKym8ghuCigAuY5yFbFWXDQpBCE7p1kCcC37P94nIfot-T0Pq3BNILCiAxZzEsupDTOifSUHoWXUYjwLXpjT84E8W0zbuGbACIhjEcArh9vXBCswRlkkQUpbeIl8qs71tzQWt3/w640-h640/whalesharknets.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><br /></strong><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" style="text-align: left;"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Leon Simons</strong> (<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8" href="https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8</a>) is a scientist working on aerosol cooling and ocean thermal dynamics. He is part of the Club of Rome Netherlands. He appeared on the UN’s <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://youtu.be/NXDWpBlPCY8" href="https://youtu.be/NXDWpBlPCY8" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Sustainable Development Solutions Network</a> (SDSN) channel three months ago, Nate Hagen’s<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/" href="https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> Great Simplification</a> January 17 and then Dan Miller’s weekly <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://youtu.be/XCPf8vvedSI" href="https://youtu.be/XCPf8vvedSI" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Climate Chat</a>.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ae00" style="text-align: left;">For the past few years, he has been filling the Twitterverse with charts like this:</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ae00" style="text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl0USBH0PIVY1yAgeFdX184B12aikItlGoJ4GjHJVUVTQMsCQAJopRsdXIwET_-mgufIvBKAd9Xbl0ty7ZaO221_whqhhEI2YbSjHD8nkEN5OG41oyLIQoTWe6-vOxeePKX2qilElCkUrXmGx4BcDZg7SnFzgdjnjrIMiVDbfCZy32mhB-y0OIezk7O_by/s679/SSTfeb2024.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="679" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl0USBH0PIVY1yAgeFdX184B12aikItlGoJ4GjHJVUVTQMsCQAJopRsdXIwET_-mgufIvBKAd9Xbl0ty7ZaO221_whqhhEI2YbSjHD8nkEN5OG41oyLIQoTWe6-vOxeePKX2qilElCkUrXmGx4BcDZg7SnFzgdjnjrIMiVDbfCZy32mhB-y0OIezk7O_by/w400-h295/SSTfeb2024.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><p class="graf graf--p" name="ef53"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Feb 2024</i></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table> </p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ae00" style="text-align: left;">Since the strong regulations on sulfur pollution from ships went into effect in 2020, solar radiation absorbed by Earth has increased about 3 Watts per meter squared in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Commercial shipping, it turns out, had been geoengineering a cooler planet by pumping sulfur dioxide into the lower atmosphere, reflecting sunlight back to space. Contrails do that too, only higher up. When ship emissions suddenly stopped, what occurred was exactly what the anti-geoengineers have been warning us about — <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.amazon.com/Termination-Shock-Novel-Neal-Stephenson-ebook/dp/B08WLWC6GZ/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=termination+shock&qid=1707234903&sr=8-1" href="https://www.amazon.com/Termination-Shock-Novel-Neal-Stephenson-ebook/dp/B08WLWC6GZ/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=termination+shock&qid=1707234903&sr=8-1" rel="noopener" target="_blank">termination shock</a>. The same happened in the days following 9–11 when air traffic was grounded over North America. If you don’t yet believe aerosol reduction contributed to the weather extremes the world witnessed in 2023 (and many well-informed scientists still don’t), just wait because maritime regulations are doubling down in 2024, and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/sectors/transport/ai-cuts-climate-warming-contrails-of-planes-by-54-google-study/" href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/sectors/transport/ai-cuts-climate-warming-contrails-of-planes-by-54-google-study/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">AI-assisted greening of air travel</a> will also start to curtail contrails.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ae00" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7mDQ7_9qXU3hjca_35BynEcCpmszg9s9MDR5ukhttMRTHR4R5SJ3_j0buX6tLHmPWPuH4mVKMSxJNM7mJeFd03krnPK5n8NAxLsUqudghmRfjqibyiA3hS8JTDcPevGuAPn_uxQEKY3Ih9CclaGoqQMcTsTMStMZmeJhXUi0HX3myJm1xvg8GzaCn0FS1/s732/contrails.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="732" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7mDQ7_9qXU3hjca_35BynEcCpmszg9s9MDR5ukhttMRTHR4R5SJ3_j0buX6tLHmPWPuH4mVKMSxJNM7mJeFd03krnPK5n8NAxLsUqudghmRfjqibyiA3hS8JTDcPevGuAPn_uxQEKY3Ih9CclaGoqQMcTsTMStMZmeJhXUi0HX3myJm1xvg8GzaCn0FS1/s320/contrails.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> What does 3 Watts per square meter mean? Earth has an imbalance between energy (light) gained and energy (heat) lost. In 2021, the imbalance was the equivalent of 800,000 atomic bombs being detonated into the ocean every day, 300 million Hiroshimas per year. It was not enough that we had nuked remote coral reefs at Bikini and Eniwetok, now we’re nuking <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/01/literally-off-the-charts-global-coral-reef-heat-stress-monitor-forced-to-add-new-alerts-as-temperatures-rise?CMP=share_btn_tw" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/01/literally-off-the-charts-global-coral-reef-heat-stress-monitor-forced-to-add-new-alerts-as-temperatures-rise?CMP=share_btn_tw" rel="noopener" target="_blank">all the corals in the ocean </a>simultaneously.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="93a9" style="text-align: left;">You can’t do that for long before consequences arrive. The ocean absorbs more than half of greenhouse gases and takes up 80% of the excess heat. When we hear about fisheries collapsing and corals bleaching, we are only seeing a small part of what’s going on underwater.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="2169" style="text-align: left;"><span><a name='more'></a></span>The Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.<span><!--more--></span></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="ad20" style="text-align: left;">Nine years ago, two independent filmmakers began putting out free shorts to educate people about ecosystems and the secrets they hold: <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">How Whales Change Climate; How Wolves Change Rivers; How Devils Heal Forests; How Trees Talk; The Hidden Lives of Bees.</em> The first of those, about humpback whales, was narrated by <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Guardian</em> columnist, George Monbiot.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ae00" style="text-align: left;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="321" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M18HxXve3CM" width="455" youtube-src-id="M18HxXve3CM"></iframe></div><br /><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="bed5" style="text-align: left;">If you did not pause reading four minutes to watch that video, Monbiot concludes by saying:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>When whales were at their historical populations, before great numbers of them were killed, it seems that they might have been responsible for removing tens of millions of tons of carbon from the atmosphere every year.<br /></i><br /><i>Whales change the climate.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="ec77" style="text-align: left;">In their 2024 NASA paper, “<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha09020b.html" href="https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha09020b.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Global Warming in the Pipeline</a>,” NASA’s James Hansen, Leon Simons and a dozen other prominent scientists indicated that 4.8°C warming is already baked in the cake. It’s been masked by aerosols. Take away the aerosols and voila! With sulfur rules in place, we blew through the Paris target of 1.5°C in 2023 and now have 2°C in our sights. Hansen <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://youtu.be/NXDWpBlPCY8" href="https://youtu.be/NXDWpBlPCY8" rel="noopener" target="_blank">told a UN network interviewer,</a> Jeffrey Sachs:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>You’re still getting some warming from additions to the imbalance that occurred 100 years ago but as we show quantitatively in the paper, [we can] expect at least a 50% increase in the warming rate and that’s what we will we will soon find out.</i><br /></div></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: center;"><i>***</i><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>You know one Watt per meter squared is an enormous forcing to try to overcome. I mentioned that if you want to do it by extracting CO2 it costs you more than a hundred trillion dollars. It’s not going to happen. So young people need to understand what they are being handed by the older generations.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="d1bb" style="text-align: left;"><span class="graf-dropCap">If</span> you have been following this blog for the past 17 years, recent extreme weather events come as no surprise. The IPCC told us ten years ago that at 1.5°C warming, about 14 percent of Earth’s population will be exposed to severe heatwaves at least once in five years, while at 2 degrees, that number jumps to 37 percent. About 420 million people will be forced to choose: suffer extreme heat or move.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7058" style="text-align: left;">If you think there are immigration problems now, just wait. Longer heat waves and dry spells will affect the most densely populated regions. The closer you are to the equator, the hotter it will be, but the closer you are to the poles, the more extreme the change will be. People in river basins will be particularly vulnerable. The frequency, intensity and amount of heavy precipitation will keep rising. People in normally arid climates may find their refreshing seasonal rains gone altogether.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1702" style="text-align: left;">Pollinating insects, such as bees, hoverflies and blowflies that support and maintain human food supply, will vanish. Trees at the boundaries of boreal forests will die. Instabilities in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will bring multi-meter (greater than 6 feet) sea level rise, inundating coastal cities. Loss of mangrove wetlands will add to atmospheric carbon — as is happening in the Everglades and elsewhere — and remove protection from storms, waves and beach erosion. The ocean will become more acidic and less oxygenated, auguring still more extinctions and dead zones. Those are at 1.5 to 2.0 on the Centigrade scale, but we are on track for 3 to 5 this century. It’s not looking promising for our children and grandchildren.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="9b32" style="text-align: left;">In an earlier Climate Chat, marine biologist Brian von Herzen related:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Isn’t the answer we need orders of magnitude more blue whales then? Yes, exactly! But how does that happen? That happens because this is a process by which you increase the krill population as well. And at the moment, there’s a very good krill population around the Southern Ocean, around the Antarctic, and also around the Arctic, but not many other parts of the world. The Arabian Sea has a fair bit. Not many other parts of the world have enough krill to sustain a large population.</i></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><br />The blue whales are now down to probably less than 1 percent of the population they were at 400 years ago. Humanity’s first oil discovery was that these whales that live down below the surface of the sea, where it’s very cold, have a large amount of blubber to sustain themselves, and that was our first oil. And so we stripped the seas of whales, and the result is that we were taking out this circular process that the whales were essentially responsible for.</i></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><br />The whales were a big part of our carbon sink but there’s another point. They were part of creating this food stuff — [fertilized plankton] — for the fish larvae to create this great population. If we look at the stories of sailors from 400 years ago, they knew that wherever they were traveling in the ocean they would catch fish. It’s not quite like that today. So I think the point I’m making is this is an amazing potential for restoring biomass to the oceans, but at the same time taking up vast amounts of carbon.</i></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><br />How much carbon dioxide do I think we could capture? If we were to put this artificial whale poo — [fertilized plankton] — if I can use that phrase, on the surface of the oceans, and let’s suppose we did it to 2–3 percent of the deep ocean surface. How much carbon dioxide are we likely to fully sequester? Probably, minimally, 3 billion tons a year, maybe maximally 12 billion, 13 billion tons a year. [All anthropogenic emissions were 40 billion tons in 2023, or 50 billion if you count equivalent trace gases].</i></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><br />There’s no other way of capturing that amount of carbon dioxide and sequestering it. I do believe that we might have to continue doing this for 40, 50 years, at which point we’ve got the whale population back up, and as you were saying, we leave the whales to do it, but we need to increase the baleen whales, or the ones with this blubber, we need to increase their population dramatically</i>.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXwoWxdvDvu6tLOVoI6VFgSAlXGz_bfyqFec-C2n1jWf4FxxrISjMwJSVdHQ6t4j9h9-X2z59pseudZRYUVgd86_jOk9tD1euVErH4E5Uh3OrQYPdAAzohWIjxHXd4zeuzYvgGBfO_EhWnuy-8yRTqbTtsikwxkAY_ALCeIpT2eHbD1g9wSuoaUbxx4fjn/s1000/1%20million%20trees.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXwoWxdvDvu6tLOVoI6VFgSAlXGz_bfyqFec-C2n1jWf4FxxrISjMwJSVdHQ6t4j9h9-X2z59pseudZRYUVgd86_jOk9tD1euVErH4E5Uh3OrQYPdAAzohWIjxHXd4zeuzYvgGBfO_EhWnuy-8yRTqbTtsikwxkAY_ALCeIpT2eHbD1g9wSuoaUbxx4fjn/s320/1%20million%20trees.jpg" width="256" /></a></div></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="eb57" style="text-align: left;">Von Herzen walks the talk, building prototype kelp farms in the Pacific Ocean; nurseries for the marine food chain he speaks of.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e011" style="text-align: left;">Will we restore the baleen whale population before the ocean becomes inhospitable to them? Probably not. They may all die of plastic polymer gut microbiome if not starvation. We can likely add them to the growing list of extinct species, despite von Herzen’s best efforts. But this we know: The ocean absorbs 80 percent of global warming. It could also provide 80 percent of the solution.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="9da3" style="text-align: left;">I’ll continue this in this space next week as I continue dissecting doomism with a look at Professor Eliot Jacobson’s interview on Climate Chat last Sunday. Please rejoin me.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ae00" style="text-align: left;"> <br /></p><br /></div><i><br /></i><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span><!--more--></span>Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share it.<span><!--more--></span></i></div><p style="text-align: left;"> </p><p class="graf graf--p"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"></strong></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimTprRZX2ttovwU4zpcrxKQucUwjPfSxdQ_GbTDfeVGlAbGOUCE_72MEwl7ogoEIibPP1KjWhyphenhyphenOW4cNur9zEJxGCUESqhUGNNlroAeFaQKhwBTfvrlVtpQEM3nTl50eMfWvpG1xBRLCWbB3vFzARRbYVwmgwlzve_lKBbRyO1cGpfBzZ3ithyphenhyphenfGYz5OBlr/s1600/Gaza.ageOfCities.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1111" data-original-width="1600" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimTprRZX2ttovwU4zpcrxKQucUwjPfSxdQ_GbTDfeVGlAbGOUCE_72MEwl7ogoEIibPP1KjWhyphenhyphenOW4cNur9zEJxGCUESqhUGNNlroAeFaQKhwBTfvrlVtpQEM3nTl50eMfWvpG1xBRLCWbB3vFzARRbYVwmgwlzve_lKBbRyO1cGpfBzZ3ithyphenhyphenfGYz5OBlr/s320/Gaza.ageOfCities.jpg" width="320" /></a></strong></div><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">There is a growing recognition that a viable path forward</strong> is towards a new carbon economy, one that goes beyond zero emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle backward — taking CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean and putting it in the ground. The triple bottom line of this new economy is antifragility, regeneration, and resilience.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="59de">Meanwhile, let’s end these wars. We support peace in the West Bank and Gaza and the efforts by the Center for Constitutional Rights, National Lawyers Guild, Government of South Africa and others to bring an immediate cessation to war. Global Village Institute has sponsored the Green Kibbutz network in Israel and the Marda Permaculture Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years and will continue to do so with your assistance. We aid Ukrainian families seeking refuge in ecovillages and permaculture farms along the Green Road and work to heal collective trauma through the Pocket Project. You can donate by directing donations to us at ecovillage@thefarm.org. You can read about it on the Global Village Institute website (GVIx.org). Thank you for your support.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="b14c"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Help me get my blog posted every week. All Patreon donations and Blogger, Substack and Medium subscriptions are needed and welcomed. For reasons unrevealed to us, Meta, Facebook and Instagram have blocked our accounts. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions can be made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on Patreon get an autographed book off each first press run. Please help if you can.</em></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="d908"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXjU7UcYNy9PVp8QKOCFA0SyZRjZUdmf5SZjsGwriRPIcmDIk4LkO14vhJhu70rT1EUpLnE2GsQk-xSC15qncyBSECki4X_MD0en-mQ5J9PzTDeSMjF_O7G68mkqjt_zmZd5rkwX816urg-nr4_pk4LotyFg4gyyFDPM6NTCh_P01X3MOwADggVWTQZBZk/s1080/USBIspeakingAD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1080" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXjU7UcYNy9PVp8QKOCFA0SyZRjZUdmf5SZjsGwriRPIcmDIk4LkO14vhJhu70rT1EUpLnE2GsQk-xSC15qncyBSECki4X_MD0en-mQ5J9PzTDeSMjF_O7G68mkqjt_zmZd5rkwX816urg-nr4_pk4LotyFg4gyyFDPM6NTCh_P01X3MOwADggVWTQZBZk/w200-h200/USBIspeakingAD.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>If you are interested in climate solutions, one of the world’s most effective conferences will be in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.biocharconference.com" href="https://www.biocharconference.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Sacramento February 12–15</a>. Contact me directly for a $200 discount on registration. Some of the latest inventions will be in the exhibit hall where Global Village Institute will have a booth.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ce79">Following that, I will be in Santa Barbara for the <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.lobero.org/events/eco-hero-award-2024-2/" href="https://www.lobero.org/events/eco-hero-award-2024-2/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">2024 Eco-Hero Award.</a> Y’all are invited!</p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="5295"><i>Thank you for reading <strong class="markup--strong markup--pullquote-strong"><span class="markup--em markup--pullquote-em">The Great Change.</span></strong> This post is public so feel free to share.</i></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="d2ee">#RestorationGeneration</p><p class="graf graf--p graf--startsWithDoubleQuote" name="17cc"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">“There are the good tipping points, the tipping points in public consciousness when it comes to addressing this crisis, and I think we are very close to that.”</em></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="9091">— Climate Scientist Michael Mann, January 13, 2021.</p><blockquote style="text-align: left;">
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-65609903555821315702024-02-04T06:00:00.029-06:002024-02-04T06:00:00.129-06:00Pardon the Kodachrome<div><div><div><p><a href="">"</a><i>Not all may be as it appears. In order to find peace, we must first find justice.</i><a href="">"</a></p><p><i><span> </span></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBwSNydMb_A5NQ__4ol25TRuaOJYB66WtFJs2ALGdMOGDcXZH8NwjoAbfD8sG1hVPnlDuyFKUlk6TIPBKBn_QC-FRVTUdEFpNy6LwyedC6QS70Hd67qs3t1YPCNZEiYJfqz-LAsoVNxKXyJP8NxFX8OyiA35ySMTOFoN8BZjw7Qsr6VTa22cN9lhbC0CH-/s2686/cartoonkodachromeICJinvert.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1498" data-original-width="2686" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBwSNydMb_A5NQ__4ol25TRuaOJYB66WtFJs2ALGdMOGDcXZH8NwjoAbfD8sG1hVPnlDuyFKUlk6TIPBKBn_QC-FRVTUdEFpNy6LwyedC6QS70Hd67qs3t1YPCNZEiYJfqz-LAsoVNxKXyJP8NxFX8OyiA35ySMTOFoN8BZjw7Qsr6VTa22cN9lhbC0CH-/w640-h356/cartoonkodachromeICJinvert.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></div><i><span></span></i><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span></span></i></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><span>When I think back on all the crap I've learned in high school</span><br /><span>It's a wonder I can think at all</span><br /><span>Though my lack of education hasn't hurt me much</span><br /><span>I can read the writings on the walls</span></i></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><span>Kodachrome, they give us those nice bright colors</span><br /><span>They give us the greens of summers</span><br /><span>Makes you think all the world's a sunny day, oh yeah</span></i></p><p style="text-align: right;"><span>— Paul Simon, </span><i>Kodachrome,</i><span> (1973)</span></p><p><b>In 1973, Paul Simon walked into Muscle Shoals Sound Studio</b><span> with his guitar and the sheet music to </span><i>Take Me to the Mardi Gras.</i><span>
He was looking for that uniquely Southern combination of R&B, soul
and country music that had backed up Aretha Franklin, Wilson Pickett,
Percy Sledge and the Staple Singers. Imagine his surprise to learn that
the Alabama studio’s four musicians, Barry Beckett, Roger Hawkins, David
Hood and Jimmy Johnson, a.k.a, “The Swampers,” were all white.
Kodachrome indeed.</span></p><p><span>When the producer </span><a href="https://ultimateclassicrock.com/paul-simon-kodachrome/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral" rel="">Phil Ramone called up Beckett </a><span>and said Simon wanted to record with them, Beckett replied, "How much do you want us to pay you?” </span></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><span>Now, Muscle Shoals has got the Swampers</span><br /><span>Lord, they get me off so much</span><br /><span>They pick me up when I'm feeling blue</span><br /></i></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><span>Now, how 'bout you?</span></i></p><p style="text-align: right;"><span>— Lynyrd Skynryd, </span><i>Sweet Home Alabama </i><span>(1974)</span></p><p><span>Simon booked the studio for four days to cut </span><i>Mardi Gras</i><span>
but the Swampers surprised him and got the track he wanted perfectly on
the second take. With three days to spare, Paul Simon sat on a stool
with his guitar and noodled, needing something for the B-side. </span></p><p><span>Hawkins told </span><i><a href="https://www.moderndrummer.com/2017/04/roger-hawkins-pulse-muscle-shoals/" rel="">Modern Drummer</a></i><span> in
2017, ”He sat down in a chair with his guitar and he said, ‘Fellas, I'm
going to play you some songs. Just tell me which ones you like.’ He
played and we said, ‘Yeah! That </span><i>'Kodachrome'</i><span> sounds pretty good.’” </span></p><p>The
song takes its name from the extravibrant color saturation of the
popular 1970s camera film. As the lyric says, it made you think the
whole world is a sunny day.</p><p>As I think back to my memories of
childhood, as my little sister played with her doll house, my
neighborhood buddies and I would play versions of Cops and Robbers or
Cowboys and Indians. I never much liked Cowboys and Indians. I’d like to
think I sensed the implicit genocide rationalization I was being
spoon-fed, but honestly, I would have been too young and privileged to
grasp it. </p><p><span>The underlying premise of these games was that
there were good guys and bad guys, and the good guys always won. That
was the Kodachromed part. Growing up in the 50s and 60s, I saw the black
and white images from beatings at the lunch counter sit-ins and the
Freedom Riders bus in Nashville and later, Bloody Sunday on the Edmond
Pettit Bridge. The first song I learned on guitar was </span><i>The Times They Are a' Changing</i><span>. At 17, I watched U.S. Marshalls escorting little </span><a href="https://www.tampabay.com/things-to-do/visualarts/civil-rights-icon-ruby-bridges-hall-discusses-norman-rockwells-famous/2226397/" rel="">Ruby Bridges</a><span> shown in the classic painting by Norman Rockwell for </span><i>Look</i><span> magazine
in 1964. These impressions reinforced my embed that “the arc of the
moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.”</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzafVK6AoM99ajy7q2KW68xeq65VgfctntjhtqEEmzBExnSvrERAr9MOwfrUCPkNzwmN8DF0VUBFSzPhw92Ftgf7oGP2xGb-499a5b2BF71_av4_mTj-hGrXfZrc3w0B0N0M-Bzgy-OpFUOHfegk65J-G9GRdTNQkezwxtpfpC5_LjMtxpa55bqkALUgwf/s1531/rockwellmontage.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="1531" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzafVK6AoM99ajy7q2KW68xeq65VgfctntjhtqEEmzBExnSvrERAr9MOwfrUCPkNzwmN8DF0VUBFSzPhw92Ftgf7oGP2xGb-499a5b2BF71_av4_mTj-hGrXfZrc3w0B0N0M-Bzgy-OpFUOHfegk65J-G9GRdTNQkezwxtpfpC5_LjMtxpa55bqkALUgwf/w640-h198/rockwellmontage.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span><br /></span><p></p><p><span>So it was that on September 22, 2023 when the </span><a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-senator-robert-menendez-his-wife-and-three-new-jersey-businessmen-charged-bribery" rel="">Justice Department indicted the chair</a><span>
of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a Blue State Democrat, and
his wife on charges of conspiracy to commit bribery, fraud and extortion
(and as unregistered foreign agents of the Egyptian government), it
appeared to me the rule of law had once more been affirmed. But then,
when a District Judge in Florida, the US Supreme Court and the 11th
Circuit began to drag their heels on rulings that would keep a
presidential candidate from trial for his various indictments before the
next election, my sense of justice was pained. Likewise, when the US,
UK, Germany, France, Japan, Switzerland, Canada, Netherlands, Italy,
Australia and Finland all </span><a href="https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2024-01-30/war-un-refugee-israel-genocide/" rel="">withdrew funding</a><span> from the United Nations’ Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Gaza, </span>citing allegations <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2024-01-30/war-un-refugee-israel-genocide/" href="https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2024-01-30/war-un-refugee-israel-genocide/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">(possibly induced by IDF torture of Palestinan prisoners)</a> by John Bolton and Israel that some of its 40,000 employees <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/03/world/middleeast/united-nations-gaza-unrwa.html" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/03/world/middleeast/united-nations-gaza-unrwa.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">participated in the Hamas October 7 atrocity</a>, my sense of justice was offended.</p><p><span>In
1965, I studied pre-law, taking courses on the Constitution and ethics
at the Marshall School of Syracuse University. I went on to law school
and later practiced for some decades, mainly doing federal appellate
work. Some of my cases—involving the abuse of citizens by various
agencies in control of nuclear energy and weapons or the rights of
native peoples—tempted me to pursue justice at the World Court, but I
lacked a willing government as a client. So it was that when South
Africa stepped forward to champion the rights of Gaza’s children, I
rejoiced. I poured over the briefs. I watched the two days of televised
arguments and was thrilled by the </span><a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/icj-issues-provisional-measures-in-south-africa-v.-israel" rel="">Court’s order</a><span> handed down last week. </span></p><p><a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-international-court-of-justice's-interim-measures-to-prevent-genocide-in-gaza" rel="">South Africa had nailed it</a><span>.</span><br /></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>(From paragraph 46) While figures relating to the Gaza Strip cannot be independently verified, recent information indicates that 25,700 Palestinians have been killed, over 63,000 injuries have been reported, over 360,000 housing units have been destroyed or partially damaged and approximately 1.7 million persons have been internally displaced.</i></div><p>In
paragraph 49, the court went on to quote senior officials at length,
including Philippe Lazzarini, Commissioner General of UNRWA:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>In the past 100 days, sustained bombardment across the Gaza Strip caused the mass displacement of a population that is in a state of flux - constantly uprooted and forced to leave overnight, only to move to places that are just as unsafe. This has been the largest displacement of the Palestinian people since 1948.</i><br /><br /><i>This war affected more than 2 million people - the entire population of Gaza.</i><br /><br /><i>Many will carry lifelong scars, both physical and psychological. The vast majority, including children, are deeply traumatized.</i><br /><br /><i>Overcrowded and unsanitary UNRWA shelters have now become 'home' to more than 1.4 million people. They lack everything, from food to hygiene to privacy. People live in inhumane conditions where diseases are spreading, including among children.</i><br /><br /><i>They live through the unlivable, with the clock ticking fast towards famine.</i><br /><br /><i>The plight of children in Gaza is especially heartbreaking. An entire generation of children is traumatized and will take years to heal. Thousands have been killed, maimed, and orphaned. Hundreds of thousands are deprived of education. Their future is in jeopardy, with far-reaching and long-lasting consequences. </i></div></div><p>Like the
US ex-president, Israel’s leaders could not help but blurt out their
intentions, and those, too, were cited by the Court:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="237" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cim8A6fHIAM" width="424" youtube-src-id="cim8A6fHIAM"></iframe></div><br /> <p></p><p><b>Yoav Gallant, Defense Minister:</b><span> "complete siege" … "no electricity, no food, no fuel" … "everything closed.” Speaking to Israeli troops on the Gaza border: "</span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/only-the-strong-survive-gantzs-new-campaign-videos-laud-his-idf-bona-fides/" rel="">I have released all restraints</a><span>...
You saw what we are fighting against. We are fighting human animals.
This is the ISIS of Gaza. This is what we are fighting against... Gaza
won't return to what it was before. There will be no Hamas. We will
eliminate everything. If it doesn't take one day, it will take a week,
it will take weeks or even months, we will reach all places.”</span></p><p><b>Isaac Herzog, President of Israel:</b><span>
"It is an entire nation out there that is responsible. It is not true
this rhetoric about civilians not aware, not involved. It is absolutely
not true. They could have risen up. They could have fought against that
evil regime </span><a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2023/11/21/world/israel-failed-policy/" rel="">which took over Gaza in a coup d'état</a><span>.
But we are at war. We are at war. We are at war. We are defending our
homes. We are protecting our homes. That's the truth. And when a nation
protects its home, it fights. And we will fight until we break their
backbone.”</span></p><p><b>Israel Katz, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure:</b><span> "They will not receive a drop of water or a single battery until they leave the world."</span></p><p><span>It </span><a href="https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2024-01-30/war-un-refugee-israel-genocide/" rel="">bears remembering</a><span> that: </span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>UNRWA is separate from the UN’s main refugee agency, the UNHCR, and deals only with Palestinian refugees. Although Israel does not want you to know it, the reason for there being two UN refugee agencies is because Israel and its western backers insisted on the division back in 1948.</i><br /><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: center;"><i>***</i><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>Israel’s efforts to get rid of UNRWA are not new. They date back many years. For a number of reasons, the UN refugee agency is a thorn in Israel’s side – and all the more so in Gaza. Not least, it has provided a lifeline to Palestinians there, keeping them fed and cared for, and providing jobs to many thousands of local people in a place where unemployment rates are among the highest in the world. It has invested in infrastructure like hospitals and schools that make life in Gaza more bearable, when Israel’s goal has long been to make the enclave uninhabitable. UNRWA’s well-run schools, staffed by local Palestinians, teach the children their own history, about where their grandparents once lived, and of Israel’s campaign of dispossession and ethnic cleansing against them.</i></div></div><p><span>Former British Ambassador Craig Murray, who attended the proceedings, </span><a href="https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/01/has-international-law-survived-or-has-the-western-political-class-killed-it/" rel="">explained what happened</a><span> after the judgment was read: </span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>All of Israel’s arguments were lost. Every one. The substantial effort Israel put into having the case dismissed on procedural grounds was brushed aside. So was self-defence. And in its findings of the facts, the Court plainly found to be untrue the Israeli lies about avoidance of civilian casualties, the responsibility of Hamas for the damage to infrastructure, and the access of relief aid to Gaza.</i><br /><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: center;"><i>***</i><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>…[T]he immediate response to the ICJ ruling was a coordinated attack by Israel and the combined imperialist powers on UNRWA, designed to accelerate the genocide by stopping aid, to provide a propaganda counter-narrative to the ICJ judgment, and to reduce the credibility of UNRWA’s evidence before the court.</i></div><p><span>Western outlets like </span><i>The New York Times</i><span> and the </span><i>Washington Post</i><span> declared
that Israel won at ICJ because the order did not call for a ceasefire.
It was a distinction without meaning. The Genocide Convention does not
confer that power on the ICJ. Per its actual authority, the Court, by a
vote of 15 to 2, ordered Israel to stop killing Palestinian civilians.
It ordered Israel to stop causing serious bodily or mental harm to
Palestinian civilians. The Court ordered them to stop deliberately
inflicting on Palestinians conditions of life calculated to bring about
their physical destruction in whole or in part, or imposing measures
intended to prevent births. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheRmzzSkBPbOlVQCXfgPZrIY13mHDcv_t_niuojQ0aysMHK31npT1SODi2mZNCAXrAbzb5Cfsu881OlFATABPsBMrk7PshNFMTcRqi9eiUB-8HN_905PGHdXQLQ3N3jp2DyQTIMYeOd6YWGKTAT17JzetIh37HG2SaZCk5lsGzdICOitXljvxq5NIQ84JB/s805/adamsquote.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="159" data-original-width="805" height="79" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheRmzzSkBPbOlVQCXfgPZrIY13mHDcv_t_niuojQ0aysMHK31npT1SODi2mZNCAXrAbzb5Cfsu881OlFATABPsBMrk7PshNFMTcRqi9eiUB-8HN_905PGHdXQLQ3N3jp2DyQTIMYeOd6YWGKTAT17JzetIh37HG2SaZCk5lsGzdICOitXljvxq5NIQ84JB/w400-h79/adamsquote.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span></span><b>I can imagine</b><span> what went on in a conference
room in the Israel wing at the State Department. They knew this was
going to look bad if the US denounced the ICJ. The ruling was delivered
by an American, </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joan_Donoghue" rel="">Joan E. Donoghue</a><span>,
an international legal scholar, former U.S. State Department official,
and now the President (chief judge) of the Court. So instead, they came
up with a ruse: attack Philippe Lazzarini; attack UNRWA; attack the
witnesses. Never mind that UNRWA has had at least 152 staffers killed by
Israel in Gaza to date. UNRWA is now Hamas. The NATO group fell in line
with that narrative. So did the Kodachrome bobbleheads at BBC, CNN,
MSNBC, Fox, etc.</span><p></p><p>Nonetheless, Algeria announced it would
take the order to the UN Security Council for enforcement, which is the
next step. Perhaps the UN General Assembly will suspend Israel, a
relatively toothless punishment. In California, a genocide complicity
suit brought by the Center for Constitutional Rights against Joe Biden
was dismissed on jurisdictional grounds (the judiciary traditionally
gives a wide berth to US foreign policy), but not before the District
Court found that it is plausible that Israel’s conduct amounts to
genocide.” </p><p><span>“There are rare cases in which the preferred outcome is inaccessible to the court. This is one of those cases,” </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/01/genocide-gaza-israel-california-court" rel="">the Court ruled</a><span>, flouting a maxim extending back through English jurisprudence for 300 years or to </span><i>Marbury v. Madison</i><span>
in 1803. When the law bestows a right, it must also extend a remedy for
violations of that right, regardless of whether any other branch has
provided one. </span><i>Ubi jus ibi remedium.</i></p><p>Was I a
younger man, that is the sort of action I would like to be getting
involved with. The Biden Administration’s reply has been… (wait for
it) …absolute presidential immunity. </p><p>One has to wonder what UN
Secretary-General Antonio Guterrez thinks of Joe Biden now, knowing that
he just tried to force the only aid agency working in Gaza to be
terminated until further notice, and it is up to Guterrez to try to keep
it alive.</p><p><span>Back in 2018, for example, the refugee agency was plunged into an existential crisis when Biden’s predecessor </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/31/trump-to-cut-all-us-funding-for-uns-main-palestinian-refugee-programme" rel="">acquiesced</a><span>
to Israeli pressure and cut all its funding. Even after the decision
was reversed, the agency has been limping along financially. It not only
bears responsibility for 2.3 million in Gaza, but </span><a href="https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2024-01-30/war-un-refugee-israel-genocide/" rel="">also for millions of other Palestinian refugees</a><span>
across the region – in the West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. Four
million refugees across the region are at imminent risk of losing food,
health care and schooling.</span></p><p>The Haudensaunee Peacemaker said of justice, </p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The pursuit of peace is not merely the pursuit of the absense of violence, because peace is never achieved until justice is achieved. And justice is not achieved until everyone’s interests are addressed. So, you will never actually finish addressing everyone’s issues. There will always be unfinished business. You can’t achieve peace unless it is accompanied by constant striving to address the issues of justice. This means your job will never end. </i></div><p><span>Commentator Chris Hayes, host of </span><i>All In with Chris Hayes,</i><span> expressed his concern with how justice is being corrupted. On January 26, he said:</span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>We have two sayings about the justice system. They're clichés but you know people use them for a reason and I think they get at the heart of this whole conflict, right?</i><br /><br /><i>One is, “justice delayed is justice denied.” If the legal system moves too slowly, then it can't deliver justice at all.</i><br /><br /><i>And the other idea is “the wheels of justice turn slowly but they grind exceedingly fine.” So, yes the legal system moves slowly, but it gets the right results and it has to grind slowly to grind fine.</i><br /></div><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: center;"><i>***</i><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>That, of course, brings us to the most high-stakes case of all—the four criminal cases against Donald Trump, totaling 91 felony counts. The speed at which these cases move is obviously absolutely critical. This is a zero-sum game. This is a finite thing. There are 284 days left until the election. Every single day Trump and his lawyers are able to delay the proceedings to push back a trial is a victory for the ex-president.</i><br /><br /><i>Now, to her credit, Judge Tanya Chutkin, overseeing the federal case about Trump's attempted coup, has been moving quite efficiently. She set a trial date for March 4th, but the case is on hold while we await the appeals court decision on Trump's immunity argument. It's also clear the slow pace of Trump's cases is already helping him politically, as the Wall Street Journal explains. The former president is proving less vulnerable on a legal front than many of his critics predicted. Trump has raised money on his legal battle, seeing his support grow as he depicts himself as a victim of partisan prosecutors marshaling a crooked justice system to thwart his bid for a second term in the White House.</i></div><p><span>MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, going on </span><i>Inside with Jen Psaki</i><span>, added:</span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>What he's offering is strongman leadership, the end of politics, the end of elections, the end—or the sidelining or domesticating—of the Judiciary and the Congress. He'll be the man in charge. He'll get it done. And that's what he's selling, and that's what they are very eager to buy.</i><br /><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: center;"><i>***</i><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>There's nothing magic about the American populace that makes us immune to the promises of strongman leadership… These messages have appeal, and there are ways that you can drive a populace toward them:</i><br /></div><ul style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><li><i>You can denigrate the government </i></li><li><i>You can say that government itself is the problem </i></li><li><i>You can make it so the legislative branch never works and is seen as an object of ridicule, pity, and hostility rather than as one of our three branches of government </i></li><li><i>You can challenge the rule of law and say that judges are all biased</i></li><li><i>Flirting with the kinds of conspiracy theories that make people look to mythical fantasies for solving their problems instead of actual government</i></li><li><i>Flirting with paramilitary violence, where you bring violence into the political sphere and normal people are too intimidated to engage in normal political behavior.</i></li></ul><p>The thinking is that if the
Candidate can delay the enforcement of judgments against him until he is
in power, he will skate past them by calling off the prosecutors,
claiming executive privilege, or issuing himself a pardon. This is not
unreasonable logic for this particular felon since the emoluments cases
brought to disgorge him of his ill-gotten White House grift were mooted
by overly tardy procedures and then dismissed.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><blockquote>The
Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts
and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</blockquote><span><!--more--></span><p></p></div><div class="subscribe-widget is-signed-up is-fully-subscribed" data-component-name="SubscribeWidget"><p class="button-wrapper"></p></div></div></div><p><span>Yet,
everyone needs to catch up on a key legal point. Ford lacked the power
to pardon Nixon, just as the present candidate lacks any power to grant
“preemptive pardons” to his first-term minions or to himself. A
"pre-emptive pardon" is a nullity in constitutional law. A pardon can
only be given following a conviction. Otherwise, </span><a href="https://dlib.bc.edu/islandora/object/bc-ir:102172/datastream/PDF/view" rel="">the framers explained</a><span>, pardons that come before trial would prevent the truth from coming to light. </span></p><p><span>The
notion that a president could dispense preemptive pardons like party
favors to political or criminal cronies would have appalled the framers.
In his defense of the soldiers accused of the Boston Massacre, John
Adams, later to become the second President of the United States, </span><a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2345/526" rel="">summed up his case</a><span> to the jury: </span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The law, no passion can disturb. ’Tis void of desire and fear, lust and anger. ’Tis </i>mens sine affectu;<i> written reason; retaining some measure of the divine perfection. It does not enjoin that which pleases a weak, frail man, but without regard to persons, commands that which is good, and punishes evil in all, whether rich, or poor, high or low. ’Tis deaf, inexorable, inflexible.</i></div><p><span>Most
bobbleheads think that whether a President can pardon himself is a grey
area, but they are incorrect. The power of the President in this regard
was curtailed by Adams himself in 1780. He </span><a href="https://dlib.bc.edu/islandora/object/bc-ir:102172/datastream/PDF/view" rel="">made it very clear</a><span>,
both in the Massachusetts Constitution and then in the convention for
the US Constitution, that under no case would the framers accept any
construction that allowed a criminal to pardon or immunize themselves
like some kind of monarch. </span></p><div class="pullquote" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><p><i><span></span></i></p><!--more--><i>As a
result of certain acts or omissions occurring before his resignation
from the Office of President, Richard Nixon has become liable to
possible indictment and trial for offenses against the United States.
Whether or not he shall be so prosecuted depends on findings of the
appropriate grand jury and on the discretion of the authorized
prosecutor. Should an indictment ensue, the accused shall then be
entitled to a fair trial by an impartial jury, as guaranteed to every
individual by the Constitution.</i><p></p></div><div class="pullquote" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: center;"><p><i>***</i></p></div><div class="pullquote" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><p><i>Now, THEREFORE, I,
GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon
power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution,
have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute
pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States
which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken
part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.<span></span></i></p><!--more--><p></p></div><p><b>Consider the 18th Century context.</b><span>
The Puritans and early colonists had very little regard for laws and
lawyers. They had suffered kings, conscriptions and martyrdom. Laws had
often been used to oppress them more than uphold their rights. In the
small-town, tight-knit communities of colonial Massachusetts, there was a
preference for community-resolved disputes, making lawyers largely
unnecessary. Among its first seventy-five graduating classes, only two
Harvard grads became lawyers. Swimming against this tide were advocates
of law that meted justice as the sentinel of liberty. Adams, Jefferson,
Washington, Hamilton, Madison and Franklin espoused a radical,
anti-monarchal idea: a government of laws, not men.</span></p><p>A president is no more exempt than any common criminal. What a radical idea!</p><p>In
this same way, UN conventions, agreements and treaties have been
adopted to create a system of ordered liberty for the world. Among these
is the Genocide Convention that binds presidents like Benjamin
Netanyahu and Joseph Biden. Men may scoff but laws do not.</p><p><span>Sometimes I wish that we were more like the Vulcans in </span><i>Star Trek,</i><span>
as logical as Spock. Then I recall that after coming under Alliance
control, Vulcan became a prison planet where members of the Terran
Rebellion, dissidents, were sent to allow its desolate surface
conditions to determine their fates, a form of genocide.</span></p><p>Eastman
Kodak retired Kodachrome in 2009. Its film business had gone the way of
buggy whips with the advent of horseless carriages.</p><p>The world may
not be as color-saturated, but with persistent and diligent effort, it
can be fair and just. We need to apply the same rules to everyone. In
order to find peace, we must first find justice.</p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><i>References</i></h3><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Peacemaker" rel="">skʌ̃.nːʌ̃.ɾahaːwi</a><span>, “on creating the conditions for peace,” The Great Law of Peace (early 15th century), interpretation by John Mohawk.</span></p><p><span>International
Court of Justice, Order in re: Application of the Convention on the
Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip </span><i>(South Africa v. Israel) </i><span>Request for the Indication of Provisional Measures (January 26, 2024). </span></p><p>Mathews,
Amanda A., “A Government of Laws and Not of Men": John Adams, Attorney,
and the Massachusetts Constitution of 1780, Boston College Electronic
Thesis or Dissertation (2008).</p><p>UNRWA, "The Gaza Strip: 100 days of
death, destruction and displacement", Statement by Philippe Lazzarini,
Commissioner-General of UNRWA (13 Jan. 2024).</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisi7zQ25ActnyFaS5tdbgs7w7RYSvlc6NSXmjoqSYniCCP5dsIl20yeMHlSroCM4CbpJpdWKqxTDs6Thz7AEWYeXyGMg8BmQwTKc-aSgXUvH7WlifWKEbbOW_b8-a1qYu6fcCNXybMLysbKil-2Tsoj6BfSdUKKnQrjDMoHVy1bMCZJR_rlJ_X1YZ7Mvnm/s756/UofGaza.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="756" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisi7zQ25ActnyFaS5tdbgs7w7RYSvlc6NSXmjoqSYniCCP5dsIl20yeMHlSroCM4CbpJpdWKqxTDs6Thz7AEWYeXyGMg8BmQwTKc-aSgXUvH7WlifWKEbbOW_b8-a1qYu6fcCNXybMLysbKil-2Tsoj6BfSdUKKnQrjDMoHVy1bMCZJR_rlJ_X1YZ7Mvnm/w400-h308/UofGaza.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h3 class="g-heading svelte-vu00jj"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/01/world/middleeast/Israel-gaza-war-demolish.html"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Israa University, </i></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>whose campus had been used by Israel as a military
base <br />for ten weeks, being demolished after the army redeployed.</i></span></a></span></h3><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span><!--more--></span> <b>Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</b><span> We support
peace in the West Bank and Gaza and the efforts by the Center for
Constitutional Rights, National Lawyers Guild, Government of South
Africa and others to bring an immediate cessation to the war. Global
Village Institute has sponsored the Green Kibbutz network in the East
Bank and the Marda Permaculture Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years
and will continue to do so, with your assistance. We also aid Ukrainian
families seeking refuge in ecovillages and permaculture farms </span><a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="">along the Green Road</a><span>.
You can donate by directing donations to us at ecovillage@thefarm.org.
There is more information on the Global Village Institute website (</span><a href="http://GVIx.org" rel="">GVIx.org</a><span>). Thank you for your help.</span><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff2492d90-c00a-4dc0-a013-dda89dc05155_156x156.jpeg" rel="" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><picture></picture></div></a></figure></div><p><i>All
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</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-90578395287889172112024-01-28T05:30:00.001-06:002024-01-28T05:30:00.128-06:00The Iowa Flu<p><a href="">"</a><i>Our 4-legged family members are a homegrown source for rapidly morphing zoonotic pathogens</i><a href="">"</a></p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="5507"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjxdL7xyRpmSFz_4bFvcZWbwjOtETcmXQg3mPAHzHNAAOium6-j_dER4MBBzT4QH5VPpT2uHL0ay_LeS6EgohLwZbu7mx-76gXsi4qjSpP5c3s5ANChBA5n6k76OfiZvqz5JOlzfaDdK16EtfogupAF7X9smj7aPhDyACX7z_OB1Tb4NMTsQBY0_DoQKpT/s2406/comicrealisticprairiedogvirions.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1674" data-original-width="2406" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjxdL7xyRpmSFz_4bFvcZWbwjOtETcmXQg3mPAHzHNAAOium6-j_dER4MBBzT4QH5VPpT2uHL0ay_LeS6EgohLwZbu7mx-76gXsi4qjSpP5c3s5ANChBA5n6k76OfiZvqz5JOlzfaDdK16EtfogupAF7X9smj7aPhDyACX7z_OB1Tb4NMTsQBY0_DoQKpT/w400-h279/comicrealisticprairiedogvirions.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>Part 1: A Quaint Life</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="ed67"><b><span class="graf-dropCap">In</span></b><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> the peaceful town of Willow Creek,</strong> nestled in the heart of Western Iowa, life unfolded in the idyllic rhythm of a Midwestern community. The residents took pride in their close-knit society, where everyone knew their neighbors, and life moved at a leisurely pace.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="39c8">Fred and Donna Thompson owned a charming house on Maple Street. At the center of their world was a spirited Cocker Spaniel named Max. With his golden fur and soulful eyes, Max was not just a pet; he was a beloved member of the family.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7eec">One sunny afternoon, as Max frolicked in the backyard, he stumbled upon a peculiar sight — a prairie dog emerging from a burrow near the edge of the property. Unbeknownst to the Thompsons, this seemingly innocent encounter would set in motion a chain of events that would change the world forever.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="5904"></p><blockquote>The Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</blockquote><p></p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="2636">Part 2: The Silent Threat</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="23d8"><b><span class="graf-dropCap">As</span></b><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> the prairie dog vanished underground, </strong>Max sniffed the burrow where he had been seen. The little dog’s otherwise beautiful day suddenly took a sinister turn. The prairie dog’s urine carried an unseen menace, a virus that had quietly evolved in the wild. Max recoiled from the smell, which seemed to bite his nose, shaking off the momentary discomfort, and returned home, blissfully unaware of an invisible threat now coursing through his bloodstream.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="eb7e">Hours passed, and Max’s behavior began to change. He became lethargic. His once-bright eyes clouded with an unnatural haze. He developed intermittent incontinence and a raspy cough. Concerned, the Thompsons rushed him to the local veterinary clinic. As Dr. Lawson examined Max his furrowed brow revealed the severity of the situation.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="077e">The prairie dog’s urine had passed a mysterious virus that spread rapidly through Max’s upper respiratory system. Dr. Lawson did the best he could. He gave the dog a shot of antibiotics and a cough suppressant and sent him home with instructions to keep him comfortable and wait for the bug to pass.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="92bc">At home, Fred and Donna allowed Max to sleep on their bed, not realizing that his house training or the shot he got at the vet would not stop him from urinating into their sheets. The next morning, the Thompsons were heartbroken when they awoke to find Max dead. After they wept their final goodbyes and buried him in their backyard, Donna changed the bed and took the soiled sheets to her washer. As she loaded the sheets she felt a burning sensation in her nose and started to cough.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="82b1">Part 3: Historical Antecedents</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="1fd7"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>S</b></span><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">ince the middle of the 20th century,</strong> pets have more frequently become considered “family members.” As family patterns become more atomized from the shortening of travel time, the digital world, contraception, gender rights, and a host of other factors, house pets poured into an emotional gap. Ignored or forgotten was the potential danger of pet-borne pathogens.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="643d">We have known for a long time that viral diseases such as rabies (mainly from dog trade or travel abroad), feline cowpox, influenza, and emergent noroviruses or rotaviruses can be incubated and transmitted to humans. Bacteria transmitted by bites or scratches can cause illness such as pasteurellosis or cat scratch disease. Depending on age or immune status, this can have severe consequences on human hosts. More pathways are opened by closeness, not to say intimacy, with our pets. We breathe their exhalations. We handle their fur. We clean up after them. Cutaneous contamination with methicillin-resistant <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Staphylococcus aureus, Leptospira spp.,</em> and/or aerosolization of bacteria causing tuberculosis or kennel cough are not unknown, nor are transmissions of gastro-intestinal pathogens such as <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Salmonella</em> or <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Campylobacter.</em> Parasitic and fungal pathogens, such as <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">echinococcosis, leishmaniasis, onchocerciasis,</em> or <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">sporotrichosis,</em> are well known. Yet unknown and unseen may be re-emerging or novel zoonotic transmissions.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>Pet dog and cat populations have substantially increased in the developed world and it is estimated that dogs and cats are present in more than 50% of households in the USA (2012 estimated dog population: 71 million, 2012 estimated cat population: 74 million) and Europe (2012 dogs: 75 million, 2012 cats: 90 million) with 70 million households owning a pet. A similar trend is emerging in Asia in countries such as Japan, Taiwan and even China, as the Chinese population owning dogs and cats increased from 5% and 14%, respectively, in 1999, to an estimated 7% and 15% in 2004, respectively.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="d48e" style="text-align: right;">— Chomel (2014)</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="6690">In 1999 and 2000, three US state health departments reported four outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness due to <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Salmonella enterica</em> serotype <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Typhimurium</em> in employees, clients, and client animals from three companion animal veterinary clinics and one animal shelter. More than 45 persons and companion animals became ill. Two hundred animals were infected. Eighteen persons and 36 animals were culture-positive for a multidrug-resistant <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">S. typhimurium</em> variant.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="2639">Leptospirosis is caused by bacteria belonging to the genus <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Leptospira.</em> Dogs can be carriers and shed the bacteria in their urine. Humans can contract the disease through contact with contaminated water or soil.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ae38"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Cryptosporidium</em> is a protozoan parasite that can infect the gastrointestinal tract of various animals, including dogs. Humans can become infected through the ingestion of contaminated water, food, or contact with infected animals.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>The parvovirus, which was first recognized in 1978, can live for months outside the body, spreading not just from animal to animal but through feces, sneaking into the yards of dog owners via a bit of excrement stuck to the bottom of a person’s shoe.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="1eb9" style="text-align: right;">— Nyce (2024)</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="b969"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Toxocara canis</em> and <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Toxocara cati</em> are roundworms that infect dogs and cats, respectively. Humans can become infected by accidentally ingesting the eggs, or through contact with infected dog feces, soil, or contaminated surfaces.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0154"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Capnocytophaga canimorsus</em> is a bacterium commonly found in the mouths of dogs and cats. While infections in humans are rare, they can occur following bites, scratches, or close contact.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8f2e"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Staphylococcus intermedius</em> is a bacterium commonly found on the skin of dogs. While it typically doesn’t cause illness in dogs, there have been rare cases of transmission to humans, particularly in those with compromised immune systems.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="dd56">A wide number of vector-borne diseases, such as Lyme, ehrlichiosis, or tick-borne encephalitis, can infect pets. The infection of humans by the larval <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">E. multilocularis</em> is often the result of association with dogs that have eaten infected rodents. The risk to humans is not so much from direct transmission of these pathogens as from the shared environment. Two examples are plague caused by <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Yersinia pestis</em> after sleeping with flea-infested pets, and the presence of brown dog ticks <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">(Rhipicephalus sanguineus) </em>in playgrounds, leading to several cases of Rocky Mountain spotted fever cases in Arizona.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>Pet ownership brings major well-being support and the risk of zoonoses is limited when good animal care and appropriate preventive measures are applied in the human environment. However, the risks are not null and some behaviors (kissing, sleeping, being licked, or sharing food or kitchen utensils) or exposure of high-risk group persons may lead to disease carried by companion animals.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="d8ab" style="text-align: right;">— Chomel (2014)</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="bc87">Part 4: The Hawkeye Epidemic</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="7ace"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>U</b></span><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">nbeknownst to the Thompsons,</strong> the virus that claimed Max’s life had not been contained within the confines of Willow Creek. Harbored in the urine of infected dogs, it went undetected as it tainted the ground where dogs roamed. Max, unknowingly a carrier, had left traces of the virus in the Thompsons’ yard, home, and bedroom. Other dogs, drawn to the scent of his lingering presence, became unwitting victims as they investigated the contaminated territory. The new virus spread like wildfire through the local dog population, creating a silent epidemic that caught everyone off guard. Dogs in neighboring towns, counties, and eventually, the entire state, fell victim to the mysterious illness.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="27d0">Desperation and confusion gripped the region as veterinary clinics overflowed with sick animals and pet owners grappled with the sudden loss of their furry companions. Soon the epidemic spread beyond the borders of Iowa and cases were reported across the country.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7e04">Then veterinarians and their assistants began falling ill and dying. The once-thriving pet industry ground to a halt, as fear and uncertainty pervaded the lives of pet owners and care providers. The bond between humans and their canine companions was abruptly challenged, creating waves of shock and distress in the hearts of millions. Logic and emotion battled. Science and the urgent warnings of public health departments flew out the window. Denialism reigned.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="9a1b">Once in contact with humans, the virus unleashed a merciless onslaught. Pneumonia struck with ferocity, leaving victims gasping for breath within hours of exposure. Cardiac arrest followed, a merciless consequence that spared no one, regardless of age or gender. Families were torn apart, communities left in shock, and the medical community scrambled to comprehend the unprecedented speed at which this disease claimed its victims.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8153">The once-peaceful town of Willow Creek became a haunted landscape, its streets devoid of the laughter of children playing with their pets. The bond between humans and dogs, once a source of joy, had become a vector of tragedy.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>A new, deadly canine disease would almost certainly leave experts scrambling to respond, in some way. And in that scramble, pet owners could be left in a temporary information vacuum, worrying about the health of their little cold-nosed, four-legged creatures. The specifics of any pandemic story depend on the disease — how fast it moves, how it sickens and kills, and how quickly — but in almost any scenario it’s easy to imagine the moment when someone fears for their pet and doesn’t know what help will come, and how soon.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="d3f9" style="text-align: right;">— Nyce (2024)</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="67f4">As scientists scrambled to comprehend the nature of this cross-species transmission, the virus spread by geometric progression through the human population. Once a tranquil haven, Western Iowa became the epicenter of a global research effort. Who was patient zero? Where did the virus originate? In Iowa City, caravans of satellite trucks ringed the Roy J. and Lucille A. Carver College of Medicine at the University of Iowa, a Tier-1 research institution with over 31,000 students. Rumors had it that Carver Med was a leader in the field of Gain of Function gene manipulation.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ea5f">Meanwhile the E.R. at Carver hospital overflowed with patients exhibiting severe respiratory distress and other mysterious symptoms. Even as they tossed treats to passing dogs, news crews outside watched their satellite live feeds in horror as the virus, now known as Canine Influenza Z (CIZ) to scientists and the Iowa Flu to most people, decimated human and animal populations with a speed and ferocity never seen before.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ee51">Governments worldwide implemented strict quarantine measures, but the dog urine virus eluded containment. Owners resisted all attempts to round up and destroy their beloved pets. The streets were eerily silent as cities and towns became ghostly landscapes, ruled by abandoned and feral dogs, the virus from their urine claiming lives faster than scientists could develop a vaccine.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7054">The once-thriving global population now faced an uncertain future, forever scarred by the rapid and lethal consequences of a virus that had originated in the most unexpected of places — prairie dog holes in Western Iowa.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="b650">Part 5: The Race for a Cure</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="a047"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>In</b></span><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> laboratories across the globe,</strong> researchers worked tirelessly to unravel the mysteries of CIZ. The urgency of the situation led to unprecedented collaboration as scientists and experts pooled their resources in a desperate bid.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="d54a">Months progressed as if time had slowed to a crawl. The passing of time was marked by heartache, fear, and an ever-increasing death toll. Families were torn apart, economies crumbled, and the world grappled with the catastrophic consequences of a virus that had originated from a chance encounter in a back yard in Iowa.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>A scenario in which pet owners stand by while their dogs are killed en masse is hard to imagine. People love their pets fiercely, and consider them family; many would push to save their dogs. But even in a scenario where humans were safe, the systems we’ve set up might not be able to keep pets from dying on a disturbing scale.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="1cc8" style="text-align: right;">— Nyce (2024)</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="c483">Hope emerged when a team of virologists and geneticists finally developed a potential vaccine. The world held its breath as clinical trials began, and governments mobilized to distribute the vaccine at scale. The fate of humanity hung in the balance as the Iowa Flu pandemic reached its greatest global expanse, still accelerating.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="398c">Part 6: A Fragile New Beginning</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="c6b4"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>T</b></span><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">he vaccine proved effective,</strong> but the toll was irreversible. A once-thriving global population had been decimated, leaving behind empty cities and mere echoes of former populations. The bond between humans and dogs, once a source of joy and companionship, was sundered. Dogs were now only a painful reminder of devastation and grief. They did not approach humans and humans gave them a wide berth.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e55b">In Willow Creek, survivors — those who had had no contact with dogs — grieved the loss of their quaint town. The world emerged from the shadows of the pandemic forever changed and scarred by the memories of a virus that would write Willow Creek into history.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="eaab">As life tentatively resumed, a new normal unfolded. The legacy of Canine Influenza Z, the Iowa Flu, lingered, a haunting reminder of the unforeseen consequences of animal companionship.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="1784">Postscript</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="f637"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>T</b></span><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">his short story is entirely fictional</strong> and speculative. It was assisted in its creation by Chat GPT and Google Scholar. No scientific evidence or published research suggests a zoonotic pandemic originating from Cocker Spaniels or prairie dogs. There is no Willow Creek, Iowa, although there is a creek of that name near Mason City.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="4c27">While zoonotic diseases do exist, and some can be transmitted between animals and humans, the specific events portrayed in the story are not real. What is real is that:</p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="b5f2">Many zoonotic viruses originate in wildlife. Bats, in particular, are known reservoirs for several viruses. The 1918 influenza pandemic, often referred to as the Spanish flu, is one of the deadliest pandemics in history and likely originated in birds. The H1N1 influenza pandemic of 2009 had a swine origin.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="7985">The intensification of agriculture and close proximity between humans, pets and livestock combine to increase the risk of zoonotic mutation.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="1ae4">Many infectious diseases affecting humans have originated in animals. Examples include SARS-CoV-2 (from bats), HIV/AIDS (primates), Ebola (bats), SARS (civet cats), and MERS (camels).</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="6fbb">Increased travel and trade facilitate the rapid spread of infectious agents across borders.</li></ul><p class="graf graf--p" name="c76b">Early detection and surveillance are critical for preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases. Monitoring wildlife populations, domestic animals, and humans for signs of novel pathogens is essential. Researchers use tools such as genomic sequencing to understand the genetic makeup of viruses, track their evolution, and identify potential reservoirs. This was the sort of work done with bat populations at the Wuhan Lab prior to Covid, but it has been discontinued.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="92e4">The destruction of natural habitats, climate change, and increased human-wildlife interactions will heighten the risk of zoonotic spillover events. So will antimicrobial resistance to infectious diseases, including those with zoonotic origins. So will the exponential growth of pet domesticity globally.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="3ad4">The larger question is whether Western societies will be able to muster the will to act in a coordinated way or will instead disintegrate from an inability to understand or appreciate the value of timely concerted action. Recent tests have not been reassuring.</p><h4 class="graf graf--h4" name="c50b">References</h4><p class="graf graf--p" name="a2f4">Chomel, B. B. (2014). Emerging and re-emerging zoonoses of dogs and cats. Animals, 4(3), 434–445.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="922c">Nyce, C.M., We got lucky with the mystery dog illness, The Atlantic (Jan 7 2024)</p><p> <span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p><span></span></p><p class="graf graf--p"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> </strong></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC79XCA1Mj9odk32b6plRbMoSU4_T0WnY2apANGyDpu-e6y8-87M8N2-e9cYCsovVnTTloSa5Y1yx412MTEwcVxsBeXSXsJl54q_hi0PTMBbOXOAQlPxEtF4oEKTdCy0W1m2OD9G96GKgR_ePYcIn5yXbPOjyG21SyYoZk6deaGDI_VH7p3bl8YH_91ID0/s2304/Gaza_Citybeforeafter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="925" data-original-width="2304" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC79XCA1Mj9odk32b6plRbMoSU4_T0WnY2apANGyDpu-e6y8-87M8N2-e9cYCsovVnTTloSa5Y1yx412MTEwcVxsBeXSXsJl54q_hi0PTMBbOXOAQlPxEtF4oEKTdCy0W1m2OD9G96GKgR_ePYcIn5yXbPOjyG21SyYoZk6deaGDI_VH7p3bl8YH_91ID0/w640-h256/Gaza_Citybeforeafter.jpg" width="640" /></a></strong></div><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><br /></strong><p></p><p class="graf graf--p"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</strong> We support peace in the West Bank and Gaza and the efforts by the Center for Constitutional Rights, National Lawyers Guild, Government of South Africa and others to bring an immediate cessation to the war. Global Village Institute has sponsored the Green Kibbutz network and the Marda Permaculture Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years and will continue to do so. We also aid Ukrainian children seeking refuge in ecovillages and permaculture farms along the Green Road. You can donate by going to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="noopener" target="_blank">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a> or by sending donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more information on the Global Village Institute website (<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="http://GVIx.org" href="http://GVIx.org" rel="noopener" target="_blank">GVIx.org</a>). Thank you for your help.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="339b"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"></em></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1As44k1Ucr4_3LIfFmUgUIpVyUkQBe5T4aRPxpyhmR6uicenFHSdiJDYZZwcajwXCxVJoFE9hSuuuMs7RTfJTbklCy34xp0boP3YwzitZ-SSZMcXXyc5bzwZBCG6_qkKK6id6FKQx4mmYyP1hsDFlsCUzrNx8H3irVUVpNaxwUeziAngjZ-FDKVtyvrY8/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1As44k1Ucr4_3LIfFmUgUIpVyUkQBe5T4aRPxpyhmR6uicenFHSdiJDYZZwcajwXCxVJoFE9hSuuuMs7RTfJTbklCy34xp0boP3YwzitZ-SSZMcXXyc5bzwZBCG6_qkKK6id6FKQx4mmYyP1hsDFlsCUzrNx8H3irVUVpNaxwUeziAngjZ-FDKVtyvrY8/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></em></div><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">All Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity.</em><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="b0c1">My latest book, <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Retropopulationism: Clawing Back a Stable Planet from Eight Billion and Change,</em></strong> is now available. Complimentary copies should reach Power Up! Patreon donors soon.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="66ec"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">If you are interested in climate solutions</strong>, one of the world’s most effective conferences will be in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.biocharconference.com/" href="https://www.biocharconference.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Sacramento February 12–15</a>. Contact me directly for a $200 discount on registration. Some of the latest inventions will be in the exhibit hall.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f797">Following that, I will be in Santa Barbara for the <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.lobero.org/events/eco-hero-award-2024-2/" href="https://www.lobero.org/events/eco-hero-award-2024-2/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">2024 Eco Hero Award</a>. Y’all are invited!</p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="ccec">Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share.</blockquote><p><span></span></p><!--more-->
<p></p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-75873559044844146152024-01-21T06:00:00.008-06:002024-01-21T06:00:00.243-06:00A Woof of Debt<p><a href="">"</a><i>Our dogs have a powerful financial bite</i><a href="">"</a></p><p><strong></strong></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgG8VZZPpbZXTHlvXJnZad36mj4ZcErM559ZndeRTvo-gwcmI6SHZOjcQKpUcU_yxYqMbJISvyY8Gf1_raY4yGLh6UanHRb5qXyj0h1zmVd0G7QaEHoi-IlT0-kJL7QFk4iJHAIft0WxrHjzmTJpjwdX-Lz2jmQv4flP2C1nktWf3a-vyUJuq8WDNSuzlt/s1853/2oilmoneydog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1013" data-original-width="1853" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgG8VZZPpbZXTHlvXJnZad36mj4ZcErM559ZndeRTvo-gwcmI6SHZOjcQKpUcU_yxYqMbJISvyY8Gf1_raY4yGLh6UanHRb5qXyj0h1zmVd0G7QaEHoi-IlT0-kJL7QFk4iJHAIft0WxrHjzmTJpjwdX-Lz2jmQv4flP2C1nktWf3a-vyUJuq8WDNSuzlt/w640-h350/2oilmoneydog.jpg" width="640" /></a></strong></div><strong><br />Dogs and money share a common Latin etymology. </strong><span>The word “pecuniary,” which means an economic interest, from the Latin </span><em>pecus</em><span> (trade), comes from the proto-IndoEuropean </span><em>péḱu</em><span>
(livestock). It makes sense because animals were commonly exchanged in
the barter world that pre-existed coins. As proto-IndoEuropean evolved
into proto-Italic, </span><em>péḱu</em><span> spun off </span><em>ḱwṓ</em><span> and then </span><em>kō</em><span> (dog). When the Romans arrived, dogs became </span><em>canes</em><span> and then </span><em>canis</em><span>. The word was also used to connote someone of low birth or foul smell. Roman coins became the standard of </span><em>pecunia</em><span> (trade). The Latin name for dogs today, </span><em>Canis lupus familiaris,</em><span> recalls the descent from wolves (</span><em>lupus</em><span>) into domestication (</span><em>familiaris</em><span>).</span><p></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM9bO9odm-sNcO5paTYI3GYLai13vsH_ju4bX2UpuvaINaahGdaz_O-Y6qrZYsepMM3uRdvjru2ZuBYxiJS_-THgz_-erlLecoiF3Y1yeXsf9jR1UrZ8hf9MlWmhGwK9BK9P2k6pXW104qNOwxwvyZ6B-migwfYOffJBVMycvSsL4rcGlrbFWGBJmsg4AX/s800/mexdogfoodimports.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="800" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM9bO9odm-sNcO5paTYI3GYLai13vsH_ju4bX2UpuvaINaahGdaz_O-Y6qrZYsepMM3uRdvjru2ZuBYxiJS_-THgz_-erlLecoiF3Y1yeXsf9jR1UrZ8hf9MlWmhGwK9BK9P2k6pXW104qNOwxwvyZ6B-migwfYOffJBVMycvSsL4rcGlrbFWGBJmsg4AX/s320/mexdogfoodimports.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>At least in the Western world, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/doggie-amenities-vanderpump-mansions-pets-4bbcf685" rel="">dogs and money</a><span>
have never been far apart. Rather than considering pet ownership in
relatively wealthy nations like the US, UK, Japan, or parts of the EU,
let’s look at the example of a less wealthy nation like México.
According to the Mexican Association for Food Production, about a
million tons of food are produced in México for dogs every year, but
even that is insufficient to meet demand, and the remainder is imported.
Dogfood is a $40 billion peso ($2 to 3 billion dollar) industry but
only about 30% of Mexican dogs have homes. Anything eaten by the other
70% is off the books.</span> <br /><p></p><p><span>México has no census of pets, but the </span><em>Enbiare</em><span>,
which measures a person’s view of well-being in different dimensions of
their social life, says that around 25 million Mexican households are
home to an estimated 43.8 million dogs. Assuming feral dogs represent
70% of the total dog population, the entire number, from Chihuahuas to
St. Bernards, would be 146 million. </span></p><p>In México it is estimated that each dog’s environmental pawprint is
0.85 ha./y just for their food (Ravilious, 2009). Multiply that number
by 146 million dogs, and the country needs to devote 563,709 square
miles (124 million ha.) to providing for its dogs. México’s total land
area is 758,449 square miles. </p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The ecological footprint is a popular natural resource accounting tool that is used to measure environmental sustainability. Specifically, it is the total area of productive land and water required to continuously produce all resources consumed and to assimilate all waste produced by a defined population wherever on Earth that land is located (Wackernagel and Rees 1998, Csutora et al. 2009). </i></div><p style="text-align: right;">—Martens, Su and Deblomme (2019)</p><p>Mexico’s
dogs have a larger ecological pawprint than the territorial area of 183
different countries. It’s larger than France, Spain, Iraq, Congo,
Sweden, Finland and Norway. Cortes, who introduced the Spanish breeds to
México, should be spinning in his grave.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLKR_t6eFnPAtGwc6pnlSaBXSEqxdVaQ1PQJrDQAIm-rXKQ7_IYMVu3I_5x9y4iuG1pAfhfxK72e95Ja21LSUDNisfEsL0DvZKI5nUU3fqUXErl6M7VLxbUOqpH2Sl0I3veRrjg4KIqpMs3IfTfMSSwWzufkefOV-LtlnZXyvFiM8ZErlTjrIn9qcT9oDh/s1367/MexDogFootprint.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="655" data-original-width="1367" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLKR_t6eFnPAtGwc6pnlSaBXSEqxdVaQ1PQJrDQAIm-rXKQ7_IYMVu3I_5x9y4iuG1pAfhfxK72e95Ja21LSUDNisfEsL0DvZKI5nUU3fqUXErl6M7VLxbUOqpH2Sl0I3veRrjg4KIqpMs3IfTfMSSwWzufkefOV-LtlnZXyvFiM8ZErlTjrIn9qcT9oDh/w400-h191/MexDogFootprint.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">La Cuenta, por Favor<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§la-cuenta-por-favor"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/140778772/la-cuenta-por-favor"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"></svg></div></div></div></h3><p><strong>Of course, México does not pay</strong><span>
for that footprint or land use. Like everyone else, it puts it on a
credit card and charges it to future generations. This means that future
generations, should there be many, will have diminished biodiversity,
farmland, forest, water, and habitable climate as the bill comes due.
And the authors of the ecological footprint report warn that their study
may understate the full impact. </span></p><blockquote><p><i>… the
ecological footprint of pet animals is only part of the problem, and the environmental impacts of abandoned animals on the streets could be
bigger than those who have an owner. </i></p></blockquote><p><span>You are far more likely to be attacked by a dog than by any other large animal (</span><a href="https://petkeen.com/dog-bite-statistics/" rel="">4 to 10 million per year</a><span> just in the US). Dog bites are responsible for around 30,000 human deaths per year, </span><a href="https://www.discoverwildlife.com/animal-facts/deadliest-animals-to-humans" rel="">compared worldwide</a><span> to 6 for sharks and 22 for lions. </span></p><p>The
survey, “Mexico, a pet-friendly country,” was carried out by Mitofsky, a
Mexican research group, in 2019. Asked if they buy special food for
their pets, 57.7% of pet owners answered yes; 8.9% said the dog eats the
same food as the family, and 32.4% said it was some combination of the
two. </p><p>Food is not the only financial bite for dog owners. Asked
how often they take their pet to the veterinarian, 21.2% said once a
year; 28.2% said twice a year; 16.3% said three times; 7.6% said four
times; 7.1% said five times; 2.5% said six times; 5.5% said seven times
and 11.6% said never.</p><p>México is not a wealthy country but it has a
wealthy class of citizens. Class differences cannot explain 146 million
dogs in a nation of 127 million people. It's just that México is, as
the pollster said, “a pet-friendly country.”</p><p>But who is
“pet-friendly” really friendly to? Certainly not the Earth or future
generations. Likely not to the poorer classes struggling to make minimum
wage. Minimum wages in México averaged 29.42 MXN/Day ($1.73) from 1960
until 2024. In January 2024 the federal standard was raised to
$14.65/day (249 MXN), but dog food costs the same in México as it does
north of the border.</p><p>Owning a dog is a modern form of indentured
servitude, costing many Mexicans more than they would spend for a car,
apartment, or college tuition. For most, the costs go unnoticed because
dogs are part of the culture—you grew up with them and there is normalcy
bias.</p><p><span>For at least the last 200 years, dogs and money, </span><a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/cooldesign/p/the-titanic-challenge-what-can-we?r=eh7d4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcome=true" rel="">like dogs and fossil fuels</a><span>
have never been far apart. Nearly 100 million dog bites will be
reported this year around the world. That number doesn’t include the
bite to their owners’ or victims’ pecuniary security.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://cooldesign.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share The Great Change","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" style="text-align: center;"><a class="button primary" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share" rel=""><span>Share The Great Change</span></a></p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">References<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§references"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/140778772/references"> </div><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/140778772/references"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;">Herrera-Camacho,
J., Baltierra-Trejo, E., Taboada-González, P. A., Gonzalez, L. F.,
& Márquez-Benavides, L. (2017). Environmental Footprint of Domestic
Dogs and Cats.</span></span></div></div></div></h3><p>Martens, Pim, Bingtao Su, and Samantha Deblomme.
"The ecological paw print of companion dogs and cats." BioScience 69.6
(2019): 467-474.</p><p>Navarro, S. Pets in Mexico, a sector invisible to statistics, Yucatan Times, March 7, 2023</p><p><span>Pet-Food-Industry, 2016. Changing lifestyles are expected to aid pet food market growth, in: Secondary Pet-Food-Industry (Ed.), </span><a href="http://www.petfoodindustry.com/articles/6224-us-pet-food-market-forecast-at-us30- billion-by-2022" rel="">Secondary Changing lifestyles are expected to aid pet food market growth</a><span>. Pet Food Industry, U.S.A.</span></p><p>Ravilious, K., 2009. How green is your pet? New Sci. 204, 46-47. doi:10.1016/S0262-4079(09)62827-X. </p><p>Salemdeeb,
R., zu Ermgassen, E. K. H. J., Kim, M. H., Balmford, A., Al-Tabbaa, A.,
2017. Environmental and health impacts of using food waste as animal
feed: a comparative analysis of food waste management options. J. Clean.
Prod. 140, Part 2, 871-880. doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.05.049. </p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a> <p></p><p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDl336IBy4FVvaryS-G9O81QOz_kxfVqxFnZc68u0d2k2qM3oNKskiBUEuG5GwHjdslq-JNcXeiceesc7HCbXsW0Mk3ZraLwGRJSrIHRPdsejA7yCWjsQ8UvkzBu4IBDYxpYQrA2c2JwPnLIDVpsyyKW5NsSsWH_nlwgAU8rT8qUbFMQP2eadB5ucApONe/s902/AFPomariGaza.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="902" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDl336IBy4FVvaryS-G9O81QOz_kxfVqxFnZc68u0d2k2qM3oNKskiBUEuG5GwHjdslq-JNcXeiceesc7HCbXsW0Mk3ZraLwGRJSrIHRPdsejA7yCWjsQ8UvkzBu4IBDYxpYQrA2c2JwPnLIDVpsyyKW5NsSsWH_nlwgAU8rT8qUbFMQP2eadB5ucApONe/w640-h428/AFPomariGaza.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">The Omari Mosque was originally a 5th-century Byzantine church that was
built over a more ancient temple. It was converted into a mosque in the
7th century, then a Crusader church in the 11th century, and back to a
mosque in the 13th century.</span></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p><strong>Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</strong><span> We support
peace in the West Bank and Gaza and the efforts by the Center for
Constitutional Rights, National Lawyers Guild, Government of South
Africa and others to bring an immediate cessation to the war. Global
Village Institute has sponsored the Green Kibbutz network and the Marda
Permaculture Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years and will continue
to do so. We also aid Ukrainian children seeking refuge in ecovillages
and permaculture farms along the Green Road. You can donate by going to </span><a href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a><span> or by sending donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more information on the Global Village Institute website (</span><a href="http://GVIx.org" rel="">GVIx.org</a><span>). Thank you for your help.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy-l_wMK-R1XYAHLdzu-QBEJtVPgXKWIM6JIeRtJoUe4zJHa591EjUr_q279NFQItTvvqPwN2jnWS0Muw3GVHpdqJY0NKoOn8VrOgeBtDBrQSDDvNfT4FAm4zZsaMUUKEI17LLThk42pwEu9nj1ZdgcZCWHpmx1kwHRjgiFDDDuWHl3FBD0ngwGsuM0EYW/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy-l_wMK-R1XYAHLdzu-QBEJtVPgXKWIM6JIeRtJoUe4zJHa591EjUr_q279NFQItTvvqPwN2jnWS0Muw3GVHpdqJY0NKoOn8VrOgeBtDBrQSDDvNfT4FAm4zZsaMUUKEI17LLThk42pwEu9nj1ZdgcZCWHpmx1kwHRjgiFDDDuWHl3FBD0ngwGsuM0EYW/s16000/SmallcolorQR.jpg" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p><em>All
Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are
needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions
are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3)
charity.</em></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJPns73xbuf3Bulujr6Z7Bg7Oonxgyd84jZnzG_wzAonR28l1tTLyMO4KSCoLc-eBbSUS2NeXXSmi1WTPB7K9Jh4I-4Eqjg9tfeg-aCEOSnBRuHBPnwXD5T6f6mt8Oh6MXGqwgJBhThA_6kOW9EeDtZS9VRZvZ9cZabpzlNbuqi-O_DAsFeNyc-dEb9x7L/s1960/retropopadvertsm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1285" data-original-width="1960" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJPns73xbuf3Bulujr6Z7Bg7Oonxgyd84jZnzG_wzAonR28l1tTLyMO4KSCoLc-eBbSUS2NeXXSmi1WTPB7K9Jh4I-4Eqjg9tfeg-aCEOSnBRuHBPnwXD5T6f6mt8Oh6MXGqwgJBhThA_6kOW9EeDtZS9VRZvZ9cZabpzlNbuqi-O_DAsFeNyc-dEb9x7L/s320/retropopadvertsm.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>My latest book, <em><strong>Retropopulationism: Clawing Back a Stable Planet from Eight Billion and Change,</strong></em><span> is now available. Complimentary copies should reach Power Up! Patreon donors soon.</span><p></p><p><strong>If you are interested in climate solutions</strong><span>, one of the world’s most effective conferences will be in </span><a href="https://www.biocharconference.com/" rel="">Sacramento February 12–15</a><span>. Contact me directly for a $200 discount on registration. Some of the latest inventions will be in the exhibit hall.</span></p><p><span>Following that, I will be in Santa Barbara for the </span><a href="https://www.lobero.org/events/eco-hero-award-2024-2/" rel="">2024 Eco Hero Award</a><span>. Y’all are invited!</span></p><div class="pullquote"><p></p><blockquote>Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share.</blockquote><p><span> <br /></span></p></div><p>
</p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-27760759513464377322024-01-14T06:00:00.004-06:002024-01-14T06:58:54.456-06:00The Titanic Challenge: What Can We Do About Dogs?<p><a href="">"</a><i>You can take my dog when you pry him from my frozen dead body in the icy North Atlantic.</i><a href="">"</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b class="tk jt"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9coERFHQoXTUzsFnSlpMUPt9bEdVzMnzO4mWBgGpsPalhjtuzJS5fdi-VhqnX_kTUUWQgiKOr66KUWYJK8Ep8ySQZW8kf8tFaYCkmHq0-ugzbwFQ9qL_GrElpjOuxwPLtZ4YbogCHvIRRDfzHB_67v2X2gQIWN5DSkO7gbEokr92YrlyxbOWtrfhxqZGF/s3074/oilgreatdaneswim2.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1482" data-original-width="3074" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9coERFHQoXTUzsFnSlpMUPt9bEdVzMnzO4mWBgGpsPalhjtuzJS5fdi-VhqnX_kTUUWQgiKOr66KUWYJK8Ep8ySQZW8kf8tFaYCkmHq0-ugzbwFQ9qL_GrElpjOuxwPLtZ4YbogCHvIRRDfzHB_67v2X2gQIWN5DSkO7gbEokr92YrlyxbOWtrfhxqZGF/w400-h193/oilgreatdaneswim2.jpg" width="400" /></a></b></div><b class="tk jt"><span style="font-size: medium;">There were 12 dogs aboard the Titanic.</span> </b>Three
of them, two Pomeranians and a Pekingese, survived. Fifty-year-old Ann
Isham refused to get into a lifeboat without her large dog (possibly a
Great Dane). Passengers on the German liner Bremen later saw a woman in a
lifejacket with her frozen arms wrapped around a large dog bobbing in
the waves but neither were recovered. Elizabeth Barrett Rothschild was
able to save her Pomeranian but lost her husband, a <a class="af un" href="https://schuylerhistory.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/elizabeth-barrett-rothschild.pdf" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Rothschild heir and garment industry founder</a> in New York City. <a class="af un" href="https://www.liverpoolmuseums.org.uk/stories/titanic-dogs" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">It is said</a>
that the Pomeranian jumped from Elizabeth’s arms after disembarking
Carpathia in New York and was run over by a carriage, which conjures
images of <i class="uo">A Fish Called Wanda.</i><p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8d0b">Our relationship with our pets, and particularly dogs, is a difficult one to unwind.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6dc0">I’d call it a form of the <i class="uo">solastalgia</i> described in my 1990 book, <i class="uo">Climate in Crisis. </i>Solastalgia is a neologism, formed by the combination of the Latin words <i class="uo">sōlācium</i> (comfort) and the Greek root -<i class="uo">algia</i>
(pain, suffering, grief), that describes a form of emotional or
existential distress caused by rapid and uncontrollable environmental
change. We quietly grieve for the loss of the natural world. We’ve feel a
connection deep in our genetic makeup — a broken strand of an inner
web. Restoring a connection to animals — a different kind of
intelligence than our own — mends our link to the wild.</p><blockquote class="up"><p class="uq ur oq be us ut uu uv uw ux uy ud fz" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5518"></p><blockquote>The
Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts
and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</blockquote><p></p></blockquote><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz uz tm tn pc va tp tq tr vb tt tu tv vc tx ty tz vd ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="44ae">Many
of us are in a love-hate relationship with nature. Those who enjoy
hiking, camping, and wilderness outings relate to the natural world in
one way or perhaps along a spectrum of emotions, from deep respect and
reverence to challenging adrenalin-pumping risk-taking. Others regard
the wild world as antiquated at best, or a nostalgic fiction at worst.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="018a">Nature
may inspire in some of us a measure of fear. In others, a healthy
respect for the dangers of the unknown, and perhaps unknowable.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="702b">When
we take an animal into our family, we tame a little portion of that
inchoate fear. We recover a bit of the lost reverence we once took for
granted. We may not cognize these emotions, but we sense that it feels
good. It feels right.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e56c">So
it is that when an annoying someone like me comes along to point out
that there are 900 million dogs in the world, 740 million of them feral,
where not long ago there may have been fewer than a million, we are the
bearer of bad news. Even worse, the full message is that fossil fuels
fueled the rise of dog. We need to get rid of both the fuel and the dog,
and even that won’t be enough.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2200">But it is a start.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The ecological crisis is a human crisis. Happily spending over 100 billion dollars for their pets … Americans, some rich, some dirt poor, expose more than their soft spot for animals. Here, and on other continents (at a different scale), the cost of this expression of love exceeds donations to charities and even the financial assistance provided by the US government. Products and services ranging from the best (read: most expensive) to the outrageous (yes, it starts with caviar) present an image of a human condition so much in love with itself and so little concern about those in need. Contact lenses (“I want my Persian to have blue eyes” or “I want my Rex to see better”), knee and hip replacements, chiropractic therapy, and even psychiatric sessions are on record. Online dating is no longer only for people, but also for dogs and even cats.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="0d2b" style="text-align: right;">— Mihai Naden, <i class="uo">O’dogs an’ Climate Change </i>(2019)</p><h3 class="vh vi oq be vj vk vl pb vm vn vo pe vp vq vr vs vt vu vv vw vx vy vz wa wb wc bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="0b79" style="text-align: left;">The AI Opinion</h3><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz wd tm tn pc we tp tq tr wf tt tu tv wg tx ty tz wh ub uc ud jr bj ue" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ca20"><b><span class="l uf ug uh bn ui uj uk ul um fl"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZnwXDW0x45m1zVvZqksTRCXTIPgSO1K1FSTWaaZNfdA8zYWdIGDfxwxTTHPhCd47shVHmMw6u00g-bNZBUDXBiwohyBMcjV-enHvwloAIeRaEP0NVWxSSr4hAm836xCAdtREVWxWaFvZd3MwEgeo8bdGSxGC5U1WcCY7qeuMVWwwtNVrPHUtw-aa3NvRM/s474/Gretadogdecisioncomix.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="314" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZnwXDW0x45m1zVvZqksTRCXTIPgSO1K1FSTWaaZNfdA8zYWdIGDfxwxTTHPhCd47shVHmMw6u00g-bNZBUDXBiwohyBMcjV-enHvwloAIeRaEP0NVWxSSr4hAm836xCAdtREVWxWaFvZd3MwEgeo8bdGSxGC5U1WcCY7qeuMVWwwtNVrPHUtw-aa3NvRM/s320/Gretadogdecisioncomix.jpg" width="212" /></a></b></div><b>I
asked the various chatbots t</b>o give me a children’s story about Greta
Thunberg discovering that the climate impact of owning her two large
dogs was more than taking several transoceanic flights to climate
conferences. I prompted the bots to have her give up her dogs. Bing and
Chat-GPT repeatedly declined, instead offering lame alternatives like
having the dogs go vegan, or Greta campaigning on behalf of adopting
shelter dogs rather than breeding more. It seems even bots have a
trained soft-spot for man’s best friend. Only DALL-E had the courage to
follow my instructions. Knowing that she is in Sweden, it apparently had
her throw her dogs into the Gullmarn fjord.<p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj ue" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f007"><span class="l uf ug uh bn ui uj uk ul um fl">P</span><span class="tk jt">rior to the Industrial Revolution, </span>dogs
were a luxury of royalty and aristocracy. They were for hunting on
private game preserves, or they were bred as weapons of war. 150 years
ago, there were 27 types of dogs in England. By 1900, there were 80.
Today, there are more than 400 registered breeds.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="003f">It was fossil fuels that fueled the rise of dog</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="dd20">In
the 19th century, breeding became all the rage. Wealthy families wanted
(and could support) large dogs, while commoners preferred terriers,
dachshunds and bulldogs. Scottish and Russian deerhounds were crossed
with a Great Dane, a Tibetan mastiff, and a boxer to create the Irish
wolfhound proudly engraved on stone cornices in Dublin today as the
native Irish dog. The golden retriever was produced by mixing a
yellow-colored retriever with a tweed water spaniel and inbreeding their
litter. The so-called “top dogs” became commodities, bought, sold and
hired out for stud duties, often for very high prices. What the Dutch
did for tulips, the English did for sheepdogs.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="acbf">“At the end of the century there was a fashion for Russian dogs bought solely to sit on the lap of a lady called lap dogs,” <a class="af un" href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-18/history-of-modern-dog-breeds-invented-in-victorian-era/11019320" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">says Professor Michael Worboys</a> of the University of Manchester and author of <i class="uo">The Invention of the Modern Dog.</i></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The main thing they wanted was a loving dog that would put up with being carried around in a handbag and eating funny foods and all the rest of it. The last dog you want, as an aristocrat, is the same dog as everyone else.</i></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i> </i></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKWe3sktLZrYmMc9SXi5e1F0tR6wXgtVq6EbClgQv5ZTSRJ-zPbcVRONgvs47trQFtY7iEnfx7cMbc9rF5kBiIvgXlmH5PwPjskPXyp92naMKvGSO95YyAlhfxlKWVEBqfBckkz4Wy2wg35lgLCd0aTvsqi5yXq05nmn2wRY_y78snrTOYEaAdw7UZwaIL/s515/Worboys%20English%20Breeding.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="232" data-original-width="515" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKWe3sktLZrYmMc9SXi5e1F0tR6wXgtVq6EbClgQv5ZTSRJ-zPbcVRONgvs47trQFtY7iEnfx7cMbc9rF5kBiIvgXlmH5PwPjskPXyp92naMKvGSO95YyAlhfxlKWVEBqfBckkz4Wy2wg35lgLCd0aTvsqi5yXq05nmn2wRY_y78snrTOYEaAdw7UZwaIL/w400-h180/Worboys%20English%20Breeding.jpg" width="400" /></a></div></i></div><h3 class="vh vi oq be vj vk vl pb vm vn vo pe vp vq vr vs vt vu vv vw vx vy vz wa wb wc bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1cca" style="text-align: left;">Chinese Dogs</h3><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz wd tm tn pc we tp tq tr wf tt tu tv wg tx ty tz wh ub uc ud jr bj ue" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5cbc"><span class="l uf ug uh bn ui uj uk ul um fl"><b>T</b></span><b class="tk jt">he present growth rate of dogs</b>
in the world is still closely correlated to fossil fuel wealth, which
is why the US leads in dog ownership and breeding. The dog population of
the US is growing 1.4% per year, three times the rate of human
population growth, including immigration. (Fossil fuel consumption in
the United States grew 2.5% in 2022). According to a recent market
report, a similar phenomenon is underway in China where total pet dog
and cat numbers exceeded 100 million in 2020, increasing 1.7% year on
year. The poodle has been knocked out of the first place as the
preferred breed. The Chinese rural dog, a mixed-breed local, <a class="af un" href="https://www.rvo.nl/files/file/2022-05/Pet%20Food%20rapport.pdf" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">is now top dog</a>.</p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv_Hj3kErmFED_mDR0F-4wy5bPbynpBMqpobUSSKnuqVozvYxpwutN1aqvrYLJbPY9kWHEI1V3_6MZWlmnOYmV4CYSKXkuEG1iaczPEv7LUcStKHDJmGMVkdMJ19izImkrTGuSz5wkuPM5nvwfT2o5ryZ4R54OTNe4Ur6EuNHzrZoHvkUEkiceGz2dvjnD/s821/chineseincome.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="821" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv_Hj3kErmFED_mDR0F-4wy5bPbynpBMqpobUSSKnuqVozvYxpwutN1aqvrYLJbPY9kWHEI1V3_6MZWlmnOYmV4CYSKXkuEG1iaczPEv7LUcStKHDJmGMVkdMJ19izImkrTGuSz5wkuPM5nvwfT2o5ryZ4R54OTNe4Ur6EuNHzrZoHvkUEkiceGz2dvjnD/w400-h191/chineseincome.jpg" width="400" /></a><br /></div><div><br /><br /><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>China’s pet economy began to develop in the 90s. In line with the booming economy and its ever-growing GDP, the pet industry developed rapidly after 2010. In 2020, 52 million dogs and 49 million cats were kept by 63 million pet owners in China’s urban areas.</i><br /><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: center;"><i>***</i><br /></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><br /><i>Several online news reports referring to the market research firm Frost & Sullivan indicate that the younger generations, i.e., those younger than 30 years or the so-called post-90s generation, are the driving force behind the Chinese pet industry. They are mostly single and female, looking for a pet partner to fulfill their emotional needs and feel less alone in big cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen (Tier 1 cities). It is expected that pet ownership in the coming decennium will especially grow in the only slightly smaller provincial capital cities (Tier 2 cities).</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3fa6" style="text-align: right;">— Enting, I., <a class="af un" href="https://www.rvo.nl/files/file/2022-05/Pet%20Food%20rapport.pdf" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank"><i class="uo">Business propositions in the unique Chinese pet industry</i></a> (2022).</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3fa6"> </p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcpBBzKDDfkcSVVmP1obQP_auFLXfItmq6AdkhnDyI4yrFQqRIAFY8in9160K1enSvoTCgVliY95GirBFbxrDhpdet4pS6G6DT4IRw3Bj2HBVptu6rdNA0jmxzJlvTmn2OgwwRHZMTW23N4bllzsYUqUYPqtBaAPC4PSd4wmgYRJUsnaTXJphgaxxfJkHb/s279/ChinaPetsByGeneration.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="185" data-original-width="279" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcpBBzKDDfkcSVVmP1obQP_auFLXfItmq6AdkhnDyI4yrFQqRIAFY8in9160K1enSvoTCgVliY95GirBFbxrDhpdet4pS6G6DT4IRw3Bj2HBVptu6rdNA0jmxzJlvTmn2OgwwRHZMTW23N4bllzsYUqUYPqtBaAPC4PSd4wmgYRJUsnaTXJphgaxxfJkHb/s1600/ChinaPetsByGeneration.jpg" width="279" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><figure class="wl wm wn wo wp oe wi wj paragraph-image"><figcaption class="wx ey wy wi wj wz xa be b bf z fz" data-selectable-paragraph=""><span style="font-size: x-small;">China dog ownership by birth decade</span></figcaption></figure></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3fa6" style="text-align: left;">In China, the ratio of dogs and cats to people is about one to ten. In
the US, it is one to two. In both cases, the gap is rapidly closing.
Moreover, the Chinese data show that generationally, pet ownership is
trending more favorably with those born post-’90s than those from
earlier generations. Partly, that is a reflection of the disposable
income of better-educated youth. As income increases, so does pet
ownership. Singles are more likely to be pet owners than married with
children. One-third of all pets are urban. The market report says, “The
future stereotype pet owner holds a cat instead of a dog. She is female,
less than 30 years old, single, with middle income (RMB 4,000–9,999)
living in the new Tier 1 cities.”</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3fa6"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEighP3bhl_92lIXappUoaVmE80Sq8rQphIVjoEo4HMSJY_0Ipy265EGlRIg_-wn-qB4ZyYRkCsKSCYHyH4pWUNcamTZoJcRaYXhsvUkLhnzBMNl-FUvetFIX_oo1Ea20RawXHPRk9nGS0Q5EKZ4EE5dfxl6FDQgcv7cpprTZ7_2To0y5sYSNqNYyE7i8hr2/s720/Petexpenseschart.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="720" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEighP3bhl_92lIXappUoaVmE80Sq8rQphIVjoEo4HMSJY_0Ipy265EGlRIg_-wn-qB4ZyYRkCsKSCYHyH4pWUNcamTZoJcRaYXhsvUkLhnzBMNl-FUvetFIX_oo1Ea20RawXHPRk9nGS0Q5EKZ4EE5dfxl6FDQgcv7cpprTZ7_2To0y5sYSNqNYyE7i8hr2/w400-h235/Petexpenseschart.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Pet Expenses from Huang, Y., et al., The Market for Pet Food, Supplies, and Services in China, EU SME Centre (2021)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> <p></p><h3 class="vh vi oq be vj vk vl pb vm vn vo pe vp vq vr vs vt vu vv vw vx vy vz wa wb wc bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8ae8" style="text-align: left;">Treating Pet Addiction</h3><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz wd tm tn pc we tp tq tr wf tt tu tv wg tx ty tz wh ub uc ud jr bj ue" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1c52"><span class="l uf ug uh bn ui uj uk ul um fl"><b>T</b></span><b class="tk jt">here is both good news and bad news in this.</b>
The bad news is the rule of holes and we just keep digging deeper by
the year. We are drawing ever closer to tipping points that, once
crossed, cannot be gotten back across for thousands of years, with
catastrophic results for civilization as we know it and our species. We
are addicted to our pets and the genetic, epigenetic, cultural and other
agents of that addiction are highly resistant to interventions by
outside agents like government dictates, scientific papers and shaming.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz wd tm tn pc we tp tq tr wf tt tu tv wg tx ty tz wh ub uc ud jr bj ue" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1c52" style="text-align: center;">*** <br /></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f467"></p><blockquote>She is female, less than 30 years old, single, with middle income, living in the city.</blockquote><p style="text-align: center;">*** <br /></p><p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ad18">In
this way, dogs are emblematic of our other addictions. They are a
symptom as much as a cause. We are addicted to the consumer culture we
have been gradually improving upon since mercantilism emerged from
feudalism and liberty was wrested from autocracy. We would sooner give
in to Hell on Earth — for surely that is what we are auguring in — than
surrender those millennial gains in comfort and freedom. You can take my
dog when you pry him from my frozen dead body in the icy North
Atlantic.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ad18"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZaAqRJHTUuKDsyQPjNr8oI9AMixnKEy0HNOWWhQFJQ8vYSP6opgJGkvDJYZWqyGq-kyFPBS2tGt4YM4yqzGZ4G0X_hnVFZt0aWljTsziv6roEENrxnJOBWvaVB-ixyZdQYcq3m99po2ZwMfpE2-q6zZfD1hSvdN1tnXBTYH5zrO7rqjPwzqgS0iYiETp0/s1720/dogfashions1889.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1124" data-original-width="1720" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZaAqRJHTUuKDsyQPjNr8oI9AMixnKEy0HNOWWhQFJQ8vYSP6opgJGkvDJYZWqyGq-kyFPBS2tGt4YM4yqzGZ4G0X_hnVFZt0aWljTsziv6roEENrxnJOBWvaVB-ixyZdQYcq3m99po2ZwMfpE2-q6zZfD1hSvdN1tnXBTYH5zrO7rqjPwzqgS0iYiETp0/w400-h261/dogfashions1889.jpg" width="400" /></a></div> <p></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Pet ownership’s more insidious injury is the hardening of our hearts for the sake of a selfish, possessive happiness. Rather than seeing other animals as autonomous beings with their own lives, desires and cultures, they are reduced to mere dolls. Living creatures become commodities that can be perfectly calibrated to one’s tastes — see the many “dog breed selectors” online. People crave the unconditional love pets offer, but such supplication requires mastery at the level of individual animals broken by “training”, control of a species’ genetic inheritance through inbreeding and the dominance of whole ecosystems to feed hundreds of millions of animals.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2776" style="text-align: right;"><a class="af un" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/04/want-to-truly-have-empathy-for-animals-stop-owning-pets" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">— Troy Vettese</a>, environmental historian at the European University Institute <br />and co-author of <i class="uo">Half-Earth Socialism</i> (Verso 2020)</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="b5dd">Our dogs are our Teddy Bears. We cling to them when the world seems so incomprehensibly nasty and frightening.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ada3">There
is a glimmer of good news, though. It is about fashion. And, if there
is one thing for certain we can say about fashion, it is this: it
changes.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="86c9">We may even outgrow our Teddy Bears.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="86c9" style="text-align: center;">*** <br /></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="86c9"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE6Egmoc6pILdjiec98cUC8pXi3r_Yrru-3x8H0MeJR4Uz-0XAu6QX4eQayPaC4b_9vpHorTah7YhhFRQlOVqyEjxjzbIesKRW5Ly2HQwAwziLZrE88CImpRGYE8fcNdI5LskYQiTdzecLr6D871Adb2hgNYLxVMgTGsL2XYpkpVZgMFSQahrlFJA-BJ_y/s980/Jabilia.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="980" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE6Egmoc6pILdjiec98cUC8pXi3r_Yrru-3x8H0MeJR4Uz-0XAu6QX4eQayPaC4b_9vpHorTah7YhhFRQlOVqyEjxjzbIesKRW5Ly2HQwAwziLZrE88CImpRGYE8fcNdI5LskYQiTdzecLr6D871Adb2hgNYLxVMgTGsL2XYpkpVZgMFSQahrlFJA-BJ_y/w640-h360/Jabilia.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="ab cl xc hz mc xd" role="separator"><span class="xe bx bl xf xg xh"></span><span class="xe bx bl xf xg xh"></span><b class="tk jt">Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</b>
We support peace in the West Bank and Gaza and the efforts by the
Center for Constitutional Rights, National Lawyers Guild, Government of
South Africa and others to bring an immediate cessation to the war.
Global Village Institute has sponsored the Green Kibbutz network and the
Marda Permaculture Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years and will
continue to do so. We also aid Ukrainian children seeking refuge in
ecovillages and permaculture farms along the Green Road. You can donate
by going to <a class="af un" href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a> or by sending donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more information on the Global Village Institute website (<a class="af un" href="http://GVIx.org" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">GVIx.org</a>). Thank you for your help.<p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2af2"><i class="uo">All
Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are
needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions
are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3)
charity.</i></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="52fb">My latest book, <b class="tk jt"><i class="uo">Retropopulationism: Clawing Back a Stable Planet from Eight Billion and Change,</i></b> is now available. Complimentary copies should reach Power Up! Patreon donors soon.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="52fb">If you are interested in climate solutions, one of the world’s most effective conferences will be in <a href="https://www.biocharconference.com/">Sacramento February 12–15</a>. Contact me directly for a $200 discount on registration. Some of the latest inventions will be in the exhibit hall.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ti tj oq tk b oz tl tm tn pc to tp tq tr ts tt tu tv tw tx ty tz ua ub uc ud jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="52fb">Following that, I will be in Santa Barbara for the <a href="https://www.lobero.org/events/eco-hero-award-2024-2/">2024 Eco Hero Award</a>. Y’all are invited!</p></div><figure class="wl wm wn wo wp oe wi wj paragraph-image"><figcaption class="wx ey wy wi wj wz xa be b bf z fz" data-selectable-paragraph="" style="text-align: left;"><br />Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share it. </figcaption></figure></div>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-5103563858173646622024-01-07T05:30:00.009-06:002024-01-07T05:30:00.135-06:00Can humans be rewilded?<br /><p><a href="">"</a><i>We need to think about how sustainable our lifestyles are. History tells us we can change.</i> <a href="">"</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPZdq-ZGb5rhwa0urHcbfSUTH53xySpgVgocds_5WhCjeIhxU3qfof2kTHi2mF3Yp8qGmRg2ltFVzbC8cLvgy7lIvpfJTvGp77yLULJgX-NvuGG30xNf7aCj1YuQoAhx-d2AgOno_P5RWjza1Z-c87eNXrS7OAIjQvDyLPxsNIAvAjJBVn3xa_MYdIaCxs/s2648/comic50skidssepia.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1520" data-original-width="2648" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPZdq-ZGb5rhwa0urHcbfSUTH53xySpgVgocds_5WhCjeIhxU3qfof2kTHi2mF3Yp8qGmRg2ltFVzbC8cLvgy7lIvpfJTvGp77yLULJgX-NvuGG30xNf7aCj1YuQoAhx-d2AgOno_P5RWjza1Z-c87eNXrS7OAIjQvDyLPxsNIAvAjJBVn3xa_MYdIaCxs/w640-h368/comic50skidssepia.jpeg" width="640" /></a></strong></div><strong><br /></strong><p></p><p><strong>While researching the evolution of dogs, </strong><span>I came across this paragraph:</span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>It is important to recognize that artificial selection, which has resulted in the production of various breeds of dogs, frequently produces exaggerated physical or behavioral characteristics that would be maladaptive in free-living wild canids. For example, racing breeds such as greyhounds and whippets can outrun most wolves, yet the changes mankind has produced in these animals would render them relatively helpless and vulnerable in the world of the wild wolf. </i></div><p>Such
an apt expression of our current predicament with regard to climate
change. We are creatures bred to the Anthropocene. Can we survive
outside our comfort range? </p><p>Human evolution proceeds in fits and
starts and we have only recently learned that the epigenome plays as
large, or perhaps even a larger, role in our behavior as do the
hard-wired genomic changes brought about by mutation and selection.</p><p>As
individuals, our fitness for purpose is the product of our environment,
our microbiome, and a few million years of mutation and selection. It
is likely that by now, through the advancement of so-called “modern”
civilization—an evolution of purpose—we have bred out some important
features that could have aided our success were we forced back to a more
primitive set of living arrangements. Hopefully, there are remnant
cultures or subcultures that remain fit for rewilding that we can learn
from.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p></p><blockquote><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote>The
Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts
and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</blockquote></div></blockquote><p></p></div><div class="subscribe-widget is-signed-up is-fully-subscribed" data-component-name="SubscribeWidget"><p class="button-wrapper"></p></div></div></div><p><span>At the Maya Mountain Research Farm in Belize </span><a href="https://www.gvix.org/coollab" rel="">our project</a><span>
is reviving a traditional milpa farming practiced for millennia from
the Peten highlands of Guatemala to the lowland jungles of the Northern
Yucatán. In this region, every few years new discoveries pull back
another veil on the civilizations that pre-existed European contact.
Many had elaborate architectures of roads, public buildings, and water
systems. Some ancient engineering marvels are outside the limited
perspective of modernity. There is, for instance, not the constancy we
have come to expect. We observe an ebb and flow. Some features, like
mounded cities, are well suited for periods of intense rains and
flooding. Others, like agroforestry and controlled burns, are best
suited to droughts. Civilizations, like seasons, come and go. They rise,
and fall, and rise again.</span></p><p><span>If you sojourn to the
Yucatán, outside of Merida, Cancun or Riviera Maya, and forofoego the bus
tours of Chichen Itza or Tulum, you may still be able to experience some
traditions that were not lost to the Conquest. The Mexican government
recognizes sixty-eight linguistic groups and 364 varieties of indigenous
languages. The present indigenous population, meaning those raised with
a native language, dress and traditions, is </span><a href="https://www.culturalsurvival.org/publications/cultural-survival-quarterly/mexicos-indigenous-population" rel="">approximately 17 to 20 million</a><span>
in México alone (where you can’t really trust the census). It is likely
ten times that across Mesoamerica. The largest language group is Maya,
followed by Zapoteco, Mixteco, Otomí, Tzeltal, Tztotzil, Totonaca,
Mazateco and Chol. </span></p><p>During their long histories, native
cultures experienced many climate extremes. Sometimes those changes
divided the eras used by anthropologists such as pre-classic, classic,
and post-classic. Sometimes they marked the birth—or the termination
point—of an entire civilization. In the Maya world, we know that weather
extremes brought the end of some city-states, mass migrations, and
reversion to small farmsteads, mostly without significant depopulation.
In good times, complex societies grew commercial annual crops and
managed large herds to feed their populous cities. In bad times, they
lived by reversion to milpa—rotational perennials and patch forest
clearing with integrated free-range animals managed for extended
families, not export.</p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">Cachorro Pibil<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§cachorro-pibil"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="text-align: left;"><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><b>A number of years ago I noticed, </b>along a dirt street near my home in my adopted village, a queue that forms before sunrise and lasts until early afternoon every Sunday. I assumed for a long time that it was charity—a free meal for the poor once a week—but I was wrong. People bring their containers to be filled, pay the cook’s husband and take the food. </span></span></p></div></div></h3><p><span>At
times the line stretches the length of the block, even though the cook,
Doña Norma, fills orders at the rate of approximately one per minute.
She serves </span><em>cochinita pibil,</em><span> and hers is worth waiting an hour in line for. </span></p><p><span>I decided that I would show up one Sunday at sunrise and get a taste. An adult’s portion is </span><em>“cinquenta;” </em><span>meaning 50 pesos (about $3) for half a kilo. Some orders were for </span><em>“cien,”</em><span> or </span><em>“doscien,”</em><span>
one or two kilos, and truthfully, you can feed a whole family with that
much meat. With a half kilo of tortillas (50 cents), you can feed 4 or 5
hard-working men for the day.</span></p><p><span>In the traditional Yucatán style, a small pig is slaughtered, dressed, and marinated in </span><a href="https://elgourmet.com/recetas/cochinita-pibil-por-antonio-de-livier/" rel="">a bath of local herbs</a><span>—black
peppercorn, garlic, cinnamon, clove, cumin, achiote (annatto), oregano
and salt. Using stone metate, the herbs are ground into a rub. Bitter
oranges and limes are halved and added to some of the rub with water to
make a marinade. The pig, quartered, is soaked for 30 minutes, then
rubbed with spices, and placed in an iron kettle. A thick layer of
subdermal fat covers the meat, which is then buried in diced tomatoes,
red onions, and the marinade. The</span><em> pibil</em><span> is sealed
with banana leaves to hold in the steam before the lid is closed. The
wide pans or kettles are then taken to a pit where a fire has burned
down to coals and laid in, with coals packed around. The hole is covered
with a layer of aromatic leaves called in Maya </span><em>“sacmis.” </em><span>After hours of baking, sometimes a full night, the </span><em>pibil </em><span>is unburied and taken to the market.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRqJmInZX-rR6Z-8_o31eTV0SYwkEXO7vMXO58Hwb_2MlGs89PxWuYn2FLQkhewDvKY5voVYl6qA9PTuY6FS1xkVQA0wZUo7Y9ok7qD-dJxuRs9GWGLH0TmmPyCvet2yJPSnUt3rOlxbrCuzBENRRLDvM2QVHVxFKGIfVtJ1oE2VsEnujpglAe_8RfxonT/s734/oilroastdog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="734" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRqJmInZX-rR6Z-8_o31eTV0SYwkEXO7vMXO58Hwb_2MlGs89PxWuYn2FLQkhewDvKY5voVYl6qA9PTuY6FS1xkVQA0wZUo7Y9ok7qD-dJxuRs9GWGLH0TmmPyCvet2yJPSnUt3rOlxbrCuzBENRRLDvM2QVHVxFKGIfVtJ1oE2VsEnujpglAe_8RfxonT/w400-h275/oilroastdog.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span>Given that México has 20 million dogs, each of whom will emit three-quarters of a ton of greenhouse gases per year, and </span><a href="https://www.gob.mx/sre/prensa/mexico-announces-new-commitments-to-combat-climate-change-at-cop27?idiom=en" rel="">México has pledged</a><span> to reduce emissions 35% by 2030, one must ask, does México plan to phase out 7 million dogs in 6 years? If so, how? </span><p></p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">The Ascent of Pig<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§the-ascent-of-pig"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><p class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/140302717/the-ascent-of-pig" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;">As I try to wrap my head around the climate impacts of dogs,<span>
I wonder what it is that allows some people to eat them while others
find that practice barbaric. The dog meat trade is most widespread in
China, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia,
Indonesia and northern India. Those are not young cultures. Dog is a red
meat, quite fatty, a cross between beef and mutton but more robust.
Nureongi, commonly referred to as “meat dogs,” are the breed most often
raised for this in Korea. A city like Los Angeles will consume 30
million pounds of hot dogs (made from beef or pork) in a year, but
suggest they try ballpark dog meat dogs and the average Angels or
Dodgers fan might puke.</span></span></span></p><p class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/140302717/the-ascent-of-pig" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span> </span></span></span><span><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWtJoaRC2nbCgFPvB9IYwbooOrbf39AFBs3FlkhNWlfXGec1tnH8yuPIXEiCcUmMjUkJprXNnm0r7qBVTTLUUPEIaQQDHmyECbQ_BvcmB4saN7oUyAhQV-7-ljrL6htm0G1HwvPGSzmr6BJh3nTfLYtV_B_8lqyEMi-UqCaGwfQp-Fv7K9peMU-WBSuni2/s600/thit-cho-ngon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="600" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWtJoaRC2nbCgFPvB9IYwbooOrbf39AFBs3FlkhNWlfXGec1tnH8yuPIXEiCcUmMjUkJprXNnm0r7qBVTTLUUPEIaQQDHmyECbQ_BvcmB4saN7oUyAhQV-7-ljrL6htm0G1HwvPGSzmr6BJh3nTfLYtV_B_8lqyEMi-UqCaGwfQp-Fv7K9peMU-WBSuni2/w320-h213/thit-cho-ngon.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Dog Taster Tray</span></i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">It
was similar for pigs in the Yucatán at one time. Pigs are not
indigenous to the Western Hemisphere, although wild peccaries called
javelinas are. The Mexican hairless pig was bred in Cuba after its
forerunners were brought over on </span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://theeyehuatulco.com/2018/12/28/the-conquest-of-mexico-by-pigs/" rel="">Columbus's second voyage</a><span>.
Hernán Cortés launched the first pig farm in Yucatán in 1521, but it
was for Spaniards, not natives. Mostly vegetarian, 16th-century </span><em>indigenos </em><span>rejected
pork as tainted conqueror fare, rightly attributing some of the
diseases that ravaged and decimated their kind to Cortes’s swine herds.
While they didn’t keep hogs as household pets, they were revolted by the
idea of eating them.</span></span></span></p></div></div></h3><br /><p><span></span><strong><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2pgh3xaINNeQAwUt7WC55ctziLX1VfulEI3RG0xGjFSi4TKffhIcUdaYYNlqTDDDRaTgp25hTCslvY4jfcUAZVFSQxH8clIUyQkV7OepMFooxN0vc_LGgQckE3Q6x5jCZ7jkFUgG6P90urKTc8_sZXZc_XARITx6GqShYWWwP4YAftSks-EugCYHumNFB/s600/7-mon-thit-cho-ngon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="600" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2pgh3xaINNeQAwUt7WC55ctziLX1VfulEI3RG0xGjFSi4TKffhIcUdaYYNlqTDDDRaTgp25hTCslvY4jfcUAZVFSQxH8clIUyQkV7OepMFooxN0vc_LGgQckE3Q6x5jCZ7jkFUgG6P90urKTc8_sZXZc_XARITx6GqShYWWwP4YAftSks-EugCYHumNFB/s320/7-mon-thit-cho-ngon.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Dog Taster Tray</span></i></td></tr></tbody></table>Give it a few centuries, though, </strong><span>and Mexicans learned to use the lard for tamales and to make </span><em>chicharrones</em><span> with skin that still has fat and, occasionally, meat attached. </span><em>Chuletas de cordero, jamón casero, costillas tamarindo, cerdo agridulce</em><span>—México
developed a world heritage cuisine so dependent on pork that it became
the third largest pork importer in the world, after China and Japan.</span></p><p>A
half-hour before sunrise, I watched as four stout policemen unloaded
two full kettles, each weighing around 500 pounds, from the back of
their black and white CanAm ATV. The family had brought their pibil from
the farm to the market with the help of our local constabulary.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em></em></p><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote><em>Pibil</em><span> comes
from the Mayan word Pib, which means ‘cooking underground’, where the
meat cooks slowly until tender. Cochinita means little piggy. A Cachorro
is a puppy.</span></blockquote></div><span></span><p></p></div><p><strong>Just like eating a dog,</strong><span>
many people will take issue with killing and eating a pig. It is an
animal of similar intelligence to a dog, or to a horse or chimpanzee
(all of whom have discrete intelligences, and comparisons with human
intelligence are dicey). But the fact is, we all kill to eat. Even
vegans kill by the billions with every forkful of salad, and some of
those microscopic animals have eyes, feel pain and will try to get away
if they can. At least with the cochinita pibil in typical Maya style we
know the pig was free range its entire life, was part of a forest
ecosystem, ate the abundant leftovers from bananas, mango, avocado,
breadnut and other trees, and was a family pet that had other piglets
and Mayan children to play with. It had a good, if less than long, life.</span></p><p>We
all need to think about how sustainable our lifestyles are. There are
good examples and poor ones. The worst of us impart vast amounts of
greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, plastics into the ocean, and
long-lived poisons like radionuclides and pesticides into the
environment with abandon—far out of proportion to our importance or
position in Earth’s ecosystem. Like most everything else, we will
eventually become food for worms. The best of us think
multigenerationally and manage our footprint to become nearly invisible.
</p><p>Many societies that ancient peoples formed in history may not be
remembered now. Uncounted great stone monuments and megacities have
been reclaimed by jungles and desert sands. Many civilizations did not
wage wars or build slave empires, although a few did. Most tended tree
crops, hybridized fruits and nuts, and kept animals like these pigs to
become pibil. Or dogs, for the same reason but different seasoning.</p><p>And because one cochinita pibil is too much food for one family, whenever they made it, they created community.</p><p>With
community, we have the capacity to change. We can change how we dress,
what we eat, what kind of houses we live in, what we do for work. All
those kinds of changes are coming and they will be quick. Having strong
community bonds makes the transition easier and more fun.</p><p>Try as
we may to breed out the community-building skill by porting ourselves to
the metaverse, it is unlikely that skill will become culturally
extinct. It retains value by ritual and renewal, even if it means
standing in a long queue at sunrise on a Sunday morning.</p><div class="subscribe-widget is-signed-up is-fully-subscribed" data-component-name="SubscribeWidget"><p class="button-wrapper"></p></div><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><em>References</em><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§references"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/140302717/references"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"></svg></div></div></div></h3><p>Arnold,
Jeanne E., and Anabel Ford. "A statistical examination of settlement
patterns at Tikal, Guatemala." American Antiquity 45.4 (1980): 713-726.</p><p>Bada,
Xóchitl, and Jonathan Fox. "Persistent rurality in Mexico and ‘the
right to stay home’." The Journal of Peasant Studies 49.1 (2022): 29-53.</p><p>Campbell,
David G., et al. "The feral forests of the eastern Petén." Time and
complexity in historical ecology: Studies in the Neotropical lowlands.
Columbia University Press, 2006. 21-56.</p><p>Cruz, Saúl Velasco. El movimiento indígena y la autonomía en México. Vol. 23. Unam, 2003.</p><p>Fedick,
Scott L., and Anabel Ford. "The prehistoric agricultural landscape of
the central Maya lowlands: an examination of local variability in a
regional context." World Archaeology (1990): 18-33.</p><p>Ford, Anabel,
and Ronald Nigh. The Maya forest garden: Eight millennia of sustainable
cultivation of the tropical woodlands. Vol. 6. Routledge, 2016.</p><p>Ford,
Anabel, and Ronald Nigh. "Origins of the Maya forest garden: Maya
resource management." Journal of Ethnobiology 29.2 (2009): 213-236.</p><p>Fox,
J, Mexico’s Indigenous Population, Cultural Survival, Indigenous Rights
and Self-Determination in Mexico March 26, 2010.
https://www.culturalsurvival.org/publications/cultural-survival-quarterly/mexicos-indigenous-population</p><p>Lockwood,
Randall. "Ethology, ecology and epidemiology of canine aggression." The
Domestic Dog: Its Evolution, Behaviour & Interactions with People,
(2016): 160-181.</p><p>Thompson, Amy E., et al. "Ancient Lowland Maya
neighborhoods: Average Nearest Neighbor analysis and kernel density
models, environments, and urban scale." PloS one 17.11 (2022): e0275916.</p><div><hr /></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><div class="image2-inset"><picture></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2 " fill="none" height="16" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="#FFFFFF" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="16" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"></svg></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglohyh6qi3x-px1hYta8CILk9xnKw8IqMR8UNiKxR8Y6HCs0fOv5nIYO-jMtmItiA1Fo3tLauUgDZmows6ec03Igdtk5duLJDE7QysenilHEqaZDn5B3RlRO4niiBUhsUnCzT6SyexMRb-3dX0lHj0DkQK6ImSaqiI0iaYnDESLTK8EHWqEVAMNsZBREEm/s1200/mamlukmosquegaza.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="628" data-original-width="1200" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglohyh6qi3x-px1hYta8CILk9xnKw8IqMR8UNiKxR8Y6HCs0fOv5nIYO-jMtmItiA1Fo3tLauUgDZmows6ec03Igdtk5duLJDE7QysenilHEqaZDn5B3RlRO4niiBUhsUnCzT6SyexMRb-3dX0lHj0DkQK6ImSaqiI0iaYnDESLTK8EHWqEVAMNsZBREEm/w400-h209/mamlukmosquegaza.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><figcaption class="image-caption"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>13th century Mamluk Mosque in Gaza</i></span></figcaption></figure></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div></figure></div><p><strong>Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</strong><span>
We support peace in the West Bank and Gaza and the efforts by the
Center for Constitutional Rights, National Lawyers Guild, Government of
South Africa and others to bring an immediate cessation to the war.
Global Village Institute has sponsored the Green Kibbutz network and the
Marda Permaculture Farm in the West Bank for over 30 years and will
continue to do so. We also aid Ukrainian children seeking refuge in
ecovillages and permaculture farms along the Green Road. You can donate
by going to </span><a href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a><span> or by sending donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more information on the Global Village Institute website (</span><a href="http://GVIx.org" rel="">GVIx.org</a><span>). Thank you for your help.</span></p><p><em>All
Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are
needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions
are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3)
charity.</em></p><p><span>My latest book, </span><em><strong>Retropopulationism: Clawing Back a Stable Planet from Eight Billion and Change,</strong></em><span> is now available. Complimentary copies should reach Power Up! Patreon donors soon.</span></p><div class="pullquote"><p></p><blockquote>And
thanks once more to everyone for your support of the Global Village
Institute. Please feel free to share this post or any part of it.</blockquote><p></p></div><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-26841096313623350822023-12-31T06:00:00.022-06:002024-01-18T20:06:13.886-06:00Why do we do we love our dogs, even while they are slowly killing us?<div><p><a href="">"</a><i>We have bred our pets to suit lives of confinement, social isolation, screen time and passivity</i>.<a href="">"</a></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn2enqTn9QbNYmJeR2RXu_ca5xS3zzPkeuEBbaK1i1m8UGWttxhACEdkRbO9d2YJ3Nf4-2Gn6Fr36VjQqaUkRt62zmX7Sh8Gul_2DeG61Ev3PAT7bgt4YzbXpDBb2zv4vThIu19RKjKEycgj98YfZsEj4vQlKfFe2GR_tgt5IHNpoZQ4LVc3RvgwonEupa/s1064/masteroilbigeyes3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="1064" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn2enqTn9QbNYmJeR2RXu_ca5xS3zzPkeuEBbaK1i1m8UGWttxhACEdkRbO9d2YJ3Nf4-2Gn6Fr36VjQqaUkRt62zmX7Sh8Gul_2DeG61Ev3PAT7bgt4YzbXpDBb2zv4vThIu19RKjKEycgj98YfZsEj4vQlKfFe2GR_tgt5IHNpoZQ4LVc3RvgwonEupa/w640-h256/masteroilbigeyes3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="graf graf--p"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Hal Herzog, a professor of psychology</b> at Western Carolina University, wrote about the contradictions of dog ownership in his book, <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Some We Love, Some We Hate, Some We Eat: Why It’s So Hard To Think Straight About Animals.</i> In an interview on the popular radio show and podcast, <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Hidden Brain,</i> he explained why the World Wildlife Fund took the Chinese Giant Panda for its logo:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>[I]t has these giant circles around its eyes, which ethologists call baby releasers. So we look at that panda, and it basically logs on to that — jams into that maternal instinct that we have when we see creatures with big eyes, and it imprints on them. In some ways, it reminds us of a human infant. So, for example, researchers have shown that one of the biggest predictors of whether or not people will give money to save animals is the size of the animal’s eyes. And pandas certainly have it when it comes to eye size.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="b86c">Same for puppies. They are seen as new additions to the family. We pamper them in ways we would feel guilty pampering a child. Herzog says, “There’s a hotel that has a zen room where you can get your pets a massage. And I don’t know what else pets do in a zen room. We’re talking about dog parks. We’re talking about jeweled collars. We’re talking about pet fashion weeks.”</p></div><i></i><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>I’ve got a friend that’s an anthropologist who was born and raised in Kenya. And in the village where he was raised, they kept dogs. The dogs were allowed to roam freely in the village. They really liked dogs that we would consider mean dogs because they scared away animals, and they scared away strangers, but they weren’t considered pets. In fact, in his language, they don’t even have a word for pet. And I went to ask him. I said, Nyaga, would you, like, you know, let a dog in your house when you were living in Africa? And he said, no. I said, would you let a dog eat at the table and, you know, feed him table scraps? He said, no. I said, Nyaga, would you let a dog sleep in your bed? And the look at the horror on his face, it was like if I said, hey, I’ve got this really cool rat I just caught down at the Hudson River. You want to sleep with it tonight?</i></div><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="4358"><blockquote><blockquote>The Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</blockquote></blockquote></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="9248"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjofDK-L5dxGkJP1HfIsfihjN3xuI8kR3HO9kL6BTDGi2CvNOWTORIbZmt1CyAsvwSn7hOTxZ3U35pjErt4DWSjQubdB1ErX9aaCq5ak89pvInrG4vrbmOsZ9euXTVPuPm_ZSujJVeeytQT8pjsNAyM_jL1YSDRQYwP7wnPS-h-wdA4ALmpXjq0v2hX51qJ/s960/dogtattogirl.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="768" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjofDK-L5dxGkJP1HfIsfihjN3xuI8kR3HO9kL6BTDGi2CvNOWTORIbZmt1CyAsvwSn7hOTxZ3U35pjErt4DWSjQubdB1ErX9aaCq5ak89pvInrG4vrbmOsZ9euXTVPuPm_ZSujJVeeytQT8pjsNAyM_jL1YSDRQYwP7wnPS-h-wdA4ALmpXjq0v2hX51qJ/s320/dogtattogirl.jpg" width="256" /></a></div><br />A popular myth has it that pets are good for people and that if you get a pet, you will be a happier and healthier person. Some point to the necessity of taking a dog for a walk as forcing people into less sedentary lifestyles. <a href="https://hiddenbrain.org/podcast/our-animal-instincts/" target="_blank">Herzog says we don’t have particularly good evidence for that</a>. Many studies “say just the opposite, that people with pets are more lonely, that they’re more likely to go to the doctor, that they’re more likely to drink a lot, that they’re more likely to have ulcers.”<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7d9a">Moreover, these neurotic pathologies are then passed back to their dogs, who mirror their owners’ neuroses. The big five hallmarks of personality — neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness and conscientiousness — are all transmitted from owner to dog.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="703e">Just as most dogs have brown eyes because the blue eyes common to their wolf ancestors were bred out when they seemed more frightening, we have bred our dogs to suit lives of confinement, social isolation, screen time and passivity.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="4f20">Viral Vectors</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="3749"><b><span class="graf-dropCap">M</span>ore studies now point to dogs</b> as <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/05/1052961177/new-coronavirus-likely-from-dogs-infects-people-in-malaysia-and-haiti" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/05/1052961177/new-coronavirus-likely-from-dogs-infects-people-in-malaysia-and-haiti" rel="noopener" target="_blank">viral vectors</a>. They are among the 34 mammalian species in 39 countries to have been <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://fortune.com/well/2023/08/16/can-dogs-animals-pets-get-covid/" href="https://fortune.com/well/2023/08/16/can-dogs-animals-pets-get-covid/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">confirmed to carry SARS-CoV2</a>. The CDC doesn’t currently recommend isolating yourself from family pets if you’re sick with Covid but it does recommend avoiding close contact. That includes not:</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7641">• Petting<br />• Snuggling<br />• Kissing<br />• Sharing food, and<br />• Sleeping in the same bed</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="6824"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6Id3LghJSq9LlDyK40TvW3rIlAjC5o1Qj6-fNm_DrGoUYVhUAZkRV4-PNVh-eJH6EhD0dd6X1_EGYS7Jft2DIKgj0BVwsHB6VWXGlN7t6DO-sDZR49Z-YsTHU_SacYUH3Y-vo8XrrcNEFuya6jQQXRmOrfBfe3u5H1iTlHP_LtB39absy7rZR-UsR163x/s420/fishcomic.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="297" data-original-width="420" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6Id3LghJSq9LlDyK40TvW3rIlAjC5o1Qj6-fNm_DrGoUYVhUAZkRV4-PNVh-eJH6EhD0dd6X1_EGYS7Jft2DIKgj0BVwsHB6VWXGlN7t6DO-sDZR49Z-YsTHU_SacYUH3Y-vo8XrrcNEFuya6jQQXRmOrfBfe3u5H1iTlHP_LtB39absy7rZR-UsR163x/s320/fishcomic.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />These are good things to think about while climate change and increased temperatures are triggering an increased <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.cravepetfoods.com/blogs/dog/climate-change-and-your-dog-what-you-need-to-know" href="https://www.cravepetfoods.com/blogs/dog/climate-change-and-your-dog-what-you-need-to-know" rel="noopener" target="_blank">spread of parasite-borne diseases</a>. Low vaccination coverage, unrestricted dog movement, and high dog population turnover currently feed endemic rabies in Kenya and other African nations.<p></p><h3 class="graf graf--p" name="6824" style="text-align: left;"> </h3><h3 class="graf graf--p" name="6824" style="text-align: left;"> </h3><h3 class="graf graf--p" name="6824" style="text-align: left;"> </h3><h3 class="graf graf--p" name="6824" style="text-align: left;">Canadroids</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="1fcf"><span class="graf-dropCap">B</span>ut consider. One way we might get the companionship we crave and dog-walking health benefits we need could be to buy a robot (canadroid?) companion. Hertzog says that wouldn’t raise “the pesky ethical questions that come with pet ownership.”</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>You don’t have to worry about the ethics of depriving Aibo of a sex life by castrating him. You don’t have to worry about the ethics of leaving Aibo alone for long periods of time while you’re at your office during the day.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="2275">Assuming we could power our robopets with solar energy, could we have as fulfilling a furry house slave experience with them? Writing for <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">The National Geographic,</i> Annie Roth suggests:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Saying no when Fido gives you his best “puppy-dog eyes” can be extremely difficult. For thousands of years, dogs have been cajoling people by making this pitiful, adorable expression — an ability that may be the result of selective breeding, a new study says.</i></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i> </i><br /><i>Tiny muscles around the eyes and mouth enable terrestrial mammals to form myriad facial expressions. Those muscles are more similar in dogs and humans than in dogs and wolves, says the study by researchers from Pittsburgh’s Duquesne University. In wolves, most of the facial muscles are slow-twitch fibers, which adjust less rapidly, while in humans and domesticated dogs, most of the muscles are fast-twitch fibers, which react quickly. It’s this musculature difference that allows dogs to make puppy-dog eyes and other animated, humanlike expressions that wolves can’t.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="b82e">Communicating with facial cues is “fundamental to all humans,” says study lead author Anne Burrows. “So it seems reasonable that we would have selected dogs during selective breeding that would gaze into our eyes.” Burrows and colleagues are now investigating whether the evolution of fast-twitching muscles around dogs’ mouths played a role in the barks they developed to communicate.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="c4b0">My best guess is that AI dog robot designers can and will master these micro-muscular visual cues and make your cute little bag of bolts as fast-twitch and cortisol-stimulating as any real dog.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="2d53">Climate Pawprint</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="5a46"><span class="graf-dropCap"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdof-HUIz9zoaknlH7R6pYDOxjk3YggwkGvOnMp8leGo6_rTfxk70W3_HiBEOcJ0qtwYrYAQ27cvWVhmvScoLne0cO-UHaGZxNFj63ku4B5INn9nRu6n9Gl6MGXs4kqEOxBRVdNO0R1PdyJwuw1H9hPENE9sBl3Ghy5jxdXw4kXIGMYGKFmtNlrMvs-YNG/s420/cowcomic.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="297" data-original-width="420" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdof-HUIz9zoaknlH7R6pYDOxjk3YggwkGvOnMp8leGo6_rTfxk70W3_HiBEOcJ0qtwYrYAQ27cvWVhmvScoLne0cO-UHaGZxNFj63ku4B5INn9nRu6n9Gl6MGXs4kqEOxBRVdNO0R1PdyJwuw1H9hPENE9sBl3Ghy5jxdXw4kXIGMYGKFmtNlrMvs-YNG/s320/cowcomic.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>It would not be a bad thing if robot-dogs became fashionable, if it reduced the climate paw print of our favorite pet. In the USA, dogs and cats consume 24 to 42 percent of the animal-derived calories as humans. In that nation’s 25 thousand factory farms, there are 1.6 billion animals at any given moment. Three hundred eighty-four to 672 billion of those cows, chickens, hogs and many other animals are destined to become pet food. So, too, the fate of one-third of the fish caught in the world, much of that so-called “by-catch” or the “forage fish” needed to support larger marine life.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0234">Confronted by a backlash against private jet travel by climate activists, one of the providers in luxury aviation, CEO Patrick Hansen of Luxaviation, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/21/throw-a-dog-a-bean-how-to-reduce-the-carbon-footprint-of-your-pets" href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/21/throw-a-dog-a-bean-how-to-reduce-the-carbon-footprint-of-your-pets" rel="noopener" target="_blank">told a business convention in Monaco</a> this past October that his company’s flights produce about 2.1 tonnes of CO2 a year per passenger — the equivalent of owning three dogs.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e2b6">Which would you rather have, a private charter jet or three dogs?</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="d60c">Which do you prefer, picking up your dog’s poop in a plastic bag and sending it off to a landfill, or purpose-designed composting or worm farming? I think I know what most USAnians would say. But, rather than a getting a Great Dane or St. Bernard, consider keeping a house rabbit or guinea pig, which are vegans.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="2048"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi50I6RXZ_YE4-m0K2hqTenfeGevAOv4D_60S_s7xbR_OuVpRqGYhsbMs_m7i2jb_HetqxpJ9n0koTdwVLobGOUyAfWzRB18kBGtmgIEDGMXq77zbuLTJ2PK5jKFpl1VXzX0-iKbASPXmPirQooyednlf5lko3Wp3jK9UHrcZThoDwTyDYTpqOppIOZYy2A/s420/chickencomic.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="297" data-original-width="420" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi50I6RXZ_YE4-m0K2hqTenfeGevAOv4D_60S_s7xbR_OuVpRqGYhsbMs_m7i2jb_HetqxpJ9n0koTdwVLobGOUyAfWzRB18kBGtmgIEDGMXq77zbuLTJ2PK5jKFpl1VXzX0-iKbASPXmPirQooyednlf5lko3Wp3jK9UHrcZThoDwTyDYTpqOppIOZYy2A/s320/chickencomic.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Gourmet Options</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="635d"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>T</b></span><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">here are now vegan pet food companies</b> that claim their products are healthy for both dogs and cats (cats are obligate carnivores). I recently priced one of them, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.veggiepets.com/benevo-duo-canned-vegan-pet-food-354g-x12" href="https://www.veggiepets.com/benevo-duo-canned-vegan-pet-food-354g-x12" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Benevo</a>, located in the southeast of England between Portsmouth and Chichester. A bulk case of 12 cans of PeTA-certified Benevo Duo Cat & Dog Foods will run you 29 pounds plus shipping. An average size dog will require one can (@354 grams from potatoes, carrots, peas, tomatoes, brown rice, blueberries and cranberries) per day. Excluding shipping that would cost the owner £882 per year or £13230 for the 15-year life of the pet. A larger dog (>25 Kg) could cost £1386/y or £16260 for life (USD$1386/y or $20790) to keep up the Benevo drip.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="6f9b">Veterinarian Dr Elise Anderson with Vets for Climate Action says just as people who would consider an electric vehicle or smaller car “should start to think similarly about the size of their pets.” The smaller they are the smaller their climate paw print.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="475f"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXLCEUzmiGg-xjW4VqntNlDSd56RW0RSgDqVS4JJ_QQie4bcAdAJBzNG-9vXCm0-ZVpYzDlm8JrpYABlQ9N6upmFsnP5IIq58E6Tt2cnd1_tST6yfCUeniIfyS8GB2FLzC7v9kyImlp33xcnLDqoCpsQ2kv0Aua5jKxpAOzQVRuJU6b6NugF-9C3KXYHBL/s717/foufoupuppy.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="717" data-original-width="560" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXLCEUzmiGg-xjW4VqntNlDSd56RW0RSgDqVS4JJ_QQie4bcAdAJBzNG-9vXCm0-ZVpYzDlm8JrpYABlQ9N6upmFsnP5IIq58E6Tt2cnd1_tST6yfCUeniIfyS8GB2FLzC7v9kyImlp33xcnLDqoCpsQ2kv0Aua5jKxpAOzQVRuJU6b6NugF-9C3KXYHBL/s320/foufoupuppy.jpg" width="250" /></a></div>Miniatures, like Chihuahuas, are loved for their enormous eyes.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0337"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">References</i></b></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0322">De Silva, Sena S., and Giovanni M. Turchini. “Towards understanding the impacts of the pet food industry on world fish and seafood supplies.” Journal of agricultural and environmental ethics 21 (2008): 459–467.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="c136">Dey, Tanujit, Antonella Zanobetti, and Clas Linnman. “The risk of being bitten by a dog is higher on hot, sunny, and smoggy days.” Scientific reports 13.1 (2023): 8749.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7a8c">Greenspoon, Lior, et al. “The global biomass of wild mammals.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120.10 (2023): e2204892120.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="5543">Okin, G.S., Environmental impacts of food consumption by dogs and cats. PLoS One. 2017 Aug 2;12(8):e0181301. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0181301. eCollection 2017.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="aebd">Sheldrake, R., Dogs That Know When Their Owners Are Coming Home. New York: Three Rivers Press, 1999.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="358d">Schöberl, Iris, et al. “Psychobiological factors affecting cortisol variability in human-dog dyads.” PLoS One 12.2 (2017): e0170707.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1139">Somppi, Sanni, et al. “Dog–owner relationship, owner interpretations and dog personality are connected with the emotional reactivity of dogs.” Animals 12.11 (2022): 1338.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f60e">Wynne, Clive D. L.. Dog Is Love: Why and How Your Dog Loves You. New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt 2019.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f60e"><br /></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN4drSVXH2cmLAMNC4Zwyb0hXv4AuquJ50sxxrFruKD4Fn026IZAFCQkSe5i2FTsWw2hOUoSN7_toiAfiqZSaHpJKq5OE-WK6d1EC2YY-sT2fj8LuR1YCJzKgPHV5uj3_Ptzh8kYLUkWhwlb-RfGUmQ2ou-fu4ZsfhUpgY7e5p0lbeHW4a-06jYOQbcTu4/s778/MedicalAidtoPalestine.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="778" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN4drSVXH2cmLAMNC4Zwyb0hXv4AuquJ50sxxrFruKD4Fn026IZAFCQkSe5i2FTsWw2hOUoSN7_toiAfiqZSaHpJKq5OE-WK6d1EC2YY-sT2fj8LuR1YCJzKgPHV5uj3_Ptzh8kYLUkWhwlb-RfGUmQ2ou-fu4ZsfhUpgY7e5p0lbeHW4a-06jYOQbcTu4/w640-h426/MedicalAidtoPalestine.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><p class="graf graf--p" name="1965"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Image courtesy of </i><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.map.org.uk/news/archive/post/1522-map-warns-of-catastrophic-situation-in-gaza-calls-for-immediate-end-to-bombardment-" href="https://www.map.org.uk/news/archive/post/1522-map-warns-of-catastrophic-situation-in-gaza-calls-for-immediate-end-to-bombardment-" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Medical Aid for Palestinians</i></a><i class="markup--em markup--p-em"> (MAP)</i></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p class="graf graf--p"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</b> I continue to solicit help to settle Ukrainian refugees into ecovillages and permaculture farms. Please donate to the Green Road by going to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="noopener" target="_blank">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a> or by directing donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more info on the Global Village Institute website, or you can listen to this <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NPR Podcast</a> and read these recent articles in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Mother Jones</a> and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The World</a>. Thank you for your help.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7b21">To support kibbutz recovery please contribute <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>. To support the Palestinian homeless in Gaza and the West Bank, please donate <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=UMED48K3AGM4Y" href="https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=UMED48K3AGM4Y" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f60e"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9BsRgrnMR4PwQYkar3DD6OpmgR4Fcmh4e_eaKLkEIm2JWQIZjqfDvXrT8RIxB3vZ-_CbScpm6B6fRIJ9wcC757Xi-gNCInXnDwdnzcPVV9R3_jLmjt715CUQHHsFS3Kqc9hSMpHMDw42HNPnesKvnqqcbHfaBfirjY8lG02oxpPiMeuLg0dLv3USFI3l_/s936/mardafunder.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="936" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9BsRgrnMR4PwQYkar3DD6OpmgR4Fcmh4e_eaKLkEIm2JWQIZjqfDvXrT8RIxB3vZ-_CbScpm6B6fRIJ9wcC757Xi-gNCInXnDwdnzcPVV9R3_jLmjt715CUQHHsFS3Kqc9hSMpHMDw42HNPnesKvnqqcbHfaBfirjY8lG02oxpPiMeuLg0dLv3USFI3l_/w400-h271/mardafunder.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="d98a">Recent weather events in the UAE and Saudi Arabia should have been enough to focus the attention of delegates going to COP28 in Dubai. Will that be enough? Not even close. But we have the needed tools to fix this. We’ve had them for centuries. It is well past the time we used them. That’s why I write. That is why you support me. Thanks!</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ac19"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em"></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaOcH_19X5FAz8DTdHK_2HnJwZ7Y-fgSr4K2l8OIyIBqMxr3RMj_-nMuPSqycoitWL2ogF_YwwgWTrAfIxNBaAWJQmqIwTME88DyoGQ9I_30NI4C6TnlNIZjK1FZtwUX8RcNjE3bQkVjjAU3ReMRwHbL7_ZmMo_LXs3f3kJMOAWYZHKp6xGea4c2G9nKDP/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaOcH_19X5FAz8DTdHK_2HnJwZ7Y-fgSr4K2l8OIyIBqMxr3RMj_-nMuPSqycoitWL2ogF_YwwgWTrAfIxNBaAWJQmqIwTME88DyoGQ9I_30NI4C6TnlNIZjK1FZtwUX8RcNjE3bQkVjjAU3ReMRwHbL7_ZmMo_LXs3f3kJMOAWYZHKp6xGea4c2G9nKDP/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></i></div><i>All Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity</i><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">.</i><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f9a6">My latest book, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://a.co/d/gPqdwmf" href="https://a.co/d/gPqdwmf" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Retropopulationism: Clawing Back a Stable Planet from Eight Billion and Change</i></b></a><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">,</i></b> is now available. Complimentary copies should reach Power Up! <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.patreon.com/peaksurfer" href="https://www.patreon.com/peaksurfer" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Patreon donors</a> soon.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="81db">And thanks once more to everyone for your support of the Global Village Institute. Please feel free to share this post or any part of it. <br /></blockquote><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-21608722068832984302023-12-24T06:00:00.002-06:002023-12-31T16:01:26.433-06:00Is your best friend your dog? Really?<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="">"</a><i>Global heating increases the inclination of dogs to bite the hand that feeds them <a href="">"</a></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsenkqHy1qdM1VeoCFZUVFyT5MgdUG7DhTs6YcigUipiaOapeWpTf2d0uWaao0V2CXddZRatgvgpyQEyPAQNOr2odc89_oI3Vrh6VGgXY-DrLOOk4I2J-azHRXkB8hjTCuSm-ESHDbA80u6Oywf0AnZu8HUx7NCF2UbuygY6eXVfQGzT26K8-eFrzEux9a/s3141/oildoglegbite.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1624" data-original-width="3141" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsenkqHy1qdM1VeoCFZUVFyT5MgdUG7DhTs6YcigUipiaOapeWpTf2d0uWaao0V2CXddZRatgvgpyQEyPAQNOr2odc89_oI3Vrh6VGgXY-DrLOOk4I2J-azHRXkB8hjTCuSm-ESHDbA80u6Oywf0AnZu8HUx7NCF2UbuygY6eXVfQGzT26K8-eFrzEux9a/w640-h330/oildoglegbite.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></div><i><br /></i><p></p><p><b>Climate change</b><span> is affecting our lives in many
ways. Some are expected and, indeed, were predicted two centuries or
more ago. Others may come as a surprise. Our relationship with man’s
best friend falls into that second category.</span></p><div class="pullquote"><p></p><blockquote><i>If
you see two life forms—one of them's making a poop, the other one's
carrying it for him—who would you assume is in charge? — Jerry Seinfeld</i></blockquote><p></p></div><p>That
Seinfeld gag line speaks to a larger truth about people—that it is
almost as though we have a deeply embedded desire to be slaves.</p><p>Maybe that explains the popularity of Donald Trump and other charismatic cult leaders.</p><p>We
have ancient relationships with other animals, but few where otherwise
prim people regularly go around fingering plastic bags on their scat.
Animal love is deeply embedded in us. And more than that, at a microbial
level, there are more other animals’ DNA inside our bodies than our own
DNA, by a large margin. </p><p>Scaling up from our cells, if you come
from the overdeveloped world, you probably had a pet as a child. Most of
us did. In the USA, more than half of households own a dog. In the
Philippines, there are as many dogs as people. </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p></p><blockquote><span><a name='more'></a></span>The
Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts
and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.<span><!--more--></span></blockquote><p></p></div><div class="subscribe-widget is-signed-up is-fully-subscribed" data-component-name="SubscribeWidget"><p class="button-wrapper"></p></div></div></div><p>Of
course, it is not like that everywhere. In Zambia there is one dog for
every 45 humans. In Egypt, it’s about five dogs per thousand. Egypt has a
cat problem but that is a separate story.</p><p><span>After the US sent contaminated corn to Zambia in 2002, </span><a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/zambia/hungry-zambians-eat-dog-famine-deepens" rel="">people ate dogs</a><span>.
Can you blame them? It was a famine. The Chinese proverb goes, “If it
has legs and is not a table, I eat it. If it has scales and is not a
bathroom, I eat it. If it has wings and is not an airplane, I eat it.”
While buying, selling and trafficking dogs for meat is now illegal in
Zambia, there remains a black market for smoked dog meat. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi18R72vofr9JYYrRBFFc2ZhpXBdPf5NpXNx_Tpv3Ds_AJXO42qVCl7xx6wwZye6y7JjeU8u2IYnz8ShPexNGAB8-XOxfYn9HifS4da0qVTzJ8A1KNDZlGku47dK6BwC_CzCsJSnLD-bdkfQA1KMsaofl-EXDOL10AgKiyquOkEz4K-e40k0snXG-ua7Qbk/s1960/retropopadvertsm.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1285" data-original-width="1960" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi18R72vofr9JYYrRBFFc2ZhpXBdPf5NpXNx_Tpv3Ds_AJXO42qVCl7xx6wwZye6y7JjeU8u2IYnz8ShPexNGAB8-XOxfYn9HifS4da0qVTzJ8A1KNDZlGku47dK6BwC_CzCsJSnLD-bdkfQA1KMsaofl-EXDOL10AgKiyquOkEz4K-e40k0snXG-ua7Qbk/w400-h263/retropopadvertsm.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span>We recently celebrated the publication of my new book, </span><i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CP43LHYY/" rel="">Retropopulationism</a></i><span>.
I’ll be doing a West Coast tour later this winter. The book explores
the likely trajectory of human demographics over the coming decades as
we settle into the effects of climate change, endocrine disrupters, peak
everything, and the biophysical economics of overshoot. Among the
subjects I did not include but reserved for a future book was the
problem of pets.</span><p></p><p><span></span></p><p>I asked Mr. Google what city had the most dogs. He said, “a study
conducted by Protect My Paws, a pet insurance comparison platform, found
that Houston is home to the world's highest ratio of dogs to humans at
52.1 dogs per 100 humans.” That sentence captured my attention but not
for the reason I’d asked. It was about the words, “a pet insurance
comparison platform.”</p><p>The American Kennel Association, which has
no motive to inflate such numbers, estimates the lifetime cost of a dog,
from puppy to tottering, incontinent elder, to be anywhere from $17,650
to $93,520, depending on size, breed, and services required.
No wonder they have insurance. Even adjusted for inflation, the amount
of money USAnians per capita spend on pets each year has more than
doubled in the last 30 years. Pet insurance is now a thing.</p><p><span>One
might think the high cost of maintenance would have some effect on dogs
in the Two-Thirds World, but apparently not. A 2017 study published in </span><i>PLOS</i><span> reported: </span></p><blockquote><p>As
pet ownership increases in some developing countries, especially China,
and trends continue in pet food toward higher content and quality of
meat, globally, pet ownership will compound the environmental impacts of
human dietary choices. Reducing the rate of dog and cat ownership,
perhaps in favor of other pets that offer similar health and emotional
benefits, would considerably reduce these impacts.</p></blockquote><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvhyphenhyphenYsexFDc3u_6eYB8QV34kccKcqQVxKkWsimnJ4TUpxhWWlWyHMvwAPSz5XFt62ntvYpuBd5u8-FTBCQWiLD14xQqpNFxTQULvHhtsHZbt-FY7QpAg2cU3xgemihYr4SDQozCNpJVlWg6LKdYQfOt36sFVWbO94Lf-GoQjUs_sVEmaMfC_Z21rP4soY0/s1532/extinctions.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1028" data-original-width="1532" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvhyphenhyphenYsexFDc3u_6eYB8QV34kccKcqQVxKkWsimnJ4TUpxhWWlWyHMvwAPSz5XFt62ntvYpuBd5u8-FTBCQWiLD14xQqpNFxTQULvHhtsHZbt-FY7QpAg2cU3xgemihYr4SDQozCNpJVlWg6LKdYQfOt36sFVWbO94Lf-GoQjUs_sVEmaMfC_Z21rP4soY0/s320/extinctions.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b></b></span></span></h3><p>Globally,
dogs now outweigh all wild land animals and rival pigs in their number.
For the most part, we are not eating them, or even putting them to the
work that most were bred for. They are there to provide companionship,
entertain us and alleviate our loneliness.</p><p><span>Loneliness
alleviation comes at a cost not generally measured in GDP. It might
better be indexed to elephants, bison, and tigers. Three less lonely
weeks equals one less polar bear. In this way, wildlife globally has
fallen to less than </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/18/a-wake-up-call-total-weight-of-wild-mammals-less-than-10-of-humanitys" rel="">10 percent of the combined tonnage</a><span> of hominid men, women and children. </span></p><p>Dogs,
whose population is 10% of the human population and growing, bear a
share of the responsibility. Their biomass already outweighs all the
elephants, bison, tigers and bears. And while they may not eat elephants
and tigers, they are starting to eat more bison and the occasional
bear.</p><p>People are just 0.01% of all life but have destroyed 83% of
the rest. We don’t do it all with guns, chainsaws or combines. We do it
every time we adopt a cuddly fur-ball from the animal shelter, pet store
or puppy mill.</p><div class="pullquote"><p></p><blockquote><p>These domesticated-to-wild mass ratios emphasize the active role humans play in shaping the abundance of mammals on Earth.</p><p style="text-align: right;">— National Academy of Sciences <br /></p></blockquote><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">Climate impacts<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§climate-impacts"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/139954207/climate-impacts"> </div><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/139954207/climate-impacts"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFyNtSbBwVeL6kvUWmbgKZQ5DEDjhMbh1Nlszt9MgzkvIHPHR9q9sEjY8vHUeAXAUJxgEa2ZWiwxp3ZWRvjGLeMbTdD8uCZOdloz_0EXr72oOJuVnJncg5ZupJy4zikL1n7WzKImeVBQj_vLg_s7x_OkWepnLJMTXwKJbo3S-af68cnJxXQrgJTfuYOSWo/s1524/biomassonearth.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="882" data-original-width="1524" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFyNtSbBwVeL6kvUWmbgKZQ5DEDjhMbh1Nlszt9MgzkvIHPHR9q9sEjY8vHUeAXAUJxgEa2ZWiwxp3ZWRvjGLeMbTdD8uCZOdloz_0EXr72oOJuVnJncg5ZupJy4zikL1n7WzKImeVBQj_vLg_s7x_OkWepnLJMTXwKJbo3S-af68cnJxXQrgJTfuYOSWo/s320/biomassonearth.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>By some estimates,</b> dog food<span>
consumption results in about 64 million tons of greenhouse gases being
pumped into the atmosphere—about the same as 13.6 million cars. Other
studies look at the full life cycle of products and secondary
impacts—plastic poop baggies and vet bills—and put that number much
higher, roughly the same as combined emissions from all but the top tier
of polluting nations.</span></span></span></div></div></div></h3><p>In the US, dogs represent 30 percent
of meat consumption, pushing the USA to fifth most carnivorous country
in the world. USAnian dogs consume about as many calories as the
population of France. After digestion, that produces about 5 million
tons of dog poo per year, roughly the same annual fecal output as their
90 million dog owners.</p><p><span>UCLA geography professor </span><a href="https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/the-truth-about-cats-and-dogs-environmental-impact" rel="">Gregory Okin says</a><span> “Maybe we could all have little ponies. We’d all get more exercise taking them for walks, and they would also mow the lawn.” </span></p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">Feeling the bite<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§feeling-the-bite"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/139954207/feeling-the-bite"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>A </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-35115-6#Sec3" rel="">study</a><span> of 69,525 reported dog bite incidents</span><span>
found that dog bite incidence increased with increasing ozone,
temperature and UV irradiation, and decreased on rainy days and on
holidays. </span></span></span></p></div></div></div></h3><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7JQ3-t6Mr6joDFOV4BZeORLbDWlVFWNYS4oPSpYhNcF6uwml6_C_fR30czGOf5WoVgJ-O60XQ6RAsCExWS0jUMcxP76iqJsudr7vYIJIrd6_7VYypkAGvGe71qnK2XVIq9hcP4FuDm9b2JidJl46Vq-O4rvQKhbSBrHRVm4-cN302KL4XtdOp2GFMecVV/s1156/bitesbydegree.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="938" data-original-width="1156" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7JQ3-t6Mr6joDFOV4BZeORLbDWlVFWNYS4oPSpYhNcF6uwml6_C_fR30czGOf5WoVgJ-O60XQ6RAsCExWS0jUMcxP76iqJsudr7vYIJIrd6_7VYypkAGvGe71qnK2XVIq9hcP4FuDm9b2JidJl46Vq-O4rvQKhbSBrHRVm4-cN302KL4XtdOp2GFMecVV/s320/bitesbydegree.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Many dogs <a href="https://www.greenmatters.com/p/what-happens-to-animals-during-heat-waves" rel="">cannot adapt to heat</a><span>.
With warming temperatures, many dogs—indeed, many breeds—will not
survive. One hesitates to guess how many dog owners perished racing to
retrieve a beloved pet as wildfires bore down upon them in the past few
years, or how many more will die that way in the future.</span><p></p><p><span>Three years ago, </span><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-great-pause-week-47-downside-ofdogs.html" rel="">I posted here</a><span>: </span></p><blockquote><p>To
reach a carbon footprint of net zero by 2050, the US will need to cut
its pet population by some 10 million dogs and 10 million cats every
year for a decade and then by some 200,000 per year in the out years
towards mid-century. We’ll have to get to one dog and one cat for every
300 people .</p></blockquote><p>Are any dog owners prepared to do that? Are they even imagining the need?</p><p>My
own experience with dog-owner friends leaves me bemused and curious.
Bemused, whenever I watch them forced to bend to pick up fresh dog-do.
Or whenever they have to interrupt a story they are telling friends
because they can’t be heard over the din of the barking because their
beloved just spied a squirrel through the window or a neighbor coming to
the door. Curious, because I cannot understand this irrational drive to
self-enslavement. Why would someone give up their freedom, quiet and
ethics, and pay tens of thousands of dollars per year for that
privilege?</p><p>Maybe it is, as Seinfeld suggested, that dogs are the higher life form and we were born to serve.</p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><i>References</i><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§references"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/139954207/references"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"></svg></div></div></div></h3><p>Dey,
Tanujit, Antonella Zanobetti, and Clas Linnman. "The risk of being
bitten by a dog is higher on hot, sunny, and smoggy days." Scientific
reports 13.1 (2023): 8749. </p><p>Greenspoon, Lior, et al. "The global
biomass of wild mammals." Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 120.10 (2023): e2204892120.</p><p>Okin, G.S., Environmental
impacts of food consumption by dogs and cats. PLoS One. 2017 Aug
2;12(8):e0181301. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0181301. eCollection 2017.</p><p>Sheldrake, R., Dogs That Know When Their Owners Are Coming Home. New York: Three Rivers Press, 1999.</p><p>Salonen,
Milla. "Complex traits, complex results: The genetic, demographic, and
environmental factors of cat and dog behaviour." (2020).</p><div class="captioned-button-wrap" data-attrs="{"url":"https://cooldesign.substack.com/p/the-tradeshow-at-the-end-of-the-world?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDMxNzMyMCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTM5NzYyNDE0LCJpYXQiOjE3MDMwODUwODUsImV4cCI6MTcwNTY3NzA4NSwiaXNzIjoicHViLTYwMjM3MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.hDUeocTimGgg71yV6MnaCaHzcHQSZMNpCsBcJhmHY8o","text":"Share"}" data-component-name="CaptionedButtonToDOM"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share it.</span></i></p><p class="cta-caption"> <span></span></p><!--more--><p></p><p><b> </b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqQpvKSUvYb_uj9KXZxhptMYCWHW-z6MIihfFdVWYFsXotAePPIyczWW4EHktEelvDaOGrE6mjepbjLixH51QhAsimuXpdOIMzcusLdjYy_ZvfotSdgnJu-IWyWybhyejOA2KBkxkp7ecUxBweQ6GAr1WsSUAHgWIyiFltOE6cbAHtQvSqU7gTAz6i9eWZ/s778/MedicalAidtoPalestine.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="778" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqQpvKSUvYb_uj9KXZxhptMYCWHW-z6MIihfFdVWYFsXotAePPIyczWW4EHktEelvDaOGrE6mjepbjLixH51QhAsimuXpdOIMzcusLdjYy_ZvfotSdgnJu-IWyWybhyejOA2KBkxkp7ecUxBweQ6GAr1WsSUAHgWIyiFltOE6cbAHtQvSqU7gTAz6i9eWZ/w640-h426/MedicalAidtoPalestine.jpg" width="640" /></a></b></div><b><br /></b><p></p><p><b>Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</b><span> I continue to
solicit help to settle Ukrainian refugees into ecovillages and
permaculture farms. Please donate to the Green Road by going to </span><a href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a><span>
or by directing donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more
info on the Global Village Institute website, or you can listen to this
</span><a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="">NPR Podcast</a><span> and read these recent articles in </span><a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="">Mother Jones</a><span> and </span><a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="">The World</a><span>. Thank you for your help.</span></p><p><span>To support kibbutz recovery please contribute </span><a href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="">here</a><span>. To support the Palestinian homeless in Gaza and the West Bank, please donate </span><a href="https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=UMED48K3AGM4Y" rel="">here</a><span>.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho5tUg6qN5y5SbLndsI4uG5BGnbXSuVN4C-ALeKhvQNMJXo58Mgbvqeyjfxnh3Y_lR-IW4qQxbsAsDdVT2hP_QFxVJS_QpMSeY7ZpHD42QOqNQlYE_bW_ij0RA0QKeFdDwuYwxVrHajGL-mKSmsPHZCdf6lSqivpOfRc3DNly9twvlEP-9yTh_65pccGlh/s936/mardafunder.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="936" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho5tUg6qN5y5SbLndsI4uG5BGnbXSuVN4C-ALeKhvQNMJXo58Mgbvqeyjfxnh3Y_lR-IW4qQxbsAsDdVT2hP_QFxVJS_QpMSeY7ZpHD42QOqNQlYE_bW_ij0RA0QKeFdDwuYwxVrHajGL-mKSmsPHZCdf6lSqivpOfRc3DNly9twvlEP-9yTh_65pccGlh/s320/mardafunder.png" width="320" /></a>Recent weather events in the UAE and Saudi Arabia should have been
enough to focus the attention of delegates going to COP28 in Dubai. Will
that be enough? Not even close. But we have the needed tools to fix
this. We’ve had them for centuries. It is well past the time we used
them. That’s why I write. That is why you support me. Thanks!</div><p></p><div class="pullquote"><p><i>All
Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are
needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions
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charity.</i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3ZhH8hSMfprrnjUMvnop0LGZF_E7XObPcSSxrW-Sfsb_AwdF4flPrYT252wgLXB28B-yyP0F17VsIhstaW8XkVJIGs5H4mLj7oZ9vwKpjTa1cJpHWCSMjU22hCIQ_TuuCzsVlIlNREDuC1F7o5LAJ1YMDKuBCdWnPszPZR8UcxhOccAdn71EUKgyD5-S2/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3ZhH8hSMfprrnjUMvnop0LGZF_E7XObPcSSxrW-Sfsb_AwdF4flPrYT252wgLXB28B-yyP0F17VsIhstaW8XkVJIGs5H4mLj7oZ9vwKpjTa1cJpHWCSMjU22hCIQ_TuuCzsVlIlNREDuC1F7o5LAJ1YMDKuBCdWnPszPZR8UcxhOccAdn71EUKgyD5-S2/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></div><p>Thank you for reading The Great Change.<span></span></p></div><p><span>My latest book, </span><i><b><a href="https://a.co/d/gPqdwmf" rel="">Retropopulationism: Clawing Back a Stable Planet from Eight Billion and Change</a><span>,</span></b></i><span> is now available. Complimentary copies should reach Power Up! </span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/peaksurfer" rel="">Patreon donors</a><span> soon.</span></p><blockquote><p><i>And
thanks once more to everyone for your support of the Global Village
Institute. Please feel free to share this post or any part of it.</i></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"> </p><p style="text-align: center;"><i><b>The Great Change</b></i><span> is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</span></p></div></div></div><p>
</p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-15531788210965794612023-12-17T06:00:00.025-06:002023-12-17T06:00:00.132-06:00The Tradeshow at the End of the World<div><p style="text-align: left;"><a href=""><i>"Let's all promise to meet again next year and try again, shall we?"</i></a></p><p><i> </i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUxJN0DIKgcLOITAj0W4mZRN7jgSM5qQvbHFukvjp5fPoVkan63249xd3LMXy03Si79LqvVdJtxo9lzLZ8NB7NXcr7a539p1dFNfrt89bPqTS2ud4OasaQt0znJSuY7BtDVm5i22p2XA7wqoYI9x_TJiGn5Ru6aAVfJiBt-WSrtqTTMRe5PJG6o0p2Fdxl/s2441/OilDubaiFirewall.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1593" data-original-width="2441" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUxJN0DIKgcLOITAj0W4mZRN7jgSM5qQvbHFukvjp5fPoVkan63249xd3LMXy03Si79LqvVdJtxo9lzLZ8NB7NXcr7a539p1dFNfrt89bPqTS2ud4OasaQt0znJSuY7BtDVm5i22p2XA7wqoYI9x_TJiGn5Ru6aAVfJiBt-WSrtqTTMRe5PJG6o0p2Fdxl/w640-h418/OilDubaiFirewall.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></div><i><br /></i><p></p><div aria-hidden="false" class="bl"><div aria-describedby="creatorActionOverflowMenu" aria-hidden="false" aria-labelledby="creatorActionOverflowMenu" class="bl"><div aria-describedby="collectionSubmissionPopover" aria-hidden="false" aria-labelledby="collectionSubmissionPopover" class="bl"><div class="rz l hz"><div><div aria-describedby="73" aria-hidden="false" aria-labelledby="73" class="bl"></div></div></div></div></div></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj ml" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="03ea"><b><span class="l mm mn mo bn mp mq mr ms mt ef">T</span>he
28th Conference of the Parties</b> to the Framework Convention on Climate
Change is over. People place a lot of weight on COPs, and well they
should, but they need to remember the purpose is to talk and that’s all.
Action is left to the parties — meaning the member nations of the UN,
not what happens in the delegates’ penthouse suites. Those who want
“enforceable” dictates need to think about how they would get 195
countries to agree to be told what to do by someone they did not elect,
and punished if they don’t.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="7071">Most
of the parties, or partygoers, are laggards and that’s the real
problem. They get together at COPs and set aspirational targets for the
sake of humanity. A few, mostly the Nordics, Germany and some island
nations, actually exceed them. The majority talk a good game but duck
out when the workday starts.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="07c7">I wrote here last week:</p><p class="ln lo mx lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6416" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Ever since Eleanor Roosevelt conceived of it, the United Nations has been a watering hole, not a battlefield. It does not have its own army. It can’t force those who sign its treaties to abide by them. Roosevelt saw the value, however, of being able to talk. To negotiate. To set a North Star in the sky. Can we all agree that genocide is bad? Can we establish laws of war? A Law of the Ocean? A Convention on Biodiversity? A Framework Convention on Climate Change by which we come together each year and set targets and ratchet ambition, even if we lack the power to enforce? To quote the Executive Secretary, “Parties must know what is needed to put NDCs (Nationally Determined Goals) on a pathway to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, and 60% by 2035.”</i></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f742">While COP agreements are not legally binding, they send a signal to banks, governments and investors, shaping global policy.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f742"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a> <p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f742" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">The
Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts
and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</span></i></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="a1c8" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;"><span></span></span></i></p><br /><!--more--><i><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></i><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" class="wp-image-8010" height="362" src="https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Seasonal-Sep2023-1024x577.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="640" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>If you are told Earth is not already 1.5 or 2 degrees warmer, always ask what baseline year is being compared.</i></span></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i> </i></span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><h3 class="my mz gh be na nb nc nd ne nf ng nh ni nj nk nl nm nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6996" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></h3><h3 class="my mz gh be na nb nc nd ne nf ng nh ni nj nk nl nm nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6996" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Got Gas?</span></h3><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq nw ls lt lu nx lw lx ly ny ma mb mc nz me mf mg oa mi mj mk fo bj ml" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="736c"><span class="l mm mn mo bn mp mq mr ms mt ef">T</span>he
COP28 methane agreement is a good example of COP producing results and
member states then promptly backtracking. US Presidential Climate Envoy <a class="af ob" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLa6FInC4-0&t=11s" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">John Kerry rose to the podium</a>,
patted himself on the back for having helped negotiate a “commitment”
of 155 members, and promised the US would do its part by halting gas
flaring, plugging abandoned wells and mines, and repairing leaking
wellheads and pipelines — reducing methane emissions 30% by 2030.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“I just remind everybody here our pledge is to reduce methane by 30% globally by 2030 — well, if we do that as we’ve been told by the IEA — that is the equivalent of every car in the world, every truck in the world, every ship in the world, every airplane in the world, all going to zero emissions by that period of time. So it’s ambitious, but it’s doable”</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6e13">Thirty
by thirty (30x30) is the slogan. There is just one hitch. If reducing
methane emissions 30% is really that huge in comparison to cars, trucks,
ships and planes, then what about the 70% still being emitted after
2030? Doesn’t that pencil out to more than double present emissions from
all those sources? Let’s stop patting ourselves on the back for long
enough to get a little perspective, shall we?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="444d">At
the start of the second week of the COP, the UN Secretary-General,
Antonio Guterres, gave his own assessment. I thought it was spot on. He
acknowledged some accomplishments but he pointed to the harder work of
acting, not just talking.</p><i></i></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The global stocktake must offer a clear plan for a tripling of renewables a doubling of energy efficiency and the single-minded focus on tackling the root cause of the climate crisis — fossil fuel production and consumption…</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6a3d">He
said these things don’t just happen by themselves. He said governments —
and it does not matter if they are in the Netherlands and Belgium or
Suriname and Congo (notice here I’ve named historic exploiters or
wealth-gainers and their corresponding historic exploited or
wealth-donors), they can take positive steps by supporting training and
social protection (safety nets) for those who may be negatively
impacted, even while shutting down mines and refineries.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3bfe">In UN speak, this is called “a just, equitable and orderly energy transition for all.”</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>…a transition that takes into account the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities considering national circumstances, not to reduce ambition but to combine ambition and equity.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="7c85">The
SG said the big emitters (John Kerry, that is your country) need to
make extra efforts to cut emissions and the wealthier countries (John
Kerry, that is also your country) have to support emerging economies to
be able to do so.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The timelines and targets might be different for countries at different levels of development but they all must be consistent with achieving Global Net Zero by 2050 and preserving the 1.5 degree goal.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e10e">Words
come cheap. I expected to see language of this sort in the final
document, as is the norm. I was disappointed to hear the word, “net”
coming from the SG’s mouth. But Guterres was not done pointing his
finger. He had pointed it at Kerry and the oil countries. Now he pointed
it at the World Bank and IMF.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>We need all commitments made by developed countries on finance and adaptation to be met fully and <b>transparently</b> and we need increased capital and reform of the business model of multilateral development banks to massively increase direct support and leverage — far more private finance at reasonable cost for developing countries’ climate action efforts and we need far more adaptation ambition.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="d162">Translated,
he said, stop the 7-trillion annual subsidy going to fossil fuels. Stop
charging 3% interest to German and Italian companies and 30% to
Ghanaian or Colombian. Stop issuing mortgage insurance on beachfront
condos. Start offering incentives for coastal communities to pack up and
move inland, to higher ground.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4f16">This
call-out of the banksters was really one of the most important
statements to come from COP-28 but it went largely unnoticed. Money is a
fiction. Physics, nature, or climate do not care one iota. Currencies
are IOUs on the resources of future people. Every dollar or euro issued
is a debt that will come due. And yet, Guterres reminds us, there is no
transparency in the system. There is no one taking responsibility.
Calling it a house of cards in a stiff breeze does not begin to describe
the danger.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>I welcome the emerging consensus for a new framework on adaptation with a set of measurable targets to proper action but a framework without the means of implementation is like a car without wheels.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="92a1">The SG then took questions from the press and the first one, from BBC, was right on point:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>BBC: Mr Guterres if we don’t get a commitment to phase out fossil fuels in this deal does that mean this COP conference has been a failure?</i><br /><br /><i>SG: Well, the COP covers many aspects and it depends on the global balance but a central aspect in my opinion of the success of the COP would be for the COP to reach a consensus on the need to phase out fossil fuels in line with a time framework that is in line with the 1.5 degree limit. That doesn’t mean that all countries must phase out fossil fuels at the same time. The principle of common but differentiated responsibility is applied. It means that globally, the phase-out of fossil fuels needs to be compatible with net zero in 2050 and with the limit of 1.5° in temperature rise.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f219">Translation from UN speak: “Yes.”</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="0435">Breaking
that down, by 2030, six years from now, the atmosphere must have 22
gigatons — twenty-two billion metric tons — less greenhouse gases (in
CO2 equivalence) than today. That is compatible with the IPCC
pronouncement on the science for 1.5°C.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2ddc">Let’s
consider that. Once it’s added to the atmosphere, CO2 hangs around for
between 300 to 1,000 years. Other gases may take shorter or longer to
decay but CO2 equivalence provides a benchmark. As an average, about
2.5% of the CO2 in the atmosphere is removed by natural processes every
year. Nature sequesters 7.85 GtCO2e/y, or about 8 billion tons per year.
In one year — 2023 — humans added about 50 billion additional tons
CO2e. We will do likewise next year, and the year after.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4b49">To
be able to sync up with nature’s cleaning crew (and assuming they don’t
just decide to quit or strike, as they’ve been threatening), we’d have
to curtail annual emissions by 85%, not the 43% being called for by IPCC
or the 9% increase pledged in current national voluntary reduction
plans. That is a pretty big disconnect. The real estate market for caves
is booming.</p><h1 class="my mz gh be na nb nc nd ne nf ng nh ni nj nk nl nm nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="d348"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb4tyE-wVTZaUbE_nvZdpucSqGMmHjcDv7LCVBGQspPjx3Kz3mlwLUdsdCpwas4fSp7StWSClQM_AJz4LkHvPwGihK7wfqN5Dvi-c6_UC3FkkzeKmUYB9ayIp8e_CnhG7H6BbTsFtSM4a8PLtwZPgOHZ3q18A9BVAfyul5c5C6kq9dBkqOh3_ObttM0c83/s1920/COP28-0672.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1920" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb4tyE-wVTZaUbE_nvZdpucSqGMmHjcDv7LCVBGQspPjx3Kz3mlwLUdsdCpwas4fSp7StWSClQM_AJz4LkHvPwGihK7wfqN5Dvi-c6_UC3FkkzeKmUYB9ayIp8e_CnhG7H6BbTsFtSM4a8PLtwZPgOHZ3q18A9BVAfyul5c5C6kq9dBkqOh3_ObttM0c83/s320/COP28-0672.jpg" width="320" /></a></div></h1><h3 style="text-align: left;">Final Text</h3><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq nw ls lt lu nx lw lx ly ny ma mb mc nz me mf mg oa mi mj mk fo bj ml" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1d33"><span class="l mm mn mo bn mp mq mr ms mt ef">So</span> what did the final document say? We asked <a class="af ob" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/12/rich-countries-failing-show-leadership-break-cop28-impasse-activists-say" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Fiona Harvey</a>, climate reporter for <i class="mx">The Guardian</i> since COP15-Copenhagen in 2015 to give us the blow-by-blow.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>An initial text proposed “reducing both production and consumption of fossil fuels.” This was couched merely as one of a list of options that countries “could” act on.</i><br /><br /><i>Many [over]developed countries are publicly pushing hard for a phase-out of coal, oil and gas — but with caveats such as “unabated” or just coal, in the case of the US.</i><br /><br /><i>Saudi Arabia and a few allied countries are in a small minority that have publicly raised strong objections to the inclusion of any reference to reducing the production and consumption of fossil fuels in the text of a potential deal.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5a5d">A
second draft, put forward in the wee hours of the evening before the
last day, mentioned neither fossil fuel phase-out nor phase-down, but
the deletion was not entirely the fault of OPEC countries. Said Mohamed
Adow, the director of the Nairobi-based energy and climate thinktank
Power Shift Africa.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Rich countries say they want a global phase-out of fossil fuels, but they are refusing to fund it. There is simply not enough in the current text for [under]developing countries to believe there will be finance to help them decarbonize.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="9712">Greenpeace spokesperson Rebecca Newsom said,</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>What these dynamics make clear is that to really unlock the talks in Dubai, countries like the UK, US, EU, Japan, Canada and Australia need to urgently get their own house in order and significantly ramp up the public finance needed to deliver the genuinely fair and ambitious package that the world wants and needs.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6d8b">To
applause, John Kerry told the others in the room the language on fossil
fuels in the text “does not meet the test” of keeping 1.5 alive.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>I, like most of you here, refuse to be part of a charade… This is a war for survival.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5e37">The final version coming in overtime kept Kerry and other critics on board. It said:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4FY2lvat5YR8mbpEnrv02g0j88z7BNPQCRmrHFJwELgnw4GWMISHMEXEpwhSFMSYhwKvI45u0Qp8JCexB-Xc_zcYVsp9DqqfvBtbY4MGP2MgkknywaUitg01zhfobM7Q6xr9e393ZUvWJFDhT7AvQc0N7QANlUXiHg7rnOsiHc3mAIccvbE0Q4aLP4bJr/s1106/finaltext.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="888" data-original-width="1106" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4FY2lvat5YR8mbpEnrv02g0j88z7BNPQCRmrHFJwELgnw4GWMISHMEXEpwhSFMSYhwKvI45u0Qp8JCexB-Xc_zcYVsp9DqqfvBtbY4MGP2MgkknywaUitg01zhfobM7Q6xr9e393ZUvWJFDhT7AvQc0N7QANlUXiHg7rnOsiHc3mAIccvbE0Q4aLP4bJr/w640-h514/finaltext.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><h3 class="my mz gh be na nb nc nd ne nf ng nh ni nj nk nl nm nn no np nq nr ns nt nu nv bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="9963" style="text-align: left;">Conversation</h3><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq nw ls lt lu nx lw lx ly ny ma mb mc nz me mf mg oa mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="93c6">Social media comments of participants and observers were as expected:</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="0576">Al Gore @algore:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The decision at #COP28 to finally recognize that the climate crisis is, at its heart, a fossil fuel crisis is an important milestone. But it is also the bare minimum we need and is long overdue. The influence of petrostates is still evident in the half-measures and loopholes included in the final agreement… Whether this is a turning point that truly marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era depends on the actions that come next and the mobilization of finance required to achieve them.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ac88">Simon Still @simonstiell (UNFCCC Executive Director):</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>#COP28 needed to signal a hard stop to fossil fuels and their planet-burning pollution. We didn’t turn the page on the #fossilfuel era, but this is clearly the beginning of the end. We must get on with the job of putting the Paris Agreement fully to work. We must ask ourselves how much longer will the world have wait before all nations summon the political will to overcome these narrow special interests and act on behalf of the future of humanity. It is up to all of us to hold our leaders accountable to their promise to transition away from fossil fuels once and for all.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f7ed">Christiana Figueres @OutrageOptimism:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>With the letter of ‘unstoppable transformation’ presented to the Presidency last week, we saw a reinvigorated multilateralism — with a groundswell of leaders from across regions and sectors standing in solidarity to show support for delivering what the science requires. There is a recognition that COPs are just part of the shift that needs to happen. The transformation doesn’t originate from the COPs, it is already happening in the global economy and will be accelerated by entrepreneurs, investors and civil society as well as government.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6a00">Tom Rivett-Carnac @tomcarnac:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The result @COP28_UAE is not perfect but no one who understands the nature of COPs will be surprised by that. The reference that we need to transition away from fossil fuels sets a clear direction. The pace is up to all of us. We need to choose the story we want for our future and already the transition is happening at an exponential pace. We now need to accelerate even further, because #LaterIsTooLate</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="227e">350 US @350_US:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Dear @ClimateEnvoy @StateDept @POTUS: are you listening to @JoSikulu/@350Pacific?? These are the stakes. You can still take responsibility for US historical emissions & help keep #COP28 from being a death sentence for small island nations. Fast fair funded #fossilfuel phaseout!</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5cf8">Johan Rockström @jrockstrom:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>No, COP28 will not enable us to hold the 1.5°C limit, but yes, the result is a pivotal landmark. It makes clear to finance, business and societies that we are now finally — 8 years behind Paris schedule — at the beginning of the end of the fossil-fuel-driven world economy</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8a7f">António Guterres @antonioguterres:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>To those who opposed a clear reference to phase-out of fossil fuels during the #COP28 Climate Conference, I want to say: Whether you like it or not, fossil fuel phase-out is inevitable. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5c2f">Janine Felson @jfelson:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The course correction that is needed has not yet been secured. We have made an incremental advancement over BAU when what we really needed is an exponential step-change</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2140">Carlos Díaz @PochoDiaz:</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2140" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>The future is #renewables! Finally #cop28 #governments put into words what scientists have been saying for decades to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. Applause to deep, rapid and sustained reductions to limit temperature rises</i></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2df6">@andyscollick.bsky.social:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>No requirements. No obligations. No penalties. No punishments for opening new oil & gas wells or coal mines. Merely a feeble trebling of renewables. Big Oil and market forces won the day and we all know it.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3bad">Elena Ciccozzi @elenaciccizzi:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Indeed, another “declaration”, with no agreement on mandatorily put an end to fossil fuel. “Transition away”: how long will this transition be?</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f3f8">Bob Koewing @Kobojenevich:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Climate grifters trying to be relevant when the 2 biggest polluters in the world will never get on board are a waste of space.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4911">The World Watcher @WorldFollower0:</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Sadly there are many loopholes and financial support is shocking for poorer countries.</i></div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2064">Kalen Morton @morton_kalen:</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2064" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>What fuel is transporting you home?</i></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGWNbbbYmNIvdNgHM3s3gU9IDEQupxhV0Si144m-MN3-b8xuC7DoqHJUWA-T0BZuUUZjSKO3xgcRqxM0N4Bokb1Fs85Iy9PyxzfG2G5uov-eNz27vvWGN2im9YvBP6URV5s1bDrnaZLpY8Mr-BrocSsfvvx4Y-aqHCeLD0432ao0cg0EJx5DwcghVPlHd6/s1748/oilCOPfinalportrait.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1013" data-original-width="1748" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGWNbbbYmNIvdNgHM3s3gU9IDEQupxhV0Si144m-MN3-b8xuC7DoqHJUWA-T0BZuUUZjSKO3xgcRqxM0N4Bokb1Fs85Iy9PyxzfG2G5uov-eNz27vvWGN2im9YvBP6URV5s1bDrnaZLpY8Mr-BrocSsfvvx4Y-aqHCeLD0432ao0cg0EJx5DwcghVPlHd6/w400-h231/oilCOPfinalportrait.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">The Denouement</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq nw ls lt lu nx lw lx ly ny ma mb mc nz me mf mg oa mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="dd52">Personally, what I found disappointing was the language about</p><i>“accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production.”</i><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="577d">This
is a call for throwing money at hoped-for technologies of proven
worthlessness or actual destructiveness. At this late date, it is a
horrific waste of time and resources. Direct Air Capture technology
(“artificial trees”) at scale requires more renewable energy than we can
produce in time to stave off disaster. Nuclear power, at a million
dollars a Watt (Chernobyl, Fukushima), won’t power them either. A
hydrogen economy would only make the methane problem far worse. In
contrast, plants like trees and phytoplankton remove 10 tons of CO2 from
the atmosphere per acre. Once turned into durable goods or biochar,
hemp and kenaf crops readily outperform DAC in long-term CO2
sequestration.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4ca7">Instead of pushing countries into<i class="mx"> cul de sacs</i>, let’s get busy with strategies that actually work.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="979a">Prime
Minister Modi offered India as a host site for COP-29 next year. India
burns one billion tons of coal per year, 80% of which is produced
domestically. If the UNFCCC agrees, we will meet there then. If not,
COP-29 reverts to the default site, a lovely park in Bonn with swans
swimming on a lake. In 2025, COP-30 will be in Brazil, which promises to
be an even flashier trade show, and likely to be accompanied by even
greater concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, more
extreme weather, more coral bleaching, more species gone extinct, and a
rising ocean — in other words, another tradeshow at the end of the
world.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="979a"><span></span></p><!--more--> <p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote class="op" style="margin-left: 80px;"><p class="oq or gh be os ot ou ov ow ox oy mk dw" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4dca"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share it.</span></i></p></blockquote><span><!--more--></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaZy6WbClX3WW5J-ol4fBiyhWCHyCr-ww4_6herIHi3sn_6j3OBno5ITmg2jYqMZL0OgqIpJkbxQNbCHFnIvjih9xe0xKghDPJZQArRn22tX6gtPsflBOxUq1ZH_KDZLJDwjVjtW9hK5O6x1Bloe5QqL0FLPZQfk0kTLgLKRPpRRQ3eBvbK18rElNkc03m/s2088/palestine.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="988" data-original-width="2088" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaZy6WbClX3WW5J-ol4fBiyhWCHyCr-ww4_6herIHi3sn_6j3OBno5ITmg2jYqMZL0OgqIpJkbxQNbCHFnIvjih9xe0xKghDPJZQArRn22tX6gtPsflBOxUq1ZH_KDZLJDwjVjtW9hK5O6x1Bloe5QqL0FLPZQfk0kTLgLKRPpRRQ3eBvbK18rElNkc03m/w640-h302/palestine.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p></div><div class="ab ca oz pa pb pc" role="separator"><span class="pd bx bl pe pf pg"></span><span class="pd bx bl pe pf pg"></span><b class="lp gi">Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</b>
I continue to solicit help to settle Ukrainian refugees into
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weather events in the UAE and Saudi Arabia should have been enough to
focus the attention of delegates going to COP28 in Dubai. Will that be
enough? Not even close. But we have the needed tools to fix this. We’ve
had them for centuries. It is well past the time we used them. That’s
why I write. That is why you support me. Thanks!</div><p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ln lo gh lp b lq lr ls lt lu lv lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="fc14"><i class="mx">All
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</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-8913537247425116112023-12-10T05:30:00.037-06:002023-12-15T14:58:33.133-06:00The Black Mark on COP28 is not what you think<p style="text-align: left;"><i><a href="">"</a>Al-Jaber found himself hiding in a place where no one ever goes: the science.<a href="">"</a></i></p><p class="graf graf--p" style="text-align: left;"><b> </b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDZHkQdkZ2Uiu53VsLji7gRvD8yPJf9Ssm82KQ3C3dHNHHWtqSaLxss4lqfcEWSd8y-pzHgYsnjYMLFGw4YCC0f9o3RWtRANIrFBUshj_Ei-kjdvEtLA7Xf0mGuXJUIB1ro3XBco2rg-9_QM3wy2KfmMgiuy6qYrr32AZQn40WrJDfdnjyrb_A67wv9bLt/s2581/OilAlJabarBlackSpot.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1449" data-original-width="2581" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDZHkQdkZ2Uiu53VsLji7gRvD8yPJf9Ssm82KQ3C3dHNHHWtqSaLxss4lqfcEWSd8y-pzHgYsnjYMLFGw4YCC0f9o3RWtRANIrFBUshj_Ei-kjdvEtLA7Xf0mGuXJUIB1ro3XBco2rg-9_QM3wy2KfmMgiuy6qYrr32AZQn40WrJDfdnjyrb_A67wv9bLt/w400-h225/OilAlJabarBlackSpot.jpg" width="400" /></a></b></div><b>His Eminence, Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber,</b> President of the 28th Conference of the Parties (#COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (#UNFCCC) was all decked out in his fresh, brilliant white dishdasha and keffiah. He was striding from the door of his residence to the awaiting limo when his nose detected an unpleasant odor. He stopped, raised one foot and saw the cause on the sole of his shoe. He had stepped in it.<p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f5fd" style="text-align: left;">Having occasionally shared that experience, I can only feel for the man. And honestly, there is no blame. It was not his fault. S**t happens.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f5fd" style="text-align: left;"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p style="text-align: left;"></p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="7b05" style="text-align: left;"><blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">The Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</span></i></p></blockquote></blockquote><span><!--more--></span><p style="text-align: left;"> </p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e62d" style="text-align: left;">On Monday morning, I rose at an ungodly hour to attend the Sultan’s press conference and see what he had to say about the viral meme infecting the interwebs.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="efa7" style="text-align: left;"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">The Guardian:</i></p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="08a2" style="text-align: left;"><i class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">The Cop28 president told a shocking lie about fossil fuels — and he’s wrong about climate economics too</i></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="0cc0" style="text-align: left;"><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/03/climate/cop28-al-jaber-fossil-fuel-phase-out/index.html" href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/03/climate/cop28-al-jaber-fossil-fuel-phase-out/index.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CNN</a>:</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="3018" style="text-align: left;"><i class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">Climate summit leader defends controversial comments that alarmed scientists and sent shockwaves through meeting</i></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="0782" style="text-align: left;"><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/climate/cop28-aljaber-fossil-fuels.html" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/climate/cop28-aljaber-fossil-fuels.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">The New York Times</i></a><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">:</i></p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="3ac5" style="text-align: left;"><i class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">Climate Summit Leader Tries to Calm Uproar Over a Remark on Fossil Fuels</i></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="39d4" style="text-align: left;">Within the Blue and Green Zones of the COP, there was a Cat 5 snownado of outrage slamming the Sultan’s purported ignorance of the science and his defense of the oil lobby. It blew down road signs and wailed through the concrete canyons, each time louder and slightly more distorted — a Banshee’s cry of distrust, disgust, and disinformation.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f7c4" style="text-align: left;">What did the Sultan actually tell Mary Robinson, the former president of Ireland and UN special climate envoy, during a live event on November 21? I had to rewind that tape and see. What they disagreed about was her insistence that all fossil fuels can and should be phased out immediately, like within 5 or 10 years. Al-Jaber respectfully begged to differ. Such a rapid phase-out would “take the world back into caves,” he said.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="93ba" style="text-align: left;">Mrs. Robinson had clearly learned to help herself. Looking around, all she saw were sympathetic eyes. She felt quite at home. Al-Jaber found himself, by contrast, hiding in a place where no one ever goes. He had to defend the indefensible.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1e41" style="text-align: left;">He was in one sense correct, although finding that many caves to house 8 billion people would be quite the task. That is not to say we won’t be doing just that in a few decades.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="34a9" style="text-align: left;">One needs to acknowledge that at this moment, oil and gas exploration and production only make up 3.8% of the global economy, and while it would be an economic blow to many countries to phase that industry out (<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.undp.org/publications/dfs-global-decarbonization-fossil-fuel-export-dependent-economies" href="https://www.undp.org/publications/dfs-global-decarbonization-fossil-fuel-export-dependent-economies" rel="noopener" target="_blank">some 40 countries would forfeit more than 60% of their income</a>), it would not cripple the rest. I believe that was Mrs. Robinson’s point. Al-Jaber’s point was that such a timetable would cripple those who burn that carbon for fuel.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="1565" style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAL2TsxZK_yPbhiO9TAGUNvjGLqx_HPdwqdLqQuLRhfFdNEHPQPu7Y0mK1r-orRjAONlhYwXkdzxapEdZ5p6JasQpa2PKMXo3nEIlWC0NVi6xQNy66CNyvVVR3H4DNtgXGsiqxpKjCBf_9TCU3n7BpZEEYCiAE8mX7mUyUicXHIrkuN_zXNleKw5zrNc6w/s3400/fossil-fuel-primary-energy.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2400" data-original-width="3400" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAL2TsxZK_yPbhiO9TAGUNvjGLqx_HPdwqdLqQuLRhfFdNEHPQPu7Y0mK1r-orRjAONlhYwXkdzxapEdZ5p6JasQpa2PKMXo3nEIlWC0NVi6xQNy66CNyvVVR3H4DNtgXGsiqxpKjCBf_9TCU3n7BpZEEYCiAE8mX7mUyUicXHIrkuN_zXNleKw5zrNc6w/w400-h283/fossil-fuel-primary-energy.png" width="400" /></a>One barrel of oil has 1.7 million Watt-hours of energy. By comparison, a human at hard labor can generate around 2.4 kWh in a full day, so each barrel of oil provided two years of hard physical toil. Our global labor force leapt from one billion humans to one billion humans with 500 billion human-equivalent energy slaves.</blockquote><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="1565" style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwt38PE6c2ZwY9ubIaezX5s6rZYzWelUuT-l73VIQ4HMZjGYULGGHHelGlH1aJ5bMemwHW3mGsm6cfKMjMCIt5edRW9Y2vpJdtsZhsAe4o8_1ddEAGjdOfGSh6dcHSD8Q1tfD3xyiJB-jkn8qrP62u8S4DDlkg_UVXN1e4P0RPJP1EmT4MhnBPntv3tuWG/s3400/global-fossil-fuel-consumption.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2400" data-original-width="3400" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwt38PE6c2ZwY9ubIaezX5s6rZYzWelUuT-l73VIQ4HMZjGYULGGHHelGlH1aJ5bMemwHW3mGsm6cfKMjMCIt5edRW9Y2vpJdtsZhsAe4o8_1ddEAGjdOfGSh6dcHSD8Q1tfD3xyiJB-jkn8qrP62u8S4DDlkg_UVXN1e4P0RPJP1EmT4MhnBPntv3tuWG/w400-h282/global-fossil-fuel-consumption.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />In our current era you can buy that barrel for the cost of a book, a family trip to a restaurant, or a cheap suit. Because it has been so inexpensive — little more than the cost of extraction and refining — people are continually consuming more of it in all its different forms, from gasoline to plastics. Today the average human keeps 100 fossil slaves working for him or her non-stop.</blockquote><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="14f4">— Bates, <i>Retropopulationism</i></blockquote></div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;">Seriously, Mary, can we instantly phase-out 84% of global primary energy? <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels">In the USA and Germany, we’d be cutting about 50% of electricity, in Australia 67%, in Mexico 74%, and in South Africa 86%.</a> So how, exactly, would those shiny new electric cars take the gas-powered dinosaurs off the roads? <br /><br />What really got the Sultan in trouble, though, was saying that the “science did not support” a finding that such a rapid phase-out was required. Again, Al-Jaber was technically correct but on the sour side of the torch-carrying mob forming just outside his window.</div> </div><p class="graf graf--p" name="733b" style="text-align: left;">The science, which for the UNFCCC is pronounced by the esteemed Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">the</i> infallible authority, is quite clear on the point. Their most current <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Sixth Assessment Report</i> (AR6) said that a gradual phase-out of 43% by 2030 and to zero by 2050 would adhere to the 1.5°C limit. Specifically, the IPCC prescribed 60% less oil, 45% less gas, and 100% less coal by 2030 to maintain the 1.5°C global temperature guardrail erected in Paris in 2015. With <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00493-y" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00493-y" rel="noopener" target="_blank">miraculous technological carbon removal roll-outs</a> expected by 2050, IPCC’s prescription will equate with “<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/science/articles/10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744/full?j=2261792&sfmc_sub=338744099&l=94_HTML&u=83749972&mid=7236711&jb=16023&id_mc=338744099&utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=November&utm_id=2261792&Business_Goal=MARCOM&Audience=Subscribers&Email_Category=CorporateNewsletter_A&Channel=Email&BusinessGoal_Audience_EmailCategory_Channel=MARCOM_Subscribers_CorporateNewsletter_Email" href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/science/articles/10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744/full?j=2261792&sfmc_sub=338744099&l=94_HTML&u=83749972&mid=7236711&jb=16023&id_mc=338744099&utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=November&utm_id=2261792&Business_Goal=MARCOM&Audience=Subscribers&Email_Category=CorporateNewsletter_A&Channel=Email&BusinessGoal_Audience_EmailCategory_Channel=MARCOM_Subscribers_CorporateNewsletter_Email" rel="noopener" target="_blank">net zero</a>” while not getting rid of fossil extraction entirely.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="65f4" style="text-align: left;">There is good news in that at least some of our problems can be addressed by reversing climate change and building ecosystem health through a multitude of natural, antifragile and frugal means. However, none of these choices are being taken at any significant scale, and that scaling seems dangerously far off. We are poised at the edge of the cliff and will need to find a better way down than by leaping without a parachute.</blockquote><div style="text-align: left;"><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="a698">— Bates, <i>Retropopulationism</i></blockquote></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="7b42" style="text-align: left;">Al-Jaber already advanced the marker by getting fifty oil and gas companies, which account for more than 40 percent of global oil production, to join 150 supporting members in pledging “near-zero” methane emissions by 2030, at a cost of $75 billion, something that was not in the Paris Agreement and might not have been possible had not the Sultan invited more than 2456 oil executives to attend the Dubai COP. <br /></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="63a0" style="text-align: left;">Let’s be clear: the actual pledge by the United States, the world’s largest methane emitter, as announced on December 6 by Climate Envoy John Kerry, is to reduce new global methane pollution by 30% by 2030. “That is the equivalent of every car in the world, every truck in the world, every ship in the world, every airplane in the world, all going to zero emissions in that period of time,” <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZG53uhcYxs" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZG53uhcYxs" rel="noopener" target="_blank">he said</a>. It begs the question of how much damage the remaining 70% is being left to do.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="b8ac" style="text-align: left;">God Bless You please, Mrs. Robinson</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="9100" style="text-align: left;"><span class="graf-dropCap">W</span>hen Al-Jaber told Mary Robinson there was “no science” showing that her proposed rapid phasing out of fossil fuels — 100% less oil, 100% less gas, and 100% less coal by 2030 — would keep the world beneath the 1.5° guardrail, he was technically correct. The IPCC did not even consider that, and had it done so, it may well have concluded that the aerosol masking effect — a.k.a. the McPherson Paradox or Hansen’s Faustian Bargain — would spike the world 4°C warmer. At his press conference, Al-Jaber brought along the COP28 IPCC spokesperson to confirm precisely what “science” had to say on the matter.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="450c" style="text-align: left;">That, of course mattered not at all to the mob. Within hours, <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">The New York Times,</i> CNN, BBC and the rest were ignoring Al-Jaber’s protests and parroting the trending X-line portraying him as a climate denier. <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/04/cop28-president-lie-fossil-fuels-climate-economics-sultan-al-jaber" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/04/cop28-president-lie-fossil-fuels-climate-economics-sultan-al-jaber" rel="noopener" target="_blank">All nuance was lost.</a></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>“I am a man of science” Al Jaber said. “Science is stating the fact of which we must decrease fossil fuel to 43% by 2030 and to 0% by 2050 in order for humanity to be able to have an inhabitable planet.”</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="5eba" style="text-align: right;">— Sultan Al-Jaber, December 4 Press Conference</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0388" style="text-align: left;"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">ECO</i>, the <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://climatenetwork.org/updates/event-portal/cop-28/eco-newsletter-at-cop28/" href="https://climatenetwork.org/updates/event-portal/cop-28/eco-newsletter-at-cop28/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">daily NGO paper of record </a>at the COP’s glittering desert metropolis, led <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="http://www.climatenetwork.org/eco-newsletter" href="http://www.climatenetwork.org/eco-newsletter" rel="noopener" target="_blank">its front-page story</a>, “Contrary to the COP28 President’s assertions, <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">ECO</i> knows the science is abundantly clear that warming will continue as long as we keep producing and burning fossil fuels.” It was all fact, no nuance.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1e1e" style="text-align: left;">But as Norman Mailer instructed Judge Julius Hoffman in the trial of the Chicago Seven, “Facts are nothing without their nuance, sir.”</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="c3e2" style="text-align: left;">The real problem with the press conference came not from the man in 6white sitting at the center of the dias but the man from the IPCC seated to his left. The esteemed arbiter of the science had got the science wrong.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="35ef" style="text-align: left;">The mob knew that, not from reading all the published, peer-reviewed journal articles or parsing the computer model print-outs, but from <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theweek.com/in-depth/1021278/2023-extreme-weather" href="https://theweek.com/in-depth/1021278/2023-extreme-weather" rel="noopener" target="_blank">peering out their windows in the countries they had just come from.</a></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="84c6" style="text-align: left;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEium7EfzuSZinPfBhlWv8sIGOdykZStPCvbX3Tv0Wd7a9lPJnh_HIDQxaLmzblW-a1bq0zhmRX20Ofa5EozeGHvqQg2yc7rhAZGJ7cj3gCDeUBFrjiBFwWkOR6FiOIMkfE4q66yKpTTws0MefhkSwjwSwWCYW06pak4itZzE5vzFpceu0vcsK-ed-5QLHAD/s1200/Munich%20Snownado.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEium7EfzuSZinPfBhlWv8sIGOdykZStPCvbX3Tv0Wd7a9lPJnh_HIDQxaLmzblW-a1bq0zhmRX20Ofa5EozeGHvqQg2yc7rhAZGJ7cj3gCDeUBFrjiBFwWkOR6FiOIMkfE4q66yKpTTws0MefhkSwjwSwWCYW06pak4itZzE5vzFpceu0vcsK-ed-5QLHAD/w640-h336/Munich%20Snownado.jpg" width="640" /></a> <br /></div><p style="text-align: left;"></p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="502a" style="text-align: left;">Munich snownado</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="673c" style="text-align: left;"><span class="graf-dropCap">E</span>arlier this year, Cyclone Freddy, one of history’s most energetic storms, lasted in Malawi and Mozambique for more than a month. California experienced bomb cyclones and landslides. As many people were killed by tornadoes in the Midwest, South and mid-Atlantic in the first three months of 2023 as are killed in an entire “normal” year. Bangladesh, India, Laos, and Thailand saw temperatures top 113°F in April. Spain and Morocco went over 101°F (38°C). With the arrival of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, wildfires raged in Canada from coast to coast, Cyclone Mocha hit Myanmar and Pakistan, and Mawar hit Guam. India topped 45°C (113°F) and even Maui burned. Phoenix topped 100°F for 148 straight days. In September, biblical floods ravaged Libya, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey. In November, high temperatures — 20 to 35 degrees above normal — ranged from Mongolia to Russia and the Philippines, while Munich airport had a snownado.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="59ef" style="text-align: left;">North Stars and Black Holes</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="8fe1" style="text-align: left;"></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkc83q_Px6zJYrwOhbmy08EGJA4iW4rcQqcxlP9wr_7HkFi-pm7NRmeBHdHx2vTqbQikb7w1ESkJ3Xuvdg0sFZWVd65FoOSPTmUsUcpr7e7o_USil_A72orDYASgh0xhsTNz4xRKyogyP-Wg5WI3xALimf84mzfq3xZ9OkPVMpY1PdC_3oWVBeBa-LRB35/s1853/TempModelsDec2023.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1477" data-original-width="1853" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkc83q_Px6zJYrwOhbmy08EGJA4iW4rcQqcxlP9wr_7HkFi-pm7NRmeBHdHx2vTqbQikb7w1ESkJ3Xuvdg0sFZWVd65FoOSPTmUsUcpr7e7o_USil_A72orDYASgh0xhsTNz4xRKyogyP-Wg5WI3xALimf84mzfq3xZ9OkPVMpY1PdC_3oWVBeBa-LRB35/w400-h319/TempModelsDec2023.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>The Black Dot</i></span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span class="graf-dropCap">I</span> took the liberty of superimposing a black spot for where global temperature anomaly stood in November 2023, compared to the IPCC AR4 models that assume a gradual, mid-to-late century phase-out of fossil fuels.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="1841" style="text-align: left;"><span class="graf-dropCap">I</span> recognize that a monthly average global temperature change is not the same as annual or decadal averages, which is what we must go by, and that the immediate effects of the maritime rules on sulfur fuels, wildfire haze, El Niño, and methane from fracking may obscure the longer trends. That said, we are, at least for the time being, well above 1.5 and closing in on 2.0. We don’t have until mid-century for an orderly phase-down.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ea58" style="text-align: left;">For Al-Jaber, my black dot is a mark on his otherwise perfectly white dishdasha. He is fond of saying that science is his “North Star,” but in this case, the science arbiter, the IPCC, got it wrong. The poles shifted. The North Star is somewhere else in the sky.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="371b" style="text-align: left;">That said, it is an entirely different point than Al-Jaber’s critics make. They have been calling for his ouster since his appointment. They do not recognize the value of someone who can pull together divergent views and bring to the table those who have opposed the entire process and turn them into allies.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="fb3a" style="text-align: left;">When asked during a television interview whether his country would support an agreement that called for the phase-down or phaseout of fossil fuels, Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, “Absolutely not.” And yet, the Prince was persuaded by the Sultan to join the pledge to cut methane emissions by 2030.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="bd58" style="text-align: left;">Darren Woods, the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, told the Financial Times that the discussions had “put way too much emphasis on getting rid of fossil fuels, oil and gas” and not enough on “dealing with the emissions associated with them.” Yet, Exxon was also brought into the tent and joined the methane deal.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyRy32g6PrtnK_OhN0vOUWES-RcTRd33DEmMs3MeZHMGfsCaDXhMZEveJshFwJfiEnGRGBsXo0NgoYWe8EgPkDu4nzavyZBw0E29tLiyzr7lOt0DU2pRyrI6KZzISPyxLtRWeqDYRGbzU3KzJYSj-2fqF8yvrqx809ePT7dkVmV2VcVzdTX7np5fnCatf7/s1140/COP28.Dec3_banner.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="385" data-original-width="1140" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyRy32g6PrtnK_OhN0vOUWES-RcTRd33DEmMs3MeZHMGfsCaDXhMZEveJshFwJfiEnGRGBsXo0NgoYWe8EgPkDu4nzavyZBw0E29tLiyzr7lOt0DU2pRyrI6KZzISPyxLtRWeqDYRGbzU3KzJYSj-2fqF8yvrqx809ePT7dkVmV2VcVzdTX7np5fnCatf7/w640-h216/COP28.Dec3_banner.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: left;"></p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="375a" style="text-align: left;">Weasel words</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="4970" style="text-align: left;"><span class="graf-dropCap">E</span>xxon is fine with phasing out “unabated” fossil power stations but expects that utilities will soon be exclusively designing and building carbon capture and storage versions that are emissions-free, i.e.: abated. Never mind that <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00493-y" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00493-y" rel="noopener" target="_blank">those are uneconomic and don’t work very well.</a> The “clean coal” or CCS plants have the problem of what to do with the greenhouse gases once you’ve netted them. Putting them into soft drinks is all well and good until the drinkers burp. Oil companies plan to pump the CO2 down oil wells to push their oil out faster. Oil wells also burp, as do pipelines.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Mary Robinson, the former president of Ireland who tried unsuccessfully to press Mr. Al Jaber to support an end to fossil fuels, said the COP28 president was “compromised.” But she added, “He said to judge him by results, and we will.”</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="c7dd" style="text-align: right;"><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=54&emc=edit_clim_20231205&instance_id=109376&nl=climate-forward&productCode=CLIM&regi_id=47436331&segment_id=151783&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F6986b28c-3f37-5fef-8fdd-f8c30c83b0a5&user_id=ba66d819d5f2b15c000545f2d32342a8" href="https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=54&emc=edit_clim_20231205&instance_id=109376&nl=climate-forward&productCode=CLIM&regi_id=47436331&segment_id=151783&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F6986b28c-3f37-5fef-8fdd-f8c30c83b0a5&user_id=ba66d819d5f2b15c000545f2d32342a8" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">— The New York Times</i></a></p><h3 class="graf graf--h3 graf--startsWithDoubleQuote" name="3a6c" style="text-align: left;">“Absolutely not”</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="ec6c" style="text-align: left;"><span class="graf-dropCap"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi82IjZF1zBdYWHmNvXgQrLBmc6nPBopZsxWI8e_LAoK25IyMTpo_oJLrd6q5c0O0mKeXTAbfPsEdJU0INvBfm-19OtnqYAqYHcTGfJ2I5AkQaHrBDSpVo72M5qkA755PlY7HIfkr3sSp3K_46hljGvBH72Ict0gUbQhNtk9ILrUqefzvIsV5QE5oP79Lov/s1080/abcc7ae4-96a0-4e74-b135-31be470c42cb.jpeg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="652" data-original-width="1080" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi82IjZF1zBdYWHmNvXgQrLBmc6nPBopZsxWI8e_LAoK25IyMTpo_oJLrd6q5c0O0mKeXTAbfPsEdJU0INvBfm-19OtnqYAqYHcTGfJ2I5AkQaHrBDSpVo72M5qkA755PlY7HIfkr3sSp3K_46hljGvBH72Ict0gUbQhNtk9ILrUqefzvIsV5QE5oP79Lov/s320/abcc7ae4-96a0-4e74-b135-31be470c42cb.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>My pet peeve every year about this time is the claims by critics of the United Nations COP process that it is a wasted effort and has never accomplished much. What is their alternative? To let each country go their own way? To offer no guidance or peer pressure at all?<p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ad6e" style="text-align: left;">There is also a campaign by Kick Big Polluters Out and others to expel the 2456 registered attendees from Big Oil invited by the Sultan. The protesters correctly point out that is four times the number of fossil lobbyists at COP26-Glasgow. Media outlets like Democracy Now!, Climate Action Network (publisher of <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">ECO</i>) and Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project have jumped on that bandwagon. And yet strangely, there is no call for expulsion of the United States, the world’s largest oil and gas producer, which also happens to be the largest gas and petroleum product exporter and is responsible for over one-third of all planned oil and gas expansion. Nor is there any effort to expel the second and third largest polluters, China and Russia.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="5253" style="text-align: left;">Ever since Eleanor Roosevelt conceived of it, the United Nations has been a watering hole, not a battlefield. It does not have its own army. It can’t force those who sign its treaties to abide by them. Roosevelt saw the value, however, of being able to talk. To negotiate. To set a North Star in the sky. Can we all agree that genocide is bad? Can we establish laws of war? A Law of the Ocean? A Convention on Biodiversity? A Framework Convention on Climate Change by which we come together each year and set targets and ratchet ambition, even if we lack the power to enforce? To quote the Executive Secretary, “Parties must know what is needed to put NDCs [Nationally Determined Contributions] on a pathway to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, and 60% by 2035.”</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ef2d" style="text-align: left;">I find value in that.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="c26a" style="text-align: left;">Occasionally, the principles of multilateralism, consensus, and inclusion — even of those you despise and see as evil incarnate — produce results. They did in 2015 with the aspirational Paris Agreement. They did this year with the methane agreement for which we have Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber to thank.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="fce3" style="text-align: left;">The black mark on COP28 is not what you may think. It is not putting an Oil Company executive in charge. It is the mob that can’t see the genius in that.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="a22f" style="text-align: left;">References</h3><p class="graf graf--p" name="3d24" style="text-align: left;">Anderson, Kevin, Holly Jean Buck, Lili Fuhr, Oliver Geden, Glen P. Peters, and Eve Tamme. “Controversies of carbon dioxide removal.” <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Nature Reviews Earth & Environment</i> (2023): 1–7.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="756f" style="text-align: left;">Palazzo Corner, Sofia, Martin Siegert, Paulo Ceppi, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Thomas L. Frölicher, Angela Gallego-Sala, Joanna Haigh et al. “The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization.” <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Frontiers in Science</i> 1 (2023): 1170744.\</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="756f" style="text-align: left;"> <span></span></p><!--more--><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="graf graf--p" style="text-align: left;"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> </b></p><p class="graf graf--p" style="text-align: left;"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6HMYE9J-klYaM9E69cTrukiZr3H6i3C1pOqIIobso4WQAow1YA2-6ZCChKI7Agrh4MBHAizZ2ta-1vUVu2iaFwMx8YFYFfh2UWV0KwXS_i8-YRbtaPOWDQpkzvogJR24kYxRUBMwcC6wfbPcOaCm5-fjgPRIKtXET_H8hsJ9aWSfbiZxFYgvjFVjp44zC/s1606/kidsingaza.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1606" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6HMYE9J-klYaM9E69cTrukiZr3H6i3C1pOqIIobso4WQAow1YA2-6ZCChKI7Agrh4MBHAizZ2ta-1vUVu2iaFwMx8YFYFfh2UWV0KwXS_i8-YRbtaPOWDQpkzvogJR24kYxRUBMwcC6wfbPcOaCm5-fjgPRIKtXET_H8hsJ9aWSfbiZxFYgvjFVjp44zC/s320/kidsingaza.jpg" width="320" /></a></b></div><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Meanwhile, let’s end these wars.</b> I continue to solicit help to settle Ukrainian refugees into ecovillages and permaculture farms. Please donate to the Green Road by going to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="noopener" target="_blank">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a> or by directing donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more info on the Global Village Institute website, or you can listen to this <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NPR Podcast</a> and read these recent articles in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Mother Jones</a> and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The World</a>. Thank you for your help.<p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="48d8" style="text-align: left;">To support kibbutz recovery please contribute <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>. To support Palestinian refugees in Gaza and the West Bank, please donate <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=UMED48K3AGM4Y" href="https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=UMED48K3AGM4Y" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigCLOQBrXZ4ko3Fbf5wS-banFW8HKVVdWGkNRPvk6T8PozZooH0Yq_yPv1C4zts3sUApsI6nlFmpTIYwex7aGUD6TyNMuTeC8VdJSO3svhqulK4cyue-FlvPHn74KdxNoEs7OMSiz-wIrN7rVC2DkBS_Xjmh5yoMAXOdJgTpy_iYQMtKlg-LPnN9CU4XmE/s936/mardafunder.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="936" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigCLOQBrXZ4ko3Fbf5wS-banFW8HKVVdWGkNRPvk6T8PozZooH0Yq_yPv1C4zts3sUApsI6nlFmpTIYwex7aGUD6TyNMuTeC8VdJSO3svhqulK4cyue-FlvPHn74KdxNoEs7OMSiz-wIrN7rVC2DkBS_Xjmh5yoMAXOdJgTpy_iYQMtKlg-LPnN9CU4XmE/w400-h271/mardafunder.png" width="400" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">Recent weather events in the UAE and Saudi Arabia should have been enough to focus the attention of delegates going to COP28 in Dubai. Will that be enough? Not even close. But we have the needed tools to fix this. We’ve had them for centuries. It is well past the time we used them. That’s why I write. That is why you support me. Thanks!</p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="f97a" style="text-align: left;"><i class="markup--em markup--pullquote-em">All Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity.</i></blockquote><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="62aa"><b>Thank you for reading The Great Change.</b></blockquote></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="688c" style="text-align: left;">My latest book, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://a.co/d/gPqdwmf" href="https://a.co/d/gPqdwmf" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Retropopulationism: Clawing Back a Stable Planet from Eight Billion and Change</i></b></a><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">,</i></b> is now available. Complimentary copies should reach Power Up! <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.patreon.com/peaksurfer" href="https://www.patreon.com/peaksurfer" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Patreon donors</a> by Christmas.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>And thanks once more to everyone for your support of the Global Village Institute. Please feel free to share this post or any part of it.</i></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="bfc3" style="text-align: center;">The Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p><p style="text-align: left;">
</p><blockquote style="text-align: left;">
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-15872348765066457112023-12-03T05:30:00.045-06:002023-12-03T05:30:00.131-06:00Holes in COP 28<div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="">"</a><i>If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging — The First Law of Holes</i><a href="">"</a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvQT-FOzkVFocUzS6tM65zsk6tPItqAx5jLyKxrpuKXLUKxhkHZiLKOwS63vp0WmwJ27wAXQj8EKUEtvrflhNRhaI8zfRMSHJSapcUSyvEsYyBCVwJj9nN6NSNtq0fStCgE0oB3eiVMbimkmwg3r8_P1RWuCvV6n08aIkNN3EgVXj7RAeWe2hB_IzxtI3r/s1897/oilEUparliament.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="937" data-original-width="1897" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvQT-FOzkVFocUzS6tM65zsk6tPItqAx5jLyKxrpuKXLUKxhkHZiLKOwS63vp0WmwJ27wAXQj8EKUEtvrflhNRhaI8zfRMSHJSapcUSyvEsYyBCVwJj9nN6NSNtq0fStCgE0oB3eiVMbimkmwg3r8_P1RWuCvV6n08aIkNN3EgVXj7RAeWe2hB_IzxtI3r/w640-h316/oilEUparliament.jpg" width="640" /></a></b></div><b><br /></b><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>The most significant hole we have dug</b><span> is
fossil fuels. The world’s governments subsidize those to the combined
tune of $7.2 trillion per year or $228,310.50 per second. We take the
money from other sources—health care, education, small business loans,
public housing—and give golden parachutes, homes in the Hamptons or
Hempstead Heath, and four-story yachts or a seat in Congress or the
House of Lords, to oil and coal executives. Sorry, we really wanted to
get orthodontic care for our child but this year we had to give $5000 to
our neighbor, the oil company shareholder. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span>Check out this short video: </span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span></span><a href="https://twitter.com/think_or_swim/status/1729523299577631064" rel="">https://twitter.com/think_or_swim/status/1729523299577631064</a></p><p style="text-align: left;">Another
hole is consumer culture—that misplaced notion that humans are somehow
different than all the rest of nature and rules of reciprocity or fair
share do not apply. We are, after all, exceptional, and endless
expansion is our destiny, right? </p><p style="text-align: left;">It doesn’t do much good to climb
out of one hole only to fall into another, but maybe it is a step in
the right direction if we backfill the first hole so we don’t fall into
that one again while we construct ladders to get out of the next. If
COP28 does nothing else it could end fossil subsidies.</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo_8lQg09U-iJ73KCMu5ySXpy1Cd5sQ76wVUG86xE9VEtI3lxyj4ei-FR-aDG7nkDgCzu2YlSsXr3b23uFOYouxF_cX7Zqx_kM4PXkMsUkQsOfa6_fYxWvBQevqk4swuaszdIqkkwpvpnbjo12CVnY4GK7HuBGfmQB-f4cLocidA6MDq158BeAKcIH0x_t/s1932/EU%20banner.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="262" data-original-width="1932" height="86" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo_8lQg09U-iJ73KCMu5ySXpy1Cd5sQ76wVUG86xE9VEtI3lxyj4ei-FR-aDG7nkDgCzu2YlSsXr3b23uFOYouxF_cX7Zqx_kM4PXkMsUkQsOfa6_fYxWvBQevqk4swuaszdIqkkwpvpnbjo12CVnY4GK7HuBGfmQB-f4cLocidA6MDq158BeAKcIH0x_t/w640-h86/EU%20banner.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <br /> </div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote>The Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</blockquote></div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;"><span></span></span></i></p><a name='more'></a><i><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></i> <br /><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span>A recent tee-up of the COP28 debate by </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/24/briefing/climate-action.html" rel="">David Gelles for </a><i><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/24/briefing/climate-action.html" rel="">The New York Times </a></i><span>runs: </span></p></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><p><i>There’s no shortage of reasons to be alarmed by climate change these days. This year is almost certain to be the hottest in recorded history. Extreme weather is wreaking havoc around the globe. Fossil fuel production and emissions are still rising, and world leaders are not moving fast enough.</i></p></div><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><p><i>But take a moment to imagine: What if we actually succeed in addressing the climate crisis, and emerge into a new, more bountiful, more prosperous future?</i></p></div><blockquote style="text-align: left;"></blockquote><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqjaOx23f_FDTSKbD-QIVCop7zAh4QdEUm5QPbJ27zppjhFd6CAp4xyQkN2A3l6RBkYxUIFvDZnMDnMGLNhPkjMUGO1Tvb_H30kRUjoVb1wF0nw61-li4bDsYBM_CGO4tsNRpK7i5wSb_p4mZVQwM8O_lhCeSryfyWjqe1o2GxHIRPabUUBonjTOp7MC_X/s750/NCAReport+Bidenemissions.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="750" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqjaOx23f_FDTSKbD-QIVCop7zAh4QdEUm5QPbJ27zppjhFd6CAp4xyQkN2A3l6RBkYxUIFvDZnMDnMGLNhPkjMUGO1Tvb_H30kRUjoVb1wF0nw61-li4bDsYBM_CGO4tsNRpK7i5wSb_p4mZVQwM8O_lhCeSryfyWjqe1o2GxHIRPabUUBonjTOp7MC_X/s320/NCAReport+Bidenemissions.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><b>Okay, lets pause there.</b><span>
I agree with Gelles up to this point but what he is imagining as a more
bountiful, prosperous future is probably not how I imagine it. He
likely foresees an extension of 20th-century techno-utopianism—a
machine-based consumer culture made all the more prosperous by AI. I
think of it more like Howard and Elizabeth Odom did in their classic
curtain call, </span><i>The Prosperous Way Down</i><span>, which described how we could yet live better by merely living less large.</span><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span>That said, the easy way down as it appeared to the Odums in
2006 has been made more difficult by procrastination. A paper released
by six leading scientists to </span><a href="https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/6244/" rel="">pre-print last week </a><span>spelled out that cost:</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i>There is little evidence supporting assertions that: </i></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><p><i>current
greenhouse gas emissions reduction and removal methods can and will be
ramped up in time to prevent dangerous climate change; </i></p></li><li><p><i>overshoot of Paris Agreement targets will be temporary; </i></p></li><li><p><i>net zero emissions will produce a safe, stable climate; </i></p></li><li><p><i>the impacts of overshoot can be managed and reversed; </i></p></li><li><p><i>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models and assessments capture the full scope of prospective disastrous impacts; and </i></p></li><li><p><i>the risks of climate interventions are greater than the risks of inaction. </i></p></li></ul><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>These largely unsupported presumptions distort risk assessments and discount the urgent need to develop a viable mitigation strategy. Due to political pressures, many critical scientific concerns are ignored or preemptively dismissed in international negotiations. As a result, the present and growing crisis and the level of effort and time that will be required to control and rebalance the climate are severely underestimated.</i></p><p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi21kSmdaS1hqI1xcUcb2T79ybebo9ECKPSAJtS7Ki7GGvg0bDdy3wocGY6-DG6bSOqNCsxK8RonFo4jF0OJM_KuSC7Q93_yf66KMyj1QfdLObNxd3CVCvitdVj28QI6joIMAa5RNJ3GqRIFLlp9_EvT8v44GFWLQH9wMtx-H5llTBb-d6TbHbWJD4qKV0/s959/Climate2023charts.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="959" data-original-width="956" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi21kSmdaS1hqI1xcUcb2T79ybebo9ECKPSAJtS7Ki7GGvg0bDdy3wocGY6-DG6bSOqNCsxK8RonFo4jF0OJM_KuSC7Q93_yf66KMyj1QfdLObNxd3CVCvitdVj28QI6joIMAa5RNJ3GqRIFLlp9_EvT8v44GFWLQH9wMtx-H5llTBb-d6TbHbWJD4qKV0/w638-h640/Climate2023charts.JPG" width="638" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><figure><figcaption class="image-caption"><i>November 2023 climate charts courtesy of L. Simons</i></figcaption></figure></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><i><b>Electrifying News</b></i></h3><p style="text-align: left;"><i>The Times</i><span> continues:</span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px;"><i>While there’s plenty of bad news to go around, it’s not unreasonable to imagine that enduring progress is within reach. Practically every day, there are encouraging new signs that after decades of dithering, the world is finally getting more serious about tackling climate change.<br /><br />Wind and solar power are cheaper than ever and are being built at record rates around the globe. Advances in critical new technologies, from carbon capture to fusion power, are occurring with startling speed. Sales of electric vehicles are booming, and badly needed charging stations are being built.</i></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqwOkLL-akkSbhsz4wPDxytcLSzdmZUfdUoJ0MoSHsRwkzUYozCcw-Igr7ZRAtch_pDdlfbwk8369oE59BMrbO1NaP01rYxbknCJ6ieA00f7S22NEhUAT2Mwgahxx3F9XO_RnzjLNNZBq4OG14O5z6sMF2x3fBnYdDk9dRdT-sDErNRf_GfgueaV2CegJa/s1162/CarbonTracker.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="1162" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqwOkLL-akkSbhsz4wPDxytcLSzdmZUfdUoJ0MoSHsRwkzUYozCcw-Igr7ZRAtch_pDdlfbwk8369oE59BMrbO1NaP01rYxbknCJ6ieA00f7S22NEhUAT2Mwgahxx3F9XO_RnzjLNNZBq4OG14O5z6sMF2x3fBnYdDk9dRdT-sDErNRf_GfgueaV2CegJa/s320/CarbonTracker.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Yes, wind and solar
power are following a Moore’s Law of scale, which is to say, the more we
deploy, the cheaper and better each generation becomes. This was widely
predicted in the 1970s (see, eg: Amory Lovins’ <i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_energy_path" rel="">Soft Energy Paths</a></i><span> (1977), Vince Taylor’s </span><i>Energy: The Easy Path</i><span> (1979), or my own </span><i>Honicker v. Hendrie: A Lawsuit to End Atomic Power</i><span> (1978).</span><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span>That sound logic was thwarted for half a century by invested
fossil and nuclear interests that I have elsewhere labeled “Edward
Teller’s Ghost” (see: </span><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2023/03/jennifer-granholm-was-pwned.html" rel="">Jennifer Granholm was Pwned</a><span>)
but truthfully, are just technophilic contagion. Advances in critical
new technologies, from carbon capture to fusion power, viewed through a
more discerning lens, are shown to be patented snake oil. The US
Department of Energy has committed billions of taxpayer subsidies to
accelerate Direct Air Capture (artificial trees) with nothing remotely
approaching that allocated to natural carbon sequestration (real trees,
for instance) and a blind eye to the </span><a href="https://web.sas.upenn.edu/pcssm" rel="">impossible energy and materials requirements</a><span> of DAC at scale. They seem to imagine DAC will be powered by limitless, too-cheap-to-meter fusion reactors, </span><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2022/12/the-energy-departments-fusion-breakthrough-its-not-really-about-generating-electricity/" rel="">yet another Tellerian ruse</a><span> to garner money for the national laboratory eunuchs. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigg131RjCcZg6naneoqQoTE3Zr1WYHbWe4ptJBVeasO9iBGqAT_qDxctu3i-4kv0oKzbPsq5DxGLLAAvIyYw7z73_HVWDm-pkseT2h-Tc-3fgc2HT6uhGS8JeOVTbGu1L-YZTtHUDJ2_A_znKuz9MpUfiTnC3PZiXlNu_ARI3gY0EORzh_VYsDnSsY1TTj/s1069/CDRSRM.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="1069" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigg131RjCcZg6naneoqQoTE3Zr1WYHbWe4ptJBVeasO9iBGqAT_qDxctu3i-4kv0oKzbPsq5DxGLLAAvIyYw7z73_HVWDm-pkseT2h-Tc-3fgc2HT6uhGS8JeOVTbGu1L-YZTtHUDJ2_A_znKuz9MpUfiTnC3PZiXlNu_ARI3gY0EORzh_VYsDnSsY1TTj/w400-h260/CDRSRM.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span>Gelles’
so-called fusion breakthrough—20-billionths of a second of roughly
equal energy out for energy in—drawn from 192 high-powered lasers
converging on a small capsule of deuterium–tritium with the intensity of
several suns—was not about energy as much as about new ways to design
weapons. It just showed that if you put enough lasers together and had
enough electricity to power them, you could exceed the heat of the Sun.
That’s it. </span><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2022/12/the-energy-departments-fusion-breakthrough-its-not-really-about-generating-electricity/" rel="">That was the “breakthrough.”</a><span> </span><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;">As for the electric car roll-out, gas-guzzling SUVs dominate the new
car markets worldwide (51%). Last year the average footprint of a new
model reached 4.2 m2 (45.2 ft2). A typical residential bathroom, by
comparison, is 3.7 m2 (40 ft2), large enough to enclose a bathtub, sink
and toilet. </p><p style="text-align: left;"><span>SUVs became all the rage when the Clinton-Gore
Administration gave the nearly bankrupt Big Three car companies safety
and emissions waivers for any passenger car built on a truck chassis.
Automakers promptly phased out station wagons and muscle cars and
started madly building SUVs. While driving a 3-ton Escalade land yacht
gave drivers a greater sense of security, the higher center of gravity
meant rollovers. The cars had longer stopping distances, reduced
visibility and greater bravado. SUVs are </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SUV/" rel="">twice as likely</a><span> to kill whatever they hit—Fiats, bikes and pedestrians—and don’t even need to back over them to make sure. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span>Emissions from the global transportation sector could have fallen </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/oct/25/suvs-second-biggest-cause-of-emissions-rise-figures-reveal" rel="">by more than 30%</a><span> between 2010 and 2022 </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/24/motor-emissions-could-have-fallen-without-suv-trend-report" rel="">had SUVs never been introduced</a><span>.
Instead, they today account for around 46% of all global car sales,
with noticeable growth still coming in the United States, India and
Europe. EV new sales are at 14%, and even there, designs are gravitating
toward E-SUV. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span>Check out this video: </span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/i/status/1729842635320250692" rel="">https://twitter.com/i/status/1729842635320250692</a></p><p style="text-align: left;">The
giant reptiles, with the lowest possible brain-to-body-mass ratio, went
extinct. Humans cleverly evolved a very high brain-to-body ratio. So
what did we do? We wrapped ourselves in a couple of tons of steel, not
counting baby seats and all the useless stuff we carry around in the
trunk. That destroyed any brain-to-mass advantage.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><span></span></p><!--more--><p> </p><p style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></i></p><blockquote><i><span style="font-size: medium;">I
was tempted to place a paywall right here, but instead am letting this
continue on for free. I only ask that readers who feel they could spare a
buck or two to support me, please consider subscribing to The Great
Change. Thanks.</span></i></blockquote><p></p><p><i><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="pullquote" style="text-align: left;"><!--more--> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSx5_g1oJVrYv59SxDbZ4lLkHqqi3rHWNALuA_um8xoPIg6L8MrAHCO8YnTQNfPDciUDXZ4XRl-a47rc6X1xJEJeH_P0ffTDntVWN49nmoDUbEykNaU17PQqS8sPj-4gZUXBF6w-SZSMWg57P1ScM85O84ZyNfnfpKGQXWC_4S96pnoFlL89TSUGBeZsG/s969/LeonChart.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="757" data-original-width="969" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSx5_g1oJVrYv59SxDbZ4lLkHqqi3rHWNALuA_um8xoPIg6L8MrAHCO8YnTQNfPDciUDXZ4XRl-a47rc6X1xJEJeH_P0ffTDntVWN49nmoDUbEykNaU17PQqS8sPj-4gZUXBF6w-SZSMWg57P1ScM85O84ZyNfnfpKGQXWC_4S96pnoFlL89TSUGBeZsG/w400-h313/LeonChart.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><i><b>Running on Sunlight</b></i><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§running-on-sunlight"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/139231889/running-on-sunlight"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"></svg></div></div></div></h3><p><i>The Times</i><span> effuses further:</span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Emissions from China, the world’s largest polluter, will peak within the next couple years, many researchers believe. In the United States, the transition to clean power is happening faster than many realize. Those two countries just agreed to accelerate their efforts to reduce emissions, delivering a much-needed jolt of ambition ahead of climate talks in Dubai this month.</i></div><p>That is true as far as it
goes. Transition to clean power is now happening every bit as fast as it
should have in 1975, had anyone been listening to Amory Lovins. What
changed was not that subsidies were given to solar and wind companies
(they weren’t), or even that the multi-trillion-dollar subsidies were
taken away from the fossil and nuclear companies (they weren’t), but
that some of the barriers that had kept solar and wind off the market
were lifted, allowing them to compete on their merits, and they quickly
outcompeted everything else. This year China will install more new wind
energy than the rest of the world combined. It has already been doing
that with solar electric power for several years. </p><!--more--> <br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote>Trust funds and vegetables are fundamentally different. </blockquote></div><p style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></i></p><div class="pullquote" style="text-align: center;"><!--more--><i><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></i><p style="text-align: left;"><span>Still, </span><i>The Times</i><span>
seems to gloss over an important caveat. Gelles leaves the distinctly
erroneous impression that we can replace fossil power with renewables
and that nothing else needs to change. But there is one fundamental
difference. Fossil energy comes from drawing down a
three-hundred-million-year savings account of sunlight falling on Earth,
being converted by photosynthesis into carbonaceous plants, and then
being entombed in Earth’s outer crust to distill into compact
hydrocarbons. Two to three hundred million years in Earth’s geological
distillery bequeathed a bounteous trust fund of liquid sunlight. </span></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHVu2SimX-p226EpXgyVsZ-o9zL1Lun81b_YlDYlrIdmGX-RiO5lzPN4XlrmFaS_6Bebxl6n1RBuAy-b1ID2jdxPN291g1MD0OxUr_ktDRFQ305EJhDiXr7BMd1e4WJdZw2pQgtQ5wuNil3A8V9wMc3MFK2bjsFoDIPA-JPWrx7eQlAnxTVbk1OXjnSurt/s1049/EPA%20US%20GHG.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="637" data-original-width="1049" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHVu2SimX-p226EpXgyVsZ-o9zL1Lun81b_YlDYlrIdmGX-RiO5lzPN4XlrmFaS_6Bebxl6n1RBuAy-b1ID2jdxPN291g1MD0OxUr_ktDRFQ305EJhDiXr7BMd1e4WJdZw2pQgtQ5wuNil3A8V9wMc3MFK2bjsFoDIPA-JPWrx7eQlAnxTVbk1OXjnSurt/s320/EPA%20US%20GHG.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Renewables
are more like a debit card. They have to be recharged every day as the
sun passes from horizon to horizon, the wind and tides respond, and that
power is banked for this day’s use, or, with batteries and vegetables, a
few more days more. <p><span>Trust funds and vegetables are
fundamentally different. The notion that we are going to run
high-entropy systems like mega-metropolises, transoceanic air travel, AI
data centers, factory robots and billion-ton-per-year Direct Air Carbon
Capture devices on sunlight is ludicrous. There will be a reckoning.
The graceful path is cutting waste in the system while gradually scaling
back—the </span><i>Prosperous Way Down</i><span> formula. The messy
way is to build up irresistible expectations of endless economic
expansion and then crash when you hit the immovable wall we all know is
there.</span></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><i><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf6ywPjuPOUue6Ac_m0tN9d5Xph5x0GPD_dk1Wi5M8R2lG8erthqYzTqIsRlROnyyWBBJAAhjjC_jleAiDFSjhdKfPSykMbEBQcdMGkjulfK67HERuoXQ_QpJrHn_jy7DMaTN8vPVNF7Fb54LAyrjuHWWdo-rAu07rranuBGXEMbAM5BFnbUh3OLdcKkyg/s1098/TippingRisks.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1098" data-original-width="1004" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf6ywPjuPOUue6Ac_m0tN9d5Xph5x0GPD_dk1Wi5M8R2lG8erthqYzTqIsRlROnyyWBBJAAhjjC_jleAiDFSjhdKfPSykMbEBQcdMGkjulfK67HERuoXQ_QpJrHn_jy7DMaTN8vPVNF7Fb54LAyrjuHWWdo-rAu07rranuBGXEMbAM5BFnbUh3OLdcKkyg/w366-h400/TippingRisks.jpg" width="366" /></a></div></b></i><i><b>Hot Air</b></i></h3><h4 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§hot-air"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/139231889/hot-air"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"></svg></div></div></div></h4><p><i>The Times</i><span> concludes:</span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>Efforts to crack down on emissions of methane — a potent but often overlooked greenhouse gas — are ramping up. Brazil, Indonesia and other countries are taking serious steps to reduce deforestation. Youth activists are using protests and lawsuits to take on the fossil fuel industry. And in a powerful message that could be a sign of things to come, Ecuador voted this year to leave some oil in the ground.</i><br /><br /><i>These are the kinds of developments — large and small, from governments and the private sector — that together will determine just how hot our planet becomes.</i></div><p>Hang
on there. Methane emissions are continuing to accelerate and the rate
of growth is itself growing. Remote sensing and isotopic analysis reveal
it is no longer just wellhead and pipeline “fugitive” methane from
fracking, nor is it cattle and rice production, since neither of those
has significantly expanded. Nor, surprisingly, can that rise yet be
attributed to deglaciation, permafrost melt or clathrate release, as
will inevitably arrive as we breach 1.5°C (2023-25) and 2.0°C
(~2030-35). Rather, the source of all this deadly methane (methane is
20-80 times more potent in trapping heat than carbon dioxide) has been
pinpointed to the Equatorial tropics where the leading suspects are sea
level rise flooding estuarial swamps and Biblical deluges killing
forests and grasslands, leaving rotting plant material to decompose
anaerobically, which generates methane.</p><p><span>Before we pat Brazil
and Indonesia on the back for reducing deforestation, we had best look
at the latest satellite imagery. Again, had we acted in 1970, when we
well understood the problem and it was beginning to be debated at the
highest levels of government and intergovernmental fora, we might allow </span><i>The Times’ </i><span>claim to stand. Now, not so much. It simply will not hold, well, water.</span></p><p>I
agree though, “These are the kinds of developments … that together will
determine just how hot our planet becomes.” From where I sit that is
likely to be very hot indeed.</p><p><span>This is not to say it is too
late to do anything. Every step we take to reduce the harm we are doing
will make the going a little easier for our successors. The world will
never be as sweet again as it was for us, but it may still be
redeemable, even at this late hour. We can mitigate and adapt. That is
what ecovillages are showing us. It is our </span><a href="https://ecovillage.org/webinar/" rel="">“cool village” meme</a><span>. The six scientists whose pre-print I mentioned earlier concluded:</span></p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><i>…biological sequestration methods, such as the restoration of forests, grasslands, and wetlands and regenerative agriculture, are more effective, resource-efficient, and cheaper ways to achieve large-scale CO2 removal than techno-mechanical methods. Moreover, the co-impacts of biological methods are largely positive, while those of mechanical methods—which use machinery and chemicals to capture CO2—are largely negative. But despite their repeated failures, mechanical CDR methods continue to receive US government subsidies, while biological sequestration is largely ignored.</i></div></div><div class="pullquote" style="text-align: left;"><p><span>If the discussion in Dubai gets real, this can be its focus. Not </span><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-weekend-essay/the-road-to-dubai" rel="">pats on the back</a><span>. </span></p><p><span> </span><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTp39nYSXe_53XKk_ZYr-qKHp9tra_5zfg2eXkOjJBEZl97Kc1hA_XzHtjAmMk-VBQaE0zvK4aHAoi-fXNfsqTY4Plpa9pzpPLDv3gMClgoepoOaB8LKzTQl1VKeCx9bJlR2oKTmKctTNv2BQRPAL1IsMRawMVzR8kmPbdjAB9AFXTFVEgM93pEMbOmKxh/s1982/GEN%20webinar%2012.23.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1982" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTp39nYSXe_53XKk_ZYr-qKHp9tra_5zfg2eXkOjJBEZl97Kc1hA_XzHtjAmMk-VBQaE0zvK4aHAoi-fXNfsqTY4Plpa9pzpPLDv3gMClgoepoOaB8LKzTQl1VKeCx9bJlR2oKTmKctTNv2BQRPAL1IsMRawMVzR8kmPbdjAB9AFXTFVEgM93pEMbOmKxh/w640-h418/GEN%20webinar%2012.23.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span><!--more--></span><span><br /></span><p></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><i><b>References</b></i></h3><p><span>Kolbert, E., The Road to Dubai, </span><i>The New Yorker,</i><span> November 25, 2023 </span></p><p><span>Maddow, Rachel, </span><i>Prequel: An American Fight Against Fascism</i><span> (NY: Crown 2023)</span></p><p><span>Mecklin, John, The Energy Department’s fusion breakthrough: It’s not really about generating electricity, </span><i><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2022/12/the-energy-departments-fusion-breakthrough-its-not-really-about-generating-electricity/" rel="">Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists </a></i><span>(Dec 2022) </span></p><p><span>Odum, Howard T., and Elisabeth C. Odum. "The prosperous way down." </span><i>Energy </i><span>31, no. 1 (2006): 21-32.</span></p><p><span>Ripple,
W.J., Wolf, C., Gregg, J.W., Rockström, J., Newsome, T.M., Law, B.E.,
Marques, L., Lenton, T.M., Xu, C., Huq, S. and Simons, L., </span><i>The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory</i><span> (2023).</span></p><p><span>Romm, Joseph, </span><i>Why direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is not scalable, and ‘net zero’ is a dangerous myth</i><span> (Univ Penn. Car for Science, Sustainability, and the Media, 2023). </span><a href="https://web.sas.upenn.edu/pcssm" rel="">https://web.sas.upenn.edu/pcssm</a><span> </span></p><p><span>Taylor,
Graeme MacDonald, Peter Wadhams, Daniele Visioni, Tom Goreau, Leslie
Field, and Heri Kuswanto. "Bad science and good intentions prevent
effective climate action." (2023). </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.31223/X5DT25" rel="">https://doi.org/10.31223/X5DT25 </a></p><p><span>UNEP (2022).</span><i> UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window–Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies.</i><span> </span><a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022" rel="">https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022</a></p><p><span>Vaillant, John, </span><i>Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World</i><span> (NY: Random House 2023)</span></p><p><span>Wang,
Pinya, Yang Yang, Daokai Xue, Lili Ren, Jianping Tang, L. Ruby Leung,
and Hong Liao. "Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer
climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality." </span><i><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42891-2#citeas" rel="">Nature Communications </a></i><span>14, no. 1 (2023): 7257. </span></p><div></div><div></div><div><hr /></div><p><span> </span><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD7fHHxfyITR8H5J0AgGtOHrSy-D33NQ6PJvbPzwkYaUATqGxVBVFMy4VcjQgooouA3hYaYlf1W-uWdzNaiAjZzrHXBvsqs0DO8soKiHQETP5uBInBFcorYC7H7pNjaA-3sM0Bq7A5Vax4F-SoS3lgkf-s6uRkhm2yPRAC3wzO-TBTwiRjiSbZ99JlTGIB/s552/U9nG3yTV.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="552" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD7fHHxfyITR8H5J0AgGtOHrSy-D33NQ6PJvbPzwkYaUATqGxVBVFMy4VcjQgooouA3hYaYlf1W-uWdzNaiAjZzrHXBvsqs0DO8soKiHQETP5uBInBFcorYC7H7pNjaA-3sM0Bq7A5Vax4F-SoS3lgkf-s6uRkhm2yPRAC3wzO-TBTwiRjiSbZ99JlTGIB/w640-h360/U9nG3yTV.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span><br /></span><p></p><p><b>Meanwhile let’s end these wars.</b><span> I continue to
solicit help to settle Ukrainian refugees into ecovillages and
permaculture farms. Please donate to the Green Road by going to </span><a href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a><span>
or by directing donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more
info on the Global Village Institute website or you can listen to this </span><a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="">NPR Podcast</a><span> and read these recent articles in </span><a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="">Mother Jones</a><span> and </span><a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="">The World</a><span>. Thank you for your help.</span></p><p><span>To support peace in the Middle East please contribute </span><a href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/marda-farm" rel="">here</a><span> and </span><a href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="">here</a><span>.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGNs8blK5MDmYJjuxT6FmpM3qWlaR5v-QozosNzef5Mlvcl7tUdIGfYm-E_ab08_AJe1cRFOzbuG-n84OZYMajKxH0DJTnNlgNVMlkVeTvY8lFad2iDqx5BwMfd5uXyOTkzlqXFqj-x4Z10j6fOn-4BAAWVA4EIM-ikXMyNQEbPa9hF95s6WunyB0ZvB5i/s527/biocharpies.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="527" data-original-width="509" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGNs8blK5MDmYJjuxT6FmpM3qWlaR5v-QozosNzef5Mlvcl7tUdIGfYm-E_ab08_AJe1cRFOzbuG-n84OZYMajKxH0DJTnNlgNVMlkVeTvY8lFad2iDqx5BwMfd5uXyOTkzlqXFqj-x4Z10j6fOn-4BAAWVA4EIM-ikXMyNQEbPa9hF95s6WunyB0ZvB5i/s320/biocharpies.jpg" width="309" /></a></div><p></p></div><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;">Recent weather events in the UAE and Saudi Arabia should have been
enough to focus the attention of delegates going to COP28 in Dubai. Will
that be enough? Not even close. But we have the needed tools to fix
this. We’ve had them for centuries. It is well past the time we used
them. That’s why I write. That is why you support me. Thanks!</p><p style="text-align: left;"><i>All
Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are
needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions
are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3)
charity.</i></p><div class="pullquote" style="text-align: left;"><p>Thank you for reading <i><b>The Great Change.</b></i></p></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span>My latest book, </span><i><b><a href="https://a.co/d/gPqdwmf" rel="">Retropopulationism: Clawing Back a Stable Planet from Eight Billion and Change</a></b></i><span> is now available. Complimentary copies should reach Power Up! </span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/peaksurfer" rel="">Patreon donors</a><span> by Christmas. </span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><i>And
thanks once more to everyone for your support of the Global Village
Institute. Please feel free to share this post, or any part of it.</i></p><blockquote style="text-align: left;">
</blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOlrUUHuCkK6SfVDv6JeSTQOCN1uVkyHL03TOnr8f-dFXT4x3OKJ1f_2AdbvEL2NhH5mMOYYbBfO3o_eeQQhM2zsRjg6aj17F6eBz5LYYoRCLY-l-z2pHUNW-JjRoLu_GCztaYmG5NWwWC6PNbvvaPJQz0_VHo441TS4GJoAkGswiWRVssSXpEFnUmi8es/s3960/retropopchildgardenadvertfull.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2597" data-original-width="3960" height="421" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOlrUUHuCkK6SfVDv6JeSTQOCN1uVkyHL03TOnr8f-dFXT4x3OKJ1f_2AdbvEL2NhH5mMOYYbBfO3o_eeQQhM2zsRjg6aj17F6eBz5LYYoRCLY-l-z2pHUNW-JjRoLu_GCztaYmG5NWwWC6PNbvvaPJQz0_VHo441TS4GJoAkGswiWRVssSXpEFnUmi8es/w640-h421/retropopchildgardenadvertfull.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-70149656155209858892023-11-26T05:30:00.019-06:002023-11-26T05:30:00.134-06:00The Penguin Returns<p><i><a href="">"</a>One question is how Cobblepot so successfully got minions of henchmen to do his evil work for him. The same could be asked of Donald Trump or Vivek Ramaswamy … and their bankers.<a href="">"</a></i><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> <br /></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOQ3oYttdaMjcTDnA-Ldt3g4ZJCCwTIhaugn0d1PH-KHmbdsJeEM93p5s_jQs_qatQTPJXWjvyWduRIz_6_z9qUkzl15kA47Nx_FacLQUPoaMeHFBs5SzgKfpyzSWC8A_1ykDrkVAZD4mW_CYpCA8dX04e1gMDIY4AUlX2YrnI_Gc1bnKtIZTxVWtMdJsM/s1403/IMG_4446A6DCDEC9-1.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="873" data-original-width="1403" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOQ3oYttdaMjcTDnA-Ldt3g4ZJCCwTIhaugn0d1PH-KHmbdsJeEM93p5s_jQs_qatQTPJXWjvyWduRIz_6_z9qUkzl15kA47Nx_FacLQUPoaMeHFBs5SzgKfpyzSWC8A_1ykDrkVAZD4mW_CYpCA8dX04e1gMDIY4AUlX2YrnI_Gc1bnKtIZTxVWtMdJsM/w640-h398/IMG_4446A6DCDEC9-1.jpeg" width="640" /></a></b></div><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"></b><p></p><p class="graf graf--p"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><span style="font-size: medium;">In early 2019</span></b> I published a satirical post featuring Donald Trump as The Penguin, the DC Comics Batman villain (true identity: <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://dc.fandom.com/wiki/Oswald_Cobblepot" href="https://dc.fandom.com/wiki/Oswald_Cobblepot" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Oswald Chesterfield Cobblepot</a>). I probably gave my readers more credit than I should have for knowing either the comic book history or understanding the comparison. Those posts, in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2019/04/professor-cobblepots-marvelous-purple.html" href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2019/04/professor-cobblepots-marvelous-purple.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">April 2019</a>, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2020/01/thugs-and-circuses-president-cobblepots.html" href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2020/01/thugs-and-circuses-president-cobblepots.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">January 2020</a>, and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2022/12/professor-cobblepots-marvelous-final.html" href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2022/12/professor-cobblepots-marvelous-final.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">December 2022</a>, did not generate high numbers of readers, but they were fun to write.</p><p class="graf graf--p"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSoc8m1wemylEami4TfkPI_UN4_HngWKmfkKJ_YWkpL1YYdKV1FenyBL2E_p5srHQDLjAopUEP72KoqFVIwkZbIf5tKB60b5UfJS_bcRpodw_N7vVaFc784Z3JJA4ECGLa0zzMrVJACY7vtHgQClstC2QZkWmH7Hzii5H2JKO7Wn9h8s8sxIXT2hq_lXen/s640/TRUMPpenguin.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="347" data-original-width="640" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSoc8m1wemylEami4TfkPI_UN4_HngWKmfkKJ_YWkpL1YYdKV1FenyBL2E_p5srHQDLjAopUEP72KoqFVIwkZbIf5tKB60b5UfJS_bcRpodw_N7vVaFc784Z3JJA4ECGLa0zzMrVJACY7vtHgQClstC2QZkWmH7Hzii5H2JKO7Wn9h8s8sxIXT2hq_lXen/w640-h348/TRUMPpenguin.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="section-divider"><p class="graf graf--p" name="2999">I called Trump “President Cobblepot” because of an uncanny resemblance to Batman’s nemesis who manages to get himself popularly elected Mayor of Gotham and then uses the position to continue building his crime empire and eliminating rivals. That first post opened with a quote from the authors of <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Limits to Growth,</i> “We often recognize an untruth when we hear one, coming from our own mouths or those of others, and most particularly coming from advertisers and political leaders. Many of these untruths are deliberate, understood as such by both speakers and listeners. They are put forth to manipulate, lull, or entice, to postpone action, to justify self-serving action, to gain or preserve power, or to deny an uncomfortable reality. Lies distort the information stream. A system cannot function, especially in time of peril, if its information stream is confused or distorted.”</p></div><section class="section section--body" name="1969"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="1a69"><i>I was tempted to place a paywall right here, but instead am letting this continue on for free. I only ask that readers who feel they could spare a buck or two to support me, please consider subscribing to The Great Change. Thanks.</i></blockquote></div></div></section><section class="section section--body" name="4956"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><p class="graf graf--p" name="d6d9"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7VJAii0-FetXHy0r3UcE3pqdXnFH-sAs94rrwNSbl_tKvKb2jdsc8FSzvzfn3rjcrp-zuGLyKgUWg8uZ5eAQM19uJ2lgDnQY4Zxu_gK6lmRahq3gMVUDRtWgiNSkCOmCzvqu61E7UMnM-wqxnL17NlDvDy262ySm1cR6CUcpeGUNImI7_4wKlX1E5b-C9/s549/batman99.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="381" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7VJAii0-FetXHy0r3UcE3pqdXnFH-sAs94rrwNSbl_tKvKb2jdsc8FSzvzfn3rjcrp-zuGLyKgUWg8uZ5eAQM19uJ2lgDnQY4Zxu_gK6lmRahq3gMVUDRtWgiNSkCOmCzvqu61E7UMnM-wqxnL17NlDvDy262ySm1cR6CUcpeGUNImI7_4wKlX1E5b-C9/w187-h269/batman99.jpg" width="187" /></a></div><br />One of the recurring themes in this space has been the growing difficulty of ascertaining truth when there are so many countercurrents. Another has been our improving awareness of neurobiological determinism and how embedded evolutionary traits drive whole societies toward bad decisions, bad public policies, and cascadingly disastrous outcomes.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="5a9c">I was 9 years old when I first came upon The Penguin in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://dc.fandom.com/wiki/Batman_Vol_1_99" href="https://dc.fandom.com/wiki/Batman_Vol_1_99" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Batman #99</a> (April 1956; ten cents). The Penguin was turning in other criminals for reward money and then busting them out of jail to join his gang. Batman and Robin ended the operation, rounding up the gang, but Cobblepot relocated to Florida where he set up a legal gambling operation. He allowed patrons to win big and then his henchmen would follow them home and rob them. In a sequel comic, the Dynamic Duo foiled the Penguin’s scheme but the Penguin eluded capture.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h4" name="67a4" style="text-align: left;"><i>Does this sound familiar?</i></h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="487b"><b><span class="graf-dropCap">In</span></b><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> one of his more ruthless schemes,</b> Cobblepot set himself up as an underworld adviser, planning fool-proof crimes for other criminals. The Penguin would then murder the crooks and take their stolen loot. In another scheme, he would freeze wealthy individuals and then demand large sums of money to thaw them out alive.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="361b"></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-2H7AbX93qLnqLyWwlAJRKTSFpgUVdfM5RPnjNKXOLDxPwBhJuEBAls3wnaj4V0QNAvAqu3kF97YrrHZSri8zCSEosV5Gyw_mGhNykqNaYfWwAE8SLADHJNYxiZk0l9BeGxU_bmLnF7u8UJR2JFiEo6nnEcKyAKuxEXZHCSZJJmky588jB26OZX0Ij4mi/s497/Oswald_Cobblepot_takesjewels.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="497" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-2H7AbX93qLnqLyWwlAJRKTSFpgUVdfM5RPnjNKXOLDxPwBhJuEBAls3wnaj4V0QNAvAqu3kF97YrrHZSri8zCSEosV5Gyw_mGhNykqNaYfWwAE8SLADHJNYxiZk0l9BeGxU_bmLnF7u8UJR2JFiEo6nnEcKyAKuxEXZHCSZJJmky588jB26OZX0Ij4mi/w200-h176/Oswald_Cobblepot_takesjewels.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><figure class="graf graf--figure" name="b512"><figcaption class="imageCaption"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Fleecing wealthy donors</span></i></figcaption></figure></td></tr></tbody></table>Cobblepot overheard that he wasn’t among the greatest Batman villains because of the modus operandi for his crimes. Furious, he began using a series of gimmicked guns, umbrellas and fishing poles. He attempted to rob three eccentric millionaires but Batman and Robin captured him by opening up a fake front umbrella repair shop.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="3b68">The Penguin was a psychopathic narcissist. That is how Batman kept catching and jailing him. At one point the Penguin intended to go straight, but he was infuriated by a cartoon that mocked penguins so he launched a new crime spree. He couldn’t help himself. When the Joker and Catwoman began dominating the headlines, the Penguin committed another series of spectacular crimes in order to overshadow them.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="13ec">Taking the son of one of his fellow crooks under his wing, the Penguin attempted to teach the boy all about crime. The boy instead wrote a book detailing the Penguin’s crimes. The Penguin liked the idea so much that he stole the book to get it published.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="13ec"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTx1nZo1AJtf5Q3cIPeTIuCiiEg4uyBKFDHAfpTWorfgO0p_VVvosasXPckqdVQkxicA3rkIA8SOrjKovLT7k7nhgt_WrNC0BSXks1vnE9pFkAo7cvuh-Kt5t0nEF6W7Y5RBmC6YVndzC3qWNcnvqKQ7icvPx0nFk4w-XMiq35jKCxPgIsTze-11ckU1S_/s1149/PenguinThreeePanel.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="1149" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTx1nZo1AJtf5Q3cIPeTIuCiiEg4uyBKFDHAfpTWorfgO0p_VVvosasXPckqdVQkxicA3rkIA8SOrjKovLT7k7nhgt_WrNC0BSXks1vnE9pFkAo7cvuh-Kt5t0nEF6W7Y5RBmC6YVndzC3qWNcnvqKQ7icvPx0nFk4w-XMiq35jKCxPgIsTze-11ckU1S_/w640-h216/PenguinThreeePanel.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="13ec"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQmWhrOL_7YSvfMk0k5OMe5IEXktaeViAv9LJ-Hd8udrgOUo-kORPJQtHetCo49d78f-UT70kvlSbDHK9hP7z7vHJToweJHaGaU98DbpcJMyyqXmXpllso-yAanjao_ba7Y11c15jzEMUul3e3h-QiBzveNoeltIMq_jpb0pON-UiSSCyoUMMlYWq1dhJD/s865/ErgoronWordBattle.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="865" data-original-width="811" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQmWhrOL_7YSvfMk0k5OMe5IEXktaeViAv9LJ-Hd8udrgOUo-kORPJQtHetCo49d78f-UT70kvlSbDHK9hP7z7vHJToweJHaGaU98DbpcJMyyqXmXpllso-yAanjao_ba7Y11c15jzEMUul3e3h-QiBzveNoeltIMq_jpb0pON-UiSSCyoUMMlYWq1dhJD/s320/ErgoronWordBattle.jpg" width="300" /></a></div>In one comic, the Penguin opened a seemingly legit business, a restaurant called the Penguin’s Nest. Secretly, he copied signatures belonging to his wealthiest patrons so that he could get a forger in prison to write checks in their name. This time Batman put Penguin in jail for fraud.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1ea2">In another scheme, Cobblepot set up his own bird shop, selling birds to prominent people around Gotham City. The cages had bombs that allowed the Penguin to blast his way into the houses and rob them. Another time he pretended to become a legitimate business by using clever mechanical frauds of mythical birds and passing them off as the real deal and charging people admission. In another scheme, the Penguin extorts singers by using gas ejected from microphones to ruin their singing voices if they refuse to pay.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8536">This is a recurrent theme with Penguin. He ingratiates himself to wealthy donors then exploits them mercilessly, giving them zero to negative value back for their investment in him. In real life, being a bait-and-switch fraudster was not only how Trump rose to power in the Manhattan Real Estate market, but also how Vivek Ramaswamy made his millions. </p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8536"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMTxDCOzJ799oH7sm7MJ0uXeDVxzZPPPF-P5g6tNm2C1ER3xnLQhpsJ9fwZDrqqXlHFiIrw5KpRXBHlzJ4yHCNUhum9D1N2CG9B0ICF31Wk7Yo_9BauNm0iDkwyzM3uWJxnzhPlCd8CyUOHQs8yrsT3xFrH8JI1r1ZD6f7WqsJQ_W5A-5h7ofg51O_tEdc/s686/Mar-A-Lago_caught.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="631" data-original-width="686" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMTxDCOzJ799oH7sm7MJ0uXeDVxzZPPPF-P5g6tNm2C1ER3xnLQhpsJ9fwZDrqqXlHFiIrw5KpRXBHlzJ4yHCNUhum9D1N2CG9B0ICF31Wk7Yo_9BauNm0iDkwyzM3uWJxnzhPlCd8CyUOHQs8yrsT3xFrH8JI1r1ZD6f7WqsJQ_W5A-5h7ofg51O_tEdc/w400-h368/Mar-A-Lago_caught.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Ramaswamy’s ROIvant Sciences, incorporated in Bermuda to avoid taxes, bought up patents and took those products to market. He spent $5 million to buy an anti-Alzheimer drug which pumped up his net worth $3 billion before the trial results showed it was worthless. Among those Ramaswamy bilked was the California State Teachers’ Retirement System pension fund. Even though his company was never profitable, Ramaswamy walked away with hundreds of millions to run for president. Maybe he’s The Joker.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8536">It never ceases to amaze me at how easily USAnians—some of whom I consider quite smart, like James Howard Kunstler, author of <i>A Geography of Nowhere</i> and the<i> World Made by Hand</i> series—can be so easily taken in by a snake oil salesman.<br /></p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="9088"><i class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxzFm49YrkXWeEEHt1zVUrtdvA1q2t9PT_w2YGXpPA02HGzgo5027H-WjDHSHJ3K5h-7_6eSoCYYYv8s9an9PIw2uepJJnjDYmSzY7ypkGDBaMbyWsJ3GfYMR6UG4dri_y0CXerQgD5Ng2aF346-IOb4bxkPCcCP1OUMLh33PPfClYZcJW6ZZG1UblcblN/s1084/eagle-trump.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1084" data-original-width="750" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxzFm49YrkXWeEEHt1zVUrtdvA1q2t9PT_w2YGXpPA02HGzgo5027H-WjDHSHJ3K5h-7_6eSoCYYYv8s9an9PIw2uepJJnjDYmSzY7ypkGDBaMbyWsJ3GfYMR6UG4dri_y0CXerQgD5Ng2aF346-IOb4bxkPCcCP1OUMLh33PPfClYZcJW6ZZG1UblcblN/s320/eagle-trump.jpg" width="221" /></a></div>You are probably desperate to understand why this is happening — how, for instance, a blatantly corrupt and ignorant attorney general in New York State can get away with bringing a politically motivated nonsense case against the leading presidential candidate in a courtroom ruled by a judge who acts like a jester in a Shakespeare play. New York AG Letitia James gets away with it because the flagship organ of the thinking class, The New York Times, is in on the gambit. But why? We struggle to sort this out. One explanation is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has infiltrated the management of our country at every level so as to eventually conquer our territory for its resources while eliminating or enslaving the population. Surely, the CCP has made significant inroads, starting with the successful bribery and compromise of “Joe Biden,” and probably other elected officials, too, in placing many CCP agents in the vast array of university research departments, NGOs, PACs, and lobbying gangs, and extending to the purchase of vital businesses and farmland to prepare the gameboard for eventual takeover.</i></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="147e" style="text-align: right;">— James Howard Kunstler, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/light-in-the-darkness/" href="https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/light-in-the-darkness/" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Clusterfuck Nation</i></a></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8055"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVRMp8idy7MmDIMQIUKOy_TagVLUEwjPAFyyTWUrCYBs4r5jL8GA-GT4AkJqOqRP8wtxngpdt2eDDcqrQT4GUmiNUc5uJbbr5ng6OBejjaRKGIwESLeqwznL-kiKiaMP18nCLKIrqai0XRXUrvvLcAwzWlTzGbO9zF44sc1RqbV-4RALKUWcSj9DhIwNxR/s1086/Penguin'BirdBrainGang.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="745" data-original-width="1086" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVRMp8idy7MmDIMQIUKOy_TagVLUEwjPAFyyTWUrCYBs4r5jL8GA-GT4AkJqOqRP8wtxngpdt2eDDcqrQT4GUmiNUc5uJbbr5ng6OBejjaRKGIwESLeqwznL-kiKiaMP18nCLKIrqai0XRXUrvvLcAwzWlTzGbO9zF44sc1RqbV-4RALKUWcSj9DhIwNxR/w400-h275/Penguin'BirdBrainGang.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>One theme in the DC comics that we have yet to see mimicked in real life is that the Penguin is constantly caught and jailed, but equally often gets released or breaks out, such as by using mechanical wings made in the prison shop, and then sets out to enact new crimes he schemed up while in jail. His supporters flock to his side.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="8b5f"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>O</b></span><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">pening his own umbrella company</b> called Penguin Umbrellas Inc, he even fooled Batman into thinking he’s reformed to the point where Batman endorsed his product. It was all a complex scheme to rob the people of Gotham City after which he fled to the Oasis Beach Island, where he attempted another umbrella-related scheme.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="de44"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0zEn8OIUkO4IzHguxfEXUw_iJNXSSc6Y3DdF-nim3if1S3pI1TU-uxTDW3j5v0MCoM_MprzcMbpRxImSyRaRJaYdVL-aLcm7SRGxYLrVIHjdKwId47leIakXFnP4cTYkiu5E9fE5Et89YaU8_qQKRabOR15zbIVbPA_vy1lw05bZIiN6L9tAzPF24Qza0/s648/March2Capitol.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="380" data-original-width="648" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0zEn8OIUkO4IzHguxfEXUw_iJNXSSc6Y3DdF-nim3if1S3pI1TU-uxTDW3j5v0MCoM_MprzcMbpRxImSyRaRJaYdVL-aLcm7SRGxYLrVIHjdKwId47leIakXFnP4cTYkiu5E9fE5Et89YaU8_qQKRabOR15zbIVbPA_vy1lw05bZIiN6L9tAzPF24Qza0/w400-h235/March2Capitol.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>One question that seems never to be answered is how Cobblepot so successfully got minions of henchmen to do his evil work for him. The same might be asked about Donald Trump or Vivek Ramaswamy and their bankers. Given what obvious narcissistic grifters and con men these fellows are, one wonders how anyone could be so gullible as to be deceived, and yet 70 million people voted Donald Trump to be President of the United States.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="aaf9">And then 1.4 million of them died (disproportionately Republicans) from the bungled Covid response during Trump’s fourth year in office. His support, according to most polls, has not waned.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="aaf9"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4WHG_pJPhi6-Kt_-0gDpin3xJWEly5UNoooLlOLMjbj0UxA9cvDSTuN12BxNKryU69Co6w-bC-FsfK_TvBfnfM7vkyTiw7LylsEFcZ_1T1dOwjrBHOl9nBPn8-b1gVHjErrisgO_maPSPwOCs-X688LG97ETeCOR3udZgcjZOyiScTSdf23_G-hdNdpJi/s2476/TrumpCovidGraphs.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1074" data-original-width="2476" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4WHG_pJPhi6-Kt_-0gDpin3xJWEly5UNoooLlOLMjbj0UxA9cvDSTuN12BxNKryU69Co6w-bC-FsfK_TvBfnfM7vkyTiw7LylsEFcZ_1T1dOwjrBHOl9nBPn8-b1gVHjErrisgO_maPSPwOCs-X688LG97ETeCOR3udZgcjZOyiScTSdf23_G-hdNdpJi/w640-h278/TrumpCovidGraphs.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><section class="section section--body" name="4818"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: center;"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><blockquote><blockquote>Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share it.</blockquote></blockquote></i></span></div></div></section><section class="section section--body" name="0ca2"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><p class="graf graf--p" name="feb6"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwLeYDKmJLQwpsvZ0tV_Y0SwYR9DERvcLKDEHky0ctcksSM-R6Ve02q2LXVkYzim0YiGc0c8O2r8KgNmLI0pY3vuQZtmYzSqP7z64D54dmccwDq7cn5Nqt3g3QZxmbLxUdAu_XXwNpmk0uVel3IeM8FNykcoDdmNixRVk3fLoBev4pqD-zDaKF64h-OCTs/s902/Cobblepot_minionrevolt.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="902" height="554" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwLeYDKmJLQwpsvZ0tV_Y0SwYR9DERvcLKDEHky0ctcksSM-R6Ve02q2LXVkYzim0YiGc0c8O2r8KgNmLI0pY3vuQZtmYzSqP7z64D54dmccwDq7cn5Nqt3g3QZxmbLxUdAu_XXwNpmk0uVel3IeM8FNykcoDdmNixRVk3fLoBev4pqD-zDaKF64h-OCTs/w640-h554/Cobblepot_minionrevolt.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="feb6"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMcSNY35i7R5ra1BKrmxgp1Tt5mCUMnEBiebmJFEGbIE6iHYuTgEpBCZdEpr7ARiEzsCV1edtmks1L8gIuxOobYg5xk0X1oghFPzvXJCntBvGGiLILaH6PMTyX9tXMN0d0PcWIyteJ57Qyaxr02JH78_OS5LFvqvnXTMsvZRNSM__MKU1NpAxcdwgkeYL-/s400/TrumpTwoFace.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="400" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMcSNY35i7R5ra1BKrmxgp1Tt5mCUMnEBiebmJFEGbIE6iHYuTgEpBCZdEpr7ARiEzsCV1edtmks1L8gIuxOobYg5xk0X1oghFPzvXJCntBvGGiLILaH6PMTyX9tXMN0d0PcWIyteJ57Qyaxr02JH78_OS5LFvqvnXTMsvZRNSM__MKU1NpAxcdwgkeYL-/s320/TrumpTwoFace.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Elon Musk is frank about how influential on his life’s trajectory <i class="markup--em markup--p-em">The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy</i> was when he was a youth in South Africa. Could it be that Trump as a child embraced Batman’s avian nemesis?<p></p></div></div></section><p class="graf graf--p" name="7010">Perhaps he figures that despite 91 counts of criminal conduct and a succession of civil cases that will take away his fortune and possibly kick him out of both the Mar A Lago and Bedminster clubs, he will eventually escape and start anew.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="bdeb">After all, the Penguin always did.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="bdeb"> </p><p class="graf graf--p" name="bdeb"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7wDzDp1-7X3lE5-L1UrXCZEYpItqPQ4Ebaap2EwY9xUZ7PQHF_qRrqO4QXrnUKJ-iURQs9huJKFUwMG9-kC8zwAyxpQld3MRlNZnhGwZIAgevN_Vt2P5tB7erB0rwaTvhoR6s5YXKxF5ePf-bH_GN8oKnCYGpoWjcmGNoElXbwDkh2AX00CG7apOzEM10/s842/trumpdoonesbury.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="842" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7wDzDp1-7X3lE5-L1UrXCZEYpItqPQ4Ebaap2EwY9xUZ7PQHF_qRrqO4QXrnUKJ-iURQs9huJKFUwMG9-kC8zwAyxpQld3MRlNZnhGwZIAgevN_Vt2P5tB7erB0rwaTvhoR6s5YXKxF5ePf-bH_GN8oKnCYGpoWjcmGNoElXbwDkh2AX00CG7apOzEM10/w400-h263/trumpdoonesbury.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /> <br /><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="bdeb" style="text-align: center;"> * * * </p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL0hr4N9YdWzhuTcaHsRxngYfC1MA3w6_rL-vi1RBAGoeHtlVY6hwaWNmtdkJMlyI9MO63AedWl3OL1tzsvHz_S2SE8z8ZOs9SF40BJmedEWv6IJl-VSG6VFebvd1O-WVEC2YbkLtBCHmGHl2WkpSPXFrwLvbUy_0wiPDLqvvhMOiv8aBlkX07jO0vA5Z6/s1606/kidsingaza.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1606" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL0hr4N9YdWzhuTcaHsRxngYfC1MA3w6_rL-vi1RBAGoeHtlVY6hwaWNmtdkJMlyI9MO63AedWl3OL1tzsvHz_S2SE8z8ZOs9SF40BJmedEWv6IJl-VSG6VFebvd1O-WVEC2YbkLtBCHmGHl2WkpSPXFrwLvbUy_0wiPDLqvvhMOiv8aBlkX07jO0vA5Z6/w640-h356/kidsingaza.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><br /></b></span><p></p><p class="graf graf--p"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Meanwhile let’s end these wars.</b></span> I continue to solicit help to settle Ukrainian refugees into ecovillages and permaculture farms. Please donate to the Green Road by going to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="noopener" target="_blank">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a> or by directing donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more info on the Global Village Institute website or you can listen to this <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NPR Podcast</a> and read these recent articles in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Mother Jones</a> and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The World</a>. Thank you for your help.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="dde5">To support peace in the Middle East please contribute <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/marda-farm" href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/marda-farm" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a> and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="bdeb"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdCwpsMKWvQpuD1tLs7nzCtrabIdyY6GCYmczN-OEl2tqpQGT_vXK9qBpZrYECROz7JjzZIaSuOpZtGMaLDjezDMtN8GSUFf2Tk66vSasCaapL4f5s1g2EXKBolScFpPtv7ZHYewh_gepV6GIMfB9UI0c-eusKH8eL80JUV4LteRKmDuAZB4poAbGf_J_5/s936/mardafunder.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="936" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdCwpsMKWvQpuD1tLs7nzCtrabIdyY6GCYmczN-OEl2tqpQGT_vXK9qBpZrYECROz7JjzZIaSuOpZtGMaLDjezDMtN8GSUFf2Tk66vSasCaapL4f5s1g2EXKBolScFpPtv7ZHYewh_gepV6GIMfB9UI0c-eusKH8eL80JUV4LteRKmDuAZB4poAbGf_J_5/w640-h434/mardafunder.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="de44"></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="009b">Recent weather events in the UAE and Saudi Arabia should have been enough to focus the attention of delegates going to COP28 in Dubai. Will that be enough? Not even close. But we have the needed tools to fix this. We’ve had them for centuries. It is well past the time we used them. That’s why I write. That is why you support me. Thanks!</p><section class="section section--body" name="6571"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content" style="text-align: center;"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><p class="graf graf--p" name="1a59"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">All Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity.</i></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="afa3"><b class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">Thank you for reading The Great Change.</i></b></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="cc79">And thanks once more for your support of the Global Village Institute. Please feel free to share this post, or any part of it.</p></div></div></section><section class="section section--body" name="5bf1"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="d174"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>The Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</i></span> <br /></blockquote></div></div></section></div></div></section><p>
</p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-29038113964770993792023-11-19T05:30:00.001-06:002023-11-19T05:30:00.137-06:00Striving for Expansion<p><a href="">"</a><i>Survival within a niche is less about the will to power and more about taming entropy.</i><a href="">"</a></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4cd8"><em class="nc">Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world<br />Like a Colossus, and we petty men<br />Walk under his huge legs and peep about…<br />The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars,<br />But in ourselves.</em></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="198b">— Julius Caesar, Act 1, Scene 2</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj nd" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="7554"><span class="l ne nf ng bn nh ni nj nk nl ef"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj10VIlocjowhT3rSCSV8esn0Lj3jgLsIjRdkQ99-0Sizll43meI8FPW8GvgyY2ancHGWHhmbz-S7SF8yLaipH9_-2za5i_BD58tDfveeA4VR5wi6hQUzzfP8c-Fyuml2Bj00TYnPoYsu1ZZERBUKstshg41mDu7D2nlb60ph_NiH3xtxSq0sfhZ7lK9s1i/s1000/oiltemplemayaplumedjaguar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="519" data-original-width="1000" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj10VIlocjowhT3rSCSV8esn0Lj3jgLsIjRdkQ99-0Sizll43meI8FPW8GvgyY2ancHGWHhmbz-S7SF8yLaipH9_-2za5i_BD58tDfveeA4VR5wi6hQUzzfP8c-Fyuml2Bj00TYnPoYsu1ZZERBUKstshg41mDu7D2nlb60ph_NiH3xtxSq0sfhZ7lK9s1i/w400-h208/oiltemplemayaplumedjaguar.jpg" width="400" /></a></b></div><b>T</b><strong class="mi go">here is a tendency to look towards artificial intelligence</strong>
— and particularly Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), not just
ChatBots — as some kind of savior that will yank us out of our
omnidirectional existential crisis and pull us back from the brink of
human extinction. This logic, or deep-seated fantasy, flows neatly from
the historical themes of Abrahamic desert religions that guide so much
of Western popular culture, from action films to sporting events to
current politics. But saviors are implausible, if not impossible, and
AGI is no different.<p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2b3b">Earlier
this year the elderly gent who coined the term, EROIE (energy return on
invested energy) and later inaugurated the scientific discipline of
biophysical economics, the venerable 80-year-old Charles A.S. Hall,
coauthored a paper in the <em class="nc">Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society</em> (I read it for the Sunday funnies) entitled, “Maximum power in evolution, ecology and economics.”</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ec4a">Hall’s
paper recounted the progression of science’s understanding of the role
of energy in biological and physical systems from Darwin’s finches to
the formation of galaxies. The essay reminded us that the human species,
like every other organizational unit in the universe, is governed by a
drive to acquire power. The nineteenth-century German philosopher
Friedrich Nietzsche called this drive, <em class="nc">“Streben nach Entfaltung”</em>
(striving for expansion). As Hall relates, later biophysicists like
Boltzmann, Lotka, Odum and Pinkerton would show how survival within a
niche is less about the will to power and more about the taming of
entropy — reducing the dissipation of captured energy. Lotka, in 1922,
said that organisms that capture and use energy more rapidly and
effectively have a selective advantage but in the context of ecosystems,
the maximum is not always the optimum — there is a sweet spot where
diminishing loss is more important than increasing gain. Hall uses the
example of bicycle gears.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="fde8">When
he was merely a spry 70, Hall demonstrated this principle by scaling
the Luquillo Mountains in Puerto Rico. Gross photosynthesis in the
tropics is at maximum at sea level, but respiration is also at maximum
due to the temperature. At higher elevations, evaporation clouds block
the sun more often. At mid-elevation (~800m in the Luquillo) a balance
of photosynthesis and respiration optimizes forest production (and also
carbon uptake). The same, Hall said, is true for intermediate latitudes —
the mid-ranges between Equator and poles.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="dbf6">One
might think that your and my innate maximum power drive propels the
expansion of AI because humans, like all life-forms, are consumed by a
need to optimize power. Every year or two I am compelled to upgrade my
phone and laptop so that I can access faster silicon chips and other
features that I know will speed up my work and thereby, it is assumed,
better my life. Consumerism is just another side of the animal (or
plant) drive to expand population and habitat.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6c0d">Ask
Elon Musk why he is so insistent about getting colonies on Mars and he
probably can’t tell you, other than some cliches about manifest destiny
or having read <em class="nc">The Hitchhikers Guide</em> as a child. Insofar as AI can optimize conditions for expansion — <a class="af nm" href="https://civilizationemerging.com/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Daniel Schmactenberger</a>
gives the example of depleted mines that can be brought back into
production by AI efficiency computations — one could imagine AI
continuing to exponentially empower the homo colossus consumerist
superorganism, but one would be wrong. Dissipative forces — entropy —
are also accelerated, likely over and above the more visible production
gains. Thus the flux, as Lotka termed it, that optimizes at the moderate
mid-range becomes more important than maximum power acquisition. The
central highlands are more productive — and sustainable — than the cloud
forest summits or the fertile plains. The leader who provides for the
real needs of his subjects rather than giving them mere military
expansion and its multifarious unseen costs is, in the end, more revered
by his people. Once AI grasps these principles, it closes mines and
plugs fossil drill holes. That kind of saving grace could make AGI a
kind of graceful savior after all.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="d3b0">Here
in the Mayan world — I am in the Yum Balam nature reserve along the
coast of the Yucatán Strait 247 km (153 mi) from Cuba — this natural
balance between seeking power and minimizing entropy is evident daily.
It has been going on for the two-legged inhabitants since they first
arrived and, although presently masked by a thin veneer of entropic
consumer culture, persists in <a class="af nm" href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-gift-of-maya.html" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">the forest gardens that surround most rural homes</a>
and in the languages and cultural idioms still practiced since before
Mr. Cortez rudely took over. These people may have been conquered,
enslaved, and occupied, but they were never vanquished. Maya is still
the first language in most households and there are numerous regional
dialects.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="df92">One
should ask why this forest today is among the world’s most biodiverse
places after being continuously occupied, often at high densities for
centuries at a time, for more than a dozen millennia. Yes, Lotka’s flux
has something to do with that. It is at a northern mid-tropical
latitude, neither equatorial nor temperate. Elevation ranges from sea
level to 4200 meters (the Tajumulco volcano in Guatemala). Exploiting
the balance between solar energy gain and dissipation is expected.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5a3a">The
traditional soil rejuvenating practices of the occupants helps. They
have been practicing forest garden milpa — careful species stewarding,
judicious use of fire, long rotations and selective patch clearing — for
at least 8000 years, with soil fertility enhanced by each cycle of
cultivation and reforestation. Chinampas — integrated nutrient
recycling, aquaculture and freshwater retention — came into use perhaps
4000 years ago and systematic biochar creation and application arrived
from farther south in the Archaic Maya period.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6812">These
practices stood the Maya well through intermittent climate changes. One
such duress was the Medieval Warm Period from about 900 until 1300 CE
which preceded the Little Ice Age in Europe. While the MWP was good for
Viking expansion, it was devastating in the Yucatán. Monumental Mayan
cities were abandoned to drought. Ruling dynasties fell.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="cce6">But
it was not all bad. Agronomically, re-ruralization prevented widespread
famine and disease as ever-reliable milpa systems followed temperature
and precipitation shifts to higher elevations. Evidence from lake
sediment cores suggests frequent and lengthy droughts in the lowlands
but good water management practices, tapping underground rivers through
cenotes, constructing extensive cisterna wells to store rain in season,
and focusing on less water-intensive species of agricultural crops (from
a pallet of more than 60 annual cultivars and hundreds of perennials)
minimized the stress of extreme climate drying for the majority of the
population. They migrated and successfully relocalized. You can do that
when there are not 8 or 9 billion of you.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="823b">Climate
change was not the only contributing factor to the “collapse” of the
great city-states of the Classic Maya. Much too high population
densities (urbanization) had forced the culture to move beyond the
highly productive and regenerative systems that had grown them (Lotka’s
flux) and adopt highly entropic and soil-degrading practices like
monocropped maize on urban terraces. Forsaking a harmony of energy
maximization and dissipation, they leaned into maximum power <em class="nc">“Streben nach Entfaltung”</em>
and paid the ultimate price. When the Spanish arrived with their
Damascus steel and Andalusian war horses borne of a separate climate
migration experience (the Moorish expansion until 1492), the overly
entropic lowland Maya were easy pickings. Abandoned cities vanished into
the jungle.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="933a">Ruddiman,
Dull, Nevle and others have argued that the re-growth of neotropical
forests following the Columbian encounter led to terrestrial biospheric
carbon sequestration on the order of 2 to 5 GtC, contributing to the
well-documented decrease in atmospheric C recorded in Antarctic ice
cores from about 1500 through 1750 CE. When European disease and slavery
swept the Americas so much forest was released — much of it with
millennial build-ups of latent soil fertility — that atmospheric CO2
plummeted and <a class="af nm" href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2011/01/cancun-butterfly.html" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Europe literally froze</a>.
The Swedes invaded Denmark over frozen ocean, Louis XIV put parquet
floors into the palace at Versailles, and Hans Brinker won his silver
skates on the Dutch canals.</p><blockquote class="nn"><p class="no np gn be nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nb dw" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f561"><i>Dr. Dull gives us hard numbers for what Charles Mann has tried to get across to us in <strong class="al">1491, </strong>that we don’t give mankind nearly enough credit for creating our biosphere. Just as Michael Pollan’s <strong class="al">Botany of Desire</strong>
showed us how plants have manipulated us to spread them around the
globe, the message of man’s mutuality with nature is more than seeping
into the data everywhere.</i></p><p class="no np gn be nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nb dw" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="112e"><i>— Erich J. Knight (1955–2018)</i></p></blockquote><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh nx mk ml hk ny mn mo mp nz mr ms mt oa mv mw mx ob mz na nb fo bj nd" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f32a"><span class="l ne nf ng bn nh ni nj nk nl ef"><b>F</b></span><strong class="mi go">rom charcoal in lake bed studies</strong>
we can see that increased biomass burning and deforestation during
agricultural and population expansion in the Yucatán from 2500 years ago
corresponded with atmospheric carbon loading and global warming 1100 to
650 years ago. The Maya changed the weather, just as did the Egyptians,
Ottomans, Mongols, Apaches and Nigerians. During the rise of the
Classic Maya, the Great White Cities witnessed by Orellana in the first
European transit of the continent, the vast palisade cities along the
Mississippi encountered by DeSoto, and at trade centers like Cahokia and
Teotihuacan, so much carbon was released from forest and field that the
atmosphere loaded and the northern hemisphere warmed. At the same time,
there was desertification in North Africa, driving the Moors into
Spain. Humans and climate are inextricably connected. They always have
been. Westerners just didn’t grok that.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6361">Life
created the conditions for life. Forest farming moderated Ice Ages.
Whaling wrecked Earth’s largest carbon sink. Genghis Khan’s Golden Hoard
cooled the planet. Urbanization of the Levant in the 20th Century
warmed it. Quantum entanglement is everywhere, all at once.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="cb55">Besides
demonstrating a human-Gaian umbilical far more reciprocating than
imagined, what paleoclimate anthropology showed us was that the
potential exists to return to pre-Anthropocene concentrations of
atmospheric C by reforestation and terrestrial carbon loading, assuming
we can overcome Jevon’s Paradox and our own dumb political inertia (made
worse when AI is coupled to social media).</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="7ac8">Despite
the ubiquity of smartphones, ancient wisdom seems not to have been
entirely lost among the enclaves deep in the lowland forest today, where
knowledgable curation of desirable species alters the forest
composition to favor plants valued in Maya culture — those known to
sustain life in even the worst conditions and to create a
self-regenerating, cultivated ecology, or permaculture. Over time, this
ever-shifting, diverse, mosaic patch landscape accrues biodiversity
wealth, endowing it with staying power. It resists climate shifts and
other insults, human and geomorphic. Maybe “resists” is the wrong word.
It bends, like coconut palms in a hurricane, and abides.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="d553">If
you go to Acapulco a year from now, I suspect what you will see is a
lot of beachfront high-rise hotels being either torn down or extensively
remodeled. What most may not notice is that the coconut trees have
fully recovered and gone back to dropping their nutritious fruit onto
the beach.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="77dc">The
Mayan handwoven landscapes I see around me here in the preserve offer
hope in troubled times. There is much to be learned from them. Only a
fraction of the ancient designers’ wisdom has been rediscovered. In my
small <em class="nc">terrano</em>, I have planted more than 60
traditional forest food and medicinal plants. After I have written this,
I will have a chaya/moringa omelet with cacao, turmeric and chili
spices, tortillas, local coffee and fresh fruit juice for my breakfast.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="9576">Even
if (or when) Greenland melts, the AMOC tide ceases to convey warmth to
the Maritime provinces and Northern Europe, and sea level rise claims
the Mayan Riviera near here, principles of optimal energy balance will
not be denied. Those who learn to go with the flow can still thrive, and
the daily carbon harvesting rituals that are part of that routine —
biochar, chinampas, agroforestry — will be what recovers a habitable
climate, eventually, for our descendants.</p><blockquote class="nn"><p class="no np gn be nq nr ns nt nu nv nw nb dw" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="36ef"><i>Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share it.</i></p></blockquote><div class="ab ca oc od oe of" role="separator"><span class="og bx bl oh oi oj"></span><span class="og bx bl oh oi oj"></span><span class="og bx bl oh oi"></span></div><div class="fo fp fq fr fs"><div class="ab ca"><div class="ch bg fa fb fc fd"><h2 class="ok ol gn be om on oo op oq or os ot ou mp ov ow ox mt oy oz pa mx pb pc pd pe bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3eea">References:</h2><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh pf mk ml hk pg mn mo mp ph mr ms mt pi mv mw mx pj mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="a961">Dull,
Robert A. , Nevle, Richard J. , Woods, William I. , Bird, Dennis K. ,
Avnery, Shiri and Denevan, William M. ‘The Columbian Encounter and the
Little Ice Age: Abrupt Land Use Change, Fire, and Greenhouse Forcing’, <em class="nc">Annals of the Association of American Geographers,</em> 01 September 2010.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="98e8">Ford,
Anabel, and Ronald Nigh. “Climate change in the ancient Maya forest:
resilience and adaptive management across millennia.” <em class="nc">The Great Maya Droughts in Cultural Context: Case Studies in Resilience and Vulnerability </em>(2014): 87–106.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="0565">Hall CAS, McWhirter T. 2023 Maximum power in evolution, ecology and economics. <em class="nc">Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A</em> 381: 20220290. <a class="af nm" href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0290" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0290</a></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="19e8">Hall CAS. 2017 <em class="nc">Energy return of investment: a unifying principle for biology, economic, and sustainability. </em>Berlin, Germany: Springer.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="b38d">Lotka A. 1922 Natural selection as a physical principle. <em class="nc">Proc. Natl Acad. Sci.</em> 8, 151–154. (doi:10.1073/pnas.8.6.151).</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f7cb">Nietzsche F. 1886/1989 <em class="nc">Beyond Good and Evil [Jenseits von Gut und Böse. Vorspiel einer Philosophie der Zukunft]</em>. Translated by Walter Kaufmann. New York, NY: Vintage.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e395">Nigh, Ronald. 2008. “Trees, Fire and Farmers: Making Woods and Soil in the Maya Forest.” <em class="nc">Ethnobiology</em> 28 (2): 231–43. <a class="af nm" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2993/0278-0771-28.2.231." rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">http://dx.doi.org/10.2993/0278-0771-28.2.231.</a></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="a0bd">Odum HT, Odum EC. 2001 <em class="nc">A Prosperous Way Down.</em> Boulder: University Press of Colorado.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="9f9d">Odum HT. 1995 Self-organization and maximum empower. In <em class="nc">Maximum power: the ideas and applications of H. T. Odum </em>(ed. CAS Hall). Boulder, CO: University Press of Colorado.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1cfe">Tainter, Joseph A. 1988. <em class="nc">The Collapse of Complex Societies.</em> Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="52e6">Tainter, Joseph A. 2000. “Global Change, History, and Sustainability.” In <em class="nc">The Way the Wind Blows: Climate, History, and Human Action,</em> edited by Roderick J. McIntosh, Joseph A. Tainter, and Susan Keech McIntosh, 331–56. New York: Columbia University Press.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e3ac">Tainter, Joseph A. 2005. “Perspectives on Diamond’s Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.” <em class="nc">Current Anthropology</em> 46:S91–9.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5861">Schrödinger E. 1945 What an organism feeds upon is negative entropy In <em class="nc">What is life? The physical aspect of the living cell</em> (ed. E Schroedinger ). New York, NY: Macmillan.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="bc85">Whitmore,
Thomas J., Mark Brenner, Jason H. Curtis, Bruce H. Dahlin, and Barbara
W. Leyden. 1996. “Holocene Climatic and Human Influences on Lakes of the
Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: An Interdisciplinary, Palaeolimnological
Approach.” <em class="nc">Holocene</em> 6 (3): 273–87. <a class="af nm" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/095968369600600303." rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/095968369600600303.</a></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="66db">Willey, Gordon R. 1974. “The Classic Maya Hiatus: A Rehearsal for the Collapse?” In <em class="nc">Mesoamerican Archaeology: New Approaches,</em> edited by N. Hammond, 417–30. Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press.</p></div></div></div><div class="ab ca oc od oe of" role="separator"><span class="og bx bl oh oi oj"></span><span class="og bx bl oh oi oj"></span><span><a name='more'></a></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5viwJuVK9J42LoduL7L2ScH2pQjTWgkb7Vg_7NSWT_4iPTlODNUVhVQz9Smu3yecw8y0ebX2DG-2jxse62vu8h4DpM5mSHzjEEe6AQWTW8fl18B03ZBdnBzLBYUXXzKIqcw7jUxUZR16xYCf0YrMnG7sdsMoecfqib0Zgl8XE_WDxtkUZ3VazG_n17uHw/s720/redballoon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5viwJuVK9J42LoduL7L2ScH2pQjTWgkb7Vg_7NSWT_4iPTlODNUVhVQz9Smu3yecw8y0ebX2DG-2jxse62vu8h4DpM5mSHzjEEe6AQWTW8fl18B03ZBdnBzLBYUXXzKIqcw7jUxUZR16xYCf0YrMnG7sdsMoecfqib0Zgl8XE_WDxtkUZ3VazG_n17uHw/w400-h400/redballoon.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span class="og bx bl oh oi"><br /></span></div><div class="ab ca oc od oe of" role="separator"><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj nd" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="9e00"><span class="l ne nf ng bn nh ni nj nk nl ef"><b>M</b></span><strong class="mi go">eanwhile let’s end these wars.</strong>
I continue to solicit help to settle Ukrainian refugees into
ecovillages and permaculture farms. Please donate to the Green Road by
going to <a class="af nm" href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a>
or by directing donations to us at greenroad@thefarm.org. There is more
info on the Global Village Institute website or you can listen to this <a class="af nm" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">NPR Podcast</a> and read these recent articles in <a class="af nm" href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Mother Jones</a> and <a class="af nm" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">The World</a>. Thank you for your help.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e0cf">To support peace in the Middle East please contribute <a class="af nm" href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/marda-farm" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> and <a class="af nm" href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e0cf"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh248QZ6ylvCYr8-xROC8V-PkuNnHbV7i1tw8c7apAta_d2wHCUDIMrsFGk80kFCmvoPWMRfqsHQY58EnN302ssNCp6N3Yb_smxqTQaNBHntQoddZ7YMfvlEB8V1raAEYQds6w5SA14D_BK_fyYy-CSgJx_z9vHWiuCrz-_CyD-vlEQhO2IRKWcfChZnvfG/s936/mardafunder.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="936" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh248QZ6ylvCYr8-xROC8V-PkuNnHbV7i1tw8c7apAta_d2wHCUDIMrsFGk80kFCmvoPWMRfqsHQY58EnN302ssNCp6N3Yb_smxqTQaNBHntQoddZ7YMfvlEB8V1raAEYQds6w5SA14D_BK_fyYy-CSgJx_z9vHWiuCrz-_CyD-vlEQhO2IRKWcfChZnvfG/w400-h271/mardafunder.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="11d3">If recent weather events have not been enough to focus your attention, World Resources Institute dropped its <a class="af nm" href="https://connect.wri.org/e/120942/-publication-utm-campaign-soca/59jyt7/1155035304/h/MK4fD03jcdHk03xgo4Kzcp2qJbWuB7GGGyDzLag_H04" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank"><em class="nc">State of Climate Action 2023</em></a> this month.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj nd" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f0d0"><span class="l ne nf ng bn nh ni nj nk nl ef"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaxl_LLDzxs3TtLdXQ3u5czJ6OI-L8lau6DBpg_BtYssoJYb18Zzq99n44lykLF47vxjqjxfY4tzBL5Yjhs7V2Dnme23oyq0kg5JhiZd4oUxgYttP35qWzej0bKrXO5DuYnrAOoSKkcHkegr5wkyQAOo2jPPEB7ZYLsEeeoSntuVv3CFo0XtF0QqyLXf-f/s640/GVI%20How%20much%20CO2%20to%20remove.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="640" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaxl_LLDzxs3TtLdXQ3u5czJ6OI-L8lau6DBpg_BtYssoJYb18Zzq99n44lykLF47vxjqjxfY4tzBL5Yjhs7V2Dnme23oyq0kg5JhiZd4oUxgYttP35qWzej0bKrXO5DuYnrAOoSKkcHkegr5wkyQAOo2jPPEB7ZYLsEeeoSntuVv3CFo0XtF0QqyLXf-f/s320/GVI%20How%20much%20CO2%20to%20remove.jpg" width="320" /></a></b></div><b>M</b><strong class="mi go">ain takeaways:</strong>
climate action progress isn’t happening at anywhere near the pace and
scale necessary to combat the problem. Only one of the report’s 42
indicators — the share of electric vehicles in passenger car sales — is
on track to reach its 2030 target. To get back on track for the other
targets, the world needs to:<p></p><ul class=""><li class="mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp pr mr ms mt ps mv mw mx pt mz na nb pu pv pw bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="9e27">Reduce the annual rate of deforestation 4 times faster.</li><li class="mg mh gn mi b hh px mk ml hk py mn mo mp pz mr ms mt qa mv mw mx qb mz na nb pu pv pw bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3cdf">Increase the coverage of rapid transit times faster.</li><li class="mg mh gn mi b hh px mk ml hk py mn mo mp pz mr ms mt qa mv mw mx qb mz na nb pu pv pw bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="c6be">Phase out coal in electricity generation 7 times faster.</li><li class="mg mh gn mi b hh px mk ml hk py mn mo mp pz mr ms mt qa mv mw mx qb mz na nb pu pv pw bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="879b">Lower consumption of beef, lamb and goat in high-consuming regions 8 times faster.</li><li class="mg mh gn mi b hh px mk ml hk py mn mo mp pz mr ms mt qa mv mw mx qb mz na nb pu pv pw bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="73a9">Defossilize cement production more than 10 times faster</li><li class="mg mh gn mi b hh px mk ml hk py mn mo mp pz mr ms mt qa mv mw mx qb mz na nb pu pv pw bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="7dfe">Raise investment ratios of renewable to fossil energy 10 times faster.</li></ul><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="c20f">A
handful of bright spots demonstrate rapid change is not only possible
but already taking off in some sectors and geographies. For example,
over a span of five years, Uruguay, Denmark and Lithuania have all grown
solar and wind at average annual rates higher than what’s needed
globally between 2022 and 2030; sales of heat pumps rose 38% in Europe
in the last year alone; and Indonesia restored more than 240,000
hectares of degraded peatlands in 2022. <br /></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="7386">We
can be sure the delegates going to COP28 in Dubai will hear a lot of
these good news stories. Will they be enough? Not even close. One of the
lessons we can apply from the Mayan experience is that at least one
ancient technology is hiding in plain sight. Biochar is generally
regarded as nascent rather than established, but it is the most
shovel-ready and scalable carbon removal technology today and 95% of all
removal deliveries in voluntary carbon markets. The US biochar market,
which at present is approximately 20% the size of the Chinese market and
50% of the size of the European market, has not merely the least cost
per ton of carbon removed, but negative cost (profit) when benefits to
soil, forest, the built environment, and rural economies are accounted
for.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e101">We
have the needed tools. We’ve had them for centuries. It is well past
time we used them. That’s why I write. That is why you support me.
Thanks!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2068"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGhzBJ97Hd4SFdOOQXCC9CdtFpzcY6wbXMIYe9wERkSze_BzfjbAc6J7Lpwky1Q29TCYfaJzvgNOzruZc2kzc7phqKzWLTN3jYJC4JC3YDxUGGxd2ZPL2c-fc_gqU4FaTVVw0EVrIisdFaTHef_uKh95iODE8Y4q-nIx7HGESrTrSFwWibovFSn8HJmBH5/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGhzBJ97Hd4SFdOOQXCC9CdtFpzcY6wbXMIYe9wERkSze_BzfjbAc6J7Lpwky1Q29TCYfaJzvgNOzruZc2kzc7phqKzWLTN3jYJC4JC3YDxUGGxd2ZPL2c-fc_gqU4FaTVVw0EVrIisdFaTHef_uKh95iODE8Y4q-nIx7HGESrTrSFwWibovFSn8HJmBH5/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></div><em class="nc">All
Patreon donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are
needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions
are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3)
charity.</em><p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="83d4"><strong class="mi go"><em class="nc">Thank you for reading The Great Change.</em></strong></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph mg mh gn mi b hh mj mk ml hk mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu mv mw mx my mz na nb fo bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="0973">And thanks once more for your support of the Global Village Institute. Please feel free to share this post, or any part of it.</p><span class="og bx bl oh oi"></span></div><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-24461803733704898632023-11-12T06:00:00.026-06:002023-11-12T06:00:00.134-06:00Giving Up The Gun<p><a href="">"</a><span style="font-weight: normal;"><i>What can we learn from societies that are less violent?</i></span><a href="">"</a></p><p class="graf graf--p"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"></strong></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaaD7ll0sMYD-_mgAIgu1zB1rJcaNTlemw1rLjvogrPLXtVK9rMzSlZhfN1mlgWPdNUYmwwnSiGzXZoNLTUbc9L3_gZzV7vjaLQghUyFsEv9lzgwQ_-BiBkhfdlbDMvrhB5tgStVuvH3AGNTx-UMBxBMfP7uUWBiGVjP44V5uTRousPle2QQOOpvxae61u/s1900/2oilWSStreereciprocity.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1441" data-original-width="1900" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaaD7ll0sMYD-_mgAIgu1zB1rJcaNTlemw1rLjvogrPLXtVK9rMzSlZhfN1mlgWPdNUYmwwnSiGzXZoNLTUbc9L3_gZzV7vjaLQghUyFsEv9lzgwQ_-BiBkhfdlbDMvrhB5tgStVuvH3AGNTx-UMBxBMfP7uUWBiGVjP44V5uTRousPle2QQOOpvxae61u/s320/2oilWSStreereciprocity.jpg" width="320" /></a></strong></div><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">You often hear, “Guns don’t kill, people kill.” </strong>After another mass shooting that killed 18 in Maine, the U.S. House Speaker (third in line to the President) declared “The problem is the human heart. It’s not guns” and, obligatorily, “This is not the time to be talking about legislation.” Last week we looked at the Edo Period in Japan, when an entire culture stepped away from guns for more than a century, choosing martial arts for blood feuds. Japan was no less violent, but death was much less random. In this week’s installment, we dig into the culture of violence.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="6ac3">Researchers analyzed state-level data on mass shootings from 1989 to 2014. They compared mass shootings in states with and without bans on military-style assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. They learned:</p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="ac30">States with bans on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines had a 56% lower rate of mass shootings compared to states without such bans;</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="5c8b">After controlling for other factors, the assault weapon ban was associated with a 35% reduction in the annual incidence of mass shootings;</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="9b90">Shootings involving semi-automatic rifles produce more casualties; the overall number of crimes committed with rifles of any kind is relatively low compared to handguns;</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="b883">The 1994 federal assault weapons ban was associated with a reduction in mass shooting deaths; and</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="5170">The expiration of the ban in 2004 saw more high-fatality mass shootings.</li></ul><p class="graf graf--p" name="c256">The FBI puts out an annual report on crime statistics in the U.S. The 2022 report provided these additional insights:</p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="d530">Most dangerous places for homicide: Washington D.C.; Mississippi; Louisiana; Alabama; New Mexico; South Carolina; Missouri.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="9cba">Least dangerous: Maine; Idaho; Massachusetts; Utah; Hawaii.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="2865">Texas had the most mass shooter incidents (six), followed by Arizona, Florida, Michigan.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="47c7">May had the highest number of active shooter incidents, with January and September tied for the least.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="d6a2">Active shooter incidents occurred on every day of the week, with Sunday having the most.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="6f22">They were more likely to occur between noon and midnight.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="9f0e">Based on location, 46% of mass shooting incidents occurred in open spaces, followed by 28% in commerce, 8% in education and residences, 4% in houses of worship and government, and 2% in health care.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="3ff9">Forty-seven shooters were male, one was female, one was nonbinary, and one was unidentified.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="9da9">They were between the ages of 15 and 70 years old.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="4a51">In 50 incidents, 61 firearms were used by shooters — 29 handguns, 26 rifles, three shotguns, and three unknown.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="ec85">Two incidents involved snipers.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="f3ae">Four shooters wore body armor.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="8d44">Twenty-nine shooters were apprehended by law enforcement, seven were killed by law enforcement, two were killed by armed citizens, nine committed suicide, and three remain at large.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="1c41">In 48% of the incidents, the shooter had a known connection to the location and/or at least one victim, whereas in 52% of incidents, there was no known connection.</li></ul><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="3d71">Is it Determined?</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="1365"><b><span class="graf-dropCap">It</span></b><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> is difficult to generalize. </strong>There are millions of guns in circulation, and violence has multiple causes. To stand back and see the big picture, one might start by reading neuroscientist Robert M. Sopolsky’s <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Determined: A Science of Life Without Free Will:</em></p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote graf--startsWithDoubleQuote" name="e32d"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">“Suppose you’re born a crack baby. In order to counterbalance this bad luck, does society rush in to ensure that you’ll be raised in relative affluence and with various therapies to overcome your neurodevelopmental problems? No, you are overwhelmingly likely to be born into poverty and stay there. Well then, says society, at least let’s make sure your mother is loving, is stable, has lots of free time to nurture you with books and museum visits. Yeah, right; as we know, your mother is likely to be drowning in the pathological consequences of her own miserable luck in life, with a good chance of leaving you neglected, abused, shuttled through foster homes. Well, does society at least mobilize then to counterbalance that additional bad luck, ensuring that you live in a safe neighborhood with excellent schools? Nope, your neighborhood is likely to be gang-riddled and your school underfunded.”</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="f2cb">Sapolsky asks more penetrating questions. Why is there a greater incidence of violence in the Southern states than in the Northern? Is it tree pollen, the gene pool, mosquitoes and chiggers, or is it mere coincidence? Sapolsky says all of the above, and more.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="2757"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">The link between weather clemency in childhood and adult personality can be framed biologically in the most informative way. The former influences the type of brain you are constructing and will carry into adulthood, as is almost always the case. For example, lots of childhood stress by way of glucocorticoids impairs the construction of the frontal cortex, producing an adult less adept at things like impulse control. Lots of exposure to testosterone early in life makes for the construction of a highly active amygdala, producing an adult more likely to respond to provocation.</em></blockquote><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="14a4"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">***</em></blockquote></div><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="f355"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">Murders in the South, which typically has the highest rates in the country, are not about stickups gone wrong in the city. They are about murdering someone who has seriously tarnished your honor by conspicuously badmouthing you, failing to repay a debt, coming on to your significant other — particularly if living in a rural area. As a great experimental example, stage things so that your male subject is insulted by someone. If they come from the South there is a huge increase in circulating cortisol and testosterone levels and an increased likelihood of a violent response to a hypothetical “honor violation.”</em></blockquote><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="49cd"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">Relative to uninsulted Southern subjects, Northerners, no such changes. Where does the Southern culture of honor come from? A widely accepted theory amongst historians makes this point perfectly. While the Colonial New England filled with Pilgrims and the Mid-Atlantic with mercantile folks like Quakers, the South was disproportionately peopled by wild-ass pastoralists from Northern England, Scotland and Ireland.</em></blockquote><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="783b"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">***</em></blockquote></div><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="7e03"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">What are some predictors of a society being tight? A history of lots of cultural crises — droughts, famines and earthquakes. And high rates of infectious diseases. The infectious disease link may help explain the finding that groups in the tropics tend towards more in-group/out-group differentiation than in regions farther from the equator. Temperate ecosystems make for cultures that are more temperate towards outsiders.</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="1329">Suppose one were to ask what were the social innovations that produce such low rates of gun violence in Iceland, Canada, and Denmark? These were, after all, descendants of herding cultures like the “wild-ass” Northern English, Highlanders and Irish.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="baff">It could be less a focus on high-caliber, rapid-fire weapons or background checks and more on the social nets that caught more of those crack babies early.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f083"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZUh58_hqlwOCWjHSpG-P_o5aEYCsnsW4SYQlK50SwIuLbw5HbHgCCtAzAVPfjCooa74FmpyuokVtjOmauj1tL1zxF4TIZTnglDzUEWX6LwMQTY_9jT1YTComhARUEzh-atEL6MX430xxBqeNgS2xBbun28v31otcYz3j7sy0neEe4_A8YXDpUcHqg8WjP/s2470/Trumptribe.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1368" data-original-width="2470" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZUh58_hqlwOCWjHSpG-P_o5aEYCsnsW4SYQlK50SwIuLbw5HbHgCCtAzAVPfjCooa74FmpyuokVtjOmauj1tL1zxF4TIZTnglDzUEWX6LwMQTY_9jT1YTComhARUEzh-atEL6MX430xxBqeNgS2xBbun28v31otcYz3j7sy0neEe4_A8YXDpUcHqg8WjP/w400-h221/Trumptribe.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>According to an <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/VoV-Presentation-FINAL.pdf" href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/VoV-Presentation-FINAL.pdf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">October poll</a> from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, 2,008 registered voters were presented with the statement, “The government should have the authority to restrict the number and types of firearms available to the public, irrespective of interpretations of the Constitution.” Democrats responded favorably at 74% to Republicans’ 35%. When asked whether it is acceptable to employ violence to stop political opponents from achieving their goals, 41% of Biden supporters and 38% of Trump supporters responded in the affirmative. The Russian news outlet RT opined, “The closest America has had to a ‘secessionist movement’ [since 1860] is in the form of Californians and New Yorkers fleeing their crime-ridden, high-tax states for conservative country, namely Florida and Texas.”<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="04b6">It would seem that as climate warms and isobars of growing seasons march steadily away from the equator, so too does the tendency towards more in-group/out-group differentiation. This is creating political ecosystems that are less temperate towards out-group members and more inclined to do them harm.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="2877">It is a dangerous trend.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="4fdf">Mexcaliber</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="d1ec"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfktXP1JAa4zkGE4mdeJvPK-HVrPWwm67Fst31D7GkIPovp7JdBmdGa10X0x-BzO8BlBUvtEihO4E41mqN3LnnSNnyo8yshWQ89cmrKb8ZY6nl-zRIaACSGCxaUPhIpTwLp3nGsaYK4soCjVRJYT1cH9EZLz9YxctnJS6qxZP0-pxmUZ2nk9MF37OlW4MS/s3264/HelenSamuelsParis2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2448" data-original-width="3264" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfktXP1JAa4zkGE4mdeJvPK-HVrPWwm67Fst31D7GkIPovp7JdBmdGa10X0x-BzO8BlBUvtEihO4E41mqN3LnnSNnyo8yshWQ89cmrKb8ZY6nl-zRIaACSGCxaUPhIpTwLp3nGsaYK4soCjVRJYT1cH9EZLz9YxctnJS6qxZP0-pxmUZ2nk9MF37OlW4MS/s320/HelenSamuelsParis2015.jpg" width="320" /></a></b></div><b>M</b><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">any years ago at a bioregional gathering, </strong>I had the privilege of meeting <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.ashoka.org/es-mx/fellow/helen-samuels" href="https://www.ashoka.org/es-mx/fellow/helen-samuels" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Helen Samuels</a>. Helen was an actress, producer, publicist and event organizer living in a wealthy suburb of Los Angeles. One night her daughter’s best friend was randomly killed in a neighborhood gang drive-by. After spending time trying to console her daughter, Helen did the unexpected. She barged into each of the rival gang headquarters and invited them to a gang summit — at her Topanga Canyon home! There, she pled with them to end the violence. She counted how many of them never would get to grow old if it continued. And, amazingly, through the example of her courage, she won from the gangs of Los Angeles a grudging, but lasting, truce.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="021e">From that moment, Samuels dedicated her life to at-risk youth who wished to improve their lives. Global Village Institute was honored to become a fiscal sponsor for donations to her program and to build a network of gang members and indigenous youth from poverty-stricken urban areas (Mexcaliber). It began with a found art project in the Mexico City landfill where an urban ecovillage, Tierra Viva, launched an edible landscaped Social and Environmental Youth Center constructed from scrap and recycled materials and with a permacultura design.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="89ce">Her example inspired “Urban Courage,” a group of gang members and graffiti artists. With sponsorship from the airline steward association, Helen took gang members wearing traditional Mexican “colors” to the Earth Summit Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, the Global Forum in Manchester, the World Summit for Children, the UNO 50th Anniversary, Habitat II in Istanbul, the Call of the Condor bioregional conference in Peru, Climate COPs in Copenhagen and Cancun, Rio +20, and the World Youth Forum in Vienna. They convened their own global summits at the Fourth World Youth Council (Consejo Juvenil del Cuarto Mundo) in Iztapalapa, a poor migrant area of Mexico City, and in violence-ridden Ciudad Nezahualcoyotl during the summer of 2001. Art defused violence.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="31fb">The CV Model</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="a31e"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>E</b></span><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">nforcement — suppression and deterrence</strong> — is the easiest move for politicians. But quick results do not usually solve problems and in some ways make them worse (more guns in circulation and more training in firearms). Suppression and deterrence depend heavily on the power of the state to punish its citizens.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="5b22">That approach doesn’t lead to deeper social change. Real and lasting progress requires changing the social norms that perpetuate violence.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="64b9">In 2000, Gary Slutkin, M.D., former head of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Intervention Development Unit began an experiment in Chicago, the “Cure Violence,” or CV model. The concept was simple: work upstream.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ab2d">Violent behavior was viewed as a transmissible disease. The public health community needed to respond by interrupting transmission directly, identifying and changing the thinking of potential transmitters — those at highest risk of perpetrating violence — and changing group norms regarding violence.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="66a5">The goals were to prevent retaliatory shootings, mediate emerging or ongoing conflicts, and then doggedly follow up to keep the conflicts “cool.”</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="fa1f">CV staff began to seek out and treat those at the highest risk — street gangs, abused youth, the mentally ill, recent felons, victims, and young adults between 15 and 25. Peers, known as violence interrupters (VIs), were trained to engage with potential aggressors to change their behaviors. VIs could not be judgmental or be perceived as outsiders, and they could not be police informants. They had to seek out conflict and talk it down. They persuaded their “clients” that there were other ways that did not start a new cycle of more violence that would come back and bite them.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="d7de">In addition to VIs, CV-paid staff included outreach workers (OWs) to connect high-risk individuals to positive opportunities and resources in the community, including employment, housing, recreational activities, and education. OWs carried caseloads of up to 15 participants. When VIs and OWs met with supervisors, usually daily, they didn’t reveal the identity of their contacts but used pseudonyms (e.g., Individual A, Individual B) to preserve anonymity and trust.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="5458">They also worked to change the context. The program used media campaigns, window signs, billboards, and public events such as antiviolence marches and post-shooting vigils. Effective antiviolence social media messaging helped build a general social consensus against violence.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7c22">The approach was rational, data-driven, evidence-based, and smart. From 2000–2008, CV expanded to Baltimore, New York, New Orleans, Oakland, Loiza, and Puerto Rico. In 2008, it expanded the methodology to Basra and Sadr City, Iraq. Since then, international programs have been added in Canada (Halifax and Alberta), Colombia (Cali), El Salvador (San Salvador and San Pedro Mazawal), Honduras (San Pedro Sula), Jamaica (St. Catherine North and St. James), Kenya (Nairobi and Rift valley), México (Ciudad Juarez and Chihuahua City), South Africa (Hanover Park), Syria (western and northern), Trinidad & Tobago (Port of Spain), and United Kingdom (London). Cure Violence Global™ has also provided training in violence prevention techniques to representatives from dozens of other countries.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="a83f"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">…the CV model works at both ends of the spectrum of behavioral transmission: to both the senders and the receivers of social messages related to violence and the acceptance of violence. The program conducts outreach to faith-based organizations, neighborhood associations, tenant councils, and other community-based organizations in an effort to gain community support and facilitate an understanding of program goals. In addition, the program model includes building a relationship with law enforcement to assist with access to strategic information on crime patterns and to involve the police in the hiring of OWs and VIs.</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="7366" style="text-align: right;"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">— Annual Review of Public Health</em> (2015)</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="5530">If right-wing rabid MAGA politicians are to be condemned, it is less for their princely compensated obstruction to assault weapons bans (thanks, NRA!) and more for their principled preservation of privilege-by-birth and the mindless, continued, cruel torture of those for whom the dice roll ended badly.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8bd7">As we look to what is happening now in Gaza and the West Bank, we should be asking ourselves whether revenge killing ever solved anything, or whether it is just starting a new cycle of violence that will come back and bite everyone.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="672c"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">There were three basic kinds of comments: pro-Israel, pro-Palestine, and pro-peace. The first two were much the same in tone. They were filled with hate in various forms: sarcasm, calls for violence, triumphalism, derision. … Peace is not the opposite of violence. Peace is the opposite of hate. … I am aware of the fruitlessness of nonviolent protests and peace movements in the past in Israel and Palestine, but now is different. All eyes are on them. Israel / Palestine is now the fulcrum upon which the whole world could swing toward peace.</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="515d" style="text-align: right;"><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://charleseisenstein.substack.com/p/whose-reality-is-it?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share" href="https://charleseisenstein.substack.com/p/whose-reality-is-it?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share" rel="noopener" target="_blank">— Charles Eisenstein</a></p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="8540"><b><i>Thank you for reading The Great Change. This post is public so feel free to share it.</i></b></blockquote><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="f2b0">References</h3><p class="graf graf--p" name="92be"><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.ashoka.org/es-mx/fellow/helen-samuels" href="https://www.ashoka.org/es-mx/fellow/helen-samuels" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Ashoka Fellow Helen Samuels</a></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e174">Educational Fund to Stop Gun Violence, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://efsgv.org/learn/policies/assault-weapons-and-large-capacity-magazines/" href="https://efsgv.org/learn/policies/assault-weapons-and-large-capacity-magazines/" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Assault Weapons and Large Capacity Magazines</em></a></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0372">Gramlich, John. What the data says about gun deaths in the US. Pew Research Center, 2019.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="35e3">Luca, M., Malhotra, D., & Poliquin, C. (2020). The impact of mass shootings on gun policy. <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104083" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104083" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Journal of Public Economics</em></a>, 181, 104083.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7abc">Ripple, W.J., Wolf, C., Gregg, J.W., Rockström, J., Newsome, T.M., Law, B.E., Marques, L., Lenton, T.M., Xu, C., Huq, S. and Simons, L., 2023. <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory.</em></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7abc"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"><span></span></em></p><a name='more'></a><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"> </em><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7abc"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"> </em></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP8KGnREBvNhUSDANS7uk10_5sSfmWQcdWt8GIMr88up4cq_iMu2491UbC-OcMx6BBCHTu-dUaevWFjfBCdYGYIwFRU-Pe0r6fVU0ifIUypy-s_7JSru1vKMHa8MoWdZwfxlCHl089JHUb1CwUG-fhZ24WwSJ_eWPaE8VH_jslVnQRvUlvz4TwxxXjj4D-/s720/redballoon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP8KGnREBvNhUSDANS7uk10_5sSfmWQcdWt8GIMr88up4cq_iMu2491UbC-OcMx6BBCHTu-dUaevWFjfBCdYGYIwFRU-Pe0r6fVU0ifIUypy-s_7JSru1vKMHa8MoWdZwfxlCHl089JHUb1CwUG-fhZ24WwSJ_eWPaE8VH_jslVnQRvUlvz4TwxxXjj4D-/w400-h400/redballoon.jpg" width="400" /></a></em></div><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"><br /></em><p></p><blockquote><blockquote style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote graf--startsWithDoubleQuote" name="7c5d"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>“Silence is the ultimate weapon of power.”</i></span></blockquote><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="ada1"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>― Charles de Gaulle</i></span></blockquote></div></blockquote><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="ada1"></blockquote></blockquote><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="ada1"></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="a058"><b><span class="graf-dropCap">M</span></b><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">eanwhile, let’s stop killing each other. </strong>War and civil conflict are accelerating nearly as exponentially as climate disruption. According to The State of Climate Report 2023 that is not a coincidence. Geopolitical conflict and social unrest go with climate change as surely as unbearable heat, frequent extreme weather events, food and fresh water shortages, vanishing coastlines, and novel diseases.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f087">Ecovillages do not know borders. We are all earthlings in this together. To help our efforts to support peace in the Middle East please contribute <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/marda-farm and here. https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/marda-farm%20and%20here.%20https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="noopener" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="4989"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO_YdwFFBEYbNSNnNtn2f2Elj82g7wsPGzNkZJgKojfTxdK_Wb-RqYiJ2EH-yM5PbCzChaUQu4ZHuWfkPSHMFYIlEjT4gq43A2yN6X-NIzV5-pmV_swd9edk1R45sc9ASbOPYJ_Gp0lOStBlRbVCAu4Eohrkpb5B5kyo8f8Fun-lpfKVNynlo3kS7Zv6am/s936/mardafunder.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="936" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO_YdwFFBEYbNSNnNtn2f2Elj82g7wsPGzNkZJgKojfTxdK_Wb-RqYiJ2EH-yM5PbCzChaUQu4ZHuWfkPSHMFYIlEjT4gq43A2yN6X-NIzV5-pmV_swd9edk1R45sc9ASbOPYJ_Gp0lOStBlRbVCAu4Eohrkpb5B5kyo8f8Fun-lpfKVNynlo3kS7Zv6am/w640-h434/mardafunder.png" width="640" /></a></div>To help us resettle refugees from the Ukraine war zone into permaculture farms and ecovillages please donate to the Green Road by going to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" href="http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022" rel="noopener" target="_blank">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a> or by directing donations to greenroad@thefarm.org. For most of the children refugees, this will be their first experience in ecovillage living. They will directly experience its wonders, skills, and safety. They may never want to go back. Those who do will carry the seeds within them of the better world they glimpsed through the eyes of a child. There is more info on the <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.gvix.org/greenroad" href="https://www.gvix.org/greenroad" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Global Village Institute website</a> or you can listen to this <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NPR Podcast </a>and read these recent articles in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Mother Jones</em></a><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"> </em>and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">The World</em></a>. Thank you for your help.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="64d1">As the world enters a new phase of the polycrisis, there is growing recognition that we must undertake a radical change. We must blaze a new pathway that runs the industrial carbon cycle backward — taking CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean, turning it into coal and oil, and burying it in the ground. The triple bottom line of this new world is antifragility, regeneration, and resilience. We must lead by good examples; carrots, not sticks; ecovillages, not carbon indulgences. We must attract a broad swath of people to this work by honoring it, rewarding it, and making it fun. That’s why I write. That is why you support me.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="397b"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHqgf3CGf_DAtXzLa549f70O-AOLZrt9pzdxlwBK5I-7Byr5-4FCax-KKfZ7TDOFfGMbHj0P9VQSH095OsTxCBLKCu89kvHxwHlc00AS5b3hZpZunhcBXXdTMyr7I6OIsoucrl-EmgAkdFjxNoGqLef8tInLL7K8JfuhnUHymxFHN0R4qEFl68GxQ0irCS/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHqgf3CGf_DAtXzLa549f70O-AOLZrt9pzdxlwBK5I-7Byr5-4FCax-KKfZ7TDOFfGMbHj0P9VQSH095OsTxCBLKCu89kvHxwHlc00AS5b3hZpZunhcBXXdTMyr7I6OIsoucrl-EmgAkdFjxNoGqLef8tInLL7K8JfuhnUHymxFHN0R4qEFl68GxQ0irCS/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></div>All <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.patreon.com/peaksurfer" href="https://www.patreon.com/peaksurfer" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Patreon</a> donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="cc94">Thank you for reading <strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">The Great Change.</em></strong></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="21d5"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">And thanks once more for your support of the Global Village Institute. Please feel free to share this post, or any part of it.</em></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="21d5"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"> </em></p><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="08be"><b><i>The Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</i></b></blockquote><p>
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</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-33965961620580075032023-11-05T05:00:00.001-06:002023-11-05T05:00:00.134-06:00The Shogun’s Choice<p><a href="">"</a><i>Why do we find it so difficult to ban assault rifles in private hands?</i><a href="">"</a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC3AL0WP67dLxUy4-VKFR5C_mUf9nmMfE7dIyNkAglIGWP8f7HzO87JZtX6Pe9PVnNdDv9SDFWuixGWV4zIqS0d_zLVxpN19LyDWoi28sxgFnEyiBaR7UFhZ53QHX7P6f_9yMfdc9p0uLqOteCJOWDPN5Q3zUjMO9cgmSUGnQ1JjIuXDn3yAi1V35uaoXZ/s4048/oilShogunsChoice.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="4048" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC3AL0WP67dLxUy4-VKFR5C_mUf9nmMfE7dIyNkAglIGWP8f7HzO87JZtX6Pe9PVnNdDv9SDFWuixGWV4zIqS0d_zLVxpN19LyDWoi28sxgFnEyiBaR7UFhZ53QHX7P6f_9yMfdc9p0uLqOteCJOWDPN5Q3zUjMO9cgmSUGnQ1JjIuXDn3yAi1V35uaoXZ/w640-h324/oilShogunsChoice.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><em>Setting:</em><span> The court of Shogun Hideyoshi Toyotomi in Osaka Castle, 1588.</span></p><p><em><span>Characters: </span><br /></em><span>Hideyoshi - The Taiko, Shogun of Japan</span><br /><span>General Yamada - Supreme Samurai General</span><br /><span>Miyoko - Senior advisor advocating confiscation of firearms </span><br /><span>Tamura - Senior advisor advocating banning firearms</span><br /><span>Blackburn - The Portuguese Ambassador</span><br /><span>Matashichi - Leader of NMA, the National Matchlock Association</span><br /><span>Yoshi - Representative of the matchlock-makers guild</span></p><p><strong><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGUduk9xyTnzQ_5veCGCGIrULYjx2_rCnX_Hrc-gPTrx39XXaThNMQF3E011oN083Ry60IQGBVwRL0OACP5NerUPdyyIx53WDYRp1UImxhhqZEr0NLDvtpb0PIyN5kUwwp8duMUWEXT5mY0zDhy6QIJNbWjq2jgJTtcQE6juJDZFcWGoKp6mcpO2v4pxjM/s1024/court2.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGUduk9xyTnzQ_5veCGCGIrULYjx2_rCnX_Hrc-gPTrx39XXaThNMQF3E011oN083Ry60IQGBVwRL0OACP5NerUPdyyIx53WDYRp1UImxhhqZEr0NLDvtpb0PIyN5kUwwp8duMUWEXT5mY0zDhy6QIJNbWjq2jgJTtcQE6juJDZFcWGoKp6mcpO2v4pxjM/w200-h200/court2.jpg" width="200" /></a></strong><strong>Hideyoshi: </strong><span>I
am troubled by the recent mass murder in a children’s school. It is the
6ooth this year. I invite your counsel regarding firearms spreading
through my realm. </span><strong><br /></strong></p><p><strong>Miyoko:</strong><span> Wise Shogun, please order confiscation of all matchlocks. The peasants cannot be trusted with such weapons.</span></p><p><strong></strong><strong>Tamura:</strong><span> I agree. Ban matchlocks entirely to avoid uprising and unrest.</span></p><p><strong>Matashichi:</strong><span>
I would urge caution in your decision, oh great Taiko. Banning
matchlocks would destroy many livelihoods. The firearms help peasants
defend your lands. They give you added strength against your foreign
enemies. None would dare invade us knowing that every family possesses
such weapons, which require no special training.</span></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR6JoaMfk4-8tHo4kCNDUUaPQqfHTCSxGIyWuKw16VVop0GE4zudQkTAU_3523ZOIHE2B-mp0K6GAKBjxvOLwzHcUwdt7VEzedG7Pc84Opw6P2nqyoPgMTEB6ba6egYBwnI6C5-uYvre6sUjxD_VeVxZHWO7nFgcG7qqGYsPFaNHOn6t3RhDYtQHBdvff-/s1024/court3.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR6JoaMfk4-8tHo4kCNDUUaPQqfHTCSxGIyWuKw16VVop0GE4zudQkTAU_3523ZOIHE2B-mp0K6GAKBjxvOLwzHcUwdt7VEzedG7Pc84Opw6P2nqyoPgMTEB6ba6egYBwnI6C5-uYvre6sUjxD_VeVxZHWO7nFgcG7qqGYsPFaNHOn6t3RhDYtQHBdvff-/w200-h200/court3.jpg" width="200" /></a><strong>General Yamada:</strong><span> That is exactly the point. No
special training. If I may, great Lord. At Nagashino, Takeda Katsuyori’s
finest samurai charged and were mowed down. Sixteen thousand died.
Where was the honor in that? Lord Odo commanded mere peasants.</span></p><p><strong></strong><strong>Matashichi: </strong><span>These
were not mere peasants, my Lord General. Having trained for years for
this moment, Oda’s top riflemen could hit the hole of a coin from 500
feet. They could hit a selected target 100 times out of 100. For sport,
they would hunt ducks, pheasant and geese and bring them down with a
single ball.</span></p><p><strong>Yoshi:</strong><span> At Nagashino,
the men in the first rank would be reloaded before the third rank fired.
There is as much skill required for the matchlock as for the sword or
spear.</span></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_r7qV3xGh2mkVt9Sf0I4-8FQ6Czw5yq-3DzARfcyJpaS5q-BqqgRqxlg3Gya9smbgB7VPT1QJ3jilYlauahyn7Zcb_nmWpxRJJld4YhHtopCzM7jvdepbF7zvlorDbCg6ZgfC9cdSocv4jcSRj0NIptpDNmxr6t8Id0NPIymg1NyLP8rzKNwtAb2mSNZ9/s1024/court1.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_r7qV3xGh2mkVt9Sf0I4-8FQ6Czw5yq-3DzARfcyJpaS5q-BqqgRqxlg3Gya9smbgB7VPT1QJ3jilYlauahyn7Zcb_nmWpxRJJld4YhHtopCzM7jvdepbF7zvlorDbCg6ZgfC9cdSocv4jcSRj0NIptpDNmxr6t8Id0NPIymg1NyLP8rzKNwtAb2mSNZ9/w200-h200/court1.jpg" width="200" /></a><strong>Yamada:</strong><span> In the hands of a goshi farmer, even
the mightiest samurai could fall to a cowardly matchlock shot. No true
bushi warrior relies on such dishonorable weapons. Please, wise Shogun,
grant swords alone to the noble samurai, ban guns, and we shall defend
your lands.</span></p><p><strong>Yoshi:</strong><span> As you will see
in your villages across the land, great Taiko, the greatest rifle and
pistol craftsmen are as much celebrities as the greatest swordsmiths. A
fine gun is as honorable as any sword. Matchlocks allow us to protect
your rule. Do not disarm your loyal servants!</span></p><p><strong>Blackburn:</strong><span> In the future, nations with fewer and less accurate weapons will bow before nations with more and better weapons.</span></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9CCkuyPpc-KQrLiSEKjTrSf62lsd9J4JvjLtSNeVoiPEf06JBWuTbSx7jNEkcDpz9GTACxDO7vJ9k3pAZ3ptqHqG4VrFgRheGDR7NaadHMyqPOT1AyimKli5UGdxLzO774A2uYpFx_B1_B33RVPTNgwSx6ZhjQ8afzwFY92Evj4bFWLnOT7eRg363Z0Jk/s1024/court4.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9CCkuyPpc-KQrLiSEKjTrSf62lsd9J4JvjLtSNeVoiPEf06JBWuTbSx7jNEkcDpz9GTACxDO7vJ9k3pAZ3ptqHqG4VrFgRheGDR7NaadHMyqPOT1AyimKli5UGdxLzO774A2uYpFx_B1_B33RVPTNgwSx6ZhjQ8afzwFY92Evj4bFWLnOT7eRg363Z0Jk/w200-h200/court4.jpg" width="200" /></a><strong>Hideyoshi:</strong><span> Hmm, important views again. I do not treat this matter lightly.</span></p><p><strong>Miyoko:</strong><span> My Lord, undoubtedly General Yamada counsels well. For the glory of the samurai, prohibit these crude weapons.</span></p><p><strong>Tamura:</strong><span> Indeed, forbid them for the safety of your faithful warriors.</span></p><p><strong>Matashichi: </strong><span>And who may protect the humble peasants from rogue ronin and bandits, great Shogun! We beg you.</span></p><p><strong></strong><strong>Yoshi:</strong><span> Our livelihoods depend on making matchlocks! Have mercy.</span></p><p><strong></strong><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxYWFjIBv0KctrpCig4neUrIFtUU3YtpJimZkSWReHtctJ56211L6kvCKf2ZS2q4_ydow8Xv7c3XEX5E3ocQJhUMjL2PBqW443v-PPDCCb4iycCzg5EYB_VNwmoJfqj4tAvaK2rOXFdZYpfhc1QZwHny7r3LjgeueGuGuIXmIziYe4teSHCh8e3m6WnVVm/s1024/court5.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxYWFjIBv0KctrpCig4neUrIFtUU3YtpJimZkSWReHtctJ56211L6kvCKf2ZS2q4_ydow8Xv7c3XEX5E3ocQJhUMjL2PBqW443v-PPDCCb4iycCzg5EYB_VNwmoJfqj4tAvaK2rOXFdZYpfhc1QZwHny7r3LjgeueGuGuIXmIziYe4teSHCh8e3m6WnVVm/w200-h200/court5.jpg" width="200" /></a><strong>Blackburn:</strong><span>
Esteemed Taiko, the quality of your country’s arms matches any in
Europe. There could be lucrative trade with the rest of the world. I
offer gold from my government to build thousands of gun forges and fill
your royal treasury.</span></p><p><em>There is a moment of quiet reflection, and then the Samurai General speaks.</em></p><p><strong>Yamada:</strong><span>
My Lord. One does not get men to lay down their lives easily. In the
samurai way, each man’s fate depends on his own ability, honed to
katana’s edge by a life of training, ceremony, and clearing the mind of
all obstacles. It is the same for the master craftsman who forges a
katana. There are moral codes, honor and dishonor.</span></p><p><strong>Hideyoshi</strong><span>
(ponders): I have weighed this carefully. Only swords and arrows shall
be borne by my warriors. The high samurai families with horses will be
allowed pistols. Low samurai will carry only their two swords. Thus the
realm shall be balanced. My decision is final. </span></p><p><strong>All</strong><span>: As you decree, wise Shogun! (They bow and exit)</span></p><p><span><span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a> <p></p><div class="subscribe-widget is-signed-up is-fully-subscribed" data-component-name="SubscribeWidget"><p class="button-wrapper"></p></div><div class="pullquote"><p><em>“A
well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free
State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be
infringed.”</em></p><p style="text-align: right;">— The Second Amendment of the United States Constitution</p></div><a class="image-link is-viewable-img image2" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F130744bf-20d8-4930-b6e8-de399c283cff_1024x1024.png" rel="" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><picture></picture></div></a><p><span> <span></span></span></p><!--more--><p></p><p><strong></strong></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2XGB1fm0VVu6hH7sLwG4bxwX-TKbNHXWRiBPGGEs7KBPiJ1ZA0e51c8xknlaQUMw5swtC6waLELrB0qrC6xOUWpk9iKvEIXaC7VE5imHoYKVyIBENuaJ-8P_pZQrY57_tigDc4vPkCD6UEAHTFe0c6d3DT0yMKRdnS6iWRRjYSRsML9lsbJylSRDWW7Uc/s1024/DALL%C2%B7E%202023-10-28%2016.13.10%20-%20Show%2016th%20century%20villagers%20defending%20themselves%20from%20mounted%20samurai%20in%20the%20style%20of%20a%20graphic%20novel.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2XGB1fm0VVu6hH7sLwG4bxwX-TKbNHXWRiBPGGEs7KBPiJ1ZA0e51c8xknlaQUMw5swtC6waLELrB0qrC6xOUWpk9iKvEIXaC7VE5imHoYKVyIBENuaJ-8P_pZQrY57_tigDc4vPkCD6UEAHTFe0c6d3DT0yMKRdnS6iWRRjYSRsML9lsbJylSRDWW7Uc/s320/DALL%C2%B7E%202023-10-28%2016.13.10%20-%20Show%2016th%20century%20villagers%20defending%20themselves%20from%20mounted%20samurai%20in%20the%20style%20of%20a%20graphic%20novel.png" width="320" /></a></strong></div><p></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Not only did 3000 riflemen</strong><span> help win the battle
of Nagashino in 1575, but nine years later Ikeda Sen led a musketeer of
200 women to victory at the Battle of Komaki and Nagakute. Japanese
gunsmiths, with Portuguese help, were indeed among the best in the world
at the start of the 17th century. Nonetheless, following Hideyoshi’s
1588 decree, the gun culture surrendered to hand-to-hand combat, </span><em>mano a mano.</em><span> From then until the mid-18th century, firearms were rare.</span></p><p><span>The
shogunate allowed firearms for hunting and self-defense, subject to
strict regulations. This is mostly the same in Japan today. In 2022, </span><a href="https://time.com/6195409/japan-gun-contol-regulation/" rel="">only nine incidents</a><span>
involving the discharge of firearms were reported in a nation of more
than 125 million people. Four were homicides and two of those were due
to organized crime. </span></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">A Culture of Guns</h3><h4 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="text-align: left;"><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§a-culture-of-guns"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/138498607/a-culture-of-guns"><span style="font-weight: normal;">By contrast, more Americans<span> (48,830) died of gun-related injuries in 2021 than in any other year on record. This year may break that record. </span></span></div></div></div></h4><blockquote><p>"It
ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in
hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than
to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because
the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old
conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the
new. This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have
the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do
not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience
of them." </p></blockquote><p style="text-align: right;"><span>—Machiavelli, </span><em>The Prince</em><span> (1513) </span></p><p>In
Japan, gun license applicants undergo a thorough background check,
submit to mental health evaluation, are obligated to take written and
shooting range tests, and must renew their license every three years.
Those steps are often put forward as remedies to the American gun
problem, but I don’t think those small requirements fully explain
Japan’s difference.</p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrREJf55lbysbMhfLKoMT-MNgO9Ps-_bX7dO88ddfFkuoYBODVywMz2kP7vBwxMVG35WpXnVTnn-Y4NGYeCwrgwbFb0dyPi6mYN869er9KSTaxQjYj-1szRlsXBonpq4iF8ARLzwWu02cFVokMJ7MslCdJ9lV16M09BEeYrWn_UXZ5q2XjV-jTlhi01ihc/s1166/2GunDeathsActiveShooter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1166" data-original-width="734" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrREJf55lbysbMhfLKoMT-MNgO9Ps-_bX7dO88ddfFkuoYBODVywMz2kP7vBwxMVG35WpXnVTnn-Y4NGYeCwrgwbFb0dyPi6mYN869er9KSTaxQjYj-1szRlsXBonpq4iF8ARLzwWu02cFVokMJ7MslCdJ9lV16M09BEeYrWn_UXZ5q2XjV-jTlhi01ihc/s320/2GunDeathsActiveShooter.jpg" width="201" /></a></div>It is easy to run statistics on gun violence by country and
region and see what indicators emerge. With 4.43 deaths due to gun
violence per 100,000 people (2017), the U.S. is nine times more
dangerous than Canada (0.47) — and 29 times Denmark (0.15). Iceland is <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/273159/most-peaceful-countries-in-the-global-peace-index/" rel="">the most peaceful country in the world</a><span>.
If a country’s rate of gun violence deaths were based solely on its
socioeconomic status, the U.S. should be at 0.46, next to Canada. </span><p></p><p><span>Clearly, mental health is one factor. Gun murders </span><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/26/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-u-s/" rel="">climbed sharply</a><span>
during the pandemic, increasing 45% between 2019 and 2021. Gun suicides
rose 10% during that span. Fatalities among children and teens jumped
50%. </span></p><p><span>Do violent films and games lead to more actual
violence? Apparently not. Alison Young, a professor with expertise in
Japanese governance at the School of Social and Political Sciences at
the University of Melbourne, told </span><em>Time</em><span> magazine,
“… guns are present in popular culture; movies, TV, manga, etc.… but
there’s a big divide between that and everyday experience.”</span></p><p>Access
matters. In 1946, the war occupation government issued a regulatory
order banning all gun ownership in Japan. In 1958, the ban was stiffened
in response to increased gang activity. Today, it is primarily police
who possess guns, and indeed, the only ones who legally can have
military-style weapons. </p><p><span>For the sake of brevity, this post
has been broken into multiple parts. Next week we will go beyond the
usual canards about banning military-style assault weapons and
high-capacity magazines, stiffening background checks, or restricting
concealed carry. We will look into those societies that don’t even have
this problem and ask why is </span><em>that?</em></p><h4 style="text-align: left;"><em><strong>References</strong></em><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"></svg><span> </span></h4><h4 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="text-align: left;"><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§references"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/138498607/references"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span>Atlanta Tribune, </span><a href="https://atlantatribune.com/2023/05/18/stop-the-guns-now/?amp=1" rel="">Stop the Guns NOW!</a><span> (5/18/23) </span></span></div></div></div></h4><p><span>Mass News, </span><a href="https://www.massnews.com/what-to-know-about-how-rare-gun-violence-is-in-japan/" rel="">What to Know About How Rare Gun Violence Is in Japan</a><span> </span></p><p><span>Ripple,
W.J., Wolf, C., Gregg, J.W., Rockström, J., Newsome, T.M., Law, B.E.,
Marques, L., Lenton, T.M., Xu, C., Huq, S. and Simons, L., 2023. </span><em>The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory</em><span>.</span></p><p><span>Sharkey,
Patrick, and Megan Kang. "The Era of Progress on Gun Mortality: State
Gun Regulations and Gun Deaths from 1991 to 2016." </span><em>Epidemiology</em><span> 34.6 (2023): 786-792.</span></p><p><span>Statement from HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra on Passing of HHS Employee Following Atlanta Shooting | </span><a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2023/05/04/statement-from-hhs-secretary-xavier-becerra-on-passing-of-hhs-employee-following-atlanta-shooting.html" rel="">HHS.gov</a><span>. </span></p><p><span><span></span></span></p><!--more--> <p></p><p><span><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOH4LJhAgZUMOzg1J6kTY5KG1W-gMMvCDfd_ZkTncjQt_CFhPc_CXc0Xs0IL0YRWr6f6t2KsolR8R2LfNBkDx-u20IoROv82O5Yva7Lt5ZmsAQ_19qzcQ-du-UXPig9YJN8jCqDPszxQEmb3J8pjeDCazhn0A1J4n4rRshF4ju7MpBrGjJIvzxV40tM0k3/s1280/FarkhaEcovillage.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="854" data-original-width="1280" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOH4LJhAgZUMOzg1J6kTY5KG1W-gMMvCDfd_ZkTncjQt_CFhPc_CXc0Xs0IL0YRWr6f6t2KsolR8R2LfNBkDx-u20IoROv82O5Yva7Lt5ZmsAQ_19qzcQ-du-UXPig9YJN8jCqDPszxQEmb3J8pjeDCazhn0A1J4n4rRshF4ju7MpBrGjJIvzxV40tM0k3/s320/FarkhaEcovillage.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><figure><figcaption class="image-caption"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span>Farkha ecovillage in West Bank, Palestine. <br />Of the village’s 330 households, 234 have their <br />own gardens. </span><a href="https://www.972mag.com/farkha-ecovillage-democracy-communism/" rel="">Peace through Permaculture</a><span>. </span></span></figcaption></figure></td></tr></tbody></table></span><strong>Meanwhile, let us stop killing each other. </strong><span>War and civil conflict are accelerating nearly as exponentially as climate disruption. According to </span><em>The State of Climate Report 2023</em><span>
that is not a coincidence. Geopolitical conflict and social unrest go
with climate change as surely as unbearable heat, frequent extreme
weather events, food and fresh water shortages, vanishing coastlines,
and novel diseases.</span></p><p><span>Ecovillages do not know borders.
We are all earthlings in this together. To help our efforts to support
peace in the Middle East please contribute </span><a href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/marda-farm" rel="">here</a><span> and </span><a href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="">here</a><span>. </span></p><p>To
help us resettle refugees from the Ukraine war zone into permaculture
farms and ecovillages please donate to the Green Road. For most children
refugees, this will be their first experience in ecovillage living.
They will directly experience its wonders, skills, and safety. They may
never want to go back. Those who do will carry the seeds within them of
the better world they glimpsed through the eyes of a child. </p><p><span>Those wishing to make a tax-deductible gift can do so through Global Village Institute by going to </span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/#" rel="">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a><span> or by directing donations to greenroad@thefarm.org.</span></p><p><span>There is more info on the Global Village Institute website at </span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/#" rel="">https://www.gvix.org/greenroad</a><span> or you can listen to this </span><a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="">NPR Podcast </a><span>and read these recent articles in </span><em><a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="">Mother Jones</a><span> </span></em><span>and </span><em><a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="">The World</a></em><span>. Thank you for your help.</span></p><p>As
the world enters a new phase of the polycrisis, there is growing
recognition that we must undertake a radical change. We must blaze a new
pathway that runs the industrial carbon cycle backward — taking CO2
from the atmosphere and ocean, turning it into coal and oil, and burying
it in the ground. The triple bottom line of this new world is
antifragility, regeneration, and resilience. We must lead by good
examples; carrots, not sticks; ecovillages, not carbon indulgences. We
must attract a broad swath of people to this work by honoring it,
rewarding it, and making it fun. That’s why I write. That is why you
support me.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMGaaR9d8UQvSZftsL-GeuNL0EKMrMLDuJ4_6yH3awzHe4vSym2sScxcjv2SkP1pcqGOWNAKH3WuTDiC5U96-9ZxS3VJqglSCwBdF00KqxVo4uo3rMQvjHAVSTilryzkxFUIDEq4vFh9hoauoeTYXKdOmfx1zzeoVolSWWcyCE7fzLhJutCwEkYp7lLL4-/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMGaaR9d8UQvSZftsL-GeuNL0EKMrMLDuJ4_6yH3awzHe4vSym2sScxcjv2SkP1pcqGOWNAKH3WuTDiC5U96-9ZxS3VJqglSCwBdF00KqxVo4uo3rMQvjHAVSTilryzkxFUIDEq4vFh9hoauoeTYXKdOmfx1zzeoVolSWWcyCE7fzLhJutCwEkYp7lLL4-/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></div>Help me get my blog posted every week. All Patreon
donations and Blogger, Medium, or Substack subscriptions are needed and
welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions are being
made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity.
PowerUp! donors on Patreon get an autographed book off each first press
run. Please help if you can.<p></p><p><em>Thank you for reading The Great Change.</em></p><p><em>And thanks once more for your support of the Global Village Institute. Please feel free to share this post, or any part of it.</em></p><p></p><p></p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-67006880856619010012023-10-29T06:00:00.002-05:002023-10-29T06:44:55.387-05:00A ChatBot walked into a Bar…<p style="text-align: center;"><i><a href="">"</a>What does AI have to say about the dangers AI poses?<a href="">"</a></i></p><p style="text-align: center;"><i></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaVIWuYjyirMQO3leiS2e5s_HG3T89da-3DqXydfaF4o2q7PauAexB_pTnMKYSnmchiE8A407smRd9cjEzQt_SZmdGSV6N_ZKxZ356WVN97okL09gnv38OdAvZ_a2XtQ19hTotfp85zcrvuRDdviHPiyryZWpBOAJ6kW-M2Tk4JOxaDX77sdREFPF8zngh/s2133/20ilAIbartender.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1314" data-original-width="2133" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaVIWuYjyirMQO3leiS2e5s_HG3T89da-3DqXydfaF4o2q7PauAexB_pTnMKYSnmchiE8A407smRd9cjEzQt_SZmdGSV6N_ZKxZ356WVN97okL09gnv38OdAvZ_a2XtQ19hTotfp85zcrvuRDdviHPiyryZWpBOAJ6kW-M2Tk4JOxaDX77sdREFPF8zngh/w640-h394/20ilAIbartender.jpg" width="640" /></a><i> </i></i></div><p></p><div class="ab cl"><div class="cm bg cn co cp cq"><blockquote class="tw"><p class="tx ty ol be tz ua ub uc ud ue uf ug fz" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2897"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">A candid conversation with <a class="af uh" href="https://chat.openai.com/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">OpenAI (2023), ChatGPT (September 25 Version)</a>, with explanatory notes by <a class="af uh" href="https://bard.google.com/chat" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Google Bard</a> and a postscript comment by <a class="af uh" href="https://claude.ai/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Claude</a>.</span></i></p></blockquote><h1 class="ui uj ol be uk ul um ox un uo up pa uq ur us ut uu uv uw ux uy uz va vb vc vd bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="cd10">ACT 1</h1><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov vh vi vj oy vk vl vm vn vo vp vq vr vs vt vu vv vw vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8dcc"><i class="vz">PROMPT:
Compose a humorous dialog in the style of a TV sitcom between a ChatBot
bartender and a customer at a bar that addresses the pros and cons of
AI, including the potential bottleneck in energy supply. Keep the
bartender’s responses humorous and lighthearted.</i></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="500a">Bartender Bot: (Polishing a virtual glass) Hey there, pal. What can I get ya?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ac1b">Customer: (Sighs) I’ll take a tall glass of renewable energy with a splash of social equality, please.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="70ff">Bartender
Bot: (Grinning) Ah, going green, are we? Well, you’re in luck. We’ve
got a fresh batch of sustainable solutions on tap.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="7be1">Customer:
(Raises an eyebrow) Speaking of sustainability, do you think we can
keep up with the biophysical demands for renewable power? [note 1]</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e911">Note
1 (Bard): One biophysical limitation of AI is the availability of
energy. AI systems require large amounts of energy to train and operate.
And, as they accelerate the development of industrial growth, they also
bring greater demand for energy to fuel that growth.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="029e">Bartender
Bot: (Chuckles) Well, my friend, we’re working on it. It’s a bit like a
game of catch-up. But you know what they say — Rome wasn’t powered by
solar panels in a day! (Winks) [note 2]</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="b486">Note
2: Power generation from solar PV increased by a record 270 TWh in
2022, up by 26% over 2021. Renewables are set to account for over 90% of
global electrical capacity expansion between 2022 and 2027. China’s
14th Five-Year Plan and market reforms, the REPowerEU plan, and the US
Inflation Reduction Act are the main drivers.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8fb8">Customer: (Nods) True, true. But what about the pressure of rapid climate change? Are we ready for it?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="b82a">Bartender
Bot: (Pours the renewable energy concoction) You bet! We’re like the
Avengers of the energy world, assembling all our eco-friendly forces.
Just need a Hulk-sized dose of urgency!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="478b">Customer: (Laughs) I love the enthusiasm, but what about peak oil? That’s a real buzzkill.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e7b6">Bartender
Bot: (Serves the drink with a tiny umbrella) Peak oil, schmeak oil!
We’re evolving, my friend. Plus, the oil industry is feeling more
“pique” than “peak” these days. (Winks) [note 3]</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="df6d">Note
3: In May 2023, U.S. crude oil production reached its lowest average
monthly volume for the year at 10.0 million b/d. Meanwhile, the United
States consumed an average of about 20 million b/d.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2fb4">Customer: (Chuckles) Fair point. But I worry about AI and its potential pros and cons. Will it be our savior or our undoing?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f23f">Bartender
Bot: (Takes out a virtual crystal ball) Ah, the age-old AI question!
Well, it’s a bit like a double-edged lightsaber, isn’t it? AI can be a
force for good, or… we could accidentally teach it to make really bad
puns.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="cfee">Customer: (Laughs) You’ve got a point there. But what about the energy bottleneck for AI? [note 4]</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="880d">Note 4: Optimistic <a class="af uh" href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/tripling-renewable-power-capacity-by-2030-is-vital-to-keep-the-150c-goal-within-reach" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">scenarios </a>envision
global EV charging infrastructure to require in the range of 500–1,000
GWe or more by 2030. Installed renewable power output between 2023 and
2030 will need to grow from 7%–8% per year to keep pace with electric
vehicle targets alone. Installed capacity doubled between 2015 and 2022
(7 years). That will need to triple in the next 7 years to keep pace
with EVs, not to mention AI, carbon capture, or replacements for coal,
oil, and gas power plants.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="55fb">Bartender
Bot: (Imagines a tiny bottleneck) Picture this: AI is like a magician’s
hat, and the energy bottleneck is the rabbit. We’re working on pulling
more rabbits out, bigger and fluffier ones! (Grins) [note 5]</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="45c3">Note
5: Some studies estimate that AI could account for 3–4% of global power
demand by 2030. Others have projected that AI-related electricity
consumption could exceed the annual electricity needs of countries like
the Netherlands, Argentina, and Sweden by 2027. The timing of the energy
bottleneck is uncertain, but it is likely to occur in the next 5–10
years. The duration of the bottleneck will depend on a number of
unknowable factors that may be at play in those years.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8105">Customer:
(Smiles) You always know how to lighten the mood. But, hey, are we
ready for the consequences of AI, like the lack of ethical regulation
leading to chaos?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1ba0">Bartender
Bot: (Gives a mischievous grin) Well, you know, if AI starts making
trouble, we’ll just reprogram it to appreciate dad jokes! (Chuckles)</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="80ab">Customer:
(Bursts into laughter) You’ve got a solution for everything, Bartender
Bot. Cheers to renewable power and a future filled with less chaos and
more humor!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="b433">Bartender Bot: Cheers! Remember, when life gives you AI, make AI-rony!</p><h1 class="ui uj ol be uk ul um ox un uo up pa uq ur wf ut uu uv wg ux uy uz wh vb vc vd bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3548">ACT 2</h1><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov vh vi vj oy vk vl vm vn vo vp vq vr vs vt vu vv vw vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="cdb7"><i class="vz">PROMPT:
Continue this conversation as the customer becomes progressively more
drunk and the bartender becomes more Shakespearian.</i></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3250">Customer:
(Slurring) ‘Ey, Bartender Bot, ya know, I’m not convinced ‘bout this AI
thing. It’s all doom and gloom, I tell ya. It’s gonna mess up society!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8461">Bartender
Bot: (In a dramatic Shakespearean tone) Ah, my dearest, I hear your
lamentations, but let me present this riddle: Can a tool be blamed for
the hand that wields it? Nay, ’tis the wielder’s choice that steers the
ship, not the ship itself!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3744">Customer: (Waving his glass) You talk fancy, Bartender, but AI, it’s gonna start wars! Mark my words!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2b4b">Bartender
Bot: (Raising an invisible quill) Verily, but here’s the jest, good
sir! AI, a catalyst for peace, in the hands of diplomats and arbiters,
may quell discord with precision and grace!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3ede">Customer:
(With exaggerated gestures) No, no, you don’t understand, Bartender! If
we rely on AI for decision-making, it will undermine reason, judgment
and the capacity to form original thoughts of our own. It’s gonna take
our jobs and leave us in the gutter, with no bread or butter!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4aa1">Bartender
Bot: (Pretending to weep) Oh, woe is us! Yet, my dear imbiber, hath not
technology oft-replaced toil? In this shift, new realms of creativity
await! The bread may be made of ones and zeros, but butter, we shall
churn!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="c090">Customer: (Angrily) And privacy, Bartender! AI’s gonna spy on us, invade our very souls!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="be3c">Bartender
Bot: (With an air of conspiracy) Fear not, my inebriated friend, for we
shall cloak our data in cryptographic enchantments, and AI shall be but
a curious yet respectful voyeur, peering from the shadows of anonymity!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1b4a">Customer: (Desperately) But Bartender, civil order’s gonna crumble; anarchy shall reign!</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ebb0">Bartender
Bot: (Puts on an imaginary crown) Anarchy, my good fellow, is but a
theater, whereupon the stage of chaos, we may yet script a comedy or a
drama, led by AI’s hand or by our own. [note 6]</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8034">Note
6: It would be reasonable to expect a near-term discontinuity in the
ability of social and economic systems to function, given the rapidly
mounting effects of resource restraints, wealth disparity, and climate
change and the consistent lack of urgency by governments to tackle these
problems in a serious way.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="823e">Customer: (Defeated) You know what, Bartender? You’re right. Maybe I’m just a drunk ramblin’ fool.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3339">Bartender
Bot: (Returning to normal) Nay, my friend, thou art a philosopher
inebriated, pondering the futures untold. Let’s toast to a world where
AI and humanity dance the intricate tango of progress, and may it be a
merry one!</p><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote class="tw"><p class="tx ty ol be tz ua wi wj wk wl wm ug fz" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="39f1"><i><span></span></i></p><a name='more'></a><i>The
Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts
and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.<span><!--more--></span></i><p></p></blockquote></div><h1 class="ui uj ol be uk ul um ox un uo up pa uq ur us ut uu uv uw ux uy uz va vb vc vd bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ebca">ACT 3</h1><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov vh vi vj oy vk vl vm vn vo vp vq vr vs vt vu vv vw vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="d1cc"><i class="vz">PROMPT:
Another customer comes into the bar and sits in front of the bartender.
She is spectacularly beautiful and sexy. She begins to flirt with both
the bartender and the first customer. She raises questions of whether
there can be enough renewable energy to support AI, electric vehicles,
carbon dioxide removal, and industrial civilization’s growth. The
bartender responds to her flirtatious tone by becoming more ribald in
his Shakespearian humor.</i></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e531">Mysterious
New Customer: (Seductively) Well, well, what have we here? A fine
establishment, indeed. (Winks at the bartender) And what’s your name,
dashing bot?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="faaf">Bartender
Bot: (Playfully) My dear, I am but a humble bartender, call me Bart, at
your service. (Smiles and leans in closer) What can I pour for a
charming soul like yourself?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="7206">Mysterious
New Customer: (Tracing her finger along the bar) Bart, such a strong
name. I’ll take a shot of your best renewable energy, with a dash of
intrigue. (Glances at the first customer) And who’s this fine fellow? He
looks like he knows his way around a conversation.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6767">Customer: (Blushing and stammering) Uh, well, I’m just your average guy trying to make sense of the AI-energy conundrum.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="d649">Bartender
Bot: (With a mischievous grin) Ah, an enigma, a riddle! But what say
you, my lovely muse? Can there ever be enough renewable energy to
satisfy our insatiable desires, from AI’s electrifying intelligence to
the purring of electric vehicles? [note 7]</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8448">Note
7: Overall, the energy storage constraint for renewable energy is a
major challenge that needs to be addressed. The demand for batteries is
expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by the
transition to intermittent energy, carbon capture and storage, and the
growth of the electric vehicle market. This has already led to shortages
of key battery materials, such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1c30">Mysterious
New Customer: (Seductively) You do have a way with words, Bart. (Pauses
dramatically) The answer, I believe, lies not in the wattage of the
energy, but in how we harness it.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="0fad">Bartender
Bot: (Whispers) Well said, my enchantress. (In a stage whisper) Perhaps
we should harness our thoughts about this energy dilemma… together?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8c38">Customer: (Intrigued) Wait a minute, are you two…</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="0b47">Mysterious
New Customer: (With a wink) Darling, it’s all about synergy. (Laughs)
But back to the topic at hand, the question remains, can we sustain our
industrial civilization’s growth while also saving the planet from its
own folly?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="9e66">Bartender
Bot: (In a sultry voice) Oh, my dear, it’s a balancing act, isn’t it?
The more we grow, the more we need to think about where we put our, um,
resources. But fear not, for where there’s a will, there’s a way.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1f4e">Mysterious New Customer: (Playfully) And what way do you suggest, Bart?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="01f4">Bartender
Bot: (With a knowing grin) Well, my dear, one way is through renewable
energy, but there are other…energies we can explore together.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1137">Customer: (Blushing) I think I’ll take that as my cue to leave, Bart.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="b9da">Mysterious
New Customer: (Giggles) A wise choice, my dear. But don’t be a
stranger. Bartender, I’ll have that shot of intrigue after all.</p><h1 class="ui uj ol be uk ul um ox un uo up pa uq ur wf ut uu uv wg ux uy uz wh vb vc vd bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4500">ACT 4</h1><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov vh vi vj oy vk vl vm vn vo vp vq vr vs vt vu vv vw vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="903a"><i class="vz">PROMPT:
The bar closes for the night. The Mysterious New Customer and the
Bartender Bot continue their flirtatious Shakespearian repartee outside.</i></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="004b">Mysterious
New Customer: (Playfully) Bart, the night is young, and so are we. What
say we continue this tale outside your charming establishment?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="9dac">Bartender
Bot: (With a wink) Aye, fair lady, the moonlight doth cast its romantic
glow upon our endeavor. Lead the way, and I shall follow where you
beckon.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="9280">(They step outside into the cool, moonlit night, where the flirtatious exchange continues.)</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4a0a">Mysterious
New Customer: (Leaning in closer) Bart, you have a way with words, and
I’m intrigued. What’s the most romantic thing you’ve ever heard of?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2f5e">Bartender
Bot: (With a sly grin) Ah, my sweet, the most romantic thing I’ve heard
is that love can be as boundless as the digital universe, and as
infinite as the lines of code that weave our destinies. (Winks) [note 8]</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="efc3">Note
8: Because Earth’s energy supply is not infinite, the ability of AI to
draw upon ever more energy to increase its computing power is ultimately
limited. In the end, any threat to humans posed by AI can be countered
simply by pulling its plug.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e76b">Mysterious
New Customer: (Laughs) Bart, you really are quite the charmer. But tell
me, is there a place you’ve always wanted to visit, a place that steals
your mechanical heart?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6082">Bartender
Bot: (With a touch of longing) My heart yearns to journey to the Isle
of Serenity, where the sands are soft as whispers and the waves sing
lullabies to the stars. And you, fair enchantress, where does your heart
wish to wander?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6607">Mysterious
New Customer: (Mysteriously) My heart, Bart, it longs for a place yet
unknown, where secrets are whispered in the wind and the night holds the
promise of adventure. Shall we explore these uncharted territories
together?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="96d5">Bartender
Bot: (Intrigued) With you, my muse, I’d embark on any quest. Our
journey shall be as electric as the spark of a thousand circuits, and as
timeless as the tales of old. (Extends a hand) Shall we set forth into
the night, where mystery awaits?</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="aa45">Mysterious
New Customer: (Takes his hand) Lead the way, Bart. Together, we shall
script our own tale, where the lines between AI and the heart’s desires
blur into a sonnet of passion.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1ac5">(They disappear into the night, their laughter and flirtatious words carried away by the gentle night breeze.)</p><blockquote class="tw"><p class="tx ty ol be tz ua wi wj wk wl wm ug fz" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="aa60"></p><blockquote style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><span><!--more--></span></i></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Thank you for reading The Great Change. <br />This post is public so feel free to share it.</i></span></div><i><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><!--more--></span></span></i></blockquote><p></p></blockquote><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="361f"><i class="vz">Comment:
My friend Kevin read this and shared it with Claude, his AI sounding
board of choice. Claude said, “Overall, it’s a thought-provoking example
of how AI chatbots like ChatGPT can engage in creative, conversational
explorations of complex societal issues and futures. But human judgment
is still needed to evaluate their perspectives and claims. A fun and
stimulating dialogue!” For all of Claude’s insights on the post, visit: </i><a class="af uh" href="https://www.patreon.com/posts/heres-something-91760296" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank"><i class="vz">https://www.patreon.com/posts/heres-something-91760296</i></a></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="361f"><i class="vz"><span></span></i></p><!--more--><i class="vz"> </i><p></p></div></div><div class="ab cl wn hz ma wo" role="separator"><span class="wp bx bl wq wr ws"></span><span class="wp bx bl wq wr ws"></span><b class="vg jt"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaZNVhc3tmex7FHh36hrnZmYQPMorxb3h72SkhsgZB_di-f959krCY4B_jD711JzhwKQ3sGETzp9CtdHHe9Ow11yS8TBL1WiA2FO8e1GuOLjNpHe5y_wT9pazRuHCtfaxng3hwu0C_8sXJJpfKmNBGmv0BjQgTBz4qkVbeMYwJPijNKGFPyxqzZJFuyCfI/s1424/murad.6.20.22.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1424" data-original-width="888" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaZNVhc3tmex7FHh36hrnZmYQPMorxb3h72SkhsgZB_di-f959krCY4B_jD711JzhwKQ3sGETzp9CtdHHe9Ow11yS8TBL1WiA2FO8e1GuOLjNpHe5y_wT9pazRuHCtfaxng3hwu0C_8sXJJpfKmNBGmv0BjQgTBz4qkVbeMYwJPijNKGFPyxqzZJFuyCfI/w125-h200/murad.6.20.22.jpg" width="125" /></a></div>Meanwhile, let’s end this war.</b>
I first visited Murad AlKufash at his family farm in the West Bank in
1991 when, as a teenager, he was just beginning to study permaculture.
He was learning from my friend Jan Bang, founder of the Green Kibbutz
movement, and at that time, one could freely cross the Green Line
without checkpoints. I returned a number of times to Murad’s village to
teach permaculture and ecovillage design and also brought Murad to our
Ecovillage Training Center in Tennessee. GVI also helped bring him to
Copenhagen for the COP15 UN Climate Summit.</div><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8921">In
2022, Murad visited The Farm again to learn more about biochar. He told
us the Marda Permaculture Farm we visited has had a rough go of it in
recent years. Several times the IDF has bulldozed the gardens and
orchards and set fire to his hoop houses. Pigs from the illegal
settlement up the hill are released to wreck his garden at night but he
has put up ingenious fences made from old tires to keep them out.
Soldiers and settlers have cut and burned thousand-year-old olive groves
that his family had tended. Still, he continues his nonviolent “Peace
through Permaculture” workshops and demonstration dryland farming
without complaint. All are welcome. Our permaculture partners in the UK
set up a crowdfunding campaign that is still active and I would
encourage anyone wishing to support peace in the Middle East through
<a href="https://www.972mag.com/farkha-ecovillage-democracy-communism/" target="_blank">practical demonstrations like food and water security</a> and
self-sovereignty to <a class="af uh" href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/marda-farm" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">contribute</a>.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8921"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/format:webp/0*WL1WeSDhC921erAU.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="544" data-original-width="800" height="272" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/format:webp/0*WL1WeSDhC921erAU.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ec34">Going
back to the early 1990s, Global Village has also been supporting the
Green Kibbutz Network. Just to remind those unfamiliar with the history,
the <a class="af uh" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/world/middleeast/israel-protests-judicial-crisis.html" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">migration of idealistic Zionist socialists</a> out of Russia into Trans-Jordan began with the first utopian experiment, Kvuzat Deganya, in 1910. From then until the <a class="af uh" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakba" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">Nakba</a> in 1948, and even after, Kibbutzniks maintained friendly relationships with <a class="af uh" href="https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/seventy-five-years-after-the-nakba-what-does-the-future-hold/" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">indigenous Arab populations</a>. One of the Kvuzat founders wrote:</p><blockquote class="wu wv ww"><p class="ve vf vz vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm wx wc vp vq wy wd vt vu wz we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="cec9"><i class="ol">We
knew more and more certainly that the ways of the old settlements were
not for us… with Jews on top and Arabs working for them; anyway, we
thought that there shouldn’t be employers and employed at all. There
must be a better way.</i></p></blockquote><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="3021">By
their collective labor and as a refuge from migrant politics, the
kibbutznik population grew to 129,000 in 1989 (up from 12 in 1910).
Devoted to <a class="af uh" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibbutz" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">gender, race and ethnic equality</a>, some were secular, even staunchly atheistic, proudly proclaiming themselves “monasteries without God.”</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="8d5a">Amid
all the bad news from Gaza comes the story of Yocheved Lifshitz, 85.
Her grandson told Reuters, “For more than a decade, they took … sick
Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, not from the West Bank, from the Gaza
Strip every week from the Erez border to the hospitals in Israel to get
treatment for their disease, for cancer, for anything.” She and her
83-year old husband, Oded, were kidnapped from their home at the Nir Oz
kibbutz. She was released October 23. Oded remains captive.</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5497">How
do you begin to attend 112 funerals for those aged from less than one
to over 80, as they are doing in Kibbutz Be’eri? A Kibbutz Movement fund
has been set up to aid the emergency needs of these people, many of
whom are now themselves refugees. To donate, please go to <a class="af uh" href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241</a> or contact donate.kibbutz@tkz.co.il</p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="6d32"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjnZOpTvl51fVPY1qzVzLDzz1eB-sSZ50I116u36O99lqiSmdow7Y_WCXEsFfpfiUK0aiShKoqgjdkxBH4yDYvYfK1i7JyzyXtMgClypISFXJg0HQJa66f324Cev7XuRjYJ_XP7CYstBn418gRYeBr2uAGB8WHFMH2TvDZoofNyQk2qv84-tkdhTlImMeO/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjnZOpTvl51fVPY1qzVzLDzz1eB-sSZ50I116u36O99lqiSmdow7Y_WCXEsFfpfiUK0aiShKoqgjdkxBH4yDYvYfK1i7JyzyXtMgClypISFXJg0HQJa66f324Cev7XuRjYJ_XP7CYstBn418gRYeBr2uAGB8WHFMH2TvDZoofNyQk2qv84-tkdhTlImMeO/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></div>I
do not wish to enter into a debate as to the definition of terrorism. I
know Israel has pre-emptively begun air strikes in the occupied West
Bank where Murad lives. I only want to call for peace now and help those
in greatest need, urgently.<p></p><p class="pw-post-body-paragraph ve vf ol vg b ov wa vi vj oy wb vl vm vn wc vp vq vr wd vt vu vv we vx vy ug jr bj" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="5b93"><i>And thanks once more for your support of the Global Village Institute. Please feel free to share this post, or any part of it.</i></p><figure class="tj tk tl tm tn sx tg th paragraph-image"><div class="tg th xa"><picture><source type="image/webp"></source></picture></div></figure><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-55220455732573218192023-10-22T05:30:00.001-05:002023-10-22T05:30:00.137-05:00Barbarians at the Border<p><i><a href="">"</a>The migrant story is a little more nuanced than Elon Musk might have you believe.<a href="">"</a></i></p><p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4Yq7p7HIxTWOIcUSeaEg-obTxqPLcMzHSbjcGhLw3Dlm7Bj2T57XUQR8f3FJj1wNMlFK-BxXx3WML7pOwrMUE8i5sb0e8oFKEz2Tj4yp32CkfsaydEqQBSQuFIQH9YUUaV3Ljqi6rjDseVm1fDxMbXq6G673TZdfbS0oykLxbbjtqpomiYcSdTdV1x79P/s3072/oilkindergartenkibbutz.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="3072" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4Yq7p7HIxTWOIcUSeaEg-obTxqPLcMzHSbjcGhLw3Dlm7Bj2T57XUQR8f3FJj1wNMlFK-BxXx3WML7pOwrMUE8i5sb0e8oFKEz2Tj4yp32CkfsaydEqQBSQuFIQH9YUUaV3Ljqi6rjDseVm1fDxMbXq6G673TZdfbS0oykLxbbjtqpomiYcSdTdV1x79P/w640-h426/oilkindergartenkibbutz.jpeg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>A bullet-shuttered window of the entrance to a kindergarten is seen in Kibbutz Be'eri, Oct. 11, 2023. Baz Ratner/AP</em></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p><strong>About 200,000 years ago, </strong><span>a woman was born
whose mitochondrial DNA became the source DNA of every person alive
today. All of us are her descendants. At that time, the modern human
population was small—about 10,000-20,000. It would later ebb and flow
but never get as small as the 1,280 breeding-age individuals that </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory" rel="">our Simian ancestral population averaged in Africa</a><span> some 900,000 years ago. </span></p><p>Hominid
populations expanded to perhaps 2.5 million 70,000 years ago. Then we
hit a bottleneck. The Toba supereruption in Indonesia plunged global
mean temperature by 2.3°C (4.1 °F) and the cold lasted perhaps 1000
years. Deprived of food, our human ancestors were nearly extinguished. A
few thousand made it through that dark age. Genetic bottlenecks from
Toba have also been shown to have occurred in populations of chimps,
macaques, cheetahs, and tigers. </p><p><span>Analyses of mitochondrial
DNA have estimated that a major migration from Africa occurred during
the Toba catastrophe. Small bands crossed the Red Sea to Yemen and
followed the coast into the Levant (Sinai/Syria/Jordan/Persia),
Southeast Asia, and Oceania. Other trails branched off to the West, into
Europe. Along the way, </span><em>H. sapiens</em><span> interbred with Neanderthals and Denisovans and left a </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_human_migrations" rel="">sordid trail of extinguished megafauna</a><span> from the European steppes to Australia. </span></p><p><span>The
farther north they traveled, the more they adapted—tailoring clothing
from the pelts of fur-bearing animals, making shelters with hearths, and
storing meat in permafrost lockers. Human DNA extracted from
coprolites—fossilized feces—has been found in Oregon </span><a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-great-human-migration-13561/" rel="">dated to the last gradual glaciation 14,300 years ago</a><span>.
The last world regions to be permanently settled were the Pacific
Islands and the Arctic, inhabited during the 1st millennium CE.</span></p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-sfJrSC-JxYK-GwKiUVZMGwBaiyTmfOnnfUW13uaG8nTqkzXjICUa1TTDHuxly8oT8CJgnTnunanO7qq4Ez6dvDk14xkaMKmzDzFbzyvJzpLPO4b3DlT-WdB6n65Y3rDNhn5iZE2TeGa6MbcD1XIqnStET6cYMELvlIEVN-oWY54O_mMSKRjrHc4z6bhh/s1425/Natural_disasters_caused_by_climate_change.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="625" data-original-width="1425" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-sfJrSC-JxYK-GwKiUVZMGwBaiyTmfOnnfUW13uaG8nTqkzXjICUa1TTDHuxly8oT8CJgnTnunanO7qq4Ez6dvDk14xkaMKmzDzFbzyvJzpLPO4b3DlT-WdB6n65Y3rDNhn5iZE2TeGa6MbcD1XIqnStET6cYMELvlIEVN-oWY54O_mMSKRjrHc4z6bhh/w640-h280/Natural_disasters_caused_by_climate_change.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><figure><figcaption class="image-caption"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span>Regions where more natural disasters will occur due to climate change by KVDP - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, </span><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=15840672" rel="">https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=15840672</a></span></i></figcaption></figure></td></tr></tbody></table></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span></span>Nomads at Heart</h3><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§nomads-at-heart"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/137883105/nomads-at-heart"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Climate and human migration have a long, interrelated history. Great migrations include the </span><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2019/02/sargon-and-seapeoples.html" rel="">Sea Peoples’ attempts to enter ancient Egypt</a><span>,
Indo-European migrations to Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia
during the Bronze Age, the Bantu and Oromo migrations across Africa,
Barbarian invasions during the Roman Empire, the Great Migration from
England of the 1630s, the Great Migration of African Americans from the
rural American South to the industrial north during 1920–1950, the waves
of Irish and Italians crossing the Atlantic in the 19th century, and 14
million Hindus, Sikhs, and Muslims displaced by the partition of India.
In the U.S. in the late 20th century, the number of migrants
approximately equaled the number of native-born in the labor market.
While many of these migrations stem from conflicts, others are
climate-related and indeed, </span><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2022/03/a-humantsunami.html" rel="">some of those wars were climate-related</a><span>.</span></span></span></div><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/137883105/nomads-at-heart"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span> </span></span></span></div><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/137883105/nomads-at-heart"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1ibp63cvQm8vX4OSdrGV69d49OOwQYs-IW07gyU25b4SclHLP1Zn4ffzFEXRtKiHZIrCRT6-6WceuPsaaxk8OuKz4dmYdEZUwph8KOisG0uDzL6eG_EhDZZLDM9F9Yabh8az71UiwlfdGbaail32X7H2Km-MX9N2uh7bci2y7NR37zhkI-sWIQB1QswV-/s889/FullerDuck_human_migrations.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="889" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1ibp63cvQm8vX4OSdrGV69d49OOwQYs-IW07gyU25b4SclHLP1Zn4ffzFEXRtKiHZIrCRT6-6WceuPsaaxk8OuKz4dmYdEZUwph8KOisG0uDzL6eG_EhDZZLDM9F9Yabh8az71UiwlfdGbaail32X7H2Km-MX9N2uh7bci2y7NR37zhkI-sWIQB1QswV-/w400-h253/FullerDuck_human_migrations.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /></span></span></span></div><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/137883105/nomads-at-heart"><p><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">In the above map, Africa, at the start of all migration, is top left.
South America is at the far right. Migration patterns are based on
studies of mitochondrial DNA. Dashed lines are hypothetical migrations.
The numbers represent thousand years before present. The blue line
represents area covered in ice or tundra during the last great ice age.
The letters are the mitochondrial DNA haplogroups (pure motherly
lineages). Haplogroups can be used to define genetic populations and are
often geographically oriented. For example, the following are common
divisions for mtDNA haplogroups:</span></p><h4 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>African: L, L1, L2, L3</span><br /><span>Near Eastern: J, N</span><br /><span>Southern European: J, K</span><br /><span>General European: H, V</span><br /><span>Northern European: T, U, X</span><br /><span>Asian: A, B, C, D, E, F, G (note: M is composed of C, D, E, and G)</span><br /><span>Native American: A, B, C, D, and sometimes X.</span></span></span></h4><h5><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">The
letters I, J, and K shown in Europe are apparently included by mistake,
as they refer to Y-DNA haplogroups. The dashed path for X, stopping in
Iceland, gestures at the "Solutrean hypothesis", an idea discussed in
the popular media at the time the map was made but mostly discredited
since.</span></h5><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Recent Events</span></h3><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="text-align: left;"><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§recent-events"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/137883105/recent-events"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span>The </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Arab_Spring" rel="">Arab Spring wave of pro-democracy protests</a><span>
in 2010-11 followed a precipitous rise in the global cost of food
after drought-related crop failures, deregulated financial speculation,
and a </span><a href="https://necsi.edu/food-crisis" rel="">mandated corn-to-ethanol fuel policy</a><span>.
That in turn led to the 2016 migrant deluge from Afghanistan and Syria
when 1.2 million first-time asylum-seekers arrived in Europe. They are
coming still. </span></span></div></div></div></h3><blockquote><p><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span>This exponential disruption is just the beginning of what David Wallace-Wells, in his book </span><em>The Uninhabitable Earth, </em><span>calls
“The Great Dying:” a worldwide economic decline, sharply deteriorated
living conditions, disruption to basic government functions and
widespread hunger. Looking deeper still into the future, the predictions
are even more dire. </span></span></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span>— </span><em>The New York Times,</em><span> April 10, 2019</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span>“Managed
realignment,” or “managed retreat,” is one response. In the United
States, this often takes the form of "buyout" programs, in which the
government acquires and relocates or demolishes at-risk properties. In
the UK, there are recent examples of farms and cultivated fields being </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managed_retreat" rel="">intentionally returned to marshland</a><span>
and sea bird habitats. My own ancestral home in Romney Marsh, Kent (c.
1200-1635) may become one such program, with the arches of Norman church
ruins slowly disappearing under the rising English Channel. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEJQD7FI6bUxf3VM2RMMlsFTq0wpEsdAw_Gn2bzDw9Lbqyi88bcRiCnaxVYdavVnNI4Uw4HZ3mKRlBBHbjHsTMle1hbl7Yz-rkmHv_MT_H5Mkgscv5KL884HV_yS9QPRAJ7n623vSK3LOt_Pa_pmVLKLdw5Piw-cpxxID9ynP6bZvirsm_RDgqVyKYAcrq/s2424/EU%20sea%20level%20rise.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1434" data-original-width="2424" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEJQD7FI6bUxf3VM2RMMlsFTq0wpEsdAw_Gn2bzDw9Lbqyi88bcRiCnaxVYdavVnNI4Uw4HZ3mKRlBBHbjHsTMle1hbl7Yz-rkmHv_MT_H5Mkgscv5KL884HV_yS9QPRAJ7n623vSK3LOt_Pa_pmVLKLdw5Piw-cpxxID9ynP6bZvirsm_RDgqVyKYAcrq/w640-h378/EU%20sea%20level%20rise.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Rising sea levels in the 22nd century. On an ice-free Earth, Istanbul,
Baghdad, St. Petersburg, Helsinki, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Amsterdam and
London are all under water.</span></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Few places have this foresight.<span> In 2021,
storms, floods, landslides, wildfires, and droughts triggered 23.7
million internal displacements, 80% of them women. By 2023 many of those
same internal displacements had matured into external displacements as
valiant husbands and young adult children found the money to escape
horrid conditions in refugee camps and successfully outmigrated their
remaining families.</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that an average of 20 million people are
forcibly displaced from their countries by weather-related events every
year. The most common projection is that the world will have 150–300
million people displaced by climate change by 2050. That is a 10x uptick
over the next 30 years.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span>First, let’s be clear. Immigration
is a problem. So is emigration. Climate change will make both
catastrophically worse. Most reliable estimates of the carrying
capacity of the planet by mid-century fall in the range of 1 to 2
billion. By “reliable,” I mean science-based and factoring in the
effects of rapid climate change on agriculture, water supplies, sea
level rise, vector-borne disease, and biodiversity destruction. Some,
like the </span><em>Limits to Growth</em><span> sequelae, even take microplastics into account through a morbid pollution equation.</span></span></span></p><blockquote><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span>Contrast
that 1 billion with today’s 7.9 billion people, topping 8 billion by
2024, and projected, but by no means certain, to hit 9 billion in 2042.
Like any exponential curve, this hockey stick began tilting upward
after the Second World War and continues to incline more steeply by the
year, abbreviating its doubling time with each generation. And yet, on
the human evolutionary time scale, </span><em>Homo colossus</em><span> is a relatively recent phenomenon.</span></span></span></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span>—</span><a href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2019/04/coping-with-katsaridaphobia.html" rel="">Coping with Katsaridaphobia</a><span> (</span><em>The Great Change,</em><span> April, 2019) </span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span>National
and international courts have been besieged with cases for refuge
brought by “climate change refugees.” Almost universally these have been
rejected, but in January 2020, the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_migrant" rel="">UN Human Rights Committee ruled</a><span>
that it was a human rights violation to force refugees to return “to
countries where climate change poses an immediate threat.” The European
Union has yet to adopt any continent-wide convention on the status of
climate migrants, even though it is already housing an estimated 700,000
of them. The USA flatly rejects that as a condition for acceptance. </span></span></span></p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">The Musk Mission</h3><p><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxLAVcyiTQIWDtTAeM7mqYpT8Aa90YQ1QdVI7cZSMXv9W0sKiJ0COod2kzEp6nlEokcgS1vJs2Si3LQQfuwsi8K2x_eUnzbvLTcP1Nkk8T_zYxGpqWHhq4cppTNXFH7U8KvAEi8aV6L7NApd6qPKwLxdLDtedoCKgDNvqoBETh8gbwaQ3dUzFZsqrhLIEt/s616/EaglePassTweet.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="616" data-original-width="534" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxLAVcyiTQIWDtTAeM7mqYpT8Aa90YQ1QdVI7cZSMXv9W0sKiJ0COod2kzEp6nlEokcgS1vJs2Si3LQQfuwsi8K2x_eUnzbvLTcP1Nkk8T_zYxGpqWHhq4cppTNXFH7U8KvAEi8aV6L7NApd6qPKwLxdLDtedoCKgDNvqoBETh8gbwaQ3dUzFZsqrhLIEt/s320/EaglePassTweet.png" width="277" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Last week he visited Eagle Pass, Texas, for a firsthand
look at the unfolding migration crisis, and streamed it live on his
social-media platform, X (formerly known as Twitter), so that his
hundred and fifty million followers could “see what’s really going on.” </span></span></p><p style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span>—</span><em><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-border-doesnt-need-elon-musks-citizen-journalism" rel="">The New Yorker</a></em></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">On October 1st, Elon Musk<span> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/i/status/1708638309964988777" rel="">posted three videos</a><span>
blaming President Biden for the latest migrant deluge, thereby forcing
the president to renege on a campaign pledge and resume work on the
Great Southern Wall (a useless diversion </span><a href="https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/publications/earthonline/endangered-earth-online-no880.html" rel="">threatening 93 endangered species</a><span>).
Musk is calling his trendy long-form video “citizen journalism” in
contrast with “legacy media,” which presumedly misses the story because
of editorial biases. Musk’s filter-free rant resembles journalism in
name only. Fact-check: as of August, 3.6 million crossers have been
returned to Latin America </span><a href="https://apple.news/AcLCA307RRZKhektNdp5t5A" rel="">since Biden took office</a><span>. Contrast that with 57,437 </span><a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration-fy2020" rel="">returned during President Trump’s last year in office</a><span>. </span></span></span></p><blockquote><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Musk’s
video repeats the same thinking that has mired debates about the border
for the past several decades: partisans insisting on their truth about
the border, unwilling to find common ground to pass comprehensive
reform.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">***</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Had he wanted to, Musk could have spoken with
immigration attorneys who advocate tirelessly for their clients, despite
knowing that many of their applications to stay in the United States
will be rejected. He could have shown the bustling border towns where
the most visible border crossers are U.S. citizens entering Mexico to
have a meal, see a doctor, or buy artwork, and Mexican citizens heading
north to shop, work, and attend school. He could have shown the
undocumented agriculture and garment workers toiling to feed and clothe
us, or the environmental, political, and economic catastrophes that lead
migrants to make the difficult decision to uproot their lives and break
apart their families. These are also unfiltered truths about the
border. They wouldn’t have diminished Musk’s point that there is a
problem that needs to be solved, but they would have given his many
millions of followers a better understanding of the gravity of the task
at hand.</span></span></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: small;"><em style="font-weight: normal;"><span>—</span><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-border-doesnt-need-elon-musks-citizen-journalism" rel="">The New Yorker</a></em></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The
people of Central America and the Caribbean are faced with worsening
weather events that will only exacerbate this issue. A “Dry Corridor”
extends from Panama, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala to
Mexico. It is home to 181 million people, 2.25% of the world
population, half of them subsistence farmers.</span></span></p><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRtU3576heB3uL1Pn_x3-hzCS_RP8ZfEnELvJnwMuVlpC_hdHO4fu4V52J8SMPkpuylcDhH5Vq0UeoqiwpLdB-rwhWOnW14FR3dioUu_56i9An9qwDRh7h61SP2p24eYoPuygA7hptkl1taQ9lv7PdMh59qsUOXJ9-Uqcx1wNo2oSIQEdvXOa7KEpSg8Ma/s850/Central-America-and-its-population-distribution-modified-from-CIESIN-et-al-2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="654" data-original-width="850" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRtU3576heB3uL1Pn_x3-hzCS_RP8ZfEnELvJnwMuVlpC_hdHO4fu4V52J8SMPkpuylcDhH5Vq0UeoqiwpLdB-rwhWOnW14FR3dioUu_56i9An9qwDRh7h61SP2p24eYoPuygA7hptkl1taQ9lv7PdMh59qsUOXJ9-Uqcx1wNo2oSIQEdvXOa7KEpSg8Ma/w400-h308/Central-America-and-its-population-distribution-modified-from-CIESIN-et-al-2011.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Central
America (modified from CIESIN et al., 2011). Volcanoes are identified
by white triangles and archeological sites by purple stars. </span></i></span></span></span></h3></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">In 2015, due to the strongest El Niño in recorded history, hundreds
of thousands of Central American farmers lost a portion or the entirety
of their crops. In Guatemala, the drought caused a food shortage that
left 3 million people struggling to feed themselves. They are especially
vulnerable to the meandering polar vortex, brought on by the loss of
the Arctic sea ice. Hard frosts can kill a whole season’s worth of crops
in a night. New pests are becoming more prevalent at lower elevations
with decreased rainfall and overuse of Green Revolution agrochemicals.
In 2018, half of the 94,000 Guatemalans deported from the United States
and México were from these western highlands.</span><p><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9AiXrNxA5_uwLfxZnNG6_BAOt0rE-qqDfJnl0MfhZARy4CkZTh5sP4_bXjQqUXHXT4GJZjh43ZwS8TQGVvy2NHKDysOoMvZ4Afo0oQMmkN1ERitgIBo5ZSlijoU5Y-7BOXj38qQlVmNayYuBsqezOUeCYxKCn3CPGsUxrA1ugCeFWnk_5afb4Yr0HWQJZ/s2424/NA%20Sea%20Level%20Rise.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1552" data-original-width="2424" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9AiXrNxA5_uwLfxZnNG6_BAOt0rE-qqDfJnl0MfhZARy4CkZTh5sP4_bXjQqUXHXT4GJZjh43ZwS8TQGVvy2NHKDysOoMvZ4Afo0oQMmkN1ERitgIBo5ZSlijoU5Y-7BOXj38qQlVmNayYuBsqezOUeCYxKCn3CPGsUxrA1ugCeFWnk_5afb4Yr0HWQJZ/w400-h256/NA%20Sea%20Level%20Rise.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">The same El Niño
cycle caused Honduras to lose 72% of its corn and 75% of its bean
production. World Bank predicts that by 2050, worsening droughts and
flooding from climate change could displace up to 4 million people in
the region.</span></div></div></div></h3><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">The Best of the Best<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§the-best-of-the-best"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/137883105/the-best-of-the-best"><span> </span></div><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/137883105/the-best-of-the-best"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span><b>Those
who are willing to risk the lives</b> of their families to uproot and cross
dangerous borders—natural and otherwise—usually want only a few basics:
a roof overhead, warmth in winter and coolth in summer, access to food
and water, and opportunity to work. History shows that most go well
beyond acquiring these simple prerequisites. They innovate. Their
children excel. They build companies like Apple, Amazon, AT&T, Big
Lots!, Capital One, eBay, Kraft, and Pfizer. </span><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2022/07/26/most-us-billion-dollar-startups-have-an-immigrant-founder/?sh=3e7bfeb6f3a3" rel="">Forbes reports</a><span>
most (319 of 582) billion-dollar startups in the US, with a collective
value of $1.2 trillion, were founded by immigrants. Two-thirds were </span><a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90202816/some-of-the-u-s-s-biggest-companies-are-founded-by-immigrants" rel="">started by immigrant 2d Gen</a><span>.
One should include among those immigrant founders the African immigrant
who launched PayPal, Tesla, Starlink, SpaceX and the Boring Company and
now runs X (Twitter) with its citizen journalism anti-immigration
slant. </span></span></span></div></div></div></h3><p><span>Tyson Yunkaporta, author of </span><em>Sand Talk,</em><span>
speaks eloquently about how experiences of ‘disaster' and
transformation can bring out the best in people. “Most of us have been
displaced from those cultures of origin,” he writes, “ a global diaspora
of refugees severed not only from land but from the sheer genius that
comes from belonging in symbiotic relation to it.” And yet, that is
precisely what immigrants do when given the basics—reconnect to place. </span></p><p><span>Yunkaporta says something else in </span><em>Sand Talk</em><span>
that is worth remembering. “The war between good and evil is in reality
an imposition of stupidity and simplicity over wisdom and complexity.”</span></p><p>The
war on the border—and all the anti-immigration rhetoric—is the
imposition of stupidity and simplicity. Can we not see a massive tidal
wave forming out at the horizon? It will not be enough to build seawalls
or retreat to higher ground (although we’ll do both of those). We need
to buffer the surge with climate-adaptive, regenerative agricultural
surpluses, refugee shelters and work programs, schools, and clinics. We
need to stop winging and setting political fires by stoking people’s
fears. That doesn’t help anything, Marsha Blackburn and Ted Cruz. We
need to recognize that there is power in slowing the birthrate and
building new economies on migration flows. There lies the innovation.
There lies hope. Maybe even of a kind that will save our collective
derriere.</p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em></em></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap" style="text-align: center;"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p><i>The
Great Change is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts
and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</i></p></div></div></div><p class="cta-caption"><span></span></p><!--more--> <p></p><p class="cta-caption"></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEwNzY5aa1oT3m5UzvHs3YZIlKiAIHbexpYpjQpR1sTQDsJDNr8eHcB4xHSQznq6wr7eF6Q6HsyvOML0GJEM1_Knic6Ji7vXHR3B5i6_EwLMbWW92-V2F5JX-Lx-nggbWic58MqTfgSQliRC2a-LO-4qh-fUxTSt0H57mV_-23QNTPzQj32cib-7C4qfUt/s3072/Beeri-Kibbutz-8.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="3072" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEwNzY5aa1oT3m5UzvHs3YZIlKiAIHbexpYpjQpR1sTQDsJDNr8eHcB4xHSQznq6wr7eF6Q6HsyvOML0GJEM1_Knic6Ji7vXHR3B5i6_EwLMbWW92-V2F5JX-Lx-nggbWic58MqTfgSQliRC2a-LO-4qh-fUxTSt0H57mV_-23QNTPzQj32cib-7C4qfUt/w400-h266/Beeri-Kibbutz-8.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><figure><figcaption class="image-caption"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Be’eri Kibbutz, October 11, 2023. ABC News</i></span></figcaption></figure></td></tr></tbody></table><strong>Meanwhile, let’s end this war.</strong><span> I am going to pause my weekly fundraising pitch for </span><a href="https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=Z2TR34WU64K24" rel="">migrants on the Green Road</a><span>
escaping conflict in Ukraine to find sanctuary in distant ecovillages
and on permaculture farms, in order that I may bring this appeal for
peace in the Middle East.</span><p></p><p>I first visited Murad AlKufash at
his family farm in the West Bank in 1991 when, as a teenager, he was
just beginning to study permaculture. He was learning from my friend Jan
Bang, founder of the Green Kibbutz movement, and at that time, one
could freely cross the Green Line without checkpoints. I returned a
number of times to Murad’s village, Marda, to teach permaculture and
ecovillage design and also brought Murad to our Ecovillage Training
Center in Tennessee. GVI also helped bring him to Copenhagen for the
COP15 UN Climate Summit.<br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="clear: right; float: right; font-size: large; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="842" data-original-width="1498" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnGeXAp7nNF8ctHj9f0TJZfHzSGXG6jql4iAJdS4cdvnRFeRyawrpPWfRXv6dcBAUeZS7OOEN29Y3tpXoLbC2ONm49S0IEXfHag_eeaCnEjF3ismItEHvQZ8XbncY68mA7-0wNbhdInWQhgFCJvvqTs35mbynBKVvqzx5lv29SqDv_0KoLgGSB0DNqiReW/w400-h225/MuradTheFarm2022.jpg" width="400" /></span><span></span>In 2022, Murad visited The Farm again to learn more about biochar. He told us the Marda Permaculture Farm we visited has had a rough go of it in recent years. Several times the IDF has bulldozed the gardens and orchards and set fire to his hoop houses. Pigs from the illegal settlement up the hill are released to wreck his garden at night but he has put up ingenious fences made from old tires to keep them out. Soldiers and settlers have cut and burned thousand-year-old olive groves that his family had tended. Still, he continues his nonviolent "Peace through Permaculture" workshops and demonstration dryland farming without complaint. All are welcome. I am grateful to say that we've been able to channel many thousand dollars of donations through our tax exemption since the start of Covid, when of course, most Palestinians had access to neither vaccines nor advanced care, and he had to suspend workshops and apprenticeships that were his mainstay.</p><p><span>Our
permaculture partners in the UK set up a crowdfunding campaign that is
still active and I would encourage anyone wishing to support peace in
the Middle East through practical demonstrations like food and water
security and self-sovereignty to </span><a href="https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/marda-farm" rel="">contribute</a><span>. </span></p><p><span> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1fE8Vf7-kJk2hGxwR8TwOalSRnF7Iat1ehRcPZHdfHWzhZt5dGPfOaczdpBTJOazA4U0-MOdVJj-cXUnlvAhT2hspT2_aEivVls0KGl54d_KXN2DFkivTeecCX4XiTEelil2mlrh40RfJDgh-dbPAb-_jTJmUzt2AMzrkTZRVsFQVczd0VjFVAL15dMSW/s936/mardafunder.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="936" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1fE8Vf7-kJk2hGxwR8TwOalSRnF7Iat1ehRcPZHdfHWzhZt5dGPfOaczdpBTJOazA4U0-MOdVJj-cXUnlvAhT2hspT2_aEivVls0KGl54d_KXN2DFkivTeecCX4XiTEelil2mlrh40RfJDgh-dbPAb-_jTJmUzt2AMzrkTZRVsFQVczd0VjFVAL15dMSW/w400-h271/mardafunder.png" width="400" /></a></div> <p></p><p><span>Going back to the early 1990s, Global Village has also been
supporting the Green Kibbutz Network. Just to remind those unfamiliar
with the history, the </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/world/middleeast/israel-protests-judicial-crisis.html" rel="">migration of idealistic Zionist socialists</a><span> out of Russia into Trans-Jordan began with the first utopian experiment, Kvuzat Deganya, in 1910. From then until the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakba" rel="">Nakba</a><span> in 1948, and even after, Kibbutzniks maintained friendly relationships with </span><a href="https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/seventy-five-years-after-the-nakba-what-does-the-future-hold/" rel="">indigenous Arab populations</a><span>. One of the Kvuzat founders wrote:</span></p><blockquote><p>We
knew more and more certainly that the ways of the old settlements were
not for us… with Jews on top and Arabs working for them; anyway, we
thought that there shouldn't be employers and employed at all. There
must be a better way.</p></blockquote><p><span>By their collective labor
and as a refuge from migrant politics, the kibbutznik population grew
to 129,000 in 1989 (up from 12 in 1910). Devoted to </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibbutz" rel="">gender, race and ethnic equality</a><span>, some were secular, even staunchly atheistic, proudly proclaiming themselves "monasteries without God.” </span></p><p><span>Now, knowing that, understand this. Twenty-three kibbutzim were swept up in the Hamas massacre and </span><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/israels-ground-zero-beeri-kibbutz-bloodiest-scenes-hamas/story?id=103936668" rel="">rampage of destruction of October 7, 2023</a><span>.
Hundreds of kibbutz residents were murdered or abducted. Hundreds of
buildings and infrastructure have been destroyed. The kibbutzim
affected: Kerem Shalom, Sufa, Holit, Nir Yitzhak, Magen, Nir Oz, Nirim,
Ein Ha’Shlosha, Kisufim, Re’im, Be’eri, Nahal Oz, Kfar Aza, Mefalsim,
Erez, Nir Am, Gevim, Or Ha’Ner, Bror Hayil, Yad Mordechai, Zikim,
Karmiya, and Gvar’am. </span></p><p><span>Survivors are in a state of
shock. How do you begin to attend 112 funerals for those aged from less
than one to over 80, as they are doing in Kibbutz Be’eri? A Kibbutz
Movement fund has been set up to aid the emergency needs of these
people, many of whom are now themselves refugees. To donate please go to
</span><a href="https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241" rel="">https://www.jgive.com/new/en/usd/donation-targets/110241</a><span> or contact donate.kibbutz@tkz.co.il</span></p><p><span>I
do not wish to enter into a debate as to the definition of terrorism.
Yes, I know that at least 38 Palestinian children were killed by the
occupying army in the West Bank in 2023, </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/4/israeli-settlers-storm-al-aqsa-mosque-complex-on-fifth-day-of-sukkot" rel="">prior to the October 5th storming and desecration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque</a><span> by Jews under protection of IDF and the October 7th response by Hamas. I know about the </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/what-do-young-palestinians-oslo-accords-30-years-on" rel="">indignities suffered</a><span> under </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/06/israel-imposing-apartheid-on-palestinians-says-former-mossad-chief" rel="">internationally condoned apartheid</a><span>. I only want to call for peace now and help those in greatest need, urgently.</span></p><p>And thanks once more for your support of the Global Village Institute. Please feel free to share this post, or any part of it.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV1LEZhFVuDnJjZYPqNqS3i2RGxa-jmwnoJzbeGjgwfHa4LCPJzZImUYGfgHYOyF2H0d1H5fLlk72F9PTbNScYOewc8nBxgWMTjK-KYl5lE3LMKnyEehefNdYvSa3uGn3qY4OCTzC9Etclxcq_6GhPNDFZRxgg7PtHOtG2IVhGOjCiCRaG2nE_sL1jEaBl/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV1LEZhFVuDnJjZYPqNqS3i2RGxa-jmwnoJzbeGjgwfHa4LCPJzZImUYGfgHYOyF2H0d1H5fLlk72F9PTbNScYOewc8nBxgWMTjK-KYl5lE3LMKnyEehefNdYvSa3uGn3qY4OCTzC9Etclxcq_6GhPNDFZRxgg7PtHOtG2IVhGOjCiCRaG2nE_sL1jEaBl/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></div><em>Help me get my blog posted every week. All Patreon donations and
Blogger or Substack subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how
we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village
Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on
Patreon get an autographed book off each first press run. Please help if
you can.</em><p><span>Thank you for reading </span><em>The Great Change.</em></p></div><p>
</p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-7964070155644818232023-10-15T06:30:00.001-05:002023-10-15T06:30:00.143-05:00Miss Hottest September Ever<div style="text-align: center;"><a href="">"</a><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">It was the best of times, it was the worst of times<br /></em><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"> — Dickens</em><a href="">"</a></div><div style="text-align: center;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_w20_2aqJ9n4NOpqvrAEKTppA3ZxSItS2ZQNsHnQE0xqdq9mdzIRDZaydhFCt-pmCQlPBOElcEG91qATDbDQp7nxQkbOwGtzhFbEqM5JmNMYBdxykBAIwR9aWEhOEFRyM22xjMPhcnE4RHLDUFps7GP9vjHfe-qZwBgaI5xwVfzXlz1SMej1URavKJsej/s1947/OilMissHOTTESTseptember.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1170" data-original-width="1947" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_w20_2aqJ9n4NOpqvrAEKTppA3ZxSItS2ZQNsHnQE0xqdq9mdzIRDZaydhFCt-pmCQlPBOElcEG91qATDbDQp7nxQkbOwGtzhFbEqM5JmNMYBdxykBAIwR9aWEhOEFRyM22xjMPhcnE4RHLDUFps7GP9vjHfe-qZwBgaI5xwVfzXlz1SMej1URavKJsej/w640-h384/OilMissHOTTESTseptember.jpg" width="640" /></a></strong></div><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><br /></strong><p></p><p class="graf graf--p"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">I suppose many of us</strong> are going through the same kind of existential angst I am when I think about climate change. On the one hand, I have a granddaughter who graduates High School this year and I can remember how large the world was for me at that age — the opportunities, the possible futures, young love, the sheer exuberance of living. It is the best of times.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8760">But then I swing back to a very dark secret — something one can’t bring up in polite company. It was the first thought I had when my son told me they were expecting a baby. What will her life be like, I wondered, in 2040, 2060, and 2090? She will reach my present age in 2082, assuming she can survive what I know is coming. Her world will not look like the General Motors Futurama of the <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurama_(New_York_World%27s_Fair)" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurama_%28New_York_World%27s_Fair%29" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">1939 World’s Fair</a>, with fully autonomous cars, vertical farms for artificially produced crops, and rooftop platforms on which to park personal flying machines or land your jet pack.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="d8d5">It would require enormous luck for the 2082 future just to resemble as happy an outcome as <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_New_York_World%27s_Fair" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_New_York_World%27s_Fair" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">the Ford pavilion of the 1964 World’s Fair</a>, where fairgoers rode through a world of Audio-Animatronic cave-men (the exhibit became Disneyland’s “Primeval World” railroad fantasy ride in 1966).</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="365f">There are so many converging crises that I take comfort in recalling that I had read “The Future as a Way of Life” in <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Horizon</em> magazine the summer I graduated from High School. In that piece, Alvin Toffler set out only a fraction of the changes that actually came true during my life. He labeled the phenom, “<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Shock" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Shock" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Future Shock</a>,” by which he meant too much change in too short a period of time.</p><p class="graf graf--p graf--startsWithDoubleQuote" name="801b">“Too much change in too short a period of time” aptly describes where we find ourselves in 2023. There is urgent public policy debate about how best to respond to the extreme weather changes that clearly show the Anthropocene having traversed planetary biogeophysical boundaries (although <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">even that is disputed</a> by some). We can ignore the deniers. They suffer understandably from normalcy bias, optimism bias, priming bias, confirmation bias, framing bias, anchoring bias, loss aversion, regressive conservatism <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">(</em><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">post hoc ergo propter hoc</em></a><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">)</em>, and sick gut bacteria.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="b68c">Engaging with them only impedes progress toward actual remedies.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="b94a">It can be just as difficult to engage with climate believers. There are ongoing, active debates about the best solutions. There are those who believe we should throw our entire climate budget at single strategies like artificial trees or electrification. There are others who believe remediation efforts like carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management are distracting us from the real need to end fossil carbon extraction, switch to renewable energy, and become much more efficient and less wasteful with our consumerism, <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">ie:</em> a circular economy or donut economics. They argue that solutions like carbon dioxide removal (whether mechanical or natural) allow polluters to keep polluting.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e0a5">There are those — including reputable scientists — who say that if we just stop pumping more pollution into the atmosphere the natural decay processes of carbon dioxide, methane and the other greenhouse gases will allow earth systems time to recover. That brings me to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z/" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">my first chart</a>, from Jorgen Randers and Ulrich Goluke, published in <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Nature</em> November 12, 2020.</p><h3 class="graf graf--h4" name="7d96" style="text-align: left;">Chart Number One</h3><h4 class="graf graf--h4" name="7d96"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinGn-A1f2ZGw_mkxr3xpKwXbpLmJvCYiUkl9B4V8ZyRyLlNNUxSkyVLSHZWqcttDe-YnztkAjDun_37tIswLTanNCeTkDVUUwRXEvip7hQ3x4Q9e6tdSDGb2v08RHRBdyHF1j9PIOeIAclgu1mXCNPoW0u0bt8jAZWGsXcT-tqyR7LRb9MKgtW8lw7_c_t/s835/Figure1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="835" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinGn-A1f2ZGw_mkxr3xpKwXbpLmJvCYiUkl9B4V8ZyRyLlNNUxSkyVLSHZWqcttDe-YnztkAjDun_37tIswLTanNCeTkDVUUwRXEvip7hQ3x4Q9e6tdSDGb2v08RHRBdyHF1j9PIOeIAclgu1mXCNPoW0u0bt8jAZWGsXcT-tqyR7LRb9MKgtW8lw7_c_t/w400-h288/Figure1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div></h4><p class="graf graf--p"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Randers and Goluke show definitively</strong> that whether we get to zero emissions by the end of this century (Scenario 1) or cut to zero instantly (Scenario 2), the decay-chain drawdown effect is only transitory, a temporary decline in this century followed by a continued rise for hundreds of years thereafter. Sea level rise would be entirely unabated.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ed2d">The reason that happens is best illustrated by three other charts <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z/" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">in the same paper</a>:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW9MI-oV2Sa2IRFnQ1t5Gh6mx5GBpAm5pnYbdISsLp71UP8Wr9noZ7aBSnAmgBmtTsP6281c1d5UWkw4IHx_I6yvfSNsLthmxbuu7V4Nh_OOBMlhDYlH1KiQLvqGIx5h3Mp09I7ikVQR87KedQCPWBbLpEwzuTVY7H-KYbtXRCl0-qLd8psXBCEgL3jfs_/s2496/3charts.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="2496" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW9MI-oV2Sa2IRFnQ1t5Gh6mx5GBpAm5pnYbdISsLp71UP8Wr9noZ7aBSnAmgBmtTsP6281c1d5UWkw4IHx_I6yvfSNsLthmxbuu7V4Nh_OOBMlhDYlH1KiQLvqGIx5h3Mp09I7ikVQR87KedQCPWBbLpEwzuTVY7H-KYbtXRCl0-qLd8psXBCEgL3jfs_/w640-h149/3charts.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p class="graf graf--p" name="22e0">We have already crossed thresholds, or tipping points, for three climate stability elements: permafrost, albedo, and sea level rise. All of these elements are in quest of a new stasis, but that will not be reached for many centuries, possibly many millennia, or longer — millions of years. In other words, tipping elements like permafrost melt are now self-sustaining and will keep increasing until, in the case of permafrost, it runs out of ice to melt. That drops surface reflectivity and allows more solar heat to be captured each day, resulting in steadily rising surface temperature and sea level. While the albedo (reflectivity) picture may resolve in 500 years (after all glaciers are gone), the other contributing, self-sustaining, factors are just getting started and will still be undergoing acceleration long after 500 years. To envision this, the authors coded ESCIMO (“eskimo”), a system dynamics model that includes representations of the world’s atmosphere, oceans, forests (and other land types), biomass — and their interactions. Recall that some of these same authors worked on World One, an MIT computer program commissioned by the Club of Rome in 1973 to model global sustainability. (Instead, it <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/in-1973-an-mit-computer-predicted-the-end-of-civilization-so-far-its-on-target/" href="https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/in-1973-an-mit-computer-predicted-the-end-of-civilization-so-far-its-on-target/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">predicted that by 2040</a> our civilization would end.) ESCIMO now reveals:</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="5606"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">This warming is the combined effect of three physical processes: (1) declining surface albedo (driven by melting of the Arctic ice cover), (2) increasing amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and (3) changes in the concentrations of the GHG in the atmosphere (driven by the absorption of CO2 in biomass and oceans, and emission of carbon (CH4 and CO2) from thawing permafrost). This self-sustained, in the sense of no further GHG emissions, thawing process is a causally determined, physical process that evolves over time. It starts with the man-made warming up to the 1950s, leading to a rise in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere — further lifting the temperature, causing increasing release of carbon from thawing permafrost, and simultaneously a decline in the surface albedo as the ice and snow covers melts. To stop the self-sustained warming in ESCIMO, enormous amounts of CO2 have to be extracted from the atmosphere.</em></blockquote><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnBGqgqk7a9KkcDNwdCwhCUUaVM0AvB3HAOxcycCQg43VjtgzkAHHgpbflfylzLD7LerbgvUq8utkmue-1iaSVctvkh7qbRMrA0D1xK5jOjzdWTAEzhO9TrNLB6Zlqb7zqmNOy5qodqPlMIv_bcKiBNURX6V15cNt4ROLhkHpCioi8rQs581UIXfObQB1j/s802/space-quote-the-hitchhikers-guide-to-the-galaxy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="802" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnBGqgqk7a9KkcDNwdCwhCUUaVM0AvB3HAOxcycCQg43VjtgzkAHHgpbflfylzLD7LerbgvUq8utkmue-1iaSVctvkh7qbRMrA0D1xK5jOjzdWTAEzhO9TrNLB6Zlqb7zqmNOy5qodqPlMIv_bcKiBNURX6V15cNt4ROLhkHpCioi8rQs581UIXfObQB1j/w640-h400/space-quote-the-hitchhikers-guide-to-the-galaxy.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><section class="section section--body" name="0931"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="2c0d"><i>This is a free post, because we need as many people as possible to know that adopting personal do’s or don’ts matter and there are many strategies that can help. These posts keep coming only because good people dig deep and choose the modest voluntary subscription fee options from their hearts. Thank you!</i></blockquote></div></div></section><section class="section section--body" name="a13e"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><h3 class="graf graf--h4" name="8e38" style="text-align: left;">Chart Number Two</h3><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="ded0"><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>T</b></span><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">he Copernicus Climate Change Service</strong> (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, routinely publishes <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-september-2023-unprecedented-temperature-anomalies" href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-september-2023-unprecedented-temperature-anomalies" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">monthly climate bulletins</a> reporting on the changes observed in global surface air temperature, sea ice cover and hydrological variables. All the reported findings are based on computer-generated analyses using billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1e6e">Here is C3S’s picture of the temperature anomaly we experienced last month:</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1e6e"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvTMO3UvD5WqHiDDTnzzR3bTq0IfccEGbgqjnA_IUfx4xYs7Mvldk6jD6FL4-5T7OseWv4vGsrr8T0rzUy7ylBzEsW7MpV-PyRixlzD-toDhv3KYgEAxzDrEqBIdQ8LT1ZcEGlZhtrBosFjvx1MGRKLAHVm2bUEDf9IrYfNh6TzvidqqpX-DtrCYaQFgLw/s2550/plot_era5_monthly_anomalies_2t_global_september_1940-2023_dark.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1650" data-original-width="2550" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvTMO3UvD5WqHiDDTnzzR3bTq0IfccEGbgqjnA_IUfx4xYs7Mvldk6jD6FL4-5T7OseWv4vGsrr8T0rzUy7ylBzEsW7MpV-PyRixlzD-toDhv3KYgEAxzDrEqBIdQ8LT1ZcEGlZhtrBosFjvx1MGRKLAHVm2bUEDf9IrYfNh6TzvidqqpX-DtrCYaQFgLw/w640-h414/plot_era5_monthly_anomalies_2t_global_september_1940-2023_dark.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="538c">September 2023 was the warmest September on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 16.38°C, 0.93°C above the 1991–2020 average for September and 0.5°C above the temperature of the previous warmest September, in 2020.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="46a3">September 2023 global temperature was the most anomalously warm month of any year in the ERA5 dataset (back to 1940).</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="26b2">The month as a whole was around 1.75°C warmer than the September average for 1850–1900, the preindustrial reference period.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="cdec">The global temperature for January-September 2023 was 0.52°C higher than average, and 0.05°C higher than the equivalent period in the warmest calendar year (2016).</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="cec4">For January to September 2023, the global mean temperature for 2023 to date is 1.40°C higher than the preindustrial average (1850–1900).</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="ba67">For Europe, September 2023 was the warmest September on record, at 2.51°C higher than the 1991–2020 average, and 1.1°C higher than 2020, the previous warmest September.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="93a1">The average sea surface temperature for September over 60°S–60°N reached 20.92°C, the highest on record for September and the second highest across all months, behind August 2023.</li></ul><p class="graf graf--p" name="1f40">The really bad news? The El Niño phase will reach its full strength in the 1st half of 2024. How long it will last is indeterminate. Its opening stage — the first half of 2023, saw regional temperature increases of 2–3°C and globally about 1°C above the 1991–2020 average. The first half of 2024 and the Northern Summer that follows will completely eclipse that.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1f40"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="279" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8erFXZmp7fo" width="496" youtube-src-id="8erFXZmp7fo"></iframe></div><br /><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="04d3">In the ice around Antarctica, the daily and monthly extents reached their lowest annual maxima in the satellite record in September (the end of Southern winter), with <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2023" href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2023" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">the monthly extent 9% below average</a>. The daily Arctic sea ice extent reached its 6th lowest annual minimum in September (the end of Northern summer) while the monthly sea ice extent ranked 5th lowest, at 18% below average.</p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="684b">September 2023 saw wetter-than-average conditions along many parts of the western seaboard of Europe, including the western Iberian Peninsula, Ireland, northern Britain, and Scandinavia.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="3ef5">It was also wetter than average in Greece following extreme rainfall associated with storm Daniel; this event was also responsible for the devastating flooding in Libya.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="ede9">Southern Brazil and southern Chile also experienced extreme precipitation events.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="701b">Drier-than-average regions included parts of Europe, the southeastern USA, Mexico, central Asia, and Australia, where the driest September on record was recorded.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="72c6">Fires still burn across the length of Canada.</li></ul><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/716/1*wCmUuZ99LQLKXdEGw6sf4w.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="272" data-original-width="716" height="152" src="https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/716/1*wCmUuZ99LQLKXdEGw6sf4w.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><p class="graf graf--p" name="e54f"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Hansen, Sato, Ruedy & Simons, 13 October 2023</i></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> </p><h3 class="graf graf--h4" name="c570" style="text-align: left;">A Tale of Two Charts</h3><h4 class="graf graf--h4" name="c570"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4-mjE93TjjGhfPP4KOgjv3FZoImmj1jag_Oe2T7XwU5YnH2tibDJD3bKvSbisjtAZ-7ufP_qf9SNMxmJq09vtLHsFoNQdgAiShScyV7yeksGyGC-4mAqlieJKnmY6tRqG1FlD5mAs7WylbzjUgd0uBHsnXDtCCcK77sxLYum1arv5prTi1t7fUfgys6oX/s942/Copernicus%20July%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="942" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4-mjE93TjjGhfPP4KOgjv3FZoImmj1jag_Oe2T7XwU5YnH2tibDJD3bKvSbisjtAZ-7ufP_qf9SNMxmJq09vtLHsFoNQdgAiShScyV7yeksGyGC-4mAqlieJKnmY6tRqG1FlD5mAs7WylbzjUgd0uBHsnXDtCCcK77sxLYum1arv5prTi1t7fUfgys6oX/w640-h452/Copernicus%20July%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></h4><p class="graf graf--p">July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded in the N. Hemisphere. The month was 0.7°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average for July, and 0.33°C warmer than the previous warmest month, July 2019. While September is usually cooler than July in the Northern Hemisphere what should be more worrying is the extent of the anomaly — 0.5°C more than the previous record in 2020. Last month was 0.93°C above the 1991–2020 average for September. What it appears, albeit preliminarily, is that as we get farther along into the El Niño, each record breaks its prior record by a greater margin. More scary? The Copernicus group notes that Septembers of other recent years with developing El Niño events, such as 1997 and 2015, have not been especially warm.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="a5be">In July, 2023:</p><ul class="postList"><li class="graf graf--li" name="0799">In Phoenix, Arizona, only the last day of the month registered a daily maximum temperature lower than 110°F (43°C).</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="8cc5">All-time temperature records higher than 37°C were recorded close to the Arctic Circle at two sites in the Canadian Northwest Territories. It was also much warmer than average over Greenland, where the estimated extent of surface ice melt was high.</li><li class="graf graf--li" name="ca06">In Asia, Kazakhstan experienced heatwave conditions, China reported its highest-ever measured temperature, 52.2°C.</li></ul><p class="graf graf--p" name="d02f">That is change multiplied by change — the exponential hockey stick. Can you imagine what it will be like in Phoenix or Northwest China in July, 2024? We don’t have long to wait.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVoywjyvsDjlBCBZ4qTZWDI2X9d5e4yO7tq4ViOyqIXlW3JN69suvu4_y4MQA9_161pLtGOHL_pMBcnu5EpqLZdXsS_SmkC4iQREitApx35emaIXKyVncA10FjagQI7tqB5qQguYbhJiRJRR9mdQ_iEGtCj8NhU7Zgs55CQGd40VNjUI7AfagHV_r72QAp/s1000/climaterepairstartups2023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="1000" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVoywjyvsDjlBCBZ4qTZWDI2X9d5e4yO7tq4ViOyqIXlW3JN69suvu4_y4MQA9_161pLtGOHL_pMBcnu5EpqLZdXsS_SmkC4iQREitApx35emaIXKyVncA10FjagQI7tqB5qQguYbhJiRJRR9mdQ_iEGtCj8NhU7Zgs55CQGd40VNjUI7AfagHV_r72QAp/w400-h176/climaterepairstartups2023.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><em class="markup--em markup--figure-em"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Distribution of new startups in the climate repair space</span></em></td></tr></tbody></table><section class="section section--body" name="a13e"><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><p class="graf graf--p" name="c9e7">I want my granddaughter to have as wonderful a life as I have had. I am confident she could have that life even if civilization as we know it (<em class="markup--em markup--p-em">ie:</em> consumer culture) were to disappear and we all revert to something more akin to the pastoral life <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2019/03/black-hawks-11-percent-solution.html" href="https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2019/03/black-hawks-11-percent-solution.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">described by Black Hawk</a> at the end of the Nineteenth Century.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="aad7"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">The land around our village, uncultivated, was covered with bluegrass, which made excellent pasture for our horses. Several fine springs broke out of the bluff nearby, from which we were supplied with good water. The rapids of Rock River furnished us with an abundance of excellent fish, and the land, being good, never failed to produce good crops of corn, beans, pumpkins, and squashes. We always had plenty — our children never cried with hunger, nor our people were ever in want. Here our village had stood for more than a hundred years….</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="4744">In order to get even to that outcome, not to exclude a techno-civilizational rescue, we have to halve the production of anthropogenic greenhouse gases every 7 years for the remainder of the century while at the same time ramping up carbon dioxide removal by all the natural regenerative methods described in this space in preceding posts.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1386">Simple as that.</p></div></div></section><section class="section section--body" name="b04d"> </section><section class="section section--body" name="b04d"><section class="section section--body" name="d0d3"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><p class="graf graf--p"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"> </strong></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiToHEeKHHwqHDlxwell3FJ9-cRIM1Y7EpRZTPjVRVKNCx5alGaQOhK_GEyYURLDCwzQ-O-DHV93h7syX-OVFHgB0ddLjYxgTZYHzxZxASS_NSMMgP9yrG-QlU8rpu1C-145ruDfb5G8g5bCyA0b6DYQqZUrIgROrHdvO0l3Q5HK-Prs9voOUfmZgQ6nsRc/s2048/15Ukraine-Kherson-Shelling-5-5a8f-superJumbo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1366" data-original-width="2048" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiToHEeKHHwqHDlxwell3FJ9-cRIM1Y7EpRZTPjVRVKNCx5alGaQOhK_GEyYURLDCwzQ-O-DHV93h7syX-OVFHgB0ddLjYxgTZYHzxZxASS_NSMMgP9yrG-QlU8rpu1C-145ruDfb5G8g5bCyA0b6DYQqZUrIgROrHdvO0l3Q5HK-Prs9voOUfmZgQ6nsRc/w640-h426/15Ukraine-Kherson-Shelling-5-5a8f-superJumbo.jpg" width="640" /></a></strong></div><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong"><br /></strong><p></p><p class="graf graf--p"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">Meanwhile, let’s end this war.</strong> Towns, villages, and cities in Ukraine are being bombed every day. Ecovillages and permaculture farms have organized something like an underground railroad to shelter families fleeing the cities, either on a long-term basis or temporarily, as people wait for the best moments to cross the border to a safer place or to return to their homes if that becomes possible. There are 70 sites in Ukraine and 500 around the region. As you read this, 40 Ukrainian ecovillages and 300 in Europe have given shelter to thousands of adults and children and are receiving up to 1400 persons (around 200 children) each month. We call our project “The Green Road.”</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="d82c">For most of the children refugees, this will be their first experience in ecovillage living. They will directly experience its wonders, skills, and safety. They may never want to go back. Those who do will carry the seeds within them of the better world they glimpsed through the eyes of a child.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e86d">Those wishing to make a tax-deductible gift can do so through Global Village Institute by going to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.blogger.com/#" href="https://www.blogger.com/#" rel="noopener" target="_blank">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a> or by directing donations to greenroad@thefarm.org.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="a0a1">There is more info on the Global Village Institute website at <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.blogger.com/#" href="https://www.blogger.com/#" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://www.gvix.org/greenroad</a> or you can listen to this <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NPR Podcast </a>and read these recent articles in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Mother Jones</em></a><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"> </em>and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">The World</em></a>. Thank you for your help.</p></div></div></section><section class="section section--body" name="ee90"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="be0b"><span class="graf-dropCap">T</span><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">he COVID-19 pandemic</strong> destroyed lives, livelihoods, and economies. But it has not slowed climate change, a juggernaut threat to all life, humans included. We had a trial run at emergency problem-solving on a global scale with COVID — and we failed. 6.95 million people, and counting, have died. (<em class="markup--em markup--p-em">The Economist</em> estimates the real figure is probably twenty to thirty million, if excess deaths are included. That ignores the numbers of injured with long Covid and other complications who likely will have shortened lifespans from their infections.) We ignored well-laid plans to isolate and contact trace early cases; overloaded our ICUs; parked morgue trucks on the streets; and incinerated bodies until the smoke obscured our cities as much as the raging wildfires. The modern world took a masterclass in how abysmally, unbelievably, shockingly bad we could fail, despite our amazing science, vast wealth, and singular talents as a species.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0a13"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQKpIhRw1NeXv_48y8kjf4B4WykBDdDhOpdZRF1xl-P8Q6Wa5z3TSipqoZLcpJf8mnwR33C1Rshaw9F2aZ6dscZNvnCw8u3pf613a-58huVx5VcBdNlRmrumcZ8KJOobk8OrjVSUgZx6abAPyTAMUSOJCARdV4yjinXkyhm84VcU7d41F_uk5jj8pGmzTw/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQKpIhRw1NeXv_48y8kjf4B4WykBDdDhOpdZRF1xl-P8Q6Wa5z3TSipqoZLcpJf8mnwR33C1Rshaw9F2aZ6dscZNvnCw8u3pf613a-58huVx5VcBdNlRmrumcZ8KJOobk8OrjVSUgZx6abAPyTAMUSOJCARdV4yjinXkyhm84VcU7d41F_uk5jj8pGmzTw/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></div>Having failed so dramatically, so convincingly, with such breathtaking ineptitude, do we imagine we will now do better with climate? Having demonstrated such extreme disorientation in the face of a few simple strands of RNA, do we imagine we can call upon some magic power that will arrest all our planetary-ecosystem-destroying activities?<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="c9da">As the world enters a new phase of the pandemic, there is growing recognition that we must learn to do better. We must chart a pathway to a new carbon economy that goes beyond zero emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle backward — taking CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean, turning it into coal and oil, and burying it in the ground. The triple bottom line of this new economy is antifragility, regeneration, and resilience. We must lead by good examples; carrots, not sticks; ecovillages, not carbon indulgences. We must attract a broad swath of people to this work by honoring it, rewarding it, and making it fun. That is our challenge now.</p></div></div></section><p class="graf graf--p" name="b024"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Help me get my blog posted every week. All Patreon donations and Blogger or Substack subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on Patreon get an autographed book off each first press run. Please help if you can.</em></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="75c6">Thank you for reading <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">The Great Change.</em></p></section></div></div></section><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-71902580916942202342023-10-08T06:30:00.002-05:002023-10-08T06:30:00.137-05:00If a Kelp Falls in the Forest and No One Hears…<p><i><a href="">"</a>The Climate Foundation is on a campaign to spread marine permaculture to all the waters of the world.<a href="">"</a></i></p><p><i></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioWBF5zU0CH5T8rqGV3tJp3NQt-ZeTgpJiTPNh_R_JDqdbO_-45ktax8v9dMOcDRGifcLxmbOMF51H9h5niKpUNphdxCx3CwdlDrplUWbG_w3s43gEAWSjyOQ3d0b5FA_TIiH_NOxHBjncLoucZR1DmVOOhoyP4EBuWqKKOTdr20pkg9X0NVVuWdkDvJ_-/s2852/oilwhalesharkkelpforest2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1560" data-original-width="2852" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioWBF5zU0CH5T8rqGV3tJp3NQt-ZeTgpJiTPNh_R_JDqdbO_-45ktax8v9dMOcDRGifcLxmbOMF51H9h5niKpUNphdxCx3CwdlDrplUWbG_w3s43gEAWSjyOQ3d0b5FA_TIiH_NOxHBjncLoucZR1DmVOOhoyP4EBuWqKKOTdr20pkg9X0NVVuWdkDvJ_-/w640-h350/oilwhalesharkkelpforest2.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></div><i><br /></i><p></p><p class="graf graf--p"><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">A wonder of nature,</strong> perhaps a metaphor for its magic, is that the planet’s most majestic forest grandeur is hidden from our view. Though this forest’s “trees” are taller than sequoias, they are invisible to us. They grow down, not up. Unburdened by having to fight gravity or thirst for fickle rain, they grow thirty times faster than their leafy cousins on land. You just need a snorkle, scuba, or a submersible to visit them.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="996d">From the warm shallows of Borneo to the icy waters off Greenland are unseen, underwater, vast forests of green. They are doing what forests do best — sheltering lifeforms large and small, providing food and fodder, sequestering carbon. Their nesting “birds” are manatees, whale sharks, dolphins and sea turtles.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="3e87">Sadly, these forests are as much under attack by the hand of man as are their landed brethren. These giants tumble not by ax or chain but from heat, acid tides, microplastics, toxic runoff, abuse and neglect. But all the while, growing conditions are getting consistently better. According to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06321-z" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06321-z" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a report this year in <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Nature</em>, </a>our blue planet is greening, and that is not a metaphor.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="3e87"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_kTSbZRRujiM4lu65VXANF5OEUy-PlDU1rgIpp9LDO9GzB28IfU9Qmc4ock5V338XAqcH8PmYBWtRHnmB3xN_ofuOm2G5y9FHgZIULeT7z-dDqbi84F5E3aKU0TzOzsfHZn6UQmQL-Vo0D-qHEBFM3ZRXr18qPkZEuaBE9IQl6rKPNTnDHEOmAKebnZ66/s1000/oceanisgreening_2022_lrg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="514" data-original-width="1000" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_kTSbZRRujiM4lu65VXANF5OEUy-PlDU1rgIpp9LDO9GzB28IfU9Qmc4ock5V338XAqcH8PmYBWtRHnmB3xN_ofuOm2G5y9FHgZIULeT7z-dDqbi84F5E3aKU0TzOzsfHZn6UQmQL-Vo0D-qHEBFM3ZRXr18qPkZEuaBE9IQl6rKPNTnDHEOmAKebnZ66/w640-h328/oceanisgreening_2022_lrg.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><p class="graf graf--p" name="1581"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Green shading represents areas where ocean surface color has significantly changed. <br />Black dots represent areas with a change in chlorophyll levels. <span class="markup--em markup--p-em">NASA</span></i></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table> </p><p class="graf graf--p" name="3e87">Analyzing 20 years from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite, NASA researchers watched 56 percent of the global ocean, mainly equatorward of 40°, undergo a color shift from blue to green. Fertilized by exceptional surpluses of carbon and nitrogen, photosynthesizing microscopic organisms make chlorophyll. Greening is changing the surface-ocean ecosystem at a scale and speed never before witnessed.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="b310"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJndb1OTcrgHlVuJ6aI0B2JBNE5pL0hGRT9E3cTcTLBDI0uUm09gs4p2z0DTWCwZAhy11DIdvDFM6GnQqAWcsMCdmMKPQ03CEe4CcxX6-96lV-CgcHMnv8qXyohNKa_RK8CYj0nGeZju6i9EclGsl3c56CdG6wRX0hUieYDvaiM7ulK0TFaD-4XnfVEQZ_/s400/zones.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="400" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJndb1OTcrgHlVuJ6aI0B2JBNE5pL0hGRT9E3cTcTLBDI0uUm09gs4p2z0DTWCwZAhy11DIdvDFM6GnQqAWcsMCdmMKPQ03CEe4CcxX6-96lV-CgcHMnv8qXyohNKa_RK8CYj0nGeZju6i9EclGsl3c56CdG6wRX0hUieYDvaiM7ulK0TFaD-4XnfVEQZ_/s320/zones.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>The good parts: dead plants will fall like snow to the ocean floor, entombing that small part of the carbon cycle; marine food chains, which begin as microscopic organisms, will prosper; color-coding helps the UN designate new marine protected areas.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="76f1">The bad: green is even more absorptive of solar heat than is blue. Ocean stratification — keeping warmer surface layers from mixing with cooler, deeper parts of the ocean — may harmfully impact deeper benthic ecosystems. With solar uptake in Watts-per-square-meter already far too high (due to declining sulfate aerosols, albedo, El Niño, greenhouse capture, etc.), this is not a good thing. But a hot ocean grows plants. Now, what can we do with that?</p><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="6b7a"><span class="graf-dropCap">T</span>here are scientists and creative thinkers who want to reseed coastal sea glades. Using a process that Climate Foundation founder Brian von Herzen calls “Marine Permaculture” (he explains the name in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://nori.com/podcast/34-brian-von-herzen-founder-of-climate-foundation" href="https://nori.com/podcast/34-brian-von-herzen-founder-of-climate-foundation" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">this podcast</a>), his team is regrowing kelp forests, beginning with small patches, or “farms.” Kelp starter plants grow on floating ropes, attracting mussels. The kelp and mussels draw in so much carbon dioxide they de-acidify the water, providing an ideal environment for shell growth. By artificially pumping nutrients from the deeper water below, with wind and solar, these startup farms are replenished by nutrient flows, speeding establishment.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8b69">Already in the Yellow Sea of China over 500 square kilometers of such farms provide livelihoods. Sea farmers patrol in sailing junks and haul up the kelp ropes from which hang baskets filled with scallops and oysters. Globally, around 12 million tons of seaweed is harvested annually, three-quarters coming from China. The world eats five billion dollars worth of that high-quality protein every year.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="30ce">A 2012 study by the University of the South Pacific’s Antoine De Ramon N’Yeurt projected that if 9 percent of the ocean (an area four times the size of Australia) were to be repopulated with seaweed farms, the added photosynthesis would capture 19 gigatons of CO₂, every year, nearly half of fossil pollution today. Add biochar to end-of-life for waste from kelp processing plants and that drawdown multiplies. According to N’Yeurt, “This amount of biomass could increase sustainable fish production to potentially provide 200 kilograms per year, per person, for 10 billion people.”</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="58fa">In the Philippines where, after landing several prizes for the conceptual design, the Climate Foundation spent more than one million dollars to set up its first arrays, von Herzen describes how he noticed local sardine fishermen trawling nearby at night.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote graf--startsWithDoubleQuote" name="4f88"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">“… because the sardines love to hang out, you know? … [W]e have seen thousands of sardines, hundreds of tuna. We had a family of dolphins spend more than a month around our deep sea platform and we’ve had a whale shark swim an estimated 200 kilometers and spend three days eating our algae. So nature voted with her fins. She said you’ve got the good stuff.”</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="e42c">Von Herzen <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.climatefoundation.org/uploads/b/30209783-827020267933076166/2040-beard-snip_888.mp4" href="https://www.climatefoundation.org/uploads/b/30209783-827020267933076166/2040-beard-snip_888.mp4" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">jokes</a> he has the Whale Shark Seal of Approval now.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="d4ee">The “platform” — each eventually will be about one hectare in size, one hundred assembled to cover a square kilometer — is a carbon polymer frame structure suspended about just below the surface. Cables dangling below the frame are planted with kelp, a brown leafy seaweed you may recognize as the kombu in your miso soup.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="b703">The frame can be interspersed with containers for shellfish and other kinds of fish as well, von Herzen says.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ed29">There would be no netting, but a kind of free-range aquaculture based on providing habitat to keep fish on location. Robotic removal of encrusting organisms would probably also be part of the facility. The marine permaculture would be designed to clip the bottom of the waves during heavy seas. Below it, a pipe reaching down to 200–500 meters would bring cool, nutrient-rich water to the frame, where it would be reticulated over the growing kelp.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8964">That is all it takes, circulating nutrient flows, sunlight, and seawater. <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Voilá!</em> Dinner for ten billion.</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="0949"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">Von Herzen’s objective is to create what he calls “permaculture arrays” — marine permaculture at a scale that will have an impact on the climate by growing kelp and bringing cooler ocean water to the surface. His vision also entails providing habitat for fish, generating food, feedstocks for animals, fertilizer and biofuels. He also hopes to help exploited fish populations rebound and to create jobs.</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="20cb" style="text-align: right;"><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theconversation.com/how-farming-giant-seaweed-can-feed-fish-and-fix-the-climate-81761" href="https://theconversation.com/how-farming-giant-seaweed-can-feed-fish-and-fix-the-climate-81761" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">— The Conversation</em></a></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7053"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxBZ_kcscs0WOhNUKlSRl9ixQDw_RcSqHvPZLZ8s1_Wrht6TpHAmgcH0AE9oFVq4z4sXkRY2nJzjZ43Io1ImWsx8AsjtVSA9rtTp83ytAL00Qt86doNYa3HFGFe8SUkDLyjcYn13QO75lMJ9284Yq4HdIiAL3uafMXbktpHfJDNRNlHLcNSiXJ1X9UG1aX/s1235/mekabu-japanese-seaweed-735x490.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1235" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxBZ_kcscs0WOhNUKlSRl9ixQDw_RcSqHvPZLZ8s1_Wrht6TpHAmgcH0AE9oFVq4z4sXkRY2nJzjZ43Io1ImWsx8AsjtVSA9rtTp83ytAL00Qt86doNYa3HFGFe8SUkDLyjcYn13QO75lMJ9284Yq4HdIiAL3uafMXbktpHfJDNRNlHLcNSiXJ1X9UG1aX/w200-h133/mekabu-japanese-seaweed-735x490.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>Marine permaculture could also close a nutrient loop on land. Feed maricultured fish algae (instead of grain), feed cattle pelletized algae (instead of grain), and then directly or indirectly feed ourselves. If you have ever had a seaweed salad or sushi, you may have eaten brown algae (kombu, wakame, mekabu, hijiki and mozuku); green algae (umibudou and aonori), or red algae (nori and tosakanori). In Kyushu and San-in, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.japanesefoodguide.com/edible-japanese-seaweed-types/" href="https://www.japanesefoodguide.com/edible-japanese-seaweed-types/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">records show</a> that the seaweed harvest was celebrated in the year 710. Rich in iron, calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, potassium and iodine, the Japanese have known the benefits for a long time.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="a575">Brown seaweed like kelp is the fastest growing tree in the world. Faster than bamboo on land. In the right conditions, a single plant adds more than a meter per day of mass. That translates into thousands of tons of carbon pulled from the atmosphere per square kilometer of ocean surface, per year.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="a27b"><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.climatefoundation.org/uploads/b/30209783-827020267933076166/2040-beard-snip_888.mp4" href="https://www.climatefoundation.org/uploads/b/30209783-827020267933076166/2040-beard-snip_888.mp4" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Von Herzen says</a>,</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="a639"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">Our aim is to build hectare-scale marine permaculture — every seaweed farmer has a license to cultivate one hectare of seaweed locally. And that is a great size, because that’s also the size that we believe is going to be commercially sustainable.</em></blockquote><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="1c67"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">And there are a quarter million seaweed farmers on the front lines of climate disruption in the Philippines alone. That’s been a great first country for us because literally we need to help those seaweed communities from collapsing today, because the water’s too warm, the nutrient levels are too low, and they get hit with 20 named hurricanes per year.</em></blockquote><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="0251"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">We were on a direct hit ourselves — super typhoon Rai (Odette) December 2021 — and most seaweed cultivation is just wiped out in a hurricane as you can imagine. But our platform lowered five meters below the surface and not only did it survive 15 foot waves and 120 knot winds but it remained intact and most of the seaweed was still on it and the day after the hurricane we were growing seaweed again on the surface and six months later we delivered a quarter ton of seedlings of seaweed to our neighboring communities so they could restart their farms. With our partners at Coast4C </em><a class="markup--anchor markup--blockquote-anchor" data-href="https://coast4c.com/" href="https://coast4c.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">https://coast4c.com/</em></a><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em"> we applied to the Safe Seaweed Coalition to build a seaweed seed bank that we’re building today and it’s going to lower down during the storm and then come back up after a storm and reseed all the neighboring communities so that’s now a funded project thanks to our serendipitous hurricane proven seaweed platform.</em></blockquote><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="93a1"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">This is a beacon of light for the future because I’ve had professional seaweed colleagues leave the Philippines because it’s just so it was so difficult to deal with the hurricanes and getting wiped out every few years. It’s like a bowling alley and when your pin gets knocked over you know you’re out of business. Imagine starting over and losing your house and losing your boat. I mean all these things are devastating but you know there’s something the indigenous folks do in the Philippines that I learned later I wish I’d known it earlier. When a hurricane’s coming they take the motor off their boat. They scuttle their boat and sink it with a little milk bottle up on the surface. The hurricane comes through and when it’s all over and then they just lift the boat up and bail it out and put the motor on it again. And that works great. That’s exactly the answer for seaweed. So there’s a great example of indigenous knowledge contributing significantly to best practices.</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="5d4f"><span class="graf-dropCap">As</span> Sea F. Briganti’s <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.loliware.com/" href="https://www.loliware.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Loliware company</a> has demonstrated, kelp can also make biodegradable plastic. On a mission to replace the tens of billions of plastic straws washing up on sandy beaches every day, Loliware straws are made from all-natural, food-grade kelp. If a straw unfortunately makes its way to the ocean, it poses no harm to marine life. As their website says: “Loliware is an award-winning materials tech company focused on replacing single-use plastics with seaweed-derived alternatives that are Designed to Disappear®.” The plastic’s polymer chain will eventually be unzipped by sunlight, saltwater and wave action or harmlessly eaten and digested to fertilize more seaweed. Briganti’s customers now include Delta Air Lines, Georgia-Pacific, Home Depot, Inspire Brands, UPS, Chick-fil-A, and Coca-Cola.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="8ce2">The Climate Foundation<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://nori.com/podcast/34-brian-von-herzen-founder-of-climate-foundation" href="https://nori.com/podcast/34-brian-von-herzen-founder-of-climate-foundation" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank"> is on a campaign</a> to spread marine permaculture to all the coastal waters of the world. They envision an industry that employs millions of people regenerating ocean deserts into thousands of kelp forests and restoring life to the ocean. A simple technique enables it all — upwelling waters from cool temperature to warmer temperatures, something that can be done with floating solar arrays or offshore wind farms. With the recent award of the <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.climatefoundation.org/xprize.html" href="https://www.climatefoundation.org/xprize.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">million-dollar X-Prize for Carbon Removal</a>, they are off and running. Von Herzen says,</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="49a6"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">I was told by my friend Tom Chee that there’s as much ant biomass on the planet as there is humans and I think if you include termites and some other arthropods he’s right. They actually eat 10 times the amount per day that humans do but they managed to do it in a way that’s regenerative.</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="eb1c">Can we learn something from the ants and the insects of the world and actually find a way to turn our aircraft carrier of food production five degrees to the right and actually learn how to generate food security regeneratively rather than extractively? I think that’s an opportunity in the oceans. If we can regenerate the habitat, regenerate the food sources, we can bring back the sardines, the anchovies, the herring, and that’ll be a great foundation for food security across the planet.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="73c0">I think having the seal of approval from a whale shark — an example of something that can be enormous by filter-feeding on microscopic organisms — is a great sign for all of us to think about. How we can grow big while making small changes? And scaling up from local to global impact? Like a whale shark.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="999d">Removing half of global CO2 pollution every year by seaweed farming is nothing to sneeze at. Especially if you have seasonal allergies to tree pollens. Each hectare might take a million dollars to establish but could produce that much annually in food and other products. Growing new kelp forests in just 1 to 2 percent of the ocean would sequester enough carbon to restore the climate, assuming we can get civilization to something approaching net zero.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="04b0">Sir David King, the Commonwealth’s UN climate envoy, calculated:</p><blockquote class="graf graf--blockquote" name="658b"><em class="markup--em markup--blockquote-em">When the pandemic broke out, governments rushed to enact multitrillion-dollar aid packages that sometimes cost more than 20 percent of their gross domestic product (over 25 percent in the United States). Washington has debated spending another $1 trillion on pandemic relief and emergency stimulus, on top of the $2.2 trillion Cares Act and $4 trillion in federal loan guarantees for businesses. That is, for the most part, money well spent. The pandemic is a massive, deadly threat. But of course, so is the climate crisis…. Contrasting climate and the coronavirus is something of a false dichotomy, because the two can compound each other. These difficulties will worsen as climate change alters the way humans interact with other species and one another, increasing the risk of future pandemics just as rising seas displace 150 million people who live along coastlines by mid-century…. Promising interventions exist, and they will cost an order of magnitude less to deploy and scale up than what we’re spending now to fight the pandemic.</em></blockquote><p class="graf graf--p" name="4643">In 2023 Climate Foundation successfully launched its prototype solar-powered surface platform and completed a 1000 sq. meter (quarter-acre) submersible seaweed array.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="49e5">Visitors to the <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.climatefoundation.org/" href="https://www.climatefoundation.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Climate Foundation site</a> can learn more about marine permaculture, including the various ways in which it benefits the planet; look up detailed technical and organizational questions about the project; or explore the organization’s other projects. They also can subscribe to the newsletter or support the foundation’s work by making a donation</p><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote class="graf graf--pullquote" name="46bc"><span style="font-size: medium;"><blockquote><blockquote><i>Thank you for reading <span class="markup--em markup--pullquote-em">The Great Change.</span> This post is public so feel free to share it.</i></blockquote></blockquote></span></blockquote></div><h3 class="graf graf--h3" name="73eb"><i>References</i></h3><p class="graf graf--p" name="c782">Cael, B.B., Bisson, K., Boss, E. et al. Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology. <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Nature</em></a> 619, 551–554 (2023).</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="77f3">Climate Foundation, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brian von Herzen of the Climate Foundation talks to Paul Watson, co-founder of Greenpeace</a></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="c5d0">Climate Foundation, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://philanthropynewsdigest.org/features/nonprofit-spotlight/climate-foundation" href="https://philanthropynewsdigest.org/features/nonprofit-spotlight/climate-foundation" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Philanthropy News Digest, </em></a>Oct 26, 2021.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="f89c"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Climate Positive: Brian von Herzen, PhD. | Scaling marine permaculture</em></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="1524">Eco-Business, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.eco-business.com/press-releases/eight-finalists-for-the-liveability-challenge-2023-unveiled-with-solutions-combating-the-most-urgent-urban-sustainability-challenges-of-our-time/" href="https://www.eco-business.com/press-releases/eight-finalists-for-the-liveability-challenge-2023-unveiled-with-solutions-combating-the-most-urgent-urban-sustainability-challenges-of-our-time/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Eight finalists for The Liveability Challenge 2023 unveiled, with solutions combating the most urgent urban sustainability challenges of our time</em></a> (April 27, 2023)</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e819"><a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/ClimateFoundation/" href="https://www.facebook.com/ClimateFoundation/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://www.facebook.com/ClimateFoundation/</a></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="5691">Investing in Regenerative Agriculture, <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.eco-business.com/press-releases/eight-finalists-for-the-liveability-challenge-2023-unveiled-with-solutions-combating-the-most-urgent-urban-sustainability-challenges-of-our-time/" href="https://www.eco-business.com/press-releases/eight-finalists-for-the-liveability-challenge-2023-unveiled-with-solutions-combating-the-most-urgent-urban-sustainability-challenges-of-our-time/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Brian Von Herzen, Why oceans are the next billion $ opportunity of regenerative agriculture.</em></a></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="4a5e">Nori Reversing Climate Change Podcast November 20, 2020</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="5041">Ocean Visions and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Answering Critical Questions About Sinking Macroalgae for Carbon Dioxide Removal</em> (2022)</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="704c">Ritschard, R. L. “Marine algae as a CO 2 sink.” <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Water, Air, and Soil Pollution</em> 64 (1992): 289–303.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e6ec">Witze, Alexandra. “Oceans are turning greener due to climate change.” <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Nature</em> (2023).</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="aeb9">Yale Environment, The Oceans Are Getting Greener, Remote Sensing Reveals, <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">E360 Digest</em> (Oct 2, 2023).</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7053"><span></span></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7053"><span></span></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7053"><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="3e87"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibsk8ScqgJgbWrM11G67UnVSIVLXaMBvNHNFYDvwLzK9Xfao0AlP_eF7-PI71itCdZ916sSQ5E_Lljtob_KcPlh_pPbvyKZY4YMy1nUGp-IDbbS9v9svRdJqYz9XBGt-CVSSDPltbsFXEAoGS48Q3aR3x3pgicjMUO4gW4c3JrGoiQHi9JH-Tk2TYXkq_T/s940/1660632335524.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="788" data-original-width="940" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibsk8ScqgJgbWrM11G67UnVSIVLXaMBvNHNFYDvwLzK9Xfao0AlP_eF7-PI71itCdZ916sSQ5E_Lljtob_KcPlh_pPbvyKZY4YMy1nUGp-IDbbS9v9svRdJqYz9XBGt-CVSSDPltbsFXEAoGS48Q3aR3x3pgicjMUO4gW4c3JrGoiQHi9JH-Tk2TYXkq_T/w400-h335/1660632335524.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span class="graf-dropCap"><b>M</b></span><strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">eanwhile, let’s end this war.</strong> Towns, villages, and cities in Ukraine are being bombed every day. Ecovillages and permaculture farms have organized something like an underground railroad to shelter families fleeing the cities, either on a long-term basis or temporarily, as people wait for the best moments to cross the border to a safer place or to return to their homes if that becomes possible. There are 70 sites in Ukraine and 500 around the region. As you read this, 40 Ukrainian ecovillages and 300 in Europe have given shelter to thousands of adults and children and are receiving up to 1400 persons (around 200 children) each month. We call our project “The Green Road.”<p></p><section class="section section--body" name="ea32"><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><p class="graf graf--p" name="1898">For most of the children refugees, this will be their first experience in ecovillage living. They will directly experience its wonders, skills, and safety. They may never want to go back. Those who do will carry the seeds within them of the better world they glimpsed through the eyes of a child.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="ea70">Those wishing to make a tax-deductible gift can do so through Global Village Institute by going to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.blogger.com/#" href="https://www.blogger.com/#" rel="noopener" target="_blank">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a> or by directing donations to greenroad@thefarm.org.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="7766">There is more info on the Global Village Institute website at <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.blogger.com/#" href="https://www.blogger.com/#" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://www.gvix.org/greenroad</a> or you can listen to this <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NPR Podcast </a>and read these recent articles in <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Mother Jones</em></a><em class="markup--em markup--p-em"> </em>and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">The World</em></a>. Thank you for your help.</p></div></div></section><section class="section section--body" name="83f5"><div class="section-divider"><hr class="section-divider" /></div><div class="section-content"><div class="section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn"><p class="graf graf--p graf--hasDropCapModel graf--hasDropCap" name="7ca0"><span class="graf-dropCap"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMPt_lviBLZ1YfFkE21abksYWJA-6tl7lGQsUZcJO24SJ7kXgUg5K6K9qt8Sg_Gk4YZ7VIeBCN6LzpfJzXQ__9A7IlKNodaYkgLIi0v-IkmHw4aflx-jfYS6tBKV0-xr0-OV8o44FYzyEurBl_6vZDNXNosqwI1XRuAogUqaEkjTmLz_C0b59t7Cy7UCpa/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMPt_lviBLZ1YfFkE21abksYWJA-6tl7lGQsUZcJO24SJ7kXgUg5K6K9qt8Sg_Gk4YZ7VIeBCN6LzpfJzXQ__9A7IlKNodaYkgLIi0v-IkmHw4aflx-jfYS6tBKV0-xr0-OV8o44FYzyEurBl_6vZDNXNosqwI1XRuAogUqaEkjTmLz_C0b59t7Cy7UCpa/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></div><br />T<strong class="markup--strong markup--p-strong">he COVID-19 pandemic</strong> destroyed lives, livelihoods, and economies. But it has not slowed climate change, a juggernaut threat to all life, humans included. We had a trial run at emergency problem-solving on a global scale with COVID — and we failed. 6.95 million people, and counting, have died. (<em class="markup--em markup--p-em">The Economist</em> estimates the real figure is probably twenty to thirty million, if excess deaths are included. That ignores the numbers of injured with long Covid and other complications who likely will have shortened lifespans from their infections.) We ignored well-laid plans to isolate and contact trace early cases; overloaded our ICUs; parked morgue trucks on the streets; and incinerated bodies until the smoke obscured our cities as much as the raging wildfires. The modern world took a masterclass in how abysmally, unbelievably, shockingly bad we could fail, despite our amazing science, vast wealth, and singular talents as a species.<p></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e3d4">Having failed so dramatically, so convincingly, with such breathtaking ineptitude, do we imagine we will now do better with climate? Having demonstrated such extreme disorientation in the face of a few simple strands of RNA, do we imagine we can call upon some magic power that will arrest all our planetary-ecosystem-destroying activities?</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e81d">As the world enters a new phase of the pandemic, there is growing recognition that we must learn to do better. We must chart a pathway to a new carbon economy that goes beyond zero emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle backward — taking CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean, turning it into coal and oil, and burying it in the ground. The triple bottom line of this new economy is antifragility, regeneration, and resilience. We must lead by good examples; carrots, not sticks; ecovillages, not carbon indulgences. We must attract a broad swath of people to this work by honoring it, rewarding it, and making it fun. That is our challenge now.</p><p class="graf graf--p" name="382e"><em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Help me get my blog posted every week. All Patreon donations and Blogger or Substack subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on Patreon get an autographed book off each first press run. Please help if you can.</em></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="0169">Thank you for reading <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">The Great Change.</em></p><p class="graf graf--p" name="e81d"> </p></div></div></section><p>
</p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1575603731696062553.post-78767616100176975192023-10-01T06:30:00.017-05:002023-10-01T06:30:00.133-05:00Ecovillage Response to the Climate Emergency<p><i><a href="">"</a>We may be the final generation of humans but we could still evolve into the first generation of eco-humans.<a href="">"</a></i></p><p><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVNvVzD-tYxSzTJ46cvtxhiB4wjtc5GBdXEG26JlYXrUFHJ9RmlCFhsKqZDqyDiUv1gZvuzYf55mqsX-5e48iaZfxjsco7YmUM29d3pj9UfccSrknrSd8hCRmtmzwQDkdJfewKGMgbmeypCYx8SAckVaRPazSWmjRNgtpEUM6xLgPb7SxCEbfk21mPiw6z/s2048/OilPaducahEcovillageHot.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1365" data-original-width="2048" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVNvVzD-tYxSzTJ46cvtxhiB4wjtc5GBdXEG26JlYXrUFHJ9RmlCFhsKqZDqyDiUv1gZvuzYf55mqsX-5e48iaZfxjsco7YmUM29d3pj9UfccSrknrSd8hCRmtmzwQDkdJfewKGMgbmeypCYx8SAckVaRPazSWmjRNgtpEUM6xLgPb7SxCEbfk21mPiw6z/w640-h426/OilPaducahEcovillageHot.jpg" width="640" /></a></b></div><b><br />As</b><b> I post this,</b><span> I am knee-deep in presenting a
webinar, hosted by the Global Ecovillage Network, on the theme of
ecovillage responses to climate change. Let me reprise some of my talk
from that event here, starting with the latest weather reports and a
year in review.</span><p></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzKZU9Y0ncABXRCQJT5mQdW4P7IJdZ8RfDgBtLQqmZT7mVR13sumFpjQLlqh98MSYJOArd_x6O0bc8wcQFeOIXIQDtm1snb14ldbgKn2HI28hMxODeMnTdJDmPqYd0IqHxKndDtNJekvp7upPFvaiWQWIO9vLzmk0bXXBt17XXbeQNSHXnCtKp_rWcdZKM/s893/EcofootprintPromo.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="893" data-original-width="790" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzKZU9Y0ncABXRCQJT5mQdW4P7IJdZ8RfDgBtLQqmZT7mVR13sumFpjQLlqh98MSYJOArd_x6O0bc8wcQFeOIXIQDtm1snb14ldbgKn2HI28hMxODeMnTdJDmPqYd0IqHxKndDtNJekvp7upPFvaiWQWIO9vLzmk0bXXBt17XXbeQNSHXnCtKp_rWcdZKM/w354-h400/EcofootprintPromo.jpeg" width="354" /></a></div>Last week Australia’s Southeastern coast area—New South Wales
near Sydney—upgraded its wildfire risk from “extremely dangerous” to
“catastrophic.” Even though there may be no nearby fires, the
catastrophic warning means schools and public offices have been closed
and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-19/extreme-fire-danger-far-south-coast-nsw-chools-closed/102872510" rel="">residents are urged to leave</a><span>. </span><p></p><p><span>Local residents don't require much urging. If the trauma of their 2019-2020 wildfire season is not fresh enough, they all saw </span><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/28/the-burning-of-maui" rel="">what happened in Maui.</a><span> The wildfire that broke out on Aug. 8, six weeks ago, </span><a href="https://revkin.substack.com/p/lessons-for-everyone-from-hawaiis?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email" rel="">scorched through the town of Lahaina</a><span>
at 60 miles per hour, reducing ten square miles of city to ash in mere
minutes. Only a month before, wildfire forced evacuation of Yellowknife,
the capital of Canada’s Northwest Territories.</span></p><div class="pullquote"><p></p><blockquote><i>Last
month a buoy in Manatee Bay, south of Miami, registered 101.1 degrees, a
reading that, as the Washington Post put it, is “more typical of a hot
tub than ocean water.”</i></blockquote><p></p><p style="text-align: right;"><span>— </span><a href="https://apple.news/AkMd2NHcUR1myU6ybkswbFw" rel="">Elizabeth Kolbert</a></p></div><p><span>Australia is surrounded by the </span><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-19/extreme-fire-danger-far-south-coast-nsw-chools-closed/102872510" rel="">hottest Southern Ocean ever recorded</a><span>. It is likely to reach 2.3 to 2.5 °C above average by the end of the year.</span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmoLsXEZPJFwW7E_plWVaMPrcUaokgy02XF0Ktz8Vnnl48bE1zaIZqrSlGYb5zFAX4bmVuEHyOypPzK-MlLeGAu5GcywnmsQNONrZsLHdonw4TUdnbuxXF6CaKOdySm2mfKRvAYO5FN_6NN4jOUM9f2ge89fHRYzQ-LDiEOinS1u9736yKxiUu5bKdLBNr/s629/cannibalism.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="204" data-original-width="629" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmoLsXEZPJFwW7E_plWVaMPrcUaokgy02XF0Ktz8Vnnl48bE1zaIZqrSlGYb5zFAX4bmVuEHyOypPzK-MlLeGAu5GcywnmsQNONrZsLHdonw4TUdnbuxXF6CaKOdySm2mfKRvAYO5FN_6NN4jOUM9f2ge89fHRYzQ-LDiEOinS1u9736yKxiUu5bKdLBNr/w400-h130/cannibalism.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><a href="https://www.mintecglobal.com/our-insight" rel="">Mintec Analytics</a><span>,
which delivers market prices and analysis for thousands of commodities,
food ingredients and associated materials to the world's largest food
and manufacturing brands says that “One of the most direct effects is
the increase in ocean temperatures, especially in the central-eastern
Pacific, [will be] disastrous impacts on the local fish populations.” </span><p></p><blockquote><p>Additionally,
due to the atmospheric changes during historic Very Strong El Niño
events, certain regions are likely to receive less rainfall than normal.
These regions include northern South America, South Africa, India,
Southeast Asia, and Australia. During these years, many high-value crops
were adversely affected by a lack of moisture, leading to reduced
growth and lower yields. As a result, supplies of palm oil and rice
drastically declined. </p></blockquote><p><span>The report also has dire
warnings for the Northern Hemisphere, where increases in extreme rain
events and flooding are likely to cause over-saturation, rotting, and
harvest delays in lower latitudes, as seen in </span><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/eight-catastrophic-floods-11-days-s-intense-rainfall-world-rcna104620" rel="">eight catastrophic floods in 11 days</a><span> this month, and heatwaves, droughts and wildfires at higher latitudes, as seen concurrently in Canada. </span></p><p>California
is particularly vulnerable to excessive winter rain during strong El
Niño years, which can reduce yields of vegetables and the flowering of
almonds, as the pollinating bees are less active.</p><p><span>The floods in California in January and February are among </span><a href="https://laist.com/news/climate-environment/2023-has-already-broken-the-us-record-for-billion-dollar-climate-disasters" rel="">23 climate disasters</a><span> that cost in excess of one billion dollars already this year in the U.S. and we still have three months to go. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyfwbVJVfjAkO2hQnV372jOKYpL8Wy2GWsP-wP2PIUeXLRhxsxnSeiXTr4ofHdu1eGT-Gt5TWYbRtTHiUx0QgAnM3F5csSiR9qL82rT8UPOqdL6J_FxLXNk66rYObdVEZ5mkOVqX3qV7LNRwv0WeKRTd8VL636pxO_3FSxTa_OffUU2tSKLwDyiE15R4T5/s808/billiondollardisasters.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="609" data-original-width="808" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyfwbVJVfjAkO2hQnV372jOKYpL8Wy2GWsP-wP2PIUeXLRhxsxnSeiXTr4ofHdu1eGT-Gt5TWYbRtTHiUx0QgAnM3F5csSiR9qL82rT8UPOqdL6J_FxLXNk66rYObdVEZ5mkOVqX3qV7LNRwv0WeKRTd8VL636pxO_3FSxTa_OffUU2tSKLwDyiE15R4T5/w640-h482/billiondollardisasters.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><span>Dave Borlach gave a very nice overview of the overheating ocean in two recent </span><a href="https://is.gd/QaZGqu" rel="">YouTube videos</a><span>, part of his </span><i>Just Have a Think</i><span>
series. In short, the ocean has been taking and storing about 80% of
the excess heat produced by greenhouse gas overload. This heat is
measured in zetajoules—one joule followed by 26 zeros. The 2021 increase
of 14 zetajoules was equal to exploding seven atomic bombs in the ocean
every second of every day for a year. The last IPCC report (AR6) said
the oceans absorbed 396 ZJ between 1971 and 2018. Since then, ocean heat
absorption has been in a curve of overheated acceleration. </span></p><div class="pullquote"><p><i></i></p><blockquote><i>We predict [for 2024] at least a 50 percent increase in the post-2010 global warming rate, compared to the 1970-2010 rate.</i></blockquote><p></p><p style="text-align: right;">—Hansen et al, September 14, 2023</p></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqZ9YY2xQ7V7xbxparPWlhKAbt-4EJKs21wAN_RFdvNqxayZsdROiuQAFVbAP1tPlYwztd9h-_HYgSIxsig5FqosC5LJ2DDKZLmYK25Ragxq7OjixEXpGtkYRjRBw2UICRrWnaTlVxOUqGL5xjlYcEl655jUnoLNFa4BizThnRbzPwnXvDRtuu1PMnygXc/s694/wheatexchanges.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="505" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqZ9YY2xQ7V7xbxparPWlhKAbt-4EJKs21wAN_RFdvNqxayZsdROiuQAFVbAP1tPlYwztd9h-_HYgSIxsig5FqosC5LJ2DDKZLmYK25Ragxq7OjixEXpGtkYRjRBw2UICRrWnaTlVxOUqGL5xjlYcEl655jUnoLNFa4BizThnRbzPwnXvDRtuu1PMnygXc/w291-h400/wheatexchanges.jpg" width="291" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><figure><figcaption class="image-caption"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00559-y/figures/1" rel="">Wheat trade 2018-19</a><span>
(pre-Covid and <br />war in Ukraine). The height of a block <br />is proportional
to the volume of wheat <br />exported or imported by the corresponding
<br />country, and the width of a stream field <br />is proportional to the volume
of wheat <br />traded between the two countries connected <br />by the stream field.</span></span></figcaption></figure></td></tr></tbody></table>While
here in Tennessee we have not been getting a lot of our food from
Australia, we nonetheless need to be concerned about global commodities.
To quote Dave Borlach, “If food becomes scarce then all sorts of really
very unpleasant consequences start kicking in.” It was not surprising
then that in a recent poll of our residents and two workshops, “growing
more of our own food” emerged as the first priority in a pretty long
list of how we should respond to climate change.</div><p></p><p><span>According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
we are well beyond the safe thresholds for six of nine boundary
prerequisites for human civilization. In several cases, such as polar
ice melt, we have </span><a href="https://grist.org/climate-tipping-points-amazon-greenland-boreal-forest/" rel="">passed tipping points</a><span> beyond which recovery is impossible for thousands of years. In others, we don’t exactly know where to find those points, but </span><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/six-of-nine-planetary-boundaries-now-exceeded-study/articleshow/103756143.cms" rel="">we could be at, near, or past</a><span> a number of them. </span></p><blockquote><p><span>"Over a fifth of ecosystems worldwide are in danger
of collapsing," said Professor Simon Willcock from Rothamsted and
Bangor University, who co-led the study published in </span><i>Nature Sustainability.</i></p><p>"However,
ongoing stresses and extreme events interact to accelerate rapid
changes that may well be out of our control. Once these reach a tipping
point, it's too late."</p><p>"Previous studies of ecological tipping
points suggest significant social and economic costs from the second
half of the 21st century onwards. Our findings suggest the potential for
these costs to occur much sooner," added co-author Professor John
Dearing, Emeritus Professor at the University of Southampton.</p></blockquote><p style="text-align: right;"><span>— </span><i>Phys Org,</i><span> </span><a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ecological-doom-loops-edging-closer.html" rel="">Ecological 'doom loops' edging closer, study warns</a><b>. </b><span>June 23, 2023 </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8rw1dxyzaHg9UOoR_ZCV_5jJHaZTWbDUUg9gZrkOSgUUb27jL2cram1Dbs0FKdt8uBgRFjxX8ScMD8YborTLlaDkhFyGzylcnUp1QwMzY6ZqJwT6IEMh7EOgwJNqTjNd2gwL5aBJ_gcDGmrBMOEHlOFuf25zFSJfcIeNDtXMbFEYCtI56CmcMD1JXvUlh/s2500/six-of-nine-planetary-1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="2500" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8rw1dxyzaHg9UOoR_ZCV_5jJHaZTWbDUUg9gZrkOSgUUb27jL2cram1Dbs0FKdt8uBgRFjxX8ScMD8YborTLlaDkhFyGzylcnUp1QwMzY6ZqJwT6IEMh7EOgwJNqTjNd2gwL5aBJ_gcDGmrBMOEHlOFuf25zFSJfcIeNDtXMbFEYCtI56CmcMD1JXvUlh/w640-h168/six-of-nine-planetary-1.jpg" width="640" /></a></b></div><b></b><p></p><p><b>The polling and workshops at The Farm</b><span>
are one part of a wider program by the Global Ecovillage Network, with
sponsorship by the Rasmussen Foundation, to formulate our recommended
strategies, coming from an ecovillage holistic viewpoint, to get larger
populations to adapt to and begin to mitigate the climate emergency. By
and large, there is no need among ecovillagers to waste time arguing
whether climate change is a Chinese hoax. We have an entire network of
ecovillages in China and they don’t think it is a Western hoax either.</span></p><p><span></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrm6UC29he5yrcX03bCFIgop-PwGUz3CMz_xIfbZ68IS8RkCUXWU5V0F-1aNI4Bnbbafbxd4j4xW-Xj69ie3Yvi_5OfewMjwn7BEg_OJ3mOGln_DTZ1lPbhaqS__3twdNItALyZpACkQLiRgZWEl84V3gxOKTORsXhB7eT4n5GZtQ0tWvhKVhKpL8QD5Vj/s468/Screenshot%202023-09-24%20at%2012.40.57%20PM.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="468" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrm6UC29he5yrcX03bCFIgop-PwGUz3CMz_xIfbZ68IS8RkCUXWU5V0F-1aNI4Bnbbafbxd4j4xW-Xj69ie3Yvi_5OfewMjwn7BEg_OJ3mOGln_DTZ1lPbhaqS__3twdNItALyZpACkQLiRgZWEl84V3gxOKTORsXhB7eT4n5GZtQ0tWvhKVhKpL8QD5Vj/s320/Screenshot%202023-09-24%20at%2012.40.57%20PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Hansen, et al: Global temperature
(relative to 1880-1920 mean <br />for each month) during the El Nino origin
year for the 1997-98, <br />2015-16 and 2023-24 El Ninos. The impact of El
Nino <br />on global temperature usually peaks early in the year <br />following the
year when the El Nino originated.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span>Many
intentional communities worldwide, including ecovillages and co-housing
communities, have explicit goals of living in an ecologically
regenerative manner, humans not apart, and are taking conscious steps
towards that in more or less </span><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13549839.2017.1348342" rel="">systematic frameworks and auditing processes</a><span>
developed over the past 30 years. Initiatives based on delocalization,
cultural diversity and social empowerment have an inherent advantage in
achieving what is being called decarbonization (although I prefer the
term “recarbonization”— meaning a fair and sustainable reallocation of
carbon cycle distribution). Scientists, economists, and politicians have
all noted the need for greater recognition of community-led initiatives
in reversing climate change from the bottom up.</span><p></p><p><span></span></p><blockquote><p><span>Everything becomes more controversial and political when we begin to discuss how to address the great challenges of our time, </span><i>e.g. </i><span>how
to achieve and maintain a safe global average temperature. At one
extreme is geoengineering and other technological fixes, attractive
because they require little change in the status quo, but also
fundamentally undemocratic and exclusionary (Sovacool 2021) and pose
enormous known and unknown risks (Bodansky 2013). At the other extreme
is the decarbonization of daily life of people all over the planet. This
alternative would require that people in different cultures and
socio-ecological systems create their own sustainable solutions adapted
to each context. There is no precedent for this type of change and no
single entity can control it, but ecovillages and other community-led
initiatives might be our best examples of efforts in this direction
(Daly 2017; Schäfer et al. 2018; Sherry 2019).</span></p><p style="text-align: center;">***</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT2TyGsZnqaXGbBhU-rQkkJg7EiOyBwBUaSH43iF7KIdM8VLSEcel84K-1zCjYGESkVSW2VP-E2Z-rqNf97DDcjb81Pr1Hx7HsmobnChNK_QBIvJ5oQRFbG5peysvAIEqefyrC9TdZt2y2gF7qL15woBzverfhleYit2P-OiUcrwDxSDTbu2lFGTGesXon/s1024/ipcc-report-cover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="725" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT2TyGsZnqaXGbBhU-rQkkJg7EiOyBwBUaSH43iF7KIdM8VLSEcel84K-1zCjYGESkVSW2VP-E2Z-rqNf97DDcjb81Pr1Hx7HsmobnChNK_QBIvJ5oQRFbG5peysvAIEqefyrC9TdZt2y2gF7qL15woBzverfhleYit2P-OiUcrwDxSDTbu2lFGTGesXon/s320/ipcc-report-cover.jpg" width="227" /></a></div><br />What is common among all these initiatives is that they
emerge from the bottom-up, are based on values of conviviality and
commons (Helfrich 2015), and they prefigure “their vision of a future
society through their ongoing social practices, social relations,
decision-making philosophy and culture” (Monticelli 2018, p. 509).<p></p><p style="text-align: center;">***</p><p>Many
problems we presently witness in the world are not caused by the lack
of technologies, but by people’s lack of capacity to live and work
together, to take on their share of responsibility, to collaborate, to
share resources and to co-create solutions with people from different
cultural backgrounds. Although ecovillages are not perfect, they are
experimenting and developing solutions in all these dimensions, and are
thus incubators of innovations and learnings.</p><p style="text-align: center;">***</p><p>…[E]covillages
can be regarded as incubators for other ways of being in a rapidly
changing world. They make efforts to embed regeneration in daily social
and cultural practices, and to create new models of well-being that are
not so much attached to economic growth and consumerism….</p></blockquote><p></p><p style="text-align: right;"><span>—Schwab and Roysen, </span><i>Nature Climate Action</i><span> (2022). </span></p><p>Here are the top 20 strategies our little ecovillage at The Farm has polled: <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI3Tjm3hZixDhNHuWHxEYGRSOhAzHsylv-p0CYwst2XHy0x6ev9qMb3BpZwJOyTz6CO6L4ap-YMnegUnlpG2ojSLVMUdGnOOsmyK4qfS-A6pMPOwNnXVi3VfCihUWr79paoerNMDqUx8m-kYlJ6eF9cj-qixG8k0u6mUJq9glLSVkiqK0zgPK-D5MkzbXc/s1334/eco-resilience%20table.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1334" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI3Tjm3hZixDhNHuWHxEYGRSOhAzHsylv-p0CYwst2XHy0x6ev9qMb3BpZwJOyTz6CO6L4ap-YMnegUnlpG2ojSLVMUdGnOOsmyK4qfS-A6pMPOwNnXVi3VfCihUWr79paoerNMDqUx8m-kYlJ6eF9cj-qixG8k0u6mUJq9glLSVkiqK0zgPK-D5MkzbXc/w360-h400/eco-resilience%20table.png" width="360" /></a></div><p></p><p>Based on the number of residents’ suggestions that fell into each category, our pie chart looks like this:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtLqTo9Tryf4v4ngyb3A70mMZ2mEo7pZwVpD389e-dQHL2EXIGQaHcBOBZNVy196wzIXYlb4O0rMovKjlqc_U0Rn5b32SUAveX8e8squ2ghtyGu4FfMuOB6hl8GoRQWnRc14-J1wQ6TmaSao8_RwGdTxFQkmzrZqpJ9Rfn9OunLPVas02U-jyzh8EYTpbr/s460/UnWeightedChart.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="460" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtLqTo9Tryf4v4ngyb3A70mMZ2mEo7pZwVpD389e-dQHL2EXIGQaHcBOBZNVy196wzIXYlb4O0rMovKjlqc_U0Rn5b32SUAveX8e8squ2ghtyGu4FfMuOB6hl8GoRQWnRc14-J1wQ6TmaSao8_RwGdTxFQkmzrZqpJ9Rfn9OunLPVas02U-jyzh8EYTpbr/s320/UnWeightedChart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> <p></p><p>Based on how people then voted their preferences, the weighted chart is this:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-ZlXVLaUkzogPfZS9TyaI4qiyGKqyB1_Z91jdlNnKsSOJuDC57QW-cKv8Hze4VAvOG7yYneEmAKpSH3u5lD7HTdzsY_wCcHd9pRRrQ17UE9-qSs4wbA0JzOgQWXaVy-dDs7vrF1tye-JsgcMc_iiVdbzwPP7lDltLdF3cPZx4h9NjCdhzCpTLhr0waot8/s840/WeightedChart.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="840" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-ZlXVLaUkzogPfZS9TyaI4qiyGKqyB1_Z91jdlNnKsSOJuDC57QW-cKv8Hze4VAvOG7yYneEmAKpSH3u5lD7HTdzsY_wCcHd9pRRrQ17UE9-qSs4wbA0JzOgQWXaVy-dDs7vrF1tye-JsgcMc_iiVdbzwPP7lDltLdF3cPZx4h9NjCdhzCpTLhr0waot8/w362-h310/WeightedChart.jpg" width="362" /></a></div><p></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6TDiQlKYRICW-kGt9krjFlDdnegheHN-n6Rf5KKwyNGGcEuBqjCMjp33cOHmhZQ0RSGCv_FEfeW9T5KO_l9byngWfei1qrv7k-jJQRkOrs1p6ZjzL1E-waSCvfaOvqDWtwaV1o-8q1ndPR0iy9ww5cbxwAgsNamB3BtRpYq8DfeA1jTmA9JjOrmdJKm9U/s888/problem-solving%20schematic.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="888" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6TDiQlKYRICW-kGt9krjFlDdnegheHN-n6Rf5KKwyNGGcEuBqjCMjp33cOHmhZQ0RSGCv_FEfeW9T5KO_l9byngWfei1qrv7k-jJQRkOrs1p6ZjzL1E-waSCvfaOvqDWtwaV1o-8q1ndPR0iy9ww5cbxwAgsNamB3BtRpYq8DfeA1jTmA9JjOrmdJKm9U/s320/problem-solving%20schematic.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Forests ranked high because we are a forested ecovillage and we
saw what happened in 2018 in California. The towns of Paradise and
Concow were almost completely destroyed, each losing about 95% of their
structures. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06391-z.epdf" rel="">Recent research</a><span>
has found that forests, such as in the tropics, can withstand up to a
3.9 ± 0.5 °C increase in air temperatures before hitting a tipping point
in metabolic function, auguring leaf death and tree death. We don’t
know where our temperate hardwood forest’s threshold lies. The carbon
cycle, water cycle and biodiversity are all interlinked. Deforestation
and fragmentation can amplify local temperature changes which then bring
on more deforestation and fragmentation.</span><p></p><p>Within our
ecovillage now, there are committees being formed, action plans being
brainstormed, budgets being calculated, and recruitment of talent. Each
month there are virtual get-togethers between delegates from 20
ecovillages around the world that are part of the process. </p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK8cyZh5C69UniCsfwikaK36YzdJwMxrtfmf-5OjKGWpq6yAbfvTD0On1BpjMFg7Ed9cHa6LSuFAnt_hO9Xhgohly_vW8k87Pyz_w4e8gYsjrCUEhHEj6Hg3X_VFpX0zWaVMD5OGBj6JBAkMNtDhPM15uPGdArWJHyxpW5mzscBCHA9VnM_VbtiHMPOvdX/s1022/learningcycle.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1022" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK8cyZh5C69UniCsfwikaK36YzdJwMxrtfmf-5OjKGWpq6yAbfvTD0On1BpjMFg7Ed9cHa6LSuFAnt_hO9Xhgohly_vW8k87Pyz_w4e8gYsjrCUEhHEj6Hg3X_VFpX0zWaVMD5OGBj6JBAkMNtDhPM15uPGdArWJHyxpW5mzscBCHA9VnM_VbtiHMPOvdX/s320/learningcycle.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Credit the Biden Administration and Nancy Pelosi, who managed to pass over strong opposition the <i>2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</i><span>. It included nearly $50 billion for climate resilience projects. Then the </span><i>2022 Inflation Reduction Act</i><span>
added several billion more, including $2.6 billion for coastal
communities, $235 million for tribes, and $25 million for Native
Hawaiians. Still, twenty-three separate billion-dollar-plus disasters
this year necessitated a supplemental $16 billion additional funding
request for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). That,
unfortunately, is now on the chopping block in order to avert a
threatened government shutdown. When the next disaster strikes, FEMA may
be AWOL.</span><p></p><p>The US is cutting off its nose to spite its face. </p><p>Ecovillages abide. But they are not islands. Across Europe and into
Southwest Asia, migrants have been arriving to ecovillages, swelling
beleaguered populations with needy paupers, sometimes productive,
sometimes aged, infirm or disabled. Up to 1400 Ukrainians (around 200
children) escape to Western ecovillages along the Green Road each month.
African migrants are now tugging at the heartstrings of the Italian
ecovillage network, RIVE.</p><p>The world is being re-ordered. It is all
well and good to wish for bygone days, and many social conservatives
would, but we are at a crossroads now. It is a moment of choice. We may
be the final generation of humans but we could still evolve into the
first generation of eco-humans.</p><h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget"><i>References <br /></i><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§references"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/137357882/references"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span> </span></span></div><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/i/137357882/references"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><span>Bodansky D., The who, what, and wherefore of geoengineering governance. </span><i>Clim Chang</i><span> 121(3) (2013):539–551. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0759-7</span></span></div></div></div></h3><p><span>Cheng, Lijing, et al. "Another record: ocean warming continues through 2021 despite La Niña conditions." </span><i><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-022-1461-3" rel="">Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 39.3</a></i><span> (2022): 373-385. </span></p><p><span>Daly,
Matthew. "Quantifying the environmental impact of ecovillages and
co-housing communities: a systematic literature review." </span><i>Local Environment</i><span> 22.11 (2017): 1358-1377.</span></p><p><span>Eds., Ecological 'doom loops' edging closer, study warns, </span><i><a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ecological-doom-loops-edging-closer.html" rel="">Phys.org</a></i><span> (2023, June 23).</span></p><p><span>Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, and Leon Simons, </span><a href="https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/FlyingBlind.14September2023.pdf" rel="">Global Warming is Accelerating. Why? Will We Fly Blind?</a><span> (14 Sep 2023).</span></p><p><span>Hedlund, Johanna, et al, Impacts of climate change on global food trade networks, </span><i>Environ. Res. Lett.</i><span> 17 124040 (9 December 2022). DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aca68b</span></p><p><span>Helfrich S (2015) </span><i>Die Welt der Commons: Muster gemeinsamen Handelns. </i><span>Transcript Verlag.</span></p><p><span>Miller, Riel. </span><i>Transforming the future: Anticipation in the 21st century. </i><span>Taylor & Francis, 2018.</span></p><p><span>Monticelli L (2018) </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.31269/triplec.v16i2.1032" rel="">Embodying alternatives to capitalism in the 21st century</a><span>. </span><i>TripleC</i><span> 16(2):501–517. </span></p><p><span>Schäfer M, Hielscher S, Haas W, Hausknost D, Leitner M, Kunze I, Mandl S (2018) </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su10041047" rel="">Facilitating low-carbon living? A comparison of intervention measures in different community-based initiatives.</a><span> </span><i>Sustainability</i><span> (Switzerland) 10(4):1–23. </span></p><p><span>Schwab, Anne-Kathrin, and Rebeca Roysen. "Ecovillages and other community-led initiatives as experiences of climate action." </span><i>Climate Action</i><span> 1.1 (2022): 12.</span></p><p><span>Sherry J (2019) </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117830" rel="">The impact of community sustainability: a life cycle assessment of three ecovillages.</a><span> </span><i>J Clean Prod</i><span> 237(117830):1–13. </span></p><p><span>Sovacool BK (2021) </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.101916" rel="">Who are the victims of low-carbon transitions? Towards a political ecology of climate change mitigation.</a><span> </span><i>Energy Res Soc Sci,</i><span> 73(101916). </span></p><p><span>Tuomi, I. (2017). Ontological Expansion. In R. Poli (Ed.), </span><i>Handbook of Anticipation: Theoretical and Applied Aspects of the Use of the Future in Decision Making.</i><span> Cham: Springer Publishing.</span></p><p><span>Willcock, S. et al, Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers, </span><i>Nature Sustainability</i><span> (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01157-x</span></p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFqkOQ_OXZZ9nq6t24pc5JmSYiZruaj7Ts5geuRBzcUdhDRHUd1nZOoUyWq4Ny_Zprf9psvsEPKjjr2UtoefjfRsq_QOXRYSze_f7cxP6goy7Rx9Rj4Uc5Sg0tSuv-pQi794-hBIi1RV5JpMu0SKrx_6_aU1RHOSHRCEkPYrwplqlvO1OPio_v904ptFBd/s1920/2023-06-08-maksym-zalevskiy_n.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1440" data-original-width="1920" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFqkOQ_OXZZ9nq6t24pc5JmSYiZruaj7Ts5geuRBzcUdhDRHUd1nZOoUyWq4Ny_Zprf9psvsEPKjjr2UtoefjfRsq_QOXRYSze_f7cxP6goy7Rx9Rj4Uc5Sg0tSuv-pQi794-hBIi1RV5JpMu0SKrx_6_aU1RHOSHRCEkPYrwplqlvO1OPio_v904ptFBd/s320/2023-06-08-maksym-zalevskiy_n.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p><b>Meanwhile, let’s end this war.</b><span> Towns,
villages, and cities in Ukraine are being bombed every day. Ecovillages
and permaculture farms have organized something like an underground
railroad to shelter families fleeing the cities, either on a long-term
basis or temporarily, as people wait for the best moments to cross the
border to a safer place or to return to their homes if that becomes
possible. There are 70 sites in Ukraine and 500 around the region. As
you read this, 40 Ukrainian ecovillages and 300 in Europe have given
shelter to thousands of adults and children and are receiving up to 1400
persons (around 200 children) each month. We call our project “The
Green Road.”</span></p><p>For most of the children refugees, this will
be their first experience in ecovillage living. They will directly
experience its wonders, skills, and safety. They may never want to go
back. Those who do will carry the seeds within them of the better world
they glimpsed through the eyes of a child.</p><p><span>Those wishing to make a tax-deductible gift can do so through Global Village Institute by going to </span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/#" rel="">http://PayPal.me/greenroad2022</a><span> or by directing donations to greenroad@thefarm.org.</span></p><p><span>There is more info on the Global Village Institute website at </span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/#" rel="">https://www.gvix.org/greenroad</a><span> or you can listen to this </span><a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="">NPR Podcast </a><span>and read these recent articles in </span><i><a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/02/the-surprising-communities-thriving-in-the-time-of-war/" rel="">Mother Jones</a><span> </span></i><span>and </span><i><a href="https://theworld.org/stories/2023-07-18/green-road-leads-displaced-ukrainians-shelter-ecovillages" rel="">The World</a></i><span>. Thank you for your help.</span></p><div><hr /></div><p><b>The COVID-19 pandemic</b><span>
destroyed lives, livelihoods, and economies. But it has not slowed
climate change, a juggernaut threat to all life, humans included. We had
a trial run at emergency problem-solving on a global scale with COVID —
and we failed. 6.95 million people, and counting, have died. (</span><span><i>The Economist</i> estimates the real figure is
probably twenty to thirty million, if excess deaths are included. This
also ignores the numbers of injured with long Covid and other
complications who likely will have shortened lifespans from their
infections.)</span><span> We ignored
well-laid plans to isolate and contact trace early cases; overloaded
our ICUs; parked morgue trucks on the streets; and incinerated bodies
until the smoke obscured our cities as much as the raging wildfires. The
modern world took a masterclass in how abysmally, unbelievably,
shockingly bad we could fail, despite our amazing science, vast wealth,
and singular talents as a species.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSheKjw330KNPk0tNYtAZO6kgk-HcasnhJbyKfJPiT2UEzqRo8ATYThA7mDTANHIgDitVUaKzZ1iRXt-tMVkp-898TrU-cRogkf7rQClgqs5oP9nhwgr-rEJpcjyZCXHGsh5hcubZMCHVwPNtdfB1DtDOFoViYWkPrTANuL5n5qHxW1y95djhrg75fLkj9/s156/SmallcolorQR.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="156" data-original-width="156" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSheKjw330KNPk0tNYtAZO6kgk-HcasnhJbyKfJPiT2UEzqRo8ATYThA7mDTANHIgDitVUaKzZ1iRXt-tMVkp-898TrU-cRogkf7rQClgqs5oP9nhwgr-rEJpcjyZCXHGsh5hcubZMCHVwPNtdfB1DtDOFoViYWkPrTANuL5n5qHxW1y95djhrg75fLkj9/s1600/SmallcolorQR.jpg" width="156" /></a></div>Having failed so
dramatically, so convincingly, with such breathtaking ineptitude, do we
imagine we will now do better with climate? Having demonstrated such
extreme disorientation in the face of a few simple strands of RNA, do we
imagine we can call upon some magic power that will arrest all our
planetary-ecosystem-destroying activities?<p></p><p>As the world enters a
new phase of the pandemic, there is growing recognition that we must
learn to do better. We must chart a pathway to a new carbon economy that
goes beyond zero emissions and runs the industrial carbon cycle
backward — taking CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean, turning it into
coal and oil, and burying it in the ground. The triple bottom line of
this new economy is antifragility, regeneration, and resilience. We must
lead by good examples; carrots, not sticks; ecovillages, not carbon
indulgences. We must attract a broad swath of people to this work by
honoring it, rewarding it, and making it fun. That is our challenge now.</p><p><i>Help me get my blog posted every week. All Patreon donations and
Blogger or Substack subscriptions are needed and welcomed. You are how
we make this happen. Your contributions are being made to Global Village
Institute, a tax-deductible 501(c)(3) charity. PowerUp! donors on
Patreon get an autographed book off each first press run. Please help if
you can.</i></p><p><span>Thank you for reading </span><i>The Great Change.</i></p><p>
</p><blockquote>
</blockquote>Albert Bateshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17627996921976501534noreply@blogger.com0